Olerud363

I would say accurate given the pictures I saw from this Spring Training. I would guess he is 30 or 40 lbs heavier than last year. Take a look at his Montreal homerun last year, vs. some of his spring trainining at bats this year. Serious obesity issue and if it leads to another injury we won't see him this year.

A-Rod was born late July, Trout early August. It make sense to compare them both through the year they turned 27. I think that would give Trout a 10 WAR advantage, at almost the exact same age (~64-54). Your using the wrong division point, I think. A-Rod was ~ 53 WAR up to Trouts age, ~60 after. A-Rod - Born late July 1975. Trout Born August 1991. 1975+27=2002 1991+27=2018

I thought there was a rumor he was on the verge of signing an extension a few days ago?? I can't imagine the Red Sox extending him if there are any red flags. It will be telling if the extension is finalized or not. In the former case he's probably healthy, in the latter probably not.

He's not going to spend another full year in the minors if he's both healthy and dedicated to getting in shape. However at this point I don't see how he's up before the super 2. If he follows a similar timeline to his last injury. a) April 5th - Special announcement from Blue Jays Central - VGJ back to baseball activity April 12th - Special announcement from Blue Jays Central - VGJ rehab games in Dunedin c) April 19th - Special announcement from Blue Jays Central - VGJ up to Buffalo d) May 5th - Special announcement from Blue Jays Central - VGJ hitting like a beast again, has been healthy for over 2 weeks. At this point do they call him up May 6th?? Why?? He came to camp out of shape. He doesn't deserve it. And at this point he is only a few weeks away from super 2. He probably comes up after the super-2 deadline is over, and justifiably so. Come into camp at 275 lbs of dough, there is a price to pay. Now if he gets another injury he may not be up this year, barring an unexpected pennant race. Again justifiably so. Why would the Jays waste service time when he's so out of shape he can't stay on the field for four weeks straight??

I really hate replying with a .gif or mem in most cases. That's most cases, not all.

It is. I kept an official stat for it for a few years. I've lost my notes but the thinking is singles and especially walks are bad. Stolen bases are good. Bunts are really good (they unclog the bases). Something like bc (bases clogged) = hits+2*bb+2b-3b-3*sb-10*bunts and clogged percentage (cp) is bc/pa. Lower is better. so for example John Olerud 1993 would have an astronomical number of clogged bases. And justifiably so with all the walks and singles but no baserunning ability. Devon White would be better, and should be close to neutral. Vince Coleman should be negative (remember less is good), a true elite who never clogged the bases.

You are unlikely to see him until June now. 3 weeks to heal, your at April 1st. Three weeks to rehab you are at April 21st, and he's just getting warmed up in Buffalo. They aren't calling him up April 21st. They'll leave him there two more weeks and your into May. Now on the off chance he seems 100% healthy and is 100% raking, Maybe we see him in May. But another month and they save super 2. So more than likely there will be one set up or another, and by the time he is ready, you'll be two or three weeks away from super 2 anyway. As an aside Brett Lawrie's issues started with Oblique injuries. The Jays really have to nip this in the bud. If their high performance team is worth anything they need to solve his conditioning and injury problems before they become a problem. 1. Knee problems 2. Oblique problems 3. ???? Staying healthy is a skill. At what point do we concede Vladimir Guerrero Jr. does not have that skill?? Obviously I trend towards the sensationalist, and went nuts with his knee injuries last year. He came through that better than I hoped he did, but this can't become a re-occurring thing.

Sean Reid Foley threw 10 straight balls in a inter squad game and Gurriel and Teoscar swung at them all. Three careers ended in the span of a few minutes.

If I had to rank them 1. BTS - 9/10 - Seem like a reasonable nice guy. Never seen anything too objectionable, at least that I recall. 2. BBBB - 7/10 - Good enough guy, a little odd obviously, little combative sometimes. 3. Boxcar - 6/10 - Mouths off, and even worse sometimes mouths off when he doesn't know what he is talking about. I still give him a 6 because he is knowledgeable enough when he does know what he's talking about.

Another fun thing to do with Trout, is take your other great players or prospects and make a list of all the things that would have to go right for them to be as good as Trout. 1. Vladimir is as good as his high end hitting projection (Frank Thomas, Albert Pujuls level, not Ken Griffey , Prince Fielder level). 2. Vladimir gets this good right away at age 20. 3. Valdimir goes on the Keto diet (or other great diet). 4. Diet has amazing effects. Vladimir is 225 lbs. 5. Vladimir sticks at third base and provides slightly positive defense. 6. Vladimir runs bases very well for "stocky" 225 lber. 7. Vladimir is amazingly healthy, 155 games a year, 1 year he gets a fluke injury but is back right on time (after 50 games) and there are no long term effects. 8. Even with all this his baserunning and defense wouldn't be quite as good as Trouts so he has to ramp the hitting up another notch.

Almost every debate about Trout and player "X" being "in the discussion" comes down to this. Prove the following sequences have equal mean value sequence 1: 9.5, 10, 9.1, 8, 10, 9.3 sequence 2: 4.3, 5, 5.2, 8.1, 5.4, 10 You could just take the average, but if you want to be more formal yhou can do an independent samples t-test on them, and easily prove the two sequences aren't equal.

I don't think the baserunning and defensive value is that much different (as 27 year olds, Trout seems to have been a much better baserunner and defensive player in his early 20s). K-rate in isolation isn't that important, but the lower k-rate probably leads to Trout's higher on base percentage. The On Base Percentage is really what differentiates them. Trout has a career on base percentage about 20 points highers, and his on base percentage the last couple of years is 40 or 50 points higher. His projected on base percentage is about 60 or 70 points higher. Meaning when the giant AI machine examines the entire work of both (including minors) it determines that Trout's "true" on base percentage, in his hitting prime, is .440 or so, and Judge's is .380 or so. Huge difference.

