glory
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Everything posted by glory
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Yeah I'm in the same boat. I'm conflicted on Bo because I don't think his batting profile is going to age well (high BABIP, low walk rates) and he was slower than Vlad in sprint speed prior to his injury (and he's had a bunch of lower body injuries recently). With that said, the Jays need a short-term impact bat to take advantage of this competitive cycle, and Bo might be the most realistic one they can get. I wouldn't be terribly upset if another team overpaid him and the Jays moved on to someone else, but could certainly understand bringing him back at a reasonable price point. I'd go with Imai + Bo as well. Or Imai + sign/trade for Bo's replacement, whichever one is the more reasonable path (ex. if Bo wants $250M then maybe look towards a trade or another avenue in free agency). After Bieber picked up his option, I think Imai is even more appealing since the Jays can take a bit of a risk now on upside with some certainty added to the rotation.
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Another benefit might (stressing the word "might") be that the Dodgers have so many SP's, especially on big money deals, that they may not be as involved in this one. Of course the Dodgers don't care about money, so if they wanted a 7th or 8th starter on the roster making $20-25M a year, then they could certainly afford it. If the Dodgers are not as involved, and Boras advises him to take the best deal, then the Jays certainly have a shot if they are interested/willing to overpay. My guess is they end up with one of the MLB SP FA's though (Suarez, Cease, King, etc).
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Sounds like Imai is going to be posted and hired Boras as his agent. I’m not sure how likely it is that the Jays sign him but strangely Boras being involved might help the Jays chances (highest bidder vs location). Of course he might already be a Dodger regardless.
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Know nothing about this guy but reading about him makes him sound like the least likely Jays target out there.
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Yeah forgot about Varsho but great defense and baserunning from a CF can compensate for that. The one non-D player they have signed in the last 2-3 years is Santander whose K rate in his last 3000 PA before 2025 was 20%. They were playing IKF over DS in the playoffs almost certainly for the difference in contact ability. I read on X (don't know if it's true) that Murakami has trouble with fastballs too. I'm sure Morosi will be linking him to the Jays within the next 48 hours, but I doubt he's even on their radar.
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I know nothing about Murakami but "swing and miss" makes me think the Jays won't be in on him. I can't think of a single player Atkins has acquired in years that had issues with swing and miss. Maybe they'll make an exception here, I have no idea, but my guess is they go after Imai more so than Murakami.
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5/130 seems light, but I think the 2026-27 lockout coming up is going to have an impact on the dollars thrown around in the market. What we assume based on recent trends and what actually happens might be two entirely different things. Bo not being able to get $200M in this market wouldn't shock me at all. At least half of the teams will act like they are homeless this winter so that they have ammo to demand a salary cap next winter. The Jays have the opportunity to take advantage of that (as they did with Springer after the Covid year where teams weren't spending) but the prices may not be as high as people assume. I guess it depends on the first domino. Bo not being a Boras guy probably increases the chances of him signing for a "less than expected" contract. If he was a Boras guy then he'd probably be unsigned until February 25th.
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I second the notion that Donnie should go back to the Yankees and work exclusively with their hitters. He deserves it.
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I’ve learned to never read too much into an Atkins interview but him being noncommittal about Hoffman as the closer is (hopefully) good news. If Hoff wants to have Chad Green’s home run rate then let him give up dingers to backup infielders in the 7th inning rather than in the biggest moments. With that said, Hoffman himself is a good example of how risky investing heavily into the bullpen can be. If they do decide to sign a closer then I hope they guess right this time.
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I didn't listen to the podcast, but I've had this concern about Bo for a while. I don't think he's a good long term investment. Moving to 2B and extracting a bit more defensive value will help him as he ages, but the offensive profile seems very dangerous to bank on for 5 more years, much less 7 or 8. Unfortunately there isn't really much in terms of other options in free agency. Bellinger comes with his own flaws, Schwarber is a DH (the Jays have 2 of them already), and Tucker is going to be very expensive with other big market teams in on him. It does seem like it will be Bo or bust in free agency. My guess is they'll look at the trade market if Bichette leaves.
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I’m sure there’s some buyer’s remorse with the Santander signing but I doubt they will look to dump him. There’s a real chance for a bounce back season if he’s healthy next season. It should help compensate for whatever decline Springer sees with the bat. The Jays will definitely add a controllable SP now with the lack of controllable SPs on the team. Bieber adds a bit more stability to the rotation in 2026 so maybe that makes a high upside play (Imai, Woodruff, King) something they consider over a high floor (Suarez).
