Olerud363

I'd like to try and understand what happened to him. I saw him twice in 2016, in April in Boston, in October, in Boston. Both times he looked amazing. I recall him having a very good sinking fastball, and good curve. Not bad control. Ground ball machine. Then the last two years he's been a disaster. Even when healthy looks completely different (I think). With a bizarre, ineffective change up instead of the curve. Is my memory correct?? Has his pitch selection changed in the last two years?? Perhaps the curve was causing the blister issues?? Or am I totally wrong on this, and his pitch selection is about the same, but he's just bad now....

Except on the 2018 Jays, other than Smoak and Morales the entire team was .240 .290 .450 type hitters with 20 homers so one of the them inevitably hit lead off (note: that's not true, Granderson hit leadoff most of time until the great Mckinney came, I guess against lefties one of these fools was at leadoff a lot.. ) What was the difference between Martin, Travis, Diaz, Gurriel, Grichuk, Pillar, Hernandez, Solarte and Maille?? OK. No one probably cares but I will explain some of the differences. Solarte - seemed to like to dance. Diaz - No difference between him and the group, he was the utterly average .290 .450 guy, so inevitably one of them had to be put at lead off (well on the days Granderson sat, and before the great Mckinney joined the team... so in truth none of the s***** hitters really spent time at leadoff, but I spent to much time making this reply to delete it now) Martin - Walked more than the others but can't hit .200 Travis - Used to hit .300 but now a.240 .290 guy. Gurriel - got two hits a game for a while but is regressing to .250 .290 guy... Pillar - Has been doing this for years, and doing a .290 obp even better now with a .270 obp. Hernandez - Got his own long running thread for hitting this way Grichuk - cool hair, hit in a face with a chair but otherwise has been doing the same thing for years. Maille - Not sure if he belongs in this group with his .327 obp but lack of power... seems like the kind of guy who should swing harder and be a .240 .290 .450 guy like the rest.

An interesting quote from the Shapiro interview Shapiro "Our current models are stochastic, that means a lot of it is random and hard to model, sure guys like Vlad Guerrero have a higher degree of certainty as to outcome, but Alford, Biggio, guys like that. You need dozens of those guys to get a few good players. One thing we are doing, to add certainty to the process, which I think some of the casual fans would appreciate, is we are looking at the message boards to try and find scouts. Some of the guys on the message boards, are making predictions with much more certainty than we can. So that is interesting to us. For example they have (thus far) correctly identified that Billy Mckinney is very comparable to high level players like Justin Upton, and thus far that has played out, in a small sample size admittedly, but it has played out as they predicted, and it's interesting to us. So we are looking at the message boards as a means to add certainty to some of our predictions."

That is really an amazing quote... In my experience casuals in any field just don't like uncertainty. Genius investment guy "We don't know for sure but some percentage of the current environment is being artificially manipulated by the central banks. No one knows how that will end or when, but we triple hedge for uncertainty, and structure investments to limit downside risk. We can't guarantee any near term returns. But there are scenarios where unexpected things will happen, which we can't even predict, but because of the stochastic nature of our strategy, we still benefit from" Casual "mother f***ing egghead ain't touching my money". Phony Bob - "We're not political here, but we love what Trump is doing, just the common sense things, not the nonsense, it's got us in a positive cycle, and if you look at what happened in the 80s and 90s, well remember that was a 20 year cycle. Right now we're at year 8, and this is definitely going to be a longer cycle then the Reagan cycle. This is just the start. This bull market has 15 years left. At least 15 years. You need to get in now, your money in the bank is losing value every day." Casual - "Thanks Phoney Bob - here is my life savings!!!!"

It's a free world. You are free to start a thread on every position if you so desire. Now, that being said, the moderators, having achieved their position, and acting as representatives of the ownership of this board, have every right to close your threads, or to combine them into one. And that being said, the ownership of the board has every right to discipline or fire the moderators if they don't like their actions. So I say start the threads and see what happens. In the end it could well be that the mods and owners won't even care either way about your threads, but the common people, the bottom feeders will decide if the threads are worthy (they will post on them creating more interest and more will post) or not worthy (no one will post on the thread and will fade to obscurity).

That's a good point. However I hope next year he just lays off the 91 mph fastballs. Sure he can them into the seats. We know that, but it doesn't matter. The organization needs to work with him, to lay off everything except 98 mph fastballs on the corners of the strike zones, and filthy breaking stuff in the zone. He needs to concentrate on swinging at those pitches to see if he can hit major league pitching. He needs to take 91 mph down the middle, even if it's strike three... it's just padding the stats and decieving everybody when he hits those..

