Olerud363

Don't be silly. Don't look at every single pitch. Just watch a guy for a few pitches you'll be able to tell right away what he is. Tercet is full of s***. He's dissing averigish prospects and pretending he's a guru. He's got a win/win con job going. He's dissing guys the stats say have weakness. The stats say Reid Foley will have a 4ish era. The stats say Teoscar Hernandez will hit .240 .300 .450. If these guys do what the stats say, Tercet "wins" because he can claim he saw it coming. If Tercet is such a genius why isn't he telling us which prospects are going to overperform?? If stats don't mean anything then logically there should be guys with bad stats, who Tercet can pick out who are actually good.

0 innings pitched, 7 walks, 14 straight balls to open the game, 4 walked in, 2 inherited runner score. 0 ks 28 balls, 3 strikes. Even the royals won't swing at SRFs balls... no major league would. Royals aren't good but they are major league hitters NOT minor league hitters. Jansen 0/4, as he will be tired out completely by SRF. Jansen will set up for spots several times and SRF will miss the spots completely. Even the three strikes will be missed spots. One of them right down the middle that may be hit for a homerun (I'm predicting the batter will take it though, because he will be so surprised it is near the zone).

The original question was "Which Blue Jays prospect has surprised you the most this season (good or bad)?" So in the context of the original question, bad obviously just means bad surprise.

You do realize Todd had the insight to rank Alford as 103rd or something on his list?? While Alford does not deserve to be ranked 103rd, it was probably the only way to effectively communicate the disaster that was about to unfold with Alford. Let's say Todd had ranked Alford 14th. You would have some spirited arguments, and Todd would be called an idiot by a poster or two, however it would not be memorable. Ranking him 103rd was pure genius. It got the message out, and at least for 2018 the message was 100% correct. btw when is this years top 100 coming out??

I posted that stat around beginning of July, and at the time Bichette had bottomed out in the .260s. I said his year was a "good for age" but not "great" year. Or something like that. Since then he's hit a bit better. Not that any of it might mean anything. It could just be random variation of a .300 .350 .480 or so "true talent" hitter. He may of been lucky his first couple of years and a bit unlucky this year.

30 would be hard. Pujols was about 22 his first three years, and his best 3 year run was 25. Mike Trout hasn't had a three year run of 30. I believe Barry Bonds is the last to have a three year run of 30 (35). He hit like (literally) .350 .540 .800 or something for three years. To hit 30 Vlad would have to hit .360 .470 .700 or something... or if he hits a little less contribute way more on defense and baserunning then we think he will.

A batter will always choose the strategy that allows him to be most successful. If bunting against the shift worked some one would do it and be a success. In fact why doesn't Jayson Werth do it?? He should join the Orioles next year, and show us all how bunting and hitting to the opposite field is the right way, It could be the story of the year. AP (Associated Press) - Veteran Ball Player proves the nerd's wrong. Jayson Werth doesn't believe in Math, and hates nerd's. A bad attitude?? Maybe but that bad attitude is going to lead to a batting title for the 39 year old. Werth is currently hitting a career high .365, half his 230 hits are either bunt singles or opposite field singles. He's on base over 300 times and is leading the AL with 139 runs. His Baltimore Oriole team mates have joined in on the fun. In 2018 Baltimore was a low average high strikeout team, so typical in modern baseball. However by cutting down on strikeouts, bunting against shifts, and using the opposite field Baltimore is aiming to be a last to first success story. The team batting average is .285, over 20 points ahead of the second place Boston (.263). And despite only hitting 120 homers, less than half that of the Yankees, Baltimore is outscoring NY. Chris Davis among other team mates is a believer in the new strategy. Davis is hitting .280, and his 120 ks are half as many as last year. Davis says "I've even hit more homeruns than last year (28 to 26), I popped a bunch to the opposite field. Wasn't even trying to hit them. Just trying to hit a ground ball single, and the homers came anyway. I owe it all to Jayson."

I'm not sure this is a good report or not. It's August 8th. Even if he's sprinting right now as we speak it's still probably a couple weeks before he plays... then again what do I know. I'll be an optimist here is the timeline Aug 9th - Donaldson sprints. Aug 10th - Rehab game Dunedin Aug 11th - Rehab game Dunedin Aug 12th - Rehab game Buffalo (Donaldson and Vlad go back to back in symbolic nod to past and future Blue Jay Champions) Aug 14th - Back to Toronto Aug 14th to 28th - 22/60 4 doubles, 2 triples, 6 homers (triples are important as it shows the scouts he can sprint like the wind) Aug 29th - Traded for great prospects.

Cal Stevension (GCL/BlueField) 21 projected to 160 games .520 obp, 160 walks, 40 doubles, 20 triples, 4 homers, 60 ks. ~ 4 walks for every k. He is 21, old for the league... Would be interesting to send him to Vancouver.... Alexander Kirk (19 year old catcherish DH) .328 .420 .580 or so. Power, walks, low strike outs. Lansing will be interesting again next year, especially if Groshans, Kirk, Stevenson, Moreno, and others are all there.

What the hell happened here?? I was at the Seattle games and don't recall any injury. I believe he had a minor wrist or hand injury before being traded. However the Saturday night game his swing looked great. He hit the ball hard a couple of times, especially a line drive double, if I recall correctly. I will say his throwing looked weak. I don't know if that was an injury, or he just has a subpar arm.

