Brownie19

I don't disagree with that at all. I'm just saying it's been 2 games (not 3, my bad) that Vlad has played at 3rd. I fully agree that if they are going to play Vlad at 3rd regularly moving forward, that added Horwitz to the starting lineup, to see what he is, would be a good idea. I'm just not going to get all worked up when they don't do that immediately. The team hasn't yet given up on this season (which they probably shouldn't, even if there's only a 15% chance of turning it around). Once they do wave the white flag, I fully expect we'll see more minor league guys given an extended look.

Great point Tim. The O's fixed him in 11 games in AAA before calling him up. Oh and his production in those 11 games (175 wRC+) was actually worse than his last stint in AAA with the Royals (251 wRC+ in 19 games)

Yes - 3 of the 4 runs were generally tied to payroll. 2020-2024 (19th, 11th, 10th, 6th) 2014-2017 (10th, 10th, 10th, 5th) 2005-2008 (25th, 16th, 16th, 13th) 1990-1993 (13th, 9th, 3rd, 1st) I don't think the Jays spending more money during their contention window is overly surprising.

Sorry - I should have been more clear that I don't think we'll be a playoff team until 2030. We could certainly be back to some winning records before then.

The Jays have done this for like 3 games man. Perhaps they want to see how Vlad looks at 3rd before they call up Horwitz? Don't forget the O's created playing time for Ryan O'Hearn, who's like 30 and was a career minor leaguer.

I was thinking most of this when I read the original post. AA was a loophole master (to his credit). I also question how much credit a GM should get for drafting say Kevin Pillar. He was taken 979th overall. Every GM is just throwing s*** against the wall at that point. Was AA's develop program so incredible that it allowed Pillar to become a ML starter? I suspect the work that Pillar put in on his own and during the offseason was the primary reason he made it. I'm not sure the instruction he received from Jays minor league staff was tangibly better than he would have received from any other minor league system. It's certainly not like the Jays minor league staff would have been focused on ensuring the 32nd round pick was getting the attention he deserved. I still find it incredible just how much the draft is a crapshoot. You'd think the entire league would be getting better at this now that more accurate information is available, but I'm not so sure that's true (maybe it is?). Reminds me of the Moneyball scene where Beane fires Head Scout Grady "You can't look at a kid and predict his future and more than I can. I've sat at this kitchen tables with you when you tell parents, when I know, I know and when it comes to your son, I know.....and you don't. Has any publication done any type of deep dive into drafting to see if any GM/team has a sustained advantage over other teams? I do wonder if it's kind of like a players success with RISP. Some players will go through good stretches with RISP, but MOST players are unable to sustain success year after year, which suggests it's a lot more luck than it is skill. I do wonder if it's similar for GMs/teams.

Keep making s*** up bud.

I went to Camden Yards to see a game back in 2017 or 2018 with a group of guys. Loved the park - it was incredible, but I remember thinking how sad it was that the place was almost empty. I was recently thinking about how much more fun it would be to go watch the O's play now, given they're coming off a 100+ win season and on pace for another this year. I just saw a stat they still only average 25K fans, which is 56% of capacity. It is up 26% from last year, but still rather grim. Hopefully the shithole that is Baltimore starts to support their new dynasty and fills that gorgeous ballpark. It sad that Pittsburgh's attendance is also s***, but more justified by a cheap owner and middling team. The dome is still on average 83% full these days (albeit that is dropping).

I'll do this because I know Jays24 can't do math. Here is the W/L record and winning % for the best 4 year stretches the team has had since 1993 2020-2024 304 W 242 L 0.557% 2014-2017 341 W 307 L 0.526% 2005-2008 336 W 312 L 0.518% 1990-1993 368 W 280 L 0.568% So - unequivocally, this recent stretch by the Jays is THE BEST 4 year run since 1990-1993. Did the team win in the playoffs? No they did not, but whether you like it or not, winning in the playoffs is almost a coin flip (which I know is a VERY difficult concept for lots of fans and people on this board) and the Jays were favored to win 2 of our 3 playoff series during that stretch. However, it is pretty clear this regime has been successful since they arrived in 2016. Is that success coming to an end? Yes, I think it probably is and we'll now go into a downturn until around 2030. This is a very typical cycle for MLB teams. It's the reality of being a fan of most MLB teams.

