glory

I'm not sure what Imai will look like at the big league level, but I think with Bieber back in the fold, the Jays can afford to take a chance on upside now. The "grizzled vets who eat up innings over 162" have value, but as we saw with Yesavage in the playoffs, you really need to add impact where you can. If they feel Imai has that potential, then go for it. The added benefit is that it won't cost a pick like Cease, Suarez, Valdez, and King. Of course, the Jays adding an impact player from Japan is something I'd actually have to see to believe. Maybe the World Series run (which got a lot of viewers in Japan too) created some awareness with the Japanese market.

Hopefully he is being genuine, and this is not just stalling until he teams up with Shohei. Even if he doesn't sign with the Jays, sign anywhere other than the Dodgers. My guess is the Giants would make the most sense for him given the West Coast, a team with money to spend, and wanting to beat the Dodgers, but hopefully Boss Atkins can work his magic.

Yeah I think I read Gimenez has a $19M tax hit (give or take) for the Jays even though he made $10M last season and will be $15M this coming season due to the CBT hit being recalculated after a trade. I'm guessing Berrios if traded will go to a $22M CBT hit (18-24-24) but not sure how it works when it comes to player options. The only guaranteed year he has left is 2026 for $18M so maybe that's all it goes off. He doesn't have a buyout so that's not going to be factored in. Maybe Berrios + something for Severino would make some sense but I doubt the A's would want to take on an extra year at $24M. Hard to find something that makes sense for both sides, but if Berrios is tradeable even in a Nimmo/Semien sort of way (contract swap) then I think they should go for it.

Yeah this probably hurts the Jays a bit if it opens up the OF market for the Mets. Of course the GM of the Mets is Stearns who usually prefers the less sexy (i.e. less expensive) splashes with a chance to overshoot their financial commitment. Soto was a Cohen move. Not sure if Tucker will be considered the same.

Berrios has a player option after 2026 at 2/48 that could rise based on innings pitched this coming season. I think he’s unmovable if you’re looking for a pure salary dump. A bad contract swap is probably their best shot.

As far as Bellinger, I could see Atkins being interested (CF depth in case Varsho leaves, defensive versatility, low K%, contact, power, LHB), but it would be pretty underwhelming for what it would cost. Tucker is more of a difference maker offensively, and I think I'd bet on that more than defensive versatility. Obviously there will be a significant cost difference though.

I'm sure Atkins regrets the Santander contract but unless he's completely toast after his shoulder injury, I think he can easily bounce back to be a ~2 WAR, 30+ HR hitter next season. Having a healthy Tony in the lineup in the playoffs instead of Lukes would have been a very noticeable difference. Home runs are difference makers. Unfortunately he got hurt, was allowed to play hurt for weeks, and then basically missed the rest of the season. Just have to write it off and hope for a bounce back next season. With that said, if a team came up to Atkins this winter and said "we'll take the whole contract", I wonder what Ross would do.

Impossible to know what would have happened, but a scenario where the Pirates don't release IKF and the Jays simply go with Leo Jimenez in September/October is a bigger 'what if' for me than Game 7. This team gave IKF 40 (!) post season plate appearances where he had a wRC+ of 7 (!!). If Jimenez was on the bench instead then they never would have played him and probably (kicking and screaming) would have put DS at 2B most of those games and maybe he runs into 1 or 2. It was absolutely infuriating to look forward to a playoff game but also cringe at the same time anticipating seeing IKF's name in the lineup. So while the Hoffman HR to Rojas destroyed a part of me, I'm perfectly fine with any IKF slander.

50-24 (+26) That was the Jays run differential if you added up all the scores at the time Hoffman entered the game in the post season. He had exactly 3 high leverage situations with the Jays leading (by 3 runs or less) or the game tied. He did well in 2 of them (ALCS Game 7 and WS Game 3), but failed in Game 7 of the WS. Beyond that, the rest of his appearances were almost entirely low leverage. I'm not suggesting that's good or bad, just the reality of his appearances. The Jays were probably much better off without having to count on him in higher leverage spots as often. You can't put all the blame on anyone. Bad luck happens, bad calls happen, and "game of inches" stuff happens. With that said, giving up a HR to Miguel Rojas in that spot is insane. Imagine if the roles were reversed and Sasaki/Yamamoto/Snell/whoever gave up a game tying HR to IKF or Straw. IKF has like a 30 wRC+ against LHP, so imagine if Snell gave up a bomb to him in the 9th. That's going to sting more than anything else. The Jays used their best pinch runner in the previous inning (Straw) so IKF was all they had to pinch run for Bo. Can't really do much there. Hoffman giving up a HR to a dude who'd have trouble hitting a HR against RHP if the ball was being underhanded to him all season is a different story. TLDR; get a closer to replace Hoffman in 2026.

