glory

If Bo is brought back, then I could see the Jays being able to work around a Lukes/Straw/DS bench. They'd have 3 starting IF's who could cover SS (Clement, Gimenez, Bo), a RF who could cover 3B (Barger), and then a bench player who could cover 2B (DS), so Lukes as a 4th OF and Straw as a pinch runner/defensive sub could work. It's not ideal, I think I'd just put Lukes as the 4th OF and trade Straw if his salary is now movable, but the Jays absorbed Straw's contract when it was one of the most undesirable contracts in the league. According to FG he put up $14.4M in value last season, which basically covers whatever the Jays owed him from 2025-26, so I don't think they trade him now when he performed exactly like they hoped he would.

Wasn't Framber the one who got upset and threw the ball at his catcher? No chance the Jays add a headcase when "vibes" and character were a big selling point in 2025. Ranger Suarez is probably more realistic.

Barring a Bieber extension, the Jays 2027 rotation right now is Yesavage and Jose Berrios in the Tanner Roark phase of his career. They should still probably add one of the FA SP’s, or trade for a SP with team control.

Bieber could have opted out, taken the $4M, went back to the Jays and said "I'll take a one year deal with you", and still easily cleared $16M. He's doing the Jays a solid here, so I suspect an extension is either being talked about now or will be at some point.

Certainly makes the path to an extension a lot easier. Say what you want about how the season ended, it was heartbreaking, but I think the impact it had on the organization (at least short term) is going to be nothing but positive if this is any indication. As long as Bieber is healthy, there was no reason for him to take this option from a financial standpoint. He clearly wanted to stay.

Wow that’s amazing, and surprising. A 1/16 deal for someone with his upside is a no brainer. Great news.

Lukes is a 31 year old journeyman who had a 89 wRC+ in the 2nd half of the season. I don't think anything the Jays do should have him in mind. Ideally he would be the 4th OF but with Straw here I don't think that happens, so he probably is trade bait.

Sunday was very depressing for me, but now it's Tuesday, life has moved on, and I think I'm back into off-season hot stove mode. Realizing at the end of the day it's just a sport and doesn't really mean anything in the grand scheme of things is the best way to look at it. I kinda wish the lockout that is happening next season would have just happened now so that Jays fans could detach for a few months, but instead we will hopefully have an exciting winter of (lots of dead time followed by) big moves. On the bright side, between the Jays making a long playoff run and the WBC coming up, it's going to feel like a short winter.

If Bieber wants to stay then it’s certainly a possibility that they are working on something. He gets $4M if he opts out, so seems like a foregone conclusion that he will if he and the Jays aren’t working on something now.

Yeah I think this is what happens. If Bo leaves then they’ll just stick Barger at 3B and get an outfielder. That might actually be the better “baseball move”, though clearly won’t be the most popular. Not sure they go into the Tucker market though. I know they’ve gone big game hunting before but that was before the Vlad extension. They’ll probably extend Varsho this winter, and then spend big on a SP (or two). Unless Rogers is possessed by Steve Cohen, there will still be some level of financial restraint shown, one would think. They can’t fill every hole with $20M+ AAV players. I’ve said before I think the Jays end up trading for Kwan if Bo walks, and realistically they probably do need to fill at least one hole with a cheaper arb eligible player. Peralta on the pitching side is another example (only $8M in 2026).

I think the part that bothers me is the improbability of the Jays going back to the World Series any time soon. It could happen certainly but baseball is such a crapshoot. The Braves won a World Series after a mediocre regular season primarily due to overachieving role players, but then could barely win a playoff game after multiple 100 win regular seasons after that. Once you get in, you have to take advantage of it. The Jays being literally 2 outs away makes it worse. Losing the series in 6 where the Dodgers were clearly the better team would have given us a completely different outlook. I guess 2025 wasn’t the 2015 Royals. We have to hope they were the 2014 Royals, with Yamamoto playing the role of MadBum. Win the thing next year and we can move on from this. JS will be back so the Ned Yost energy will still be there.

Yeah as long as your expectation of Ernie is a ~95 wRC+ with great defense, then you shouldn't be disappointed. His playoff run is no where near sustainable, so just have to ignore that. That offense plays a lot better at 2B than it does at 3B, IMO, but if they bring Bichette back, then it's clearly going to be Clement at 3B and Barger in RF.

What happens with Bichette is going to determine the rest of the off season. Curious to see how the Jays value him. He’s certainly more appealing as a 2B, and he looked fine there on one leg in a short sample size. The impending lockout is going to make the FA market very condensed. Teams like the Jays will spend a lot, while teams that want a salary cap will pretend to be collecting food stamps for the upcoming collective bargaining. Might be some trade opportunities as well.

