glory

It’s why I’m not sure the Tucker stuff has any merit to it. Atkins usually does work in silence.

The Jays need a controllable outfielder more than an infielder. Varsho is a pending FA, Springer is a DH + a FA, and Santander is a DH who has to play the OF out of necessity (will move to DH in 2027). Whether it's Tucker or someone else, the Jays should probably add an outfielder with some control this winter. That feels like a bigger need than 2B.

Yeah I'd rather have Berrios than Arenado for 2026-beyond.

I'd say it's pretty unlikely, but who knows. It's unclear what Bo's market even is at this point. He's awful at SS and he's coming off a knee injury that may or may not even be healed yet. It's entirely feasible that he ends up taking a pillow contract to reestablish value next season if he doesn't get the 6-7-8 year deals that he was envisioning this winter. As far as Tucker, I think he gets a big contract, but I don't think his market is as robust as people think. Corner OF at age 29 with a very good, not elite, track record. Tough to say. If the Jays are willing to blow past $300M and just take whatever penalties that come with it this season, then it's definitely a possibility. I don't know how realistic that is though. I would imagine getting the biggest Boras client on the market (at least on the pitching side) to sign before December means the Jays are willing to spend big. That doesn't happen often. I get the sense that the reliever pickup is going to be Helsley. I'm basing that off nothing really, but I recall the Jays were linked to him at the deadline, and there was no real change to his Stuff+ or velo last season (just Hoffman-itis with HR's). I could definitely see the Jays banking on the HR rate normalizing.

Gimenez is a solid player (more palatable as a SS) but the contract still sucks. AAV hit of around $19-20M, and 4/86 left on the deal. If he's around a league average bat then it would help a lot but I'm not sure I'd be confident penciling that in. Hopefully with better health and some Popkins magic he can rebound next season.

I think Tony is going to bounce back next season (assuming he's healthy), but I think if Atkins could dump the contract right now he probably would. The fit doesn't seem as necessary as it did a year ago. With Springer thriving as the DH, it means Santander will play OF full time or close to it in 2026, and that's not ideal for a team that values defense as heavily as the Jays do. The contract with the deferrals is very reasonable though so it's not a contract that needs to be dumped. Gimenez having a ~$20M CBT hit is a much bigger albatross.

Theres’s $90M coming off the books but they’ll also have to replace Springer, Varsho, Gausman and Bieber next season without any obvious (for now) internal candidates. How they balance going for it in 2026 with sustainability beyond that will be interesting to see. I think going into Cohen territory makes sense for 2026. The team is set up to win now and there’s CBA uncertainty next season, so take advantage of what’s in front of you. If the CBA changes for 2027, or even if it’s an altered version of the current one, then you pivot from there. One thing though is if you’re handing out big contracts, then make sure it’s for impact. Cease fits that criteria. Berrios, Santander, and Gimenez do not. The latter are the contracts that have more potential to hurt you. So if the Jays are going into Cohen territory, then go for the top end FAs.

I think this is what the Jays are betting on. They like the profile already, but they probably feel Walker can do something with him to get better results, which combined with the durability and the better defense behind him could make this contract look great if it works out. Even as is it's fair value aside from the years. If he has another gear in him then it would look fantastic.

Berrios as a FIP beating #5 starter who eats up innings over 162 and never sees a post season inning can still be valuable. Massively overpaid but as a #5 guy it’s not terrible. Best case is whatever injury he had in 2025 explains his performance drop and he comes back a bit better in 2026. No chance he’s opting out of 2/48 or 2/50, so just have to hope he’s a 1-2 WAR innings guy. Maybe you can dump him in 2027 or 2028 when he’s closer to the end of his deal. Of course if he has a 3 WAR bounce back season then maybe he’s a bit more tradable next winter.

The only issue with the deal is 7 years but I’m pretty sure Cease was going to get at least 6 years regardless, so tacking on an extra year to get the player was the right call if they believed he was worth it. As mentioned the Jays have a good track record with veteran starters recently. Durability combined with velocity, swing/miss, and upside is worth the risk.

Yeah honestly as long as the Jays are acquiring high end talent (4-5+ WAR types) in a year they figure to be high on the win curve, then you probably just worry about the payroll stuff later. Just add as much impact as possible.

