Olerud363

I absolutely agree with you, that's why I made it clear that he's having a "good for age" season. I was just making the point that there were a couple of times it looked like he was getting really hot and headed for a .900 OPS and a plain old "good" season, then he takes a step back. I can't find the game logs, but I feel like he hasn't walked in about 20 games. I actually follow the stats pretty closely, and one thing that I like to see is 1 walk every 2 games, and I recall Bichette reaching that level (30 walks in 60 games), but now he's at 80 games still 30 walks.

I'm not sure I get this reference. What's wrong with everyone... it's just a bit of satire mixed with truth. Bo Bichette - good prospect having a frustrating year. Frustrating in that every time it looks like he's really about to take off, he goes into another mini slump. Frustrating in that he hasn't walked in a month. Frustrating in the every time it looks like he'll make a run at .300 he goes back to .270... and times running out. Minor league seasons are short. Looks now like Bo is going to have a "good for age" season, not a great season. At times it looked Bichette was going to rake for a few weeks, and move up to Alex Bregmann level as a hitting prospect... but instead he forgot how to walk, and went 1 for 20.

The prospect list is a bit of a joke, and a bit of reality, reflecting who is on fire right now and whos not.... My five top prospects are all very young, very intriguing, and have done very well the last couple of weeks, save Anthony Alford who has actually done OK the last couple of weeks, but is more of a inside joke. My comments on Vlad are actually quite realistic. July 8th - at this point Vlad will not be returning July 8th. That's pretty clear. July 14th. This is now the best case scenario, assuming when he finally tries to jog to first, he feels no pain. Back for the July 14th weekend and makes the futures game. The best case scenario rarely happens. So likely he misses the futures game but maybe comes back after the all star break. July 19th. That could happen, and I hope it does. If it doesn't then we begin a phase where "Vlad is running but can't go all out"... and that drags on, and on, and actually if it goes on for two or three weeks the minor league season is almost over, and it makes no sense to bring him back. And then you have a good hitter, with bad knees, who missed the majority of the season, and has serious questions.

By the way new top 5 prospects 1. Anthony Alford - Still the top athlete in the system 2. Eric Pardinho - The next Pedro Martinez 3. Jordan Groshans - A new hope 4. Cal Stevenson - Barry Bonds on base percentage, lots of time to develop the power. 5. Reese McGuire - Getting hot with the bat and calls a great game (seriously, according to many posters on BJMB, Reid Foley has a 40.00 ERA with the other guy, 1.88 with McGuire). Why your favourite player did not make the list (they will make the top 100 when I compile that, so don't worry) 1. Vlad Guerrero Jr. - Call me back when he can actually jog around a bit 2. Bo Bichette - Every time you think he's finally getting hot, he goes 1/20 3. Danny Jansen - His average is converging to McGuire's and according to BJMB Reid Foley can't pitch to him 4. Reid Foley - Pitching good lately, but if he needs McGuire as a personal catcher it's a risk. Love McGuire but what if I'm wrong on him and he's another Josh Thole?? 5. Kevin Smith - Call me back when he stops striking out 3 times a game in Dunedin.

Not doomed yet. I was positive a couple of days ago when they announced the running program... this is pretty bad news though. The fact that they are hinting that he still can't run without discomfort is not good. The July 8th return doesn't look like it will happen. The great Vlad Guerrero Jr. re-evaluation new conference, where they announce he is back on the plane to New Hampshire doesn't look like it will happen. The news conference will go something like this. Blue Jays Central Special Announcement - "We had hoped to announce that Vlad Guerrero Jr. is on his way to New Hampshire to play today. Unfortunately he has not tried to run yet. He will do that in a few days. He will not play today July 8th, however he will be running very soon. In a few days. What is a few days?? It is a short time period. He will probably try to run Tuesday or Thursday. That is July 10th or 12th. I am sure it will be fine. He will run very well. He will be back on the 14th." So it's pushed back Original Vlad return date - July 8th New Vlad return date (he has to try to run first) - July 14th So it begins.

This is like terrible... 1. Groshan big, Groshan awesome, Groshan huge man. Groshan Huge raw power. OK. So Groshan is the next A-Rod?? Ripken?? Tulo?? Troy Glauss?? No Groshan huge man just like Jeter. Groshan huge raw power = Jeter?? Line drive guy?? 2. Alford hasn't been able to translate his success to aa/aaa?? Ummm.. he had a great year at aa last year. This guy apparently doesn't even know how to read milb.com. Isn't that like a basic requirement??

Pillar is basically a 2.5 WAR player. At first glance he's the kind of guy people would over-rate, low obp, awesome defense by the eye test, but since everyone expects him to be over-rated, he's become under-rated.

