glory

I doubt Yesavage starts anywhere other than the Majors as long as he's healthy. Lauer probably the long man. Either that or Berrios stays, Ponce is the long man, and Lauer is a leverage RP, but that seems like a bad use of resources. I have no idea how they could possibly move Berrios with that contract, but let's see what they do.

Boss Atkins. No clue how Ponce is going to pitch in the bigs, but it's a reasonable gamble at 3/30. Even if he's a back end SP it would be worth it. Wonder what this means for Berrios, though.

From BNS: Honestly looking at what's left of the RP market, it wouldn't be the worst pivot to add another SP instead. It would create a glut of SPs but that's never been a bad problem to have. Fairbanks, Suarez, Keller, etc, all feel pretty underwhelming to me depending on the cost.

It does feel like it will be Keller or Fairbanks, which would feel kinda unspectacular but as Hoffman proved, long term deals for relievers aren’t always optimal. I highly doubt they go towards Diaz but seems pretty straight forward if they want him. Give him the years he wants and he’s yours (sounds like he wants 5). They did it with Cease. Not sure they’d do it for a reliever but who knows.

I think Diaz goes back to the Mets. He has a QO attached to him and I don’t think any team is giving him $80-100M and losing 2 picks on top of that. Relievers are just too volatile.

From Shi Davidi's latest article: One thing to keep in mind is that if the Blue Jays don’t get Bichette or Tucker, they can’t simply reallocate the money they would have spent on them elsewhere, as they’re being viewed as specific business cases, like Shohei Ohtani two winters ago. Again this is the same guy who said the Jays had $15-20M available to spend last winter and they ended up spending over $60M in 2025 payroll (not counting the trade deadline), so I'll take anything he says with a grain of salt but that's a surprisingly matter-of-fact statement.

Jeff Passan posted the following on his "Threads" account: 2) Kyle Tucker: The market for the best free agent in the class could stretch into the new year potentially. At the end of the day, nobody can make a team better like Tucker, and whether it’s Toronto, Philadelphia, either New York team or perhaps one that misses out on the rest of the top players in the class, Tucker’s price will be met, and he’ll get a 10-year-plus deal for more than $300 million — with an even higher ceiling possible. 6) Bo Bichette: One could argue that behind Tucker and Schwarber, Bichette is the best bat available. And considering the paucity of everyday infielders available on the free agent and trade markets, his game stands out even more. Going back to Toronto is the most obvious outcome, but in the end, Bichette’s willingness to move off shortstop will buy him significantly more interested teams and a deal that because of his age (27) could approach $200 million. If the difference between Bo and Tucker is going to be $100M+ and multiple years, then you could argue that Bo looks way more appealing.

The Jays just signed the best SP on the market who is also a Boras client before December. Ha-Seong Kim would probably be Plan Q for the Jays at this point. Boss Atkins is going big game hunting.

Yeah, if I recall Shi thought the Jays had like $15-20M to spend last winter, and then they went out and got Santander, Scherzer, Gimenez, Hoffman, and Garcia. I don't think him or BNS are that plugged in. I don't know if the Jays are going to end up with one of Bo or Tucker, but I feel like they will add someone for the offense even if it's their annual "let's save the Guardians some money" trade and Kwan is playing LF. Status quo with the offense would be a mistake, IMO.

Helsley's deal with the O's is apparently 2/28 (with an opt out after the season). Curious to see what Williams and Suarez get in this market. The Jays are likely looking at those two.

It’s why I’m not sure the Tucker stuff has any merit to it. Atkins usually does work in silence.

The Jays need a controllable outfielder more than an infielder. Varsho is a pending FA, Springer is a DH + a FA, and Santander is a DH who has to play the OF out of necessity (will move to DH in 2027). Whether it's Tucker or someone else, the Jays should probably add an outfielder with some control this winter. That feels like a bigger need than 2B.

Yeah I'd rather have Berrios than Arenado for 2026-beyond.

