Olerud363

Great news -- I've moved Vlad back to number 3 on my top 100 based on these positive reports. I'll have him back to 1 as soon as he's playing and hitting for a couple of weeks. 1. Anthony Alford - Still the best athlete in the system. Don't be fooled by the low average in Buffalo, think Mike Cameron. 5.8 WAR per year 2. Kevin Smith - Continues to hit with power in a tough league. To many Ks but I guess everybody ks these days. Think Nolan Arenado at short stop. 5.6 WAR a year. 3. Vlad Guerrero Jr - Due to recent positive health reports we've raised our outlook to 136 games a year, 5.3 WAR a year. Think Frank Thomas 1990s version with a few more dings. Off the top 100 Sadlly Bo Bichette, due to not walking in a month and slumping drastically for the last 2 weeks has been completely removed from the top 100. We don't rank players after 100, however we will include a write up on Bo in our final report under our "These guys can play too..." section, in which we give quick notes on players who didn't make the cut.

Cross posting from the other thread... it seems like a lot of the other old school guys also thought September service time didn't count. It's because we remember, Delgado and Green and Manny Ramirez, and Wells, and Snider and others coming up in September. Guys like that came up all the time. Was it possible to get 6 years and 90% of a seventh year in the old days?? Maybe that's what's changed somewhow. Point is Why did teams used to call up young top prospects in September?? And now it's apparently stupid??

Is this something that changed over the years?? I remember Olerud, Green, Delgado, etc. and other always being called up in September in the old days. They got like a handful of at bats, watched a pennant race, and ... I guess I presumed this didn't effect their service time. Then more recently Wells (1999) and Snider (2008) got called up, however those guys were a bit different. They were actually called up last couple of days in August, as both years Jays had an outside chance at playoffs and actually were planning to play both regularly and wanted them available for a potential playoff roster. Was it possible to get 6 years and 90% of a seventh year in the old days?? Maybe that's what's changed somewhow, because it seemed at one point teams regularly called up top prospects in September. There's even old videos on Manny Ramirez hitting his first 2 homeruns in the bronx as a September callup OK enough old man ranting. Point is Why did teams used to call up young top prospects in September?? And now it apparently it is stupid.

It's not specific, but more positive than not, who knows for sure but atleast he's not running in a bacta tank with Tulo.... "Guerrero, who is almost completely recovered from a strained patella tendon, has been rehabbing in Florida and has upped his workload over the past couple of weeks."

Let me try to illustrate the problem here... Olerud363 goes on a date Her - tell me about yourself Olerud363 - I love baseball, I love it. I love the blue jays. Her - Cool who's your favourite player? Olerud363 - John Olerud. He would of made the hall of fame if it wasn't for Cito Gaston. I hate Cito. Her - I remember Olerud. I was only a little girl but he were a batting helmet on the field didn't he? Olerud363 - Cito ruined his career. I hate Cito. Her - I remember Cito. They were good when Cito was manager. Olerud363 - Cito sucks. He platooned Olerud. He sat him once for Jacob Brumfield against a righty. Can you believe that. Her - (WTF???) Let's talk about something else. What about politics? Olerud363 - Trump won because of all the corruption. Hilary was corrupt. You know that right?? She was friends with the lady from Theranos. What a bad lady. The guys on my message board are just shallow corporate bros. They don't care about any of it. They're the problem not Trump. They don't understand. No one understands. Except me. No one thinks these days. That's the problem. Her - (takes three steps back... texts her friend to come by and pick her up).

Easy enough to say for you corporate bros, the same skills that help you climb the corporate ladder, help you pick up women. The same skills that help me annoy all of you, annoy women.