Thank you. I am sure you are just being sarcastic. I will always admit when I am wrong. This week all indications are Vladimir Jr. is on track to come back soon. Very good news if accurate. I have tentatively returned Vladimir up to fourth on my top 100 Blue Jay prospects, behind Alford, Bichette, and Smith. (I had dropped Vlad to 11th in the Jays system at the peak of "re-evaluate-gate". Alford (climbing) - Don't let the Buffalo numbers fool you. Best Athlete in the system, think Kevin Pillar with a .350 on base percentage. 6 WAR per year. Bo Bichette (falling) - Went 0/5 yesterday. A few cold streaks this year are concerning, but scouts say his defense has improved 4.8 WAR per year. Kevin Smith (climbing) - Hit a homerun yesterday. Numbers look good. Striking out to much in Dunedin. 4.6 WAR per year. Vlad Guerrero (climbing) - Health is coming around. Our projections last week had him in the Nick Johnson health level, but we've moved him up to Mike Greenwell health level. If current trends continue, and he defeats this injury he could move even higher. (4.3 WAR per year, in projected 107 games per year)

I don't think he ever had a problem with consistency. At least not this year. Maybe last. The issue was he gave up 8 runs in an inning his first Buffalo start. I'm not sure he was really hit hard or anything, just one of those things. His ERA would be just hovering around 2-3 the whole time if it wasn't for the one start.

Good point. A lot of depth. 11 short stops who "stat scout" as legit prospects (stat scout also includes second hand accounts of real scouting reports).

Blue Jays top 10 short stop prospects (not a real list, but still interesting, as there is a lot of depth at this position, I'm not a real scout, please let me know who I missed or badly over/under rated. My methodology was very good. I went to MILB.com and looked at all the short stops playing in the Jays system, and ranked them according to what I read on BJMB) 1. Bichette 2. Smith 3. Gurriel 4. Groshans 5. Jiminez 6. Hidalgo 7. Vicanu 8. Espinal 9. Urena 10. De Los Santos Honorable mention - Troy Tulowitzki (not technically a prospect but is bound to be coming back any day now and will take a stop through minors on the way back to T.O.)

These are all positive signs. It sounds the re-evaluation could go great. I won't totally buy into it yet. The official re-evaluation isn't until July 8th, and until they announce he is on his way back North I won't get my hopes up... but the chatter is positive.

He also has the same k/bb as last year. Probably a little positive luck last year, a little negative this year... plus he's two levels up with better defenses and pitching obviously.

Buck and Pat report that Vlad is taking BP and on a running program. Hopefully good news. I would love to be proven wrong about this. I will say Troy Tulowitzki was also taking BP and on a running program starting a few weeks ago. I wonder how that is progressing.

I totally believed this when Randall made that catch. I think they were 11 back at that moment, but only 4 or 5 out of 2nd for the Wild Card and Seattle sucks. However when Begman hit that homer I stopped believing. And that's actually logical. For the wild card to happen everything has to go right, so when one thing goes wrong by definition everything didn't go right.

I've never said he is going to retire. I was quite precise on my prediction. In that the injury is serious, effects his long term outcome, and he is basically going to skip the first half of Frank Thomas's career and start off at the second half. That is still a helpful player. Some almost MVP seasons between injuries and absences, a decent but frustrating dh. I hope I'm wrong. I hope on July 9th he is playing and raking. I suspect we just won't hear anything, and before you know it, it will be August, and the rest of the board we'll be freaking out, and realistically there won't be time for him to come back for the minor league season (it ends Sep 1st or so).

Alford went 3/5 with a homerun and a double tonight. He is on the comeback trail. I heard I was going to win most annoying poster award, but it looks like you are on the comeback trail too. What do you think will happen at Vlad's re-evaluation?? Will you watch it live? They will probably stream it. Most here think he will be back in the lineup late next week. I am thinking we just won't hear anything for a while. Like July 22nd everybody will still be wondering what is going on.

It looks like Groshans played today but left again after three at bats. Does anyone know what's up with him?? I guess this probably triggers an automatic re-eveluation, so he'll probably be out a couple of weeks ago. And no I'm not trying to be a jerk. I think if a young minor league player tries to come back, and can't even make it through a game, this front office will sit him for a couple of weeks, and send him for re-evaluation. I guess it's not that bad a policy. Hopefully they just don't get on the Tulo Time table... waiting until opening day to get your surgery.

It's a shame Michael Jordan didn't get to play another year. He was a bit better than Tebow his first year, and it would of been fascinating to see what improvements he would of made his second.

The big injury was a fluke thing, getting hit by a comebacker, as opposed to a chronic injury. Alford has had a bunch of chronic injuries that are also probably effecting his performance. Neither has needed re-evaluation though, which is a good thing. Pearson was hit by a mother-f***ing comebacker so the situation was pretty clear-cut, no need to re-evaluate it, he broke his f***ing arm **, and Alford has mostly played through it. ** Pearson also had a back thing before the comebacker broke his arm, if that continues he may have to go for the murky and dreaded re-evaluation.

He is only 19. He's hitting .234. However his power and k-rate is pretty good for a 19 year old (20 in a couple weeks) in full season.

That's reasonable enough. However he's also has a lot less games played then Ramirez... meaning there is less certainty about what he is. After a good start to his career Ramirez has stalled in aa for 3 years.

After Ortiz left the Red Sox offense completely collapsed. They were terrible in 2017 and were so desperate they signed an extremely risky player with no defensive value in J.D. Martinez. Sure the offense is a bit better this year, but they wasted 100 million on a DH to compensate for their other weaknesses. Betts and Benintendi are good players, but playing over their heads right now. When everyone regresses to their career rates, the offense won't be that good. There's no arguing with that, it's simple facts and numbers.

Any idea what his defense is like??

He's just been sent for re-evaluation. No big deal.