Of course it counts. Your logic is really flawed. Every at bat counts. Even if you think a homerun against a pitcher throwing 91 has a net value of zero, then other event's have a net negative value. If a guy strikes out against the same guy, in your logical system it's a HUGE negative flag, since hitting a homerun is nothing, the strikeout is very negative. Even a single against a bad minor league pitcher is bad in your system, because the homerun is nothing. Steamer projects Pentecost to hit .230 .260 .360 in the majors. He'd hit some homeruns if they played him every day, but he'd hit bad overall. I agree with you that people get too excited about young players that go on a flukey hot streak, but this idea that "the stats are ********" is ********. The irony in this entire thing is that all these players that you are "predicting" will fail, are doing exactly what the stats predict. Teoscar is hitting exactly what the stats predicted he would... actually he's still hitting hitting better than the stats said. Baseball Prospectus predicted he would hit .239 .302 .439, and he's hit for a bit more power.

I agree with you. It wasn't even 300 at bats and his career milb on base percentage is .348

I certainly hope there was a difference in philosophy, and Gibby wasn't willing to implement some of the things the front office wanted. It seemed a few weeks ago they were experimenting with "bullpen days" and the opener concept just a bit... then that went away. With several young pitchers, and several struggling pitchers, it would seem the perfect time to experiment with some of that... but it hasn't happened. So my speculation is that maybe that Gibby wasn't into that new fangled s***, and so they are parting on good terms. If Gibby was willing to do whatever the front office wanted, and they still are letting him go... then it's total s***.

Also Mckinney per 162 games 162 610 515 181 48 0 38 76 133 .352 .438 .667 1.104 The only player I can recall having numbers like this is classic Larry Walker... and that was in Colorado.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/billy-mckinney-pads-blue-jays-lead-solo-hr/ The homerun last night reminded me of classic Olerud from the 93 series On second thought Mckinney has a nice swing, but a lot of movement compared to Olerud, It's pretty unbelievable how effortless Olerud was.

With changing pitching patterns, and assuming he performs, he could be ready to help sometime in 2020. Osuna went from Pardinho's stage (17 year old rookie ball) to full time closer in three years, with a Tommy John mixed in. A lot of things would have to go right, but if the Jays were contending and Pardinho was doing well, he could be up in some sort of "opener" type roll in late 2020...

It's hilarious, Keith's personal view of Fernando Tatis's and Bo Bichette's defense moves Vlad and Bo, from a 1-5ish combo, to a 2-20ish combo Law's exact words (with very mild Olerud363 style exaggeration, meaning OK. It's exaggerated a tad, but not as much as you would think.) Keith Law - "I am Keith Law. And I have to this say. Vlad Guerrero is not a number prospect despite historical hitting stats. You see he is a fat man that cannot play third base. Fernando Tatis in the number one prospect. He is an expert short stop. A great short stop. A defensive whiz, such a defensive whiz that his 109 strikeouts in 80 games don't matter. They do not matter. Fernando Tatis Jr. strikes out at a rate of 200 per 160 games. Vladimir Guerrero strikes out at a rate of 50 per 160 games. However Vald Guerrero is a fat man and Fernando Tatis is an ace short stop. An ace I say. And I have to this say. Bo Bichette cannot play short stop. He cannot. He just cannot. Fernando Tatis is an ace short stop. Bo Bichette is not a short stop. He is not. I saw him play three times. Thus Toronto does not have a) the number one prospect overall a second top 10 prospect They have a 2 guy, maybe 3, and a 20. Bo Bichette cannot play short stop. Fernado Tatis jr. can. Thank you. Keith Law, expert short stop defense evaluator.

I'm not sure of the context of that statement. Maybe he just meant they have a tonne of depth at every position, and while, it's not that hard to add more players like they have, it's hard to go to the next level. Outfield they'd have to upgrade on Randal Grichuk/Mckinney/Pillar, third base Vlad, short stop Bo/Diaz, second base Gurriel/Biggio, 1st base Smoak/Morales/Tellez, Catcher Jansen/Martin Of course you can upgrade a fair bit (with the exception of Vlad, and Bo if he develops like we hope), but your looking at a more significant free agent, or a 3-1 prospect for established player type swap. Or maybe he's out there and thinks all these players are awesome.

After a lot of deep thought I believe that Billy Mckinney is the next Domonic Brown You may not remember but at his peak in 2013 Brown had an extremely typical Justin Upton like season. In fact if you took an average Justin Upton season , and Brown's 2013 they would look exactly the same. No one would be able to tell the difference. Billy Mckinney's peak = Domonic Brown peak = Justin Upton average

What specific risks do you think they should take which they haven't??

He is a fat teenager with bad knees. This just means there is a level of risk here, that there wouldn't be if he had a better physique and didn't miss 5 weeks this year. The good news is he came back and hit well. It wasn't a Tulo/Donaldson situation where he was 3 days away from "running the bases" for several months (which was my fear and so far I've been wrong about that). After not walking for a month and bottoming out at .260 Bichette has returned to 2017 form... so maybe, just maybe that gives us back a second super prospect to hang our hats on... Or maybe Bichette still doesn't walk enough, after bottoming out he passed my stat scouting by walking a reasonable amount lately... but I heard Tercet think he's still too impatient. That could be based on real scouting and video of Bichette swinging at bad pitches. I don't know....

