glory

So the Jays lose their 2nd and 5th highest picks with this signing (plus $1M in international money). If they sign Tucker, then I think they lose their 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 6th highest picks, though they'd gain one back when Bo signs elsewhere in that scenario. Tucker might be the only other qualified FA they go after anyway. I doubt they are in the SP market anymore, and I doubt they are in on Diaz. One of Bo or Tucker, and then one of Suarez (Robert), Helsley, Williams, etc, for the bullpen.

Deferrals make it interesting. That's going to lower the AAV and CBT hit, which could give them more room to work with depending on what it comes out to. I do think the timing makes the team more appealing to other FA's. Curious to see how the rest of the winter looks. I think one of Tucker or Bo is very realistic.

It's definitely an overpay in years, but in free agency you either go one year more than you're comfortable with or you lose the player. The Jays wanted the player. Cost of doing business. Cease has 5 straight seasons of at least 32 starts so he fits with the Jays love of durability (with the caveat that pitchers can break at any time), and there's real front of the rotation stuff there. This is definitely their hope for Gausman part II. Certainly pitching in front of the Jays defense should help him a lot.

Jays sign Cease. 7/210. Wow.

Rendon in the 3 seasons prior to signing with the Angels (2017-19): 1848 PA, 18.1 WAR, 145 wRC+, .390 xwOBA, 11.9 BB%, 13.5 K%, +11 OAA/+22 DRS at 3B, Ages 27-29 It's easy to rag on the Angels, but Rendon looked about as much of a sure thing as you can get. He just happened to be one of the rare players who got the bag and then unapologetically quit on the team. There are players who decline after signing a big contract. Rendon had a combination of injuries and not giving a s*** anymore.

"Blue Jays are one of a handful of teams that have checked in on (insert Free Agent or trade target)" happens every year with Trollosi. It's usually followed by a spot on a Toronto radio show. I'm sure the Jays have checked in on Marte, but Morosi is just doing his usual off-season nonsense to get whatever engagement he can from the few people who still view him as credible. How he survived Ohtani-gate still baffles me.

Realistically I don't think the Jays have the prospects to get that type of deal done. They won't trade Yesavage obviously, and Nimmala took a step backwards this past season. I'm not sure who else they have that would be enticing to the D-Backs. Probably more realistic to bring back Bo or sign Tucker. Apparently if you are CBT payor (which the Jays were after 2025), then signing a qualified FA means you lose your 2nd and 5th highest selections in the draft + $1M in international money. Signing multiple qualified FAs will mean forfeiting 3rd and 6th highest picks as well. I'm not sure how to quantify that in a Bo vs Tucker scenario, but it's pretty significant.

There are at least a million people on earth who I'd trust before Trollosi when it comes to baseball rumors (and I'm rounding down), but Marte would be an incredible add. No issues trading for him and moving on from Bo if that's what they ended up doing. His contract runs a bit too long (age 36-37), but the hitting profile seems like one that could age a bit more gracefully.

Jimenez is out of options, Orelvis is gone, Kasevich was unprotected (rule 5 eligible), and Bichette is a FA. They don't really have much infield depth at the moment, especially on the 40 man roster. I think they'll end up holding on to Jimenez because it doesn't make sense to allocate dollars towards an IKF level player to sit on the bench when Jimenez is probably just as good (if not better....can't be any worse). Either way they probably need some bodies in AAA in case of need.

Sonny Gray has been traded to the Red Sox (per Passan and others).

I'm not sure what Imai will look like at the big league level, but I think with Bieber back in the fold, the Jays can afford to take a chance on upside now. The "grizzled vets who eat up innings over 162" have value, but as we saw with Yesavage in the playoffs, you really need to add impact where you can. If they feel Imai has that potential, then go for it. The added benefit is that it won't cost a pick like Cease, Suarez, Valdez, and King. Of course, the Jays adding an impact player from Japan is something I'd actually have to see to believe. Maybe the World Series run (which got a lot of viewers in Japan too) created some awareness with the Japanese market.

Hopefully he is being genuine, and this is not just stalling until he teams up with Shohei. Even if he doesn't sign with the Jays, sign anywhere other than the Dodgers. My guess is the Giants would make the most sense for him given the West Coast, a team with money to spend, and wanting to beat the Dodgers, but hopefully Boss Atkins can work his magic.

