Olerud363

More from the Keith Law chat Brad from London, Ontario - Keith, you say that Tatis' injury is a fluke, but Guerrero's is a sign of more to come?? Why?? I thought both were expected to be fine for Spring Training?? In fact Guerrero came back from his injury right on time and looked great the second half. Keith - "Tatis simply slid awkwardly and strained his thumb. Not the kind of thing that is likely to be chronic or happen again. Tatis is a graceful athlete and will be careful to be more controlled in the future. This is a learning experience for him and he will be disciplined on the bases going forward. Guerrero on the other hand ran over first base awkwardly and strained his knee. I talked to a scout who was there and he said that Guerrero stumbled over the bag because he is literally too fat to get out of his own way. That's not going to fix itself and will likely lead to more injuries."

Here are his write ups Vlad Guerrero Jr - I ranked him second but it was probably too high. A fat third basemen who should of been a DH yesterday isn't the best prospect in baseball. Tatis is as good with the bat, and can play on the field. There are also injury concerns, which Tatis doesn't have. Other than a fluke injury that cost him a couple of months Tatis knows how to stay on the field. Guerrero on the other hand missed several weeks but his injuries were not flukes. Guerrero does have an elite k-rate, but it will make little difference. Even though Tatis will strike out twice as much and walk half as much, Tatis still has the advantage here, as when Tatis is striking out Guerrero will simply be hitting double play balls into the shift. I almost never believe in the base clogging theory, but Guerrero is a rare exception. He may walk 100 times a year, but it will take 3 singles to get him around. When you factor in the double plays and base clogging Tatis will have more value with a 30-120 bb/k ratio than Guerrero would with a 100-60. (Truth be told I have Guerrero ranked 32nd, however I fudged the ranking a bit to avoid having my in box flooded by insufferable Blue Jays fans). Bo Bichette - 92nd - Truth be told he's a non-prospect. I saw him play 5 times last year, and I can guarantee that he won't stick at short and maybe not at second. His average dropped 80 points against better defenses and his power never really showed up. In the majors he projects as a .260 hitter, with 20 walks and 10 homers. That's pretty much it...

This was a legitimate discussion at the all-star break of 2012. Trout was born in 1991, Lawrie in 1990, there was about 18 months differences in real age (which was 2 years on their baseball cards). Both came up in 2011. Trout struggled, Lawrie was awesome. In the first half of 2012 Trout was awesome. Lawrie was good. All star break 2012 their career numbers through 100ish games were almost the same. That was about the high point of Lawrie's career.

Binary as in each TOOL is either on or off. Holy f*** you are an unpleasant arrogant awful human being. Here are the five tools Avg Power Speed Defense Arm Each can be either 0 or 1, you could code them using a 5 bit number with values from 0 to 31 if you wanted. Here is a question what number would we use to represent Vladimir Guerrero You MORON?? The answer is 31. Note I said Vladimir Guerrero and not Vlad JR. Vlad JR. would be 25 (Assuming the order is (from high to low bit) is Avg Power Speed Defense and Arm Jr. would be 1 1 0 0 1 which is 25) Or if you don't think Vlad has the arm he would be 24. And aren't you running a f***ing blog?? I'm an ******* sometimes, but I don't need anyone here to like me. I don't have a blog or any venture for people to visit. Isn't the first rule of having a blog, that you are nice to people so they visit it sometimes?? MORON

How many tools a player has does not = WAR Andre Dawson early 80s 5 tools = 5 WAR Barry Bonds early to mid 90s 5 tools = 10 WAR Barry Bonds early 2000s (bloated with Steroids and old) 2 tools = 12 WAR Vladdy could be a 2 tool 4 WAR player - .300 .400 .500 with negative defense or a 2 tool 10 WAR player - .340 .450 .600 with average defense. I guess a binary 5 tool system is just a little stupid. Maybe a 3 way system, like fangraphs has, where people rate what he's going to be offensively, baserunning, and defensivelly and roughtly translate that to WAR would help us communicate better. Like maybe I think that Vladdy is going to be a .380 .480 .700 hitter with average defense and baserunning, which might be 0 80 0 and translate to 11 WAR or something and they say "Olerud you are a nut case Vladdy will realistically be a .310 .400 .550 hitter with negative D, which puts him as a 0 50 -15 and 5 WAR" Just saying that system would allow people to convey their projection better than the 5 tool system.