Yeah all the other stuff is just typical baseball luck. Giving up a home run to LA’s version of IKF though is inexcusable and avoidable. That was the game right there. The Jays unfortunately had a closer who gave up home runs like Oprah and that’s who they lived and eventually died with.

I think some of the team’s more questionable contracts could bounce back next season (Gimenez, Santander, Hoffman) but they probably should consider trying to shed money somewhere. I mentioned Straw earlier. If his 2025 season made his 2026 salary more palatable for other teams then he’s a logical one. I don’t think he’s a 90 wRC+ bat again, and Lukes as a 4th OF (even with limited CF defense) is the better option. Berrios is another one but I can’t imagine he’s movable with his contract. Hoffman is coming off a negative WAR season where he gave up the 2nd most home runs for a reliever in baseball and gave up probably the most embarrassing home run in World Series history, so can’t imagine there’s a market there either. Rogers probably just needs to go Steve Cohen this winter and then see what happens with the CBA next winter. Shedding salary doesn’t seem like a plausible option.

There will be a bunch of SP options in FA and trade, but it's harder to see where the Jays pivot to if Bichette leaves. I doubt they'll be in on Schwarber with Tony locked up for a while, and Tucker/Bellinger are likely going to go above their comfort level. Who else is there? The super obvious trade candidate, and I'd actually bet on this happening if Bo leaves given how Ross operates, is Steven Kwan. He has the skill set that the Jays salivate over. If Ketel Marte becomes available then he would be another one that makes sense. Re-signing Bo is probably the best way to proceed here, especially if there's mutual interest and he's open to 2B. Not sure a long term deal for Bo will age practically well, but you have to add short term wins wherever you can this winter.

Never thought I'd be depressed talking about hot stove baseball, but here we are. I don't think Lukes is going to start next season. They either bring Bichette back and Barger/Santander are in the OF corners, or Bichette leaves and they probably just stick Barger at 3B and try to find an outfielder to replace Bo's spot in the lineup. In both scenarios, Lukes falls back into a 4th OF role, which I think he's better suited for anyway. It will be interesting to see what they do with the bench if that happens. If there's even a chance to trade Straw without having to eat up money now, then I think you do that in a heartbeat and put Lukes in the 4th OF role. That $6M can be used way more efficiently, and Straw is a prime candidate to turn back into a pumpkin next season. The rotation is really what will make or break the 2026 team. They won in spite of the rotation for most of this season. Without Yesavage panning out and the Bieber trade, things would have looked a lot different. They need to add legit upside to the rotation this winter. Luckily the FA market is strongest in SP's. That's one area Atkins has to hit a home run. It's unfair to expect any FA SP signing to pan out like Gausman's did, but essentially have to find the next Gausman contract this winter. Bieber, Cease, Woodruff, Valdez, Suarez, King....there are options with varying levels of upside, floor, and risk.

IKF is a free agent after this season, the Jays need a backup IF next year, and Ross Atkins valued him at $15M two years ago for being the exact same player he is now. They just gave him ~40 plate appearances in a World Series playoff run. I'd be shocked if he's not back next season at something like 1/3 or a small deal like that. I nearly vomited typing that but I'm just preparing for that now so it eases the pain when it actually happens.

I have no issues piling on IKF, he's horrendous, but Jeff Hoffman gave up a home run to Miguel Rojas. Not Ohtani, or Freeman, or Smith, or Betts, or Teo, or anyone else. Miguel f'n Rojas. This one is on Hoffman. There's a lot of luck involved in baseball, it's a game of inches, but giving up a HR to a damn scrub in the 9th inning of Game 7 when you're 2 outs away is the damn reason you lost.

He's a FA but the Jays FO is the only one that values him this highly. I think he's back as a utility player next season. I truly hope I'm wrong on that. Since Leo Jimenez is out of options, hopefully they just stick him in that role. I legit never want to see IKF wear this uniform ever again. Not as long as JS is managing.

The Jays lost because their closer gave up a home run to Miguel Rojas when they were 2 outs, and 4 strikes, away from a World Series title. I'm not getting over this s*** for a while. I'm sure eventually I'll appreciate how amazing this season was, but it sure as hell won't be now. A kick in the nuts wouldn't hurt as much as this.

Trade Hoffman. Giving up a HR to Rojas in that spot. I don’t want to see him again.

I can’t get over Hoffman giving up a HR to Rojas.

This one is on JS. Insane they went with Dominguez here.