I have a relative who is a casual, great guy, smart guy, but doesn't know a tonne of baseball stuff. When I mentioned Vladdy he makes a point to emphasize that AA acquired him. He is royally pissed they released Goins as that would of solved the short stop "problem". He tells me that the front office messed up Tulo and Donaldson, and that AA would of kept them on the field. It' all about the relationship with the trainers. He hates Shapiro to an extreme and claims he won't watch the Jays until Shapiro is gone. He says he was a jerk in moneyball and is a jerk now.

What's pretty clear to me, is that certain posters, among the "elite" class are purposely dividing the lower class in order to cement their own power. "They", the elites are establishing a neofeudal serfdom in numerous ways. "Us" the working people, are forced to endure spectacle and fake controversy, that is purposely used to pit us against each other. Take for example the recent "Billy Mckinney is the next Justiin Upton" controversy. What began as an innocent off the cuff comment, by Grant, was repeated out of context, over and over, by the elites. Eventually frustrated posters, like myself, joined the chorus even starting threads about it (see "Billy Mckinney comparables" thread). Such threads only resulted in a lack of unity, exactly as the elites intended.

As much as I went on about the Vlad injury, this one is a better example of the insidious chronic injury that is never well explained and goes on forever. The nightmare scenario I kept on ranting about for Vlad, has actually happened here. It started off day to day, and just kept going. Gurriel gets wiped out at second is screaming, and is back in 3 weeks. Pillar's injury apparently could of killed him he's back in two and a half weeks (instead of 8). Grichuk back in 3 from his injury. Diaz carted off, back in 3 or 4. Vlad Guerrero jr, has career ending knee issues, and is back in 5 weeks. Donaldson and Tulo out for months with chronic stuff.

Not trolling, in that I'm not really looking into getting into a fake fight, or get a reaction, just making the point in a sort of sarcastic way I guess. If your asking whether Vlad Jr. will hit better if the Jays get a second star, the answer is no. Or atleast I'm not aware of any evidence that shows Vlad would hit significantly better in a better lineup. If you think he'll hit the road running, and immediately be a 7 win player, and you are wondering whether we should get more stars and make a run right away, the answer is... I don't know. Say the Jays are a 75 win team this year, and 75 projected next year (without Vald). Add Vlad. You think Vlad is going to be Pujols right away and add 6 wins (he replaces one of the many 1 WAR guys)... so now they project to 81. Do you try and add a few more wins to get into the wild card hunt?? If that's your question it's a more interesting one.

it reminds me of when Frank Thomas came up with a young white sox team back in '91. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHW/1991.shtml it could of been a disaster as Frank was the best hitter in a generation and had no protection, but management and the players realized this and really rallied around big Frank. In particular Fisk, Robin Ventura (who was also very young), and Dan Pasqua worked as a unit to make sure Frank was surrounded by good hitters. Martin should be able to handle the Fisk role. Given that Morales has turned it around he could contribute what Pasqua did. So you really just need a third guy to help out. Bo Bichette may eventually be able to do what Ventura did, however I doubt he'll be ready for that next year. Here's an off the wall idea. Why not get Pillar to help out here?? We've always thought that Pillar has had a breakout season in him... thus far it hasn't happened. Put Pillar in as a Vlad protector/table setter and it might inspire him to pick it up a notch.

He's only had 250 at bats or so in aaa this year. So it's not like the .295 on base percentage is even through one full season. It's a half season. A couple of guys who also put up low on base percentages in the upper minors but were fairly successful. (I saw these guys when looking at Kole Calhoun's comparables) Paul O'Neil - hit .254 .291 .399 in Denver in ~ 190 at bats. Josh Reddick - had a .301 on base percentage in Pawtucket in 480 at bats or so (not that he's an on percentage machine in the majors, but he's still hit OK). Not that that this means he'll be successful. He could also be the next Gabe Gross or John Ford Griffin.

There is actually a science to it. It's imperfect science, but it is a science. The prediction systems are AI systems. They work by learning from previous examples. It's not a complete crap shoot. If you have two groups of minor league players, with different performance levels, the system is good at predicting what the players will do as a group. What the system is not good at doing is talking a group of guys who are comparable and picking out the one that will be the outlier. What I am interested in. 1. If you take a bunch of guys that are at the same stage as Billy Mckinney, what is the expected outcome?? 2. What is the optimistic outcome?? 3. Who are the guys that are comparable to Billy Mckinney at the same age? The first two questions can be answered by looking at data from prediction systems. The 3rd one is an interesting discussion. Anyway I started the thread admittedly making fun of Grant, so I deserve getting slammed back, I set myself up for that.

I just have a hard time comparing McKinney to extremely high rated prospects, Upton was a 1st overall pick, and Cliff Floyd was the number one rated prospect by baseball america in 1994. I'm more interested in hearing about the guys, who were at the same level as McKinney as 23-24 year olds, but surprised anyway.