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If Bo is brought back, then I could see the Jays being able to work around a Lukes/Straw/DS bench. They'd have 3 starting IF's who could cover SS (Clement, Gimenez, Bo), a RF who could cover 3B (Barger), and then a bench player who could cover 2B (DS), so Lukes as a 4th OF and Straw as a pinch runner/defensive sub could work. It's not ideal, I think I'd just put Lukes as the 4th OF and trade Straw if his salary is now movable, but the Jays absorbed Straw's contract when it was one of the most undesirable contracts in the league. According to FG he put up $14.4M in value last season, which basically covers whatever the Jays owed him from 2025-26, so I don't think they trade him now when he performed exactly like they hoped he would.
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Wasn't Framber the one who got upset and threw the ball at his catcher? No chance the Jays add a headcase when "vibes" and character were a big selling point in 2025. Ranger Suarez is probably more realistic.
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Barring a Bieber extension, the Jays 2027 rotation right now is Yesavage and Jose Berrios in the Tanner Roark phase of his career. They should still probably add one of the FA SP’s, or trade for a SP with team control.
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Bieber could have opted out, taken the $4M, went back to the Jays and said "I'll take a one year deal with you", and still easily cleared $16M. He's doing the Jays a solid here, so I suspect an extension is either being talked about now or will be at some point.
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Certainly makes the path to an extension a lot easier. Say what you want about how the season ended, it was heartbreaking, but I think the impact it had on the organization (at least short term) is going to be nothing but positive if this is any indication. As long as Bieber is healthy, there was no reason for him to take this option from a financial standpoint. He clearly wanted to stay.
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Wow that’s amazing, and surprising. A 1/16 deal for someone with his upside is a no brainer. Great news.
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Lukes is a 31 year old journeyman who had a 89 wRC+ in the 2nd half of the season. I don't think anything the Jays do should have him in mind. Ideally he would be the 4th OF but with Straw here I don't think that happens, so he probably is trade bait.
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Sunday was very depressing for me, but now it's Tuesday, life has moved on, and I think I'm back into off-season hot stove mode. Realizing at the end of the day it's just a sport and doesn't really mean anything in the grand scheme of things is the best way to look at it. I kinda wish the lockout that is happening next season would have just happened now so that Jays fans could detach for a few months, but instead we will hopefully have an exciting winter of (lots of dead time followed by) big moves. On the bright side, between the Jays making a long playoff run and the WBC coming up, it's going to feel like a short winter.
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If Bieber wants to stay then it’s certainly a possibility that they are working on something. He gets $4M if he opts out, so seems like a foregone conclusion that he will if he and the Jays aren’t working on something now.
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Yeah I think this is what happens. If Bo leaves then they’ll just stick Barger at 3B and get an outfielder. That might actually be the better “baseball move”, though clearly won’t be the most popular. Not sure they go into the Tucker market though. I know they’ve gone big game hunting before but that was before the Vlad extension. They’ll probably extend Varsho this winter, and then spend big on a SP (or two). Unless Rogers is possessed by Steve Cohen, there will still be some level of financial restraint shown, one would think. They can’t fill every hole with $20M+ AAV players. I’ve said before I think the Jays end up trading for Kwan if Bo walks, and realistically they probably do need to fill at least one hole with a cheaper arb eligible player. Peralta on the pitching side is another example (only $8M in 2026).
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I think the part that bothers me is the improbability of the Jays going back to the World Series any time soon. It could happen certainly but baseball is such a crapshoot. The Braves won a World Series after a mediocre regular season primarily due to overachieving role players, but then could barely win a playoff game after multiple 100 win regular seasons after that. Once you get in, you have to take advantage of it. The Jays being literally 2 outs away makes it worse. Losing the series in 6 where the Dodgers were clearly the better team would have given us a completely different outlook. I guess 2025 wasn’t the 2015 Royals. We have to hope they were the 2014 Royals, with Yamamoto playing the role of MadBum. Win the thing next year and we can move on from this. JS will be back so the Ned Yost energy will still be there.
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Yeah as long as your expectation of Ernie is a ~95 wRC+ with great defense, then you shouldn't be disappointed. His playoff run is no where near sustainable, so just have to ignore that. That offense plays a lot better at 2B than it does at 3B, IMO, but if they bring Bichette back, then it's clearly going to be Clement at 3B and Barger in RF.
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What happens with Bichette is going to determine the rest of the off season. Curious to see how the Jays value him. He’s certainly more appealing as a 2B, and he looked fine there on one leg in a short sample size. The impending lockout is going to make the FA market very condensed. Teams like the Jays will spend a lot, while teams that want a salary cap will pretend to be collecting food stamps for the upcoming collective bargaining. Might be some trade opportunities as well.
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Yeah all the other stuff is just typical baseball luck. Giving up a home run to LA’s version of IKF though is inexcusable and avoidable. That was the game right there. The Jays unfortunately had a closer who gave up home runs like Oprah and that’s who they lived and eventually died with.