Yeah I think I read Gimenez has a $19M tax hit (give or take) for the Jays even though he made $10M last season and will be $15M this coming season due to the CBT hit being recalculated after a trade. I'm guessing Berrios if traded will go to a $22M CBT hit (18-24-24) but not sure how it works when it comes to player options. The only guaranteed year he has left is 2026 for $18M so maybe that's all it goes off. He doesn't have a buyout so that's not going to be factored in. Maybe Berrios + something for Severino would make some sense but I doubt the A's would want to take on an extra year at $24M. Hard to find something that makes sense for both sides, but if Berrios is tradeable even in a Nimmo/Semien sort of way (contract swap) then I think they should go for it.

Yeah this probably hurts the Jays a bit if it opens up the OF market for the Mets. Of course the GM of the Mets is Stearns who usually prefers the less sexy (i.e. less expensive) splashes with a chance to overshoot their financial commitment. Soto was a Cohen move. Not sure if Tucker will be considered the same.

Berrios has a player option after 2026 at 2/48 that could rise based on innings pitched this coming season. I think he’s unmovable if you’re looking for a pure salary dump. A bad contract swap is probably their best shot.

As far as Bellinger, I could see Atkins being interested (CF depth in case Varsho leaves, defensive versatility, low K%, contact, power, LHB), but it would be pretty underwhelming for what it would cost. Tucker is more of a difference maker offensively, and I think I'd bet on that more than defensive versatility. Obviously there will be a significant cost difference though.

I'm sure Atkins regrets the Santander contract but unless he's completely toast after his shoulder injury, I think he can easily bounce back to be a ~2 WAR, 30+ HR hitter next season. Having a healthy Tony in the lineup in the playoffs instead of Lukes would have been a very noticeable difference. Home runs are difference makers. Unfortunately he got hurt, was allowed to play hurt for weeks, and then basically missed the rest of the season. Just have to write it off and hope for a bounce back next season. With that said, if a team came up to Atkins this winter and said "we'll take the whole contract", I wonder what Ross would do.

Impossible to know what would have happened, but a scenario where the Pirates don't release IKF and the Jays simply go with Leo Jimenez in September/October is a bigger 'what if' for me than Game 7. This team gave IKF 40 (!) post season plate appearances where he had a wRC+ of 7 (!!). If Jimenez was on the bench instead then they never would have played him and probably (kicking and screaming) would have put DS at 2B most of those games and maybe he runs into 1 or 2. It was absolutely infuriating to look forward to a playoff game but also cringe at the same time anticipating seeing IKF's name in the lineup. So while the Hoffman HR to Rojas destroyed a part of me, I'm perfectly fine with any IKF slander.

50-24 (+26) That was the Jays run differential if you added up all the scores at the time Hoffman entered the game in the post season. He had exactly 3 high leverage situations with the Jays leading (by 3 runs or less) or the game tied. He did well in 2 of them (ALCS Game 7 and WS Game 3), but failed in Game 7 of the WS. Beyond that, the rest of his appearances were almost entirely low leverage. I'm not suggesting that's good or bad, just the reality of his appearances. The Jays were probably much better off without having to count on him in higher leverage spots as often. You can't put all the blame on anyone. Bad luck happens, bad calls happen, and "game of inches" stuff happens. With that said, giving up a HR to Miguel Rojas in that spot is insane. Imagine if the roles were reversed and Sasaki/Yamamoto/Snell/whoever gave up a game tying HR to IKF or Straw. IKF has like a 30 wRC+ against LHP, so imagine if Snell gave up a bomb to him in the 9th. That's going to sting more than anything else. The Jays used their best pinch runner in the previous inning (Straw) so IKF was all they had to pinch run for Bo. Can't really do much there. Hoffman giving up a HR to a dude who'd have trouble hitting a HR against RHP if the ball was being underhanded to him all season is a different story. TLDR; get a closer to replace Hoffman in 2026.

I think I see both sides of the argument. I hate how slow baseball off seasons are, but if everything happened in the first week of November and then radio silence until February when pitchers and catchers reported, then not sure that would be any more fun than the current set up. In a non salary cap league there is no fair way to create a signing window so you kinda just have to live with this unless a cap is instituted. The one good thing about how bad baseball off seasons are is that a lockout next winter (as long as it doesn't bleed into the regular season) is probably going to be unnoticeable. It's been 18 days since Game 7 of the World Series and we've had one big signing (Naylor) and one reasonably sized trade (Rodriguez/Ward). We probably won't see any real action until early to mid December.

Tiedemann added to the 40 man roster.