If they signed Tucker and let Bo go, then they'd lose their 3rd and 6th round pick while gaining a pick after the 4th round. So I guess it would be just be losing one additional pick (3 picks total). Yeah it shouldn't be a deterrent if Tucker checks all their boxes, but I just have a hard time seeing $500-600M being spent on two players, especially after the Vlad contract. Maybe circumstances and mindsets have changed after the World Series appearance. My hunch is that they don't sign Tucker but who knows at this point. No one was putting Cease with the Jays prior to today. Most of social media and MLB reporters are engagement hounds who have to pump out content during the slowest time of the year and get engagement out of it. The Jays could do just about anything, and it probably will be something no one has brought up yet.

I know Cease's deal is deferred but I'm having a hard time seeing the Jays drop between $500-600M and losing 4 draft picks for Cease and Tucker. Maybe Boss Atkins took that Game 7 loss to heart and is going scorched earth but definitely feels like this is setting up a Bo reunion (or a trade) more than anything else.

Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Scherzer-Francis Gausman-Cease-Bieber-Yesavage-Berrios. What a difference a year makes.

So the Jays lose their 2nd and 5th highest picks with this signing (plus $1M in international money). If they sign Tucker, then I think they lose their 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 6th highest picks, though they'd gain one back when Bo signs elsewhere in that scenario. Tucker might be the only other qualified FA they go after anyway. I doubt they are in the SP market anymore, and I doubt they are in on Diaz. One of Bo or Tucker, and then one of Suarez (Robert), Helsley, Williams, etc, for the bullpen.

Deferrals make it interesting. That's going to lower the AAV and CBT hit, which could give them more room to work with depending on what it comes out to. I do think the timing makes the team more appealing to other FA's. Curious to see how the rest of the winter looks. I think one of Tucker or Bo is very realistic.

It's definitely an overpay in years, but in free agency you either go one year more than you're comfortable with or you lose the player. The Jays wanted the player. Cost of doing business. Cease has 5 straight seasons of at least 32 starts so he fits with the Jays love of durability (with the caveat that pitchers can break at any time), and there's real front of the rotation stuff there. This is definitely their hope for Gausman part II. Certainly pitching in front of the Jays defense should help him a lot.

Jays sign Cease. 7/210. Wow.

Rendon in the 3 seasons prior to signing with the Angels (2017-19): 1848 PA, 18.1 WAR, 145 wRC+, .390 xwOBA, 11.9 BB%, 13.5 K%, +11 OAA/+22 DRS at 3B, Ages 27-29 It's easy to rag on the Angels, but Rendon looked about as much of a sure thing as you can get. He just happened to be one of the rare players who got the bag and then unapologetically quit on the team. There are players who decline after signing a big contract. Rendon had a combination of injuries and not giving a s*** anymore.

"Blue Jays are one of a handful of teams that have checked in on (insert Free Agent or trade target)" happens every year with Trollosi. It's usually followed by a spot on a Toronto radio show. I'm sure the Jays have checked in on Marte, but Morosi is just doing his usual off-season nonsense to get whatever engagement he can from the few people who still view him as credible. How he survived Ohtani-gate still baffles me.

Realistically I don't think the Jays have the prospects to get that type of deal done. They won't trade Yesavage obviously, and Nimmala took a step backwards this past season. I'm not sure who else they have that would be enticing to the D-Backs. Probably more realistic to bring back Bo or sign Tucker. Apparently if you are CBT payor (which the Jays were after 2025), then signing a qualified FA means you lose your 2nd and 5th highest selections in the draft + $1M in international money. Signing multiple qualified FAs will mean forfeiting 3rd and 6th highest picks as well. I'm not sure how to quantify that in a Bo vs Tucker scenario, but it's pretty significant.

There are at least a million people on earth who I'd trust before Trollosi when it comes to baseball rumors (and I'm rounding down), but Marte would be an incredible add. No issues trading for him and moving on from Bo if that's what they ended up doing. His contract runs a bit too long (age 36-37), but the hitting profile seems like one that could age a bit more gracefully.

Jimenez is out of options, Orelvis is gone, Kasevich was unprotected (rule 5 eligible), and Bichette is a FA. They don't really have much infield depth at the moment, especially on the 40 man roster. I think they'll end up holding on to Jimenez because it doesn't make sense to allocate dollars towards an IKF level player to sit on the bench when Jimenez is probably just as good (if not better....can't be any worse). Either way they probably need some bodies in AAA in case of need.

Sonny Gray has been traded to the Red Sox (per Passan and others).