The five tool system isn't a great way to evaluate how "great" Vlad will be. If he hits really well and can put up 0's defensively he will be at Griffey, Pujols, A-Rod, approaching Trout level (9-10 WAR guys) If he hits really well and is a big negative defensively he will be at the Frank Thomas, Miguel Cabrera level (6-8 WAR guys) So if he's in the first category he's at another level, but you still might not call him a "5 tool" player.

What if they started counting from the moment the player was signed. Maybe 12 years for International signings, 10 for High School, and 8 for College. I don't know exactly how you'd figure out the arbitration. However aim to get most players to free agency between 28-30, and also eliminate the disincentive to call up 19-20 year old potential superstars.

I don't think younger people realize that on the day Gillick "retired" the Jays were set up to win a couple more times Olerud - 24 had just won a batting title and had another 8 WAR year, and a 6 year 30 WAR run in him (unfortunately it would happen with the Mets/Mariners).... Alomar - 25 had established himself as a perrenial MVP candidate and also had a 6 year 30 WAR run left to go (for the Orioles/Indians).... Delgado, Gonzales, Green - Were all 21 and by far the best prospect trio in baseball. Paul Molitor and Devon White - still had a little left They kept Carter, platooned Delgado and Green, and Olerud, Alomar, Molitor and White were gone in a couple of years. If they could of kept these guys, developed Green and Delgado a little quicker and had them all together with Clemens it would of been something.

Fair enough. Keep on ranting.

As someone who has gone over the top many times, I've learned it's good for entertainment value but doesn't really get you anything else. So Dick_Poles rant, while being entertaining and bringing up valid points, won't get her to change her mind. But anyway, reasonable people, who are good at politics, and have a record of making people change their mind, should get on this, and make sure he's in as a Blue Jay.

Even the next Ryan Goins could have some value. Goins contributed 1 WAR to the 2015 team, if Brito became a replacement player, and held his own when needed to fill in on a contender that would be a fair return in exchange for 2019 Martin.

Just as a public service reminder if Tercet wants to show he has any ability to predict prospect outcomes he needs to pepper in the 20-25% that his keen scouting eye has detected will overperform. Most prospects fail, predicting they'll fail isn't a prediction unless you also predict who will overperform. Furthermore the concensus opinion is correct on average. If Tercet is predicting several guys will underperform, then Tercet's prediction will be worse than other predictions. He needs to identify prospects who will overperform. Otherwise his long term predictions will be too low.

Grant calls everyone who calls him out a 'troll'. He doesn't understand what Trolling is. You are only a troll if you make statements, that you know are false, just to get someone going. Here is an example. "Grant is a cherry picker and a deceptive poster" a) if you think Grant is an honest lad with integrity, and presents data fairly and without bias, but you say "Grant is a cherry picker and a deceptive poster" just to have a laugh and get Grant going, then you my friend are indeed a troll. if your true opinion is that "Grant is a cherry picker and a deceptive poster" you're not a troll. That just happens to be your true opinion which you believe in and you stated.

Hi Carlos I was 15 years old when this trade happened. I was on a road trip to Toronto and in the Eaton's center. The TVs at the time were much smaller then we have today, and I could occasionally see images of McGriff and Fernandez on the TVs throughout the day but didn't think much of it. I could not really read the words (which must of said "Blockbuster Trade" scrolling by, because, as I mentioned the TVs were just way smaller, and not in every single restaurant and storefront. Just thought it was an end of year recap or something. When I got home (it was a bus trip) very late. My Dad told me about the trade. I didn't know much about Roberto Alomar so I ran up to get my "Bill James Baseball Book", to see what Bill thought. He liked Alomar a lot, so that made me feel better about the trade.