I think I see both sides of the argument. I hate how slow baseball off seasons are, but if everything happened in the first week of November and then radio silence until February when pitchers and catchers reported, then not sure that would be any more fun than the current set up. In a non salary cap league there is no fair way to create a signing window so you kinda just have to live with this unless a cap is instituted. The one good thing about how bad baseball off seasons are is that a lockout next winter (as long as it doesn't bleed into the regular season) is probably going to be unnoticeable. It's been 18 days since Game 7 of the World Series and we've had one big signing (Naylor) and one reasonably sized trade (Rodriguez/Ward). We probably won't see any real action until early to mid December.

Tiedemann added to the 40 man roster.

All the players who accepted are pretty flawed in varying ways (Woodruff with injury, Shota with performance, Grisham with track record, and Gleyber while young is not the type to lose a pick for). It could mean the market won’t be friendly to players this winter but I don’t think this necessarily proves that.

A 1 year deal for Grisham coming off the season he had isn't terrible, but the issue for the Yankees is that Hal Steinbrenner is not George. They have a limit to what they can spend. This likely will hurt them to some degree this winter.

From Jeff Passan's latest article: "The Blue Jays, coming off their first World Series berth in more than three decades, have no plans to slow down. They are considered the favorite by other executives to land Tucker." Passan is the most reputable MLB guy, so this has a bit more credence than if the usual BS artists (Trollosi, Heyman, etc) said it, but still, take it for what it is.

Yeah I think they will get someone who can realistically be the closer next season, either aiming super high (Diaz, Williams, Suarez) or Iglesias/Helsley/etc types. From May 1 to the end of the regular season, Hoffman had a -1.1 WAR with a 5.95 FIP, 4.44 BB/9, and the 2nd worst HR/FB rate in baseball for relievers (behind known stud Ryan Rolison) in 53 IP. Rojas has a career 79 wRC+ against RHP, and in 2025 it was 67 with 1 HR. I don't disagree that Hoff might be better in 2026, but I don't think the Jays use him in the closer spot again. Maybe that's me wishing more than anything else. The next time I see that man come into a game in the 9th inning wearing a Jays uniform the score better be 15-1.

One thing that needs to be factored in is how much money the Jays actually have to spend this winter. We are assuming Rogers is willing to go near the Cohen Tax due to how 2025 turned out, but that's not a certainty. If they can only afford one gigantic FA splash, then I think the rotation is the much bigger need. The 2027 rotation as of now is Yesavage and Berrios. The Jays will be losing Springer and Varsho after 2026, and Gausman and Bieber in the rotation. It doesn't appear like they have anything internally that can replace those guys at the moment (things can obviously change depending how 2026 goes for the farm system). Overpaying a SP (Cease, Imai) and then trading for Donovan ($5.4M Arb 2 projection, 3.0 fWAR 2026 projection from Steamer) might be the type of off season that makes more sense.

I could end up being wrong but I think Tucker is going to get a lot less than people think, especially if the Dodgers are lukewarm for him. How many big spending teams will be seriously in on him? I think the Yankees are focusing more on Bellinger, and the Dodgers don't need him (especially since their best prospects are OF’s). Phillies, Giants and Jays might be the realistic market. I can’t think of any other big spenders that would overpay for him, and Phillies might focus more on Schwarber. Of course all it takes is one desperate team. Curious to see how it shakes out. Since it’s the MLB off season, we will have to wait another 2 months before we see the results.

Clement is a ~95 wRC+ player who can play great defense at 2B/SS/3B, and he's also 30 years old. I think he has more value to the Jays given their the competitive window than he does in a trade.

If this is the move they make 2 months from now then it is what it is, but this soon when the market hasn’t been established yet would be disappointing. Aim higher. Settle when you have no choice.

Yeah Diaz going back to the Mets probably makes the most sense. Losing a pick and spending huge money on a closer is probably not something most teams will have the appetite for. The Jays have the combination of need, money, and possibly desperation given how bad their closer situation was in 2025 (cost them a title), so maybe it's something they'd be willing to do, but realistically if they are in on Tucker/Bo and the higher end SP's, then not sure they'd want to allocate that much to a closer. But if you're looking at a realistic Diaz market, the Jays are likely there. I don't think there will be many teams in that market (realistically).

If the Jays are trading Varsho (don't think they will), then they'd have to have someone a lot better than Straw in CF. If Lukes could play a passable CF then that would make more sense, or maybe try for a follow up trade for Buxton (he has a NTC so probably not likely). If Varsho is a Boras guy then they might be better off just using him in 2026, hoping for a big year, and then qualifying him after the season. Who knows what the new CBA will be after that.