With age comes memory loss If you've been a Jays fan that long, you've seen and been through teams that were SIGNIFICANTLY worse. This team has done lots of winning over the past 4 1/2 years. This stretch is one of their best since the 1993 season.

That would be a new approach. Bat Vlad twice. I wonder if they'd notice?

Change is difficult for most as they age. I'm really starting to feel that myself. I'm not sure baseball or the world were actually better 25 years ago, nor am I interested in debating that with you. However, a stable lineup actually could hurt the team further. If it actually provided all kinds of advantages, then everyone would do it. That's the easiest way to look at it.

That seems about right to me.

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2922351/mlb-hands-marcano-lifetime-ban-for-betting Tucupita Marcano has been banned for life for violating MLB's gambling policy, the league announced Tuesday. Oakland Athletics reliever Michael Kelly and minor leaguers Jay Groome (Padres), José Rodríguez (Philadelphia Phillies), and Andrew Saalfrank (Arizona Diamondbacks) were also handed one-year suspensions for betting. MLB discovered that Marcano placed 387 baseball bets, including 231 MLB-related wagers through a legal sportsbook between 2022-23. The 24-year-old also made 25 bets on the Pittsburgh Pirates while he was a member of the team last year. However, he never played in the games on which he bet after suffering a season-ending ACL injury in July 2023. The league said Marcano bet more than $150,000 on baseball, with $87,319 of that on MLB-related wagers. Most of his MLB bets were parlays, and he won only 4.3% of them. The Padres claimed Marcano off waivers in November, but he hasn't suited up in a game for their organization since being acquired. He also hasn't appeared in a major-league game since his knee injury. Meanwhile, Kelly was a minor leaguer with the Astros when he placed 10 bets involving nine MLB games, including three Houston contests, in October 2021, according to the league's investigation. The 31-year-old bet a total of $99.22 and had a net profit of $28.30 after winning five wagers. He didn't take part in any of the contests he gambled on and didn't bet on any minor-league teams he was assigned to. MLB's inquiry found that Groome made 32 league-related bets while he was a member of the Boston Red Sox organization in 2020-21, that Rodríguez placed 28 major-league wagers between 2021-22 when he was part of the Chicago White Sox minor-league system, and that Saalfrank recorded 28 MLB-related bets during his time in the Diamondbacks' system across 2021-22. All three players gambled on the Red Sox, White Sox, and Diamondbacks. Groome had a net loss of $433.54 out of the $453.74 he bet, Rodríguez bet a total of $724.09 on MLB-related wagers, and Saalfrank put in $444.07 and lost $272.64, according to the league, who added that the minor leaguers didn't appear in any of the contests they bet on and didn't make bets involving their assigned affiliate clubs. --------------------------------------------- 1 year ban for betting <$100 is pretty sad. Sports gambling is obviously way more accessible than it's ever been. I suspect there are lots more players who bet on sports occasionally. You just can't be stupid enough to leave a paper trail connected to yourself. Looks like the league is using this to set and example.

This is 100% false. Good news is teams can still win, even with imperfect managers (because managers don't actually have a huge impact on results). Your claim is a consistent lineup will produce better than one that is constantly changing to suit matchups and to provide certain players with rest. It's interesting you use Cito as an example, give he did implement platoon situations (back when they were a lot less common). Nevertheless, what are you basing this claim on? Is there an article you read that analyzed this? or is this just a gut feeling, based off how managers/teams used to play baseball 25 years ago? I'm not sure I've seen any analysis done on this, but I do believe most MLB teams have moved away from strict/set lineups - which tells me it's not true in most cases. My gut says some players do prefer to consistently hit in the same spot/role on a daily basis and for other players, it doesn't matter one bit to them (and then there's the debate whether how they feel about it actually impacts their results). It's probably up to each manager to understand his players and develop strategies accordingly. I highly doubt a one size fits all approach is the way to go.

Yeah - I'd tend to agree with that.