What is Anthony Alford Is he a power hitter: Not currently, but he has the build for it. That doesn't mean it will ever translate to game power. Is he a batting average hitter: He showed the ability to hit for average at Lansing and New hamphire. It hasn't been consistent. Is he a base stealer: Has the raw ability... Is he a good outfielder: I'll defer to others. My understanding is he is. Strong arm: Not sure Gap hitter: You mean like Paul Molitor or Devon White, or maybe Bo Bichett?? Like a guy with 40 doubles and 15-20 homers??

The silver lining is, if he is really out of shape, they can justifiably send him down, not only for the 2 weeks, but until super-2 is over. The union has no right to complain, if Vlad showed up that out of shape.

The issue is he seems to have gained 30 or 40 lbs and frankly in the pictures I've seen looks far tubbier than last year. He already had knee problems, and instead of getting fitter he went the other way. FYI - I assume his listed weight of 200 lbs last year was more like 225 or 230 and I assume his 250 this year is more like 260, thus it seems he gained 30 or 40 lbs. It's insane that a 19 year old, with well known weight problems, just went out and gained that much weight. FYI2 - This is the kind of thing that the scouting rats on the board can lend some useful insight. Is he really fatter this year or is it just the board being neurotic?? Has anyone seen him live?? How does the bat speed look?? Does he look worse or better on defense?? Insights would be appreciated.

https://www.mlb.com/cut4/vladimir-guerrero-jr-hits-double-with-one-handed-swing He does a look fatter and softer this year to me...

I'm not sure why this keep coming up again but it certainly is a lot to digest and I spot something new each time I see it. I didn't ever notice the part about his back doctor. Anybody else see the same guy?? Is he really that great of a dude?? I can't imagine there are a lot of chiropractors that look like a hell's angel.. or maybe there are, what do I know...

Nightmare Troy Tulowitzki 152 games .310 33 112 5.8 WAR 2019-2025 Troy Tulowitziki average 154 games a season completes hall of fame career as Yankee. A true legend like no other bringing Joy to all Yankee Fans Not wanting or saying that will happen... just saying if you wanted to custom design a Blue Jays nightmare that is it.

Were these after 2012 or before the season? My point wasn't that Lawrie was consistently ranked as a top 5 property. It was that there was a brief Window in the middle of the 2012 season where he the hype went crazy. I remember several articles (outside of Toronto) comparing Lawrie, Harper and Trout. If you remember Lawrie started off hot with the bat in 2011, after starting 2012 slow he got hot again leading up to the all star break, there was also a flaw in some of the defensive stats and WAR measures that didn't account for the shift properly and all of a sudden Lawrie had a ridiculous WAR after his first 100-120 games. They corrected the formulas and he lost it with the bat. So overnight he lost most of his career WAR. He went from being a great hitter and historic defensive player, to a mediocre hitter and slightly above average defensive player in like a few weeks. This was written before 2012 -- the hype got even crazier leading to the all star break. Buck Martinez is quoted as saying Lawrie has more ability than George Brett... shortly after the allstar break Lawrie dove into a camera bay in NY and that was it... http://www.espn.com/mlb/spring2012/story/_/id/7729121/toronto-blue-jays-third-baseman-brett-lawrie-bound-greatness

Yup. Machado came on the scene about 1 year after Lawrie, so mid 2012 wouldn't been in a discussion about most valuable "properties" (ie young mlb players with performance and control)

Just so people really remember this... In 2011 - Lawrie would of been top 3, except he got called up and lost his rookie status. His WAR for his first 100 games was off the charts. Part of it was because WAR didn't know how to handle shifts but I believe at the All Star Break 2012 Brett Lawrie had more WAR than Mike Trout in about the same number of games. Then that was it. Shows you how fast a things can go bad. Brett Lawrie - .350 hitter in aaa (OK I know it was Vegas but still...), STUD prospect. 100 major league games 5 WAR (like 10 bref WAR with old formula that didn't realize he wasn't ranging from third to right field, but still...) Sorry good bye that's it, no more. You have to remember Brett Lawrie was once a top 4 property in baseball in a discussion with Mike Trout Manny Machado Bryce Harper Brett Lawrie

It will be interesting to see how the 150 inning pitcher develops. Up to recently you had full time starters 32 starts 200 innings or so, and relievers 65 games 65 innings or so. So now where does it go?? Do you start seeing these roles merge into just Pitcher?? Do conventional relievers start pitching more??

Chris Sale, one of a kind, a man who learned how to do it right. It's not like you can just have a guy pitch 100 innings for a year in College, 20 innings in the minors, be a reliever for a couple years, then pitch 220 innings a year. That has has never happened and it never will. There will never be a Chris Sale come from that kind of background.

That pretty much nails it. Tercet sounds real outgoing, goes to games, from what I hear he chats with the players parents, finds out inside info, see's things as they happen, Todd on the other hand is pure numbers, no emotion. Just raw numbers from a couple of hundred prospects and pairs it down to a top 100. I wonder if they will ever team up and write a column together, they could compliment each other nicely.

Whatever happened to Keith to make him hate the Blue Jays so much?? I know he worked for JPR, and it didn't work out. However that was like 2 administrations ago. Maybe he didn't like AA because they overlapped as underlings... but why hate the Shapiro admin? Also who do you think is a better Scout Keith Law or Tercet?? Both have a keen eye and can see the flaws that the rest of us can't, but out of the two who is more astute?? If a guy misses a down and away slider thrown by an overrated Pitcher, Keith and Tercet can instantly tell that both the Pitcher (missed his spot) and hitter (can only hit meatballs) are done for.