21 Ruth 13.9 Hornsbpy 11 22 Hornsbpy 11 (Ruth 6th 6 WAR) 23 Ruth 15 Hornsby 9.8 24 Ruth 12.5 Hornsby 12.5 25 Hornsby 11 or something Ruth 3.6 (like 40th) 26 Ruth 12 Gerhig 7 27 Ruth 13 Gerhrig 12.5 28 Ruth 12 Gerhrig 11 Above numbers are aproximate as I copied them from fangraphs. 1. Babe Ruth did not have 15 WAR seasons. He had 1 (one) 15 WAR season. In that season he dwarfed everyone. 2. Babe Ruth was often in a close race with Hornsby, and later Gerhrig for the WAR lead. Just like Trout is in close races with Donaldson, or Ramirez or whoever. 3. Babe Ruth had a couple of bad, injury riddles seasons in which he was way down in WAR. Question for those who have honesty and integrity. Is the difference between Ruth and Hornsby (and/or Gehrig) bigger than the difference between Trout and whoever you think is second best??

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-stats-class-a-park-factors/c-210987116 If I read this right the difference between Ashville and Lansing is pretty extreme, which makes what Ryan Noda, Kevin Smith, Lundquist, are doing seem a bit more impressive.

Thanks. That puts it in perspective a bit. Looks like Ashville stats have to be taken with a grain of salt.

Just curious why you think his power won't develop?? He's already showing good line drive power. 25 double, 10 triples, 10 homers, per 150. It seems to me players often increase their power in the major leagues.

No he's a 2% chance at Ryan Howard, maybe a 15% chance at slugging 1st basement who can a help a good team have a good year. I mean Chris f***ing Colabello helped a good team have a good year. I think people are overrating the entire prediction industry... both the scouting part and the analytics part. Look at the 2015 Blue Jays leader in rWar https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2015.shtml Other than David Price none of those players were top prospects, it's a collection of guys who were on the scrap heap at one point. Josh Donaldson looked worse than Drury at 25. Jose Bautista and Edwin came from the scrap heap. Estrado was a 6th starter. I mean is it crazy to think Spanberger could be Colabello without the steroids?? That he could be a piece on a good team someday?? Not that he will, or even likely will, but just that he could with some probability, and it's a reasonable partial return for a decent reliever.

How often do guys show the kind of power Spanberger has?? He's hit 41 homeruns in a seasons worth of games, and has a lifetime .590ish slugging percentage. That may mean nothing... who knows. However I'd be interested in seeing who his top 10 comparables are and what happened to them, before rushing to judgement.

You do realize that Chad Spanberger has a lifetime .595 slugging percentage ?? He's an interesting lottery ticket. Forrest Wall is a former 1st round high schooler who has been a bit up and down, and seems to have had a major injury last year. This year he may be running into some bad luck in aa, as his numbers look OK other than avg. I highly doubt either of them will be ranked below Alford on Todd's list. Todd seems to be pretty stubborn about Alford, and I am guessing Alford will rank 110th or lower after the trade deadline, once Todd has a chance to evaluate the new acquisitions and a lot of the new draft picks.

Even as a left fielder he'd have to play good defense to be valuable... If he ends up being a .240 .330 .440 guy he'll need a bit of defense to go with that.

I just looked up that trade and it was kind of a weird trade with a bunch of pieces going each way, but McGriff was an 18 year old who tore up a short season league. Hard to see that kind of trade happening these days, to much information on the players. Jays got McGriff, George Bell, and Gruber, and probably other totally under the radar. (Bell and Gruber being rule 5 guys)

Cone was traded for a couple of pitching prospects that never made it. Wells was never traded to the Yankees. He was released and made it to the Yankees after going through Detroit, Baltimore and Cinninatti. Clemens was traded for Wells, Homer Bush, and Loyld Graham. Amazingly Wells and Homer Bush outperformed Clemens significantly in 1999/2000. Clemens went on to have several more great years though, in the 2000s. If Halladay and Carpenter could of become Halladay and Carpenter at a younger age it would all been pretty awesome in 1999-2001

Using advanced milb to mlb translator, which accounts for the number of balls out of the zone that mlb hitters would not have swung at his line was pathetic. 2 innings pitched, several walks. innings pitched 2 walks 7 hits 4 earned runs 5

Alford sucks this year only. Pompey doesn't suck but plays 50 games a year if that.

You need more data to see if he's broken.... If he gets injured again bad. If he plays but hits poorly for the rest of the season bad. Hitting poorly may be hard to detect given the sample size. So only if he hits really awful for 40 games, or has a much porrer k/bb or something will we get any data. If he hits .260 .340 .440 with good k/bb and poor babip that doesn't tell us anything.

'We' as in my team of data analysts. We have our own formulas and they indicate that if Vlad does not play tomorrow or Sunday that is a bad thing. If he misses one of those games it's no big deal. If he does not show up in Buffalo early next week it's also a bad thing.... If he shows in Buffalo early next week it's a very good thing.

Not 100 WAR -- Vlad Projection early June - 83 career WAR Vlad Projection after 1 month injury announcement - 27 career WAR Vlad Projection after re-evaluation passes with no concrete news - 11 WAR Vlad Projection after scoring on a double today - 39 WAR So it knocked off 72 WAR, not quite 100, he's back to 39 career WAR. At this point one actually expects him to be pulled after 2-3 at bats. That's very typical on a rehab assignement. Even if he's not in the line up tomorrow that's OK. If he's not in the lineup Saturday or Sunday then we start to freak out again. If he's back in Buffalo early next week, and stays in the line up a few days, I'll raise his projection back to 51 career WAR.