I wish I wasn't right on this one. Yes it will probably be the first time I'm right on anything. Not that I'm right yet... I mean we'll see. At this point hopefully he's back in a week or two. I can't really think of things I've been right on. I was wrong on Travis Snider, Dalton Pompey, and every year I've always thought Kevin Pillar had an all star season in him (based on minor stats and defense). I wish I was right on these ones.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. Update - July 9th 2018 Olerud Prediction - Unknown return date, unknown future career implications, situation worrisome. BJMB Prediction - Out four weeks, everything will be fine. Will Play July 8th 2018. Reality - All we know now is no Vlad on July 8th. Whispers are he hasn't run yet. What to look for week of July 9th - Positive Indicators - Concrete news that he is running pain free and a concrete return date (At this point the soonest he will return is about July 18th) Negative Indicators - No news or vague "positive" reports from Wilner that Vlad is doing agility exercises.

I give him 3/5 Oleruds. It reads much better on a computer than a phone. He didn't quite hit it. Not his fault really, A good 'Olerud' requires partially defective (Cito, Beeston, etc.) actors to work with. I'm not sure I've even managed to do 5/5 lately given the real life material. Making fun of the cognitive dissonance surrounding Vlad's injury (which will start to fade if he doesn't come back after the all star break) is OK stuff, but a big downer. If I'm right that just mean a historic prospect has a serious injury and could miss time in multiple years. Here is a classic 5/5 Olerud -- Cito and Murph teach Lyle Overbay to hit Overbay (32 years old, been a decent .290 hitter with good on base percentage line drive homers, and lots of doubles his entire life) Murph and Cito - Time to teach you how to hit youngster Cito - You've got to pull the ball. Murph - Yeah, pull the ball, and be aggressive, swing at your pitch. Swing at it hard because you might not get another. Overbay - (Thinks it ********, but doesn't want to be platooned with Kevin Millar) goes up to bat - First pitch - Hard foul ground ball, almost kills the first base coach Cito - Nice job Overbay Murph - He made him dance Second pitch - Pulls 435 foot foul ball down right field line. Cito - There's the power I was talking about Third pitch - Swing and misses (pitch in dirt) Cito - Good aggressive at bat, it will pay off soon. Murph - And as a bonus he didn't clog the bases.

The hilarious thing is most of what I post is pretty realistic, it's just that most people have no clue what is realistic in life or baseball. Like the Bo thing that triggered people. I said Bo was "good for age" but not great over all and that he had hit a couple of mini slumps. For some reason that triggered people. I said Vlad isn't going to be Pujuls or play 160 games a year. I literally said he'll be like Frank Thomas in his 30s, some amazing hitting, some unexplained absences, some down years where he's playing a little bit injured. It's hilarious, that an opinion, that is actually quite realistic, gets you all triggered. In another of my posts I came up with a fake career for Vlad, in which he struggles with injuries, and eventually Toronto gives up on him and trades him to Oakland. That depressing fake career was still 100 times better than the real floor, which is Jesus Montero. The real issue here isn't me. It's the fact that in order to compete in the next five years, most people are counting on Vlad and Bo to be the Jays version of Betts and Benetendi. Any time someone brings up realistic scenarios, in which Bo and Vlad don't become super stars it triggers depression and aggressiveness in most of you, because it closes your only perceived hope for a competitive Jays team. No one knows what the future will bring. I certainly don't. However I'm not pencilling in Vlad and Bo for hall of fame, or even all star careers just yet. There is to much that can still go wrong, and probably will. The real avenue for success (which the Jays are doing a good job at) is to collect as many young players as possible and let them sort it out.

I love how Wilner keeps on saying "It's likely Bautista's last at bat in Toronto".... The guys 37 years old, having a good year, and why would he retire if he continues it?? If trends continue he'll of had a 118 OPS + or greater every year since 2010... sometimes much greater. There is no reason that kind of hitter would retire. Things could change but Wilner is an idiot....

This is kind of ironic. You guys are the ones who've triggered simply by me suggesting that Vlad might be out for a while. Original return date - July 7th (misses four and half weeks) delay one - hadn't run yet - delay two - doing agility drills will be "re-evaluated" in one week So now his most optimistic return date is July 18th or so, misses his all star game and his futures games. He will have missed six weeks. And that is if everything goes perfect... It's insidious isn't it?? As the end of July approaches and he still isn't back, and he's doing agility drills with Tulo then some of the rest you will start freaking out.

