glory

Seems like if they miss on Bellinger then they’ll just go with what they have, or maybe make a small trade. Hal a few weeks ago basically said he would ideally like to spend less than he did last season so my guess is Cashman can only increase payroll for specific talent.

At least Japanese talent have chosen Chicago and Houston as their destinations so far rather than the Dodgers. It's likely because the league doesn't believe they are that good, but whatever.

Yeah and the Jays best prospects are also teenagers for the most part, so that combined with the D-Backs wanting MLB ready pitching makes the two teams a bad trade fit. Boston is a great trade fit, which is not good for the Jays. If there’s a scenario where the Jays miss out on all of Tucker, Bo, Bregman, and Bellinger, then I wonder what their pivot would be. Probably the non-Marte trade market. Hopefully we start to see some action soon. The lockout next winter will probably feel like a regular MLB off season if the activity the last 2 months is any indication.

The Jays don’t have the expendable prospect capital to get Marte, so it’s really down to the 4 top FAs (Tucker, Bo, Bregman, Bellinger). I’d be happy if the Jays landed Tucker but I’ve kinda lost interest there. Looking at the list of position players in MLB history who have signed contracts for $300M or more, almost all of them are either sure fire future HOF’ers or will/could end up being borderline cases by the end of their careers (aside from Tatis who is likely done due to PED suspension). Tucker is a very good player but is also a corner OF, so less justifiable than someone who signed as a SS (Turner) or 3B (Devers). I really don’t see a $300-400M contract ending up aging particularly well especially since they’d want to intentionally bump up the years to lower the AAV. I might be in the sign Bo camp at this point if Tucker’s ask is too high, assuming Bo’s price/term is more reasonable (6 or 7 years). I don’t think Bo will age well either but at least if he can handle 2B for a few years he should still be reasonably good value. If Tucker is going to end up short term, high AAV, then the Jays should be in on that, though.

Big market/payroll teams are not spending much this winter aside from the Jays who jumped the market on Cease. Not sure if this is strategic with the CBA ending next December and the owners wanting a salary cap, or whether the players are simply asking for more than they are worth. Maybe a little of both. Imai not getting much interest (allegedly) is surprising.

The only "Jays are linked to" rumor that I will ever believe is if it involves IKF. Everyone else is not noteworthy at all because 1) the Jays are linked to everyone, and 2) their moves usually come out of no where most of the time.

I think a 120-ish wRC+ (give or take) for Springer in 2026 is pretty reasonable, and wouldn't be a bad outcome for the Jays. There's no way he's coming close to 166 again. If Santander has a bounce back season then that should help mitigate some of Springer's decline.

Yeah if the Pirates get a league average offense then they should at least be competitive. Last season they had a team wRC+ of 82 and team ISO of .119. They were collectively IKF with a little more power as an offense. At least with Cruz, Reynolds, Lowe, O'Hearn, and Horwitz, there's some decent options there. They'll need platoon mates for Cruz and Horwitz, and they still need to add a 3B. Not sure they'll be a playoff team (although that bar isn't high as witnessed by the Reds making it last year) but that should be a much more competitive team than previous seasons. With 4 more years of Skenes under team control, they had to start taking this seriously.

Since 2022, Santander has a 129 wRC+ when he plays the field (133 prior to 2025) and 80 wRC+ as a DH (89 prior to 2025). This dude does not like to DH apparently. If Springer is still good in 2026 then might as well try to bring him back if performance/vibes are still strong. Sticking Tony at DH in 2027 might not be the best plan.

I think Tucker's market is so limited that a short term deal with the Dodgers is probably realistic for him. Holding out for more when there's only like 1-2 realistic suitors seems destined to fail. My guess is Tucker either signs a long term deal with the Jays or a short term high AAV deal with the Dodgers. No in between. I really don't see another realistic option for him with big market teams moving on to other things or sitting on their hands (Yankees).

That's my thought as well. Boras using the Jays to pump interest in his client, and the Jays using Bregman to force whoever they really want (Tucker) to hurry the F up.

We need to hope for the owners and players to do what they did 5 years ago and just agree to an altered version of the existing CBA. Rogers and the Jays (if management is good) could be a monster in this system with a consistent top 2-3 payroll every year. I really don't think a salary cap is happening regardless, nor do I think either side will be willing to lose games over it, but either way, this system works very well for the Jays + their front office.

Stove suddenly getting hot.

Strahm would have made a lot of sense as a Jays target, and the Royals got him for not much.

Over the last decade what was the biggest contract given to a 2B? My guess would be the 7/175 for Semien and he was coming off a 6 WAR season and his 2nd 6+ WAR season in 3 years at that point (Mickey Mouse season sandwiched in between). Extensions to Altuve and Marte were way less than $200M. LeMahieu got less than $100M. Marketing himself as a 2B will probabaly increase his realistic number of suitors but may not increase his money all that much. Since Cano signed his deal (possible HOF track at the time prior to PED scandals), that's a position that hasn't been highly valued from a contract standpoint. Or maybe there hasn't been enough actual elite FA 2B over that last decade to get a good read on it. Certainly if Altuve and Marte tested free agency then they likely beat Semien's number.

There is a better chance of one of us suiting up for the Jays than there is of Berrios opting out of 2/48 or 2/50.

Bo passing the eye test at 2B in limited reps with one functioning leg likely helped him a lot. I doubt any team views him as a SS at this point. Will teams pay big money for a 2B? Maybe, but he's probably entering a difficult market one year before a lockout. Teams might be willing to overpay for a SS. Less likely for a 2B. Curious to see what Bo ends up signing for. I think him coming back to the Jays is a very real possibility. The Red Sox are being linked to him now and I don't think they have any interest in spending big in free agency.

Elbow and bicep doesn’t sound good.

This was posted about Murakami a couple of days ago. Not sure what to believe, but two things against him from a Jays standpoint is lots of K's (they hate that) and lack of position unless they think he can handle 3B or the OF. Aside from that, a 25/26 year old with that type of power potential is intriguing. Unfortunately the team acquiring him will be taking a gamble with a FA contract rather than $800k for 3 years, so not sure the Jays fit there. Okamoto probably fits the Jays profile a lot better.