Alomar was 22 and had just finished his 3rd year, with WAR of 3.9, 3.8, and 3.0. Toronto Traded 10.4 1990 fWAR, for 1 1990 fWAR It worked out because a) Alomar developed into an even better player Carter went back to being 1988 Carter c) The Jays of 1983 to 1993 were very well run and were contending every year anyway. It's hard to come up with an equivalent trade. Basically it was a giant WAR mismatch that worked out. A trade like that will never happen again. Imagine trading for Chris Davis, or Matt Kemp after a bad year, or Vernon Wells age 30 as part of a large package. WAR would stop it. + the contracts are longer.

When does it ever end?? What if he gets another minor injury just before June?? Then What?? It's July 20th and he's back... takes him a couple weeks to get in the swing a things, it's August 12th... All of a sudden it doesn't make sense to call him up for just 6 weeks... So keep him down all year, then keep down two weeks in April, then why not two more months in 2020, so we get super two.... it never ends. If he hadn't of gotten injured he should been called up June 14th 2018 at 11:00 a.m. and bused to Toronto for that nights game. Instead he got injured which made it stupid to call him up for 6 weeks,.

Same could be said of Roberto Osuna in 2014, and he became a lights out closer about 2 minutes after being bad and rusty in 20 Dunedin innings.

Interesting stuff. Who will be better Cavan Biggio or Vlad?? I heard from one of my sources that have watched Cavan Biggio that he MISSED several cookie cutter fastballs. Vald Guerrero Jr. - Crushes ONLY cookie cutter fastballs Cavan Biggio - MISSES cookie cutter fastballs. LOGIC - a system of thinking which one thing follows another Cavan Biggio has hit homeruns Vlad Guerrero Jr. has hit homeruns If Cavan Biggio MISSES cookie cutter fastballs, and IF he has hit home runs then logically he has hit the homeruns off of quality pitches. If Vlad Guerrero jr HAMMERS cookie cutter fastballs, THEN he probably misses quality pitches. Using logic and the scouting reports this screams PLATOON. Given one is lefthanded and one is right handed I think a platoon is in order where biggio faces mostly hard throwing right handers (Biggio misses COOKIE CUTTERS thus needs hard throwers) and Vald faces all lefties and right handed soft tossers (Vlad hammers cookies). Each get approximately half the playing time (as opposed to straight platoon where the lefty get 2/3 the playing time) final number Cavan 100 games played 314 at bats, .244 .355 .455 21 homers (off of hard fastballs) Vlad 103 games played 356 at bats .288 .370 19 homers (off of cookies) Together they are a decent platoon and may eventualy exceed the Mullinicks Garth Iorg platoon Using logic and the expert scouting reports we have on the board (real people seeing the players and understanding the pitches they can hit) we can design solutions to addresses the weaknesses.

What you are getting at is that we could see Pearson in 2019, maybe even early 2019. We saw exactly this in 2015 with Roberto Osuna -- basically became a good closer after missing most of 2013 and 2014. The other factor is there is a new role just called "pitching guy". "Pitching guy" can open, pitch in a few late inning situations, and pitch 3-5 middle innings when someone else opens. Getting maybe 100-115 innings in these various situations. Perfect role for Pearson, and maybe even Sanchez.

Check out his minor league numbers. He drew 150 walks with a .311 slugging percentage one year. He also had a .400 minor league on base average... Certainly it's not as simple as saying "You gotta walk more boys...". However as a hitter he appreciated the walk and have to believe he will appreciate it as a manager. I think that could be helpful. I don't think he'll just accept that Gurriel has a 10-1 k/bb ratio (unless he's doing other things exceptionally). He'll hopefully work with guys like Gurriel, Grichuk and Travis to be a little more patient, and encourage Guerrero, Smoak, Biggio, Jansen and others to take advantage of their superior eyes.