Still - that plan would have worked some percentage of the time. I believe Fangraphs suggested we had a 50% chance of making the playoffs at the start of the year. Zips had us as an 88 win team, with a 63% chance of making the playoffs. So if you objectively look at this (which is difficult to do these days), even if people complain the FO didn't do enough, the stats suggest they weren't in an awful position to start the year and would have opportunities to make adjustments in season (much like Texas did last year and won the WS). What % of the time do we think this plan would have worked? Nobody can sit here and say it was 0%. It clearly wasn't super low if we were projected chance to make the playoffs was 50%-63%. You know which other teams seemingly failed miserably this year: - Houston - TB - St. Louis - Arizona - SF - Texas Lots of teams, even good organizations fail every year. AA said the other day on the FAN, when asked why his team wasn't hitting HRs at anywhere near the same pace as last year...his response was "if I knew the answer to that, we'd have fixed it by now", which I think goes to illustrate there's a ton of s*** that is outside of their control. I believe Atkins will be gone at the end of the year. I hope we find a better alternative, but I'm not sold we will. However, I didn't have a huge issue with their approach to roll this team back out there this year to see what happens. We were 7th in MLB in wRC+ last year and it's reasonable to expect your young core, who are in their mid 20's will take steps forward. I'm certainly glad we aren't employing Jorge Soler right now in response to our "need for power" (let's put him in there instead of cherry picking Teo). Alas, it isn't working at all for whatever reason. I'm not going to pretend I know what factors (and there will be several) have caused the failure, but unfortunately the Vlad/Bo era didn't work out as well as most had hoped. That's life.

Lots of really stupid players round 3rd and make it to home at a normal angle.

The Dodgers paid Teo $23M who projected for 1.7 WAR and Heyward $9M who projected for 0.8 WAR. Where are you getting that 2 WAR players were signing for $2M? Amed Roserio and Gio Urshela were the only 2 players projected to for 1+ WAR that got less than $4.5M. Also, we've been through this a lot. The FO banked on their top players performing to their abilities and added the FA's they did to supplement those players and improve depth. It failed miserably as Bo, Springer, Kirk, Manoah, Vlad (to an extent) and essentially the entire bullpen s*** the bed. The question is probably, what was the probability this approach succeeded and what success rate was suitable to justify taking this path. I'd suggest this plan may have worked 40% of the time, noting we entered the year with a 50% chance of making the playoffs. I think that probability of making the playoffs was high enough to justify the approach taken. Unfortunately, it didn't work.

I didn't see the whole play - is there a reason he was approaching home plate from that angle? It looked like he just rounded the mound and headed for home.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jordan-hicks/19618/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2022&end=2024&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=SI&ymin=&ymax= Sure is. The next plan for Jordan Hicks is probably TJS unfortunately.

There are all kinds of logical reasons why Jansen isn't extended yet. - never played in more than 86 games over the past 4 years - 30+ year old catchers typically don't age that well and would be amplified by his injury history - career 107 wRC+ bat and prior to this year, you'd have a hard time forcing his way into the lineup anywhere else except for catcher (except for 250 PA's in 2022) - he may have no interest in signing an extension and/or has told the team he'd rather bet on himself, knowing his extension would be subdued due to all his partial seasons played (ie, he knew if he could stay healthy for a full season, he'd get more on the open market). - Kirk (and/or Moreno) were previously viewed as the catcher of the future, potentially with more upside. If we have 2022 Kirk, do you want Jansen getting paid to be the backup catcher? I mean take your pick, or combine a few of these together.

We could have signed Ohtani and still sucked balls guys.

It's almost like sometimes, it's out of the GM's control to some extent. Unless you're Baltimore. Those f***ers have unlocked something. In 2 horrible draft classes (2018 & 2020), they walk away with Grayson Rodriquez, Westburg, Heston Kjerstad and Mayo. Kjerstad was essentially injured for 2 years after being drafted and still might be one of the only studs to come out of the 1st round. Then when they do have the #1 overall pick, Rutschman and Holliday are in the draft. How much of that is luck and how much is skill? Anyone want to try and tackle that one?

Sounds like Detriot is going to option Tork to the minors. How s***** is it to have two #1 picks and end up with Tork and Mize. Ouch.