I'm not sure either.... I mean I guess you can argue that Donaldson had a perfect health record between 2013 and 2016... though it wasn't quite perfect. He played through injury in September and the playoffs of 2016 but didn't miss games.

Here's the schedule for the re-evaluation News Conference which will actually be taking place tomorrow. It's actually looking pretty good, as I doubt they'd show the game live if he wasn't playing. Looks like I might have some egg on my face. Vlad Guerrero Re-evaluation News Conference - Saturday July 7th 2018 Special Guests (Politicians and Celebrities) - Ontario Premiere Doug Ford, Game show host Alex Trebek, Rush Bassist Geddy Lee Special Guests (Blue Jays Allumni) - Paul Beeston, Willie Upshaw, Paul Spoljaric Special Guests (Baseball Allumni) - Vlad Guerrero Sr, Wilton Guerrero Representing the Toronto Blue Jays - President of Baseball Operations Mark Shapiro Schedule (broadcast on Sports Net 1 and MLB Network) 6:30 - Opening remarks (Mark Shapiro) 6:40 - Comments from the trainers (Huffman/Ministral live from Toronto) 6:50 - Live from New Hampshire Gary Cathcart reveals Saturday's New Hampshire line-up,. 7:00 - 10:00 - Live broadcast New Hampshire Fischer Cats vs. Reading Fighting Phils

I've seen some Garciapara comparisons... is that good enough?? Interestingly their aa seasons are similar... Garciaparra was injured the next year in the minors... and of course his minor league injuries were a predictor of major league injuries... OK - I give up Bichette - Honus Wagner Vlad - Albert Pujols without the aging curve (162 games a year, .350 average, lots of triple crowns, retires at age 44 with every record including Cal Ripkens consecutive games played) Now -- Should we sign them to dual 25 year 1 billion dollar contracts?? Yes the mid 40s might be a bit rough but by that time 50 million a year won't be much anyway.

I'm not sure his potential is way higher than Bregmann's. Bregmann is pretty good. Age adjusted he could be at Bregmann level right now. I guess people would have to dive into some data to either prove of disprove that. When I said "move up to Bregmann level as a hitting prospect" I was really just talking about the raw stats. I just thought a couple of times he was getting hot and would end up with stats like Bregmann had in 2016... whether age adjusted his stats and potential is as good as Bregmann's is a more nuanced and complicated question.

I actually made that point in another thread. This entire argument has gone off the rails because people are misunderstanding my point. My point was only that a couple of times when I thought Bichette was going to get hot and get his OPS up to the .900 range, he went into a mini slump for a week or so and took a step back. I don't even know if I had a point. It was just an observation. It's a pretty interesting experience getting slammed for stating Bichette's OPS trends. His OPS was literally .820 a few days ago, and is about .760ish today. In mid May, after he hit his first homerun and looked like he was about to take off, he immediately went into a pretty bad slump. Just reporting the numbers here...

This argument is years old, but I just noticed it. Another example of you guys not understanding simple logic. The article you reference is comparing two players (Granderson and Gardner) with (at the time) comparable defensive abilities. You are completely missing the point. My argument is that if you took Kevin Kiermair and Nelson Cruz (hypothetically say you had to play him in left) that it would matter. That the combined WAR of Kiermair and Cruz would be much higher with Kiermair in center. Our society is literally falling apart because we don't care about each other. We don't care about logic, numbers, or decency. Me: If you hypothetically had Keirmair and Cruz in the outfield would it matter which one played left and center?? Given they have such different defensive abilities. KingKat: You dumb bro. See this article about Granderson and Gardner. Me: Yes... I agree if you have Gardner and Granderson (circa 2010 version) it doesn't matter which one goes in left or center. But what if it was Keirmaier and Nelson Cruz (2016ish versions)?? KingKatr: You dumb bro. ZZZIIIINNNGGGG!!!! Me: What the f***?? You literally didn't answer the question. KingKat: ZIIIINNNNGGG!!! BJMB: Applause.