Well. This is somewhat interesting, but I don't know if Boxy was the original author. I remember seeing this post a couple years ago. That being said it's a pretty good post, in the older style of long involved conversation rather then the new style, that's much shorter (because of the difficulties typing long posts and reading them on the smart phone. So... if we are back to a bit of a longer post style, I have a few thoughts which I will number to make it a little more organized. 1. Congratulations to Spanky on 50000 posts. Great job a real legend. 2. Congratulations to Paul Beeston on being right about 2015. His original quote in 2013 ws "If we don't win this year, we'll win next year, and if not next year the year after that. And he was totally right about that (as the year after that was 2015), so even though I made of fun him he was correct. 3. What ever happened to Moogy?? Was Moogy Stoeten?? 4. Who should be the next manager?? What is it with people suggesting players like Tulo, Martin, and even Bautista?? You know you don't get to not pay them their players salary if they are manager. 5. It's still all about on base percentage. I know with the new analytics on base percentage is old school. But the Jays need to get the team on base percentage back to .330 or higher to contend in the East. Yankees and Red Sox, and even the Rays all will do it with money (get the best hitters) and smarts. So the Jays need to make sure the boys get on base. Little Vladdy will help in that respect, but guys like Grichuk need to do their part. Get it up over .315 at least. And Pillar... can't see how we can carry a guy with a .280 on base percentage especially a 30 year old. And Teoscar?? Needs to improve the defense and the on base percentage. Jansen looks like he can do the job (I predict a .340 on base percentage). But Mckinney?? Gurriel?? Diaz?? These guys don't get on base. Maybe they can learn how. 6. Do you guys think John Olerud could of made the hall of fame if he it wasn't for Cito Gaston?? Keep in mind Olerud had 8 WAR in 1993 and 1998 but was like a platoon player between those years. Cito should never of platonned him. I think Olerud would of had a much better career without Cito. Also Cito's hitting tips weren't very good, and if Olerud had betting hitting tips he would of done even better. 7. Counterpoint to 6 - In 2018 there is a flyball revolution, and Cito was all about pulling the flyballs. Pull the ball boys he would say! Why didn't it work in 2010?? I think it almost did, he cranked up the homers to like 250, but cranked down the on base percentage. If he just told the boys to keep pulling some fly balls, but allowed them to hit a flyball to the opposite field, and take a walk once and a while it would of all came together. OK. That's it. I don't know if I have that much to say. Nothing really to say on the Yankees facial hair rules. Wait. One more thing. It's about the #metoo, as I sense some people here are not really into all that, and they think that the social justice warriors are really taking over, to an extent that it's to much. I heard about... I think Sheryl Ring or somethign?? I've never really read her, or know much about the situation, but if she is fighting you, then maybe fight back?? I don't know a lot about this battle, but I have seen the NPC (Non Player Character) mems going around, and I have to admit they are kind of funny (even though I'm not an alt-righter really). So why not send Sherryl Ring some NPC memes if she is really being offensive to you?? Just an idea. Thanks for listening.

How would this be a win?? Are you assuming that we wouldn't have to pay them their guaranteed player contracts of ~20 million a year?? If so, of course it would be a win. However that is not the case. There is no way to get out of their player contracts. So if you made them managers, you would still be paying the 70 million owed to them, + you would have inexperienced managers. There is really no advantage to this scheme, over just releasing them. If you are going to look for a recently retired player to be manager, Tulo and Martin wouldn't have an advantage over the 100 other guys in that situation, and you'd be better off just finding the best recently retired player.

I agree with you, my post was just satire.

We have one guy who threw 11 straight balls once We have one guy who scouts as well as anyone but broke his arm and didn't play We have two guys who are crafty lefties and everyone is suspicous of that type We have one guy who has the numbers of an all time great, but is a 17 year old runt Those are 5 guys who are no ones, worth nothing, zero. Then the other guys we have are so forgettable that they are below those other 5 guys who are nothing They say there is no such thing as a pitching prospect... but there is. Pitching prospects 1. Are 6'2" or higher... ideally 6'4" 2. Throw very hard 3. Have excellent mechnaics 4. Have Padino like numbers, but aren't runty 5. Have consistent numbers 6. Never throw more than 5 balls in a row 7. have excellent scouting grades on all their pitches 8. Have a pristine health record No one else has a chance. We have no pitching prospects. And should trade Bo Bichette for one.

The big difference is strikeouts and defence. I've heard middling reports on Biggio's defence, and he strikes out far more than Zobrist. I think the Kelly Johnson comparison is a good outcome.