I'd say it's pretty unlikely, but who knows. It's unclear what Bo's market even is at this point. He's awful at SS and he's coming off a knee injury that may or may not even be healed yet. It's entirely feasible that he ends up taking a pillow contract to reestablish value next season if he doesn't get the 6-7-8 year deals that he was envisioning this winter. As far as Tucker, I think he gets a big contract, but I don't think his market is as robust as people think. Corner OF at age 29 with a very good, not elite, track record. Tough to say. If the Jays are willing to blow past $300M and just take whatever penalties that come with it this season, then it's definitely a possibility. I don't know how realistic that is though. I would imagine getting the biggest Boras client on the market (at least on the pitching side) to sign before December means the Jays are willing to spend big. That doesn't happen often. I get the sense that the reliever pickup is going to be Helsley. I'm basing that off nothing really, but I recall the Jays were linked to him at the deadline, and there was no real change to his Stuff+ or velo last season (just Hoffman-itis with HR's). I could definitely see the Jays banking on the HR rate normalizing.

Gimenez is a solid player (more palatable as a SS) but the contract still sucks. AAV hit of around $19-20M, and 4/86 left on the deal. If he's around a league average bat then it would help a lot but I'm not sure I'd be confident penciling that in. Hopefully with better health and some Popkins magic he can rebound next season.

I think Tony is going to bounce back next season (assuming he's healthy), but I think if Atkins could dump the contract right now he probably would. The fit doesn't seem as necessary as it did a year ago. With Springer thriving as the DH, it means Santander will play OF full time or close to it in 2026, and that's not ideal for a team that values defense as heavily as the Jays do. The contract with the deferrals is very reasonable though so it's not a contract that needs to be dumped. Gimenez having a ~$20M CBT hit is a much bigger albatross.

Theres’s $90M coming off the books but they’ll also have to replace Springer, Varsho, Gausman and Bieber next season without any obvious (for now) internal candidates. How they balance going for it in 2026 with sustainability beyond that will be interesting to see. I think going into Cohen territory makes sense for 2026. The team is set up to win now and there’s CBA uncertainty next season, so take advantage of what’s in front of you. If the CBA changes for 2027, or even if it’s an altered version of the current one, then you pivot from there. One thing though is if you’re handing out big contracts, then make sure it’s for impact. Cease fits that criteria. Berrios, Santander, and Gimenez do not. The latter are the contracts that have more potential to hurt you. So if the Jays are going into Cohen territory, then go for the top end FAs.

I think this is what the Jays are betting on. They like the profile already, but they probably feel Walker can do something with him to get better results, which combined with the durability and the better defense behind him could make this contract look great if it works out. Even as is it's fair value aside from the years. If he has another gear in him then it would look fantastic.

Berrios as a FIP beating #5 starter who eats up innings over 162 and never sees a post season inning can still be valuable. Massively overpaid but as a #5 guy it’s not terrible. Best case is whatever injury he had in 2025 explains his performance drop and he comes back a bit better in 2026. No chance he’s opting out of 2/48 or 2/50, so just have to hope he’s a 1-2 WAR innings guy. Maybe you can dump him in 2027 or 2028 when he’s closer to the end of his deal. Of course if he has a 3 WAR bounce back season then maybe he’s a bit more tradable next winter.

The only issue with the deal is 7 years but I’m pretty sure Cease was going to get at least 6 years regardless, so tacking on an extra year to get the player was the right call if they believed he was worth it. As mentioned the Jays have a good track record with veteran starters recently. Durability combined with velocity, swing/miss, and upside is worth the risk.

Yeah honestly as long as the Jays are acquiring high end talent (4-5+ WAR types) in a year they figure to be high on the win curve, then you probably just worry about the payroll stuff later. Just add as much impact as possible.

If they signed Tucker and let Bo go, then they'd lose their 3rd and 6th round pick while gaining a pick after the 4th round. So I guess it would be just be losing one additional pick (3 picks total). Yeah it shouldn't be a deterrent if Tucker checks all their boxes, but I just have a hard time seeing $500-600M being spent on two players, especially after the Vlad contract. Maybe circumstances and mindsets have changed after the World Series appearance. My hunch is that they don't sign Tucker but who knows at this point. No one was putting Cease with the Jays prior to today. Most of social media and MLB reporters are engagement hounds who have to pump out content during the slowest time of the year and get engagement out of it. The Jays could do just about anything, and it probably will be something no one has brought up yet.

I know Cease's deal is deferred but I'm having a hard time seeing the Jays drop between $500-600M and losing 4 draft picks for Cease and Tucker. Maybe Boss Atkins took that Game 7 loss to heart and is going scorched earth but definitely feels like this is setting up a Bo reunion (or a trade) more than anything else.

Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Scherzer-Francis Gausman-Cease-Bieber-Yesavage-Berrios. What a difference a year makes.