Your f***ing nuts. I predicted Vlad Guerrero Jr. will not be Frank Thomas 20s version, I predicted he will be Frank Thomas 30s version, in his 20s. That's still a 25 WAR player. That's still a good player. Do you all think life is a f***ing fairy tale?? You've all said Vlad is fine, he's coming back July 8th. Well he probably isn't. I've moved his optimistic return date to July 14th because he hasn't run yet. Holy s***. You are all insane. Can't you see it???? Reason is gone. Common decency is gone. Facts are gone. Hurl is dissing me, but forgetting that June 30th is a date. I said things that are literally true. Poor little Bo literally went 1/18 (1/22) after last night. And Hurl is bringing out the clever Zingers. Me: Poor little Bo is going good for his age. Hurl: Let's f***ing rip Olerud, let's get out the Zingers. Zing (Smiles). Board (Applause). Your all sheep. Holy f***!!!!! June 30th is a f***ing date. Hurl was wrong. Board: Hurl was right. There is no June 30th. He had a clever Zinger. Bo did not go back to back days 0/3 and 0/5.

And the Vlad thing. I'm half joking but half not. I don't think he's coming back right after the four weeks. I can't imagine he is just going to jump back to New Hampshire July 8th. He hasn't even f***ing run from the couch to fridge to get a burrito from what I hear. Maybe I'm wrong on that. Maybe July 8th is the day. But if he hasn't run yet... That doesn't worry you?? f***in Troy Tulowitzki was working out since the end of May... but wasn't really running and... I don't know... isn't really coming back any time soon... and Donaldson was out for 2 days for the last 5 weeks and isn't coming back... basically he wasn't running, and when he did try to run he blew out his calf again and isn't coming back any time soon. So the fact that Vlad isn't running isn't bothering any of you??? Obviously it's not. He's going to run on July 10th, and July 12th, and everything will be wonderful, he will run like the wind and he will be back July 14th just in time for the futures game.

This is the most f***ed up night I've ever seen on this message board. I said Bo Bichette is having a "good for age" season, not a great season (True, if a Connor Pannas was having this season no one would care). I said he went 1/20.. pretty much true, I think it was 1/18 at the beginning of the night, 1/22 at the end. I said he hadn't walked in 20 games, untrue... I just looked at the game logs and it's 13 games since he walked. But what the f*** is wrong with you people?? Holy s***. Of all the things you could rip me for, you're ripping me for saying Bo went 1/20 and is doing good for his age but not rocking it??

I think you are forgetting June 30th dude. 1 for his last 19 before tonight. 1/23 after tonight. Has hardly walked in his last 20 games. I highly doubt the jays are instructing him to not walk.

Alternative Universe 2 No Lyle Overbay Trade a) Koskie/Glauss play first (again Koskie doesn't bump head, so plays 130 games or whatever he would ussually play without concussion) David Bush replaces Josh towers Do Jays win in 2006??

Alternative Universe - Koskie 3b, Glauss ss - does it work?? Do Jays win?? Yes - a) Koskie Glauss left side of infield > Glauss Adams/Mac Koskie doesn't bump his head as he's not in the national league that day c) Whatever weird randomness stole the 80 runs is disrupted because everything is just a bit differnt d) Koskie add 50 more runs > Adams/Mac (2006 Jays score 900+)

1998 - .280 .352 .457 883 runs 2003 - .279 .349 .455 894 runs 2006 - .284 .348 .463 809 runs 2015 - .269 .340 .457 891 runs I always thought the 2006 team was one of the better teams we had -- except 80 runs went missing. I don't remember it talked about at the time, but if you look at the individual stats they were awesome. Alex Rios breakout, good Vernon Wells, Troy Glauss prime year, Lyle Overbay best year. Reed Johnson hitting like April Kevin Pillar all year. Greg Zaun, probably all roided up but hitting well, Benjie Molonie... Frank Cat. hmm... 1. 80 runs just gone missing - stats close to 99, 03, and 15 but runs disapeared into the ether 2. Johny Mac/Russ Adams - Russ Adams awful, John Mac not that good despite perception 3. Josh Towers as you mention.