Olerud363

Two questions on offense... 1. Can run a high on base percentage team without sabotaging it with bad lineup decisions and bad hitting advice (check, at least in 2006 and 2015, though got a bit unlucky in 2006). 2. Can develop young players (Hill, Rios, Travis (kind of)) NOTE: In small sample size did a better job with Jansen, Teoscar, Mckinney, etc. as compared to current managment. Gibby is OK at this I think. Given he was popular I didn't see an urgent need to replace him.

The data you really need to evaluate all these decisions is the win percentages for both scenarios given the batters actually involved, and using both their major and minor league stats. I assume the Blue Jays at this point have a big data machine that takes in all this information and give the answer. However maybe not.. a) the sac bunts - the number I've seen give a slight advantage to scoring more runs without the bunt... however that's run expectation. Not win % (especially for scenarios late in close games where it doesn't matter if you score 1 run or 4). I don't think the numbers people are giving are taking into account the hitters involved. However maybe they are. Leadoff Galvis/Sogard - if the Jays had three or four established sluggers like in the Edwin, Donaldson, Bautista days, you might as well hit Donaldson or Bautista lead off sure. However when you have the great Billy McKinney and Teoscar Hernandez as other options, is it that bad hitting Sogard and/or Galvis up in the lineup?? c) Everyone kind of sucks - All our guys that should just sort of suck with .320 on base percentage have .280 on base percentages. Our guys that should be good for their positions, like Jansen, are hitting bad, this is the real issue. Hopefully that turns around. Hitting philosaphy is not good right now, but maybe just bad luck.

Yes. I'm aware of that. And I'm not pro-sac-bunt. Just pointing out that Tampa does this too. So it's not like Charlie is going against the Tampa way.

You guys know that Tampa Bay had 28 sacrifice hits last year?? Near the top of the AL?? What ??? I haven't seen that mentioned in this thread. It's been all like "This f***ing mentally injured idiot Charlie is the complete opposite of the Tampa Bay philosaphy. He is bunting so much and Tampa Bay are certified geniuses who never bunt." ... I didn't even bother checking the stats... however I accidently did and last year Tampa Bay was third in sacrifice hits with 28. Charlie is just doing what Tampa Bay did last year.

I don't really care about the bunts either way. I don't care about pinch running for Vlad either way. I care about the team on base percentage though and developing young players. Obviously power is important to. And run prevention. And since the Jays are over performing, and have a + run differential things aren't all bad. However a .298 team on base percentage is concerning. Jansen, Mckinney, Tellez, Drury, and Hernandez as a group should be mediocre hitters, instead they have been terrible. That may be changing and their stats may look a lot better in a month, but this group should have a .320 on base percentage, not .280. Managers most important job on offense, is to install a good hitting philosophy, hire a good hitting coach, and develop the young players. Can't see evidence of a good job being done there. That will hopefully change though.

Hanson has hit 72 triples in the minors, 8 in the majors (in about a season's worth of at bats) and stolen 220 bases in the minors and 22 in the majors (albeit with a mediocre caught stealing percentage) About 9% of Hansen's hits are triples compared to about 2% of Vald's. This indicates Hansen has very good 1st to home speed and would have a significantly higher chance of scoring. Not sure why his sprint speed is so slow.

John Olerud never hit ahead of Joe Carter, ever. Olerud even when hitting .400 hit fifth. After they got Ricky Henderson, Molitor and/or Alomar had to be pushed to 6th. Henderson, White, Alomar, Carter, Olerud, Molitor. So you had the two batting title finalists hitting 5th and 6th behind .310ish on base guys. In 1992 White hit 1, Carter hit 3, each was healthy, go almost 700 plate appearances, and each had a .300ish on base percentage. Cito messed around with any young hitter, particularly young left handed hitters. He mostly evaluated hitters on RBIs. The crazy thing was since he sat young guys so much, they'd only get 65 rbis (Green, Olerud), and then by defnition weren't an RBI guy, so had to get hitting tips to be more like Joe Carter, and the hitting tips were crap. Olerud talks about this (very politely) in the introduction to TIm Robinson's hitting book (old Mets coach). Olerud would of been a hall of famer without Cito. He got 58 fwar Not platooning - a few more fwar - 62 say Not getting bad hitting tips - a few mrore fwar - 65 say And his career would look more impressive if he got 500 at bats a year from 90 to 96. I'm rambling, I know. But Cito was bad, not only the worse manager but the worse human being in history (at least according to Bob Cat).

No heroics. That fat little man can go station to station, one base at a time, clog them if he has to. 200 hits, 100 walks, - 40 homeruns = 260 clogged bases. 260 clogged bases a year will be outstanding.

Did you ever read Matt Stairs biography?? I think it is called "Matt Stairs a man without loft, the 1 in a million story". In your expert opinion how did Matt Stairs do it?? Do you consider Prince Fielder (5'11" 275) to be classified as "short and stubby" like Stairs and Kirk?? Or is the extra 2 inches enough to give Fielder the loft he needed to hit 50 homeruns?? Would Fielder be more in a group with Ryan Howard and Aaron Judge then with Stairs and Kirk??

How does Mookie Betts do it at 5'9" without loft ?? Do you think Tellez will easily beat Mookie's career high homerun total of 32 given how much loft Tellez has?? Who are the 10 most similar minor league players to Kirk?? What happened to them??

Does the data agree with you?? I've yet to see a lot of convincing studies that you can project guys based on body type or nitpicking scouting type attibutes. Sure there are not a lot of great hitters that are 5'9" 250, but that's already baked in. The guys who are 5'9" 250 are working at KFC, or hitting .220 in the midwest league, or they are 5'9" 450 and stuck in bed because being 5"9' 250. they were disadvantaged and didn't make it anywhere and ate themselves into a bigger hole. The logic is trikier here. You can't just say "this is my wonderful observations". That's just talk. What you have to show is that Guys that are 5'9" 250 with who hit apr. .350 .450 .550 in the low minors are extrememly disadvantaged vs guys who have more athletic builds and hit .320 .400 .550 with worse strikeout to k ratios. Maybe you can do two groups. First group 5'11 or short, 230 or heavier, OPS 900+ k/bb amazing. Second group 6'2" and taller, athletic. OPS good but lower than group 1, k/bb good but lower than group 1. You are claiming that despite the hitting advantages of group 1, group 2 hits better in the long run. Show your work.

This entire board makes no sense sometimes. Take a prospect like Smith. 1 year ago if we had a huge talk about Smith's ceiling no one would mention Justin Upton. If someone said. I do believe this. Dwight Smith is the next Justin Upton. He will hit .280 .350 .480 or so like Justin Upton does. I do believe this will happen. Everybody, including myself, would go nuts on the person. In fact, as we all know, this scenario pretty much happened. So lets try to examine reality with some questions. Question 1. Is Billy McKinney the next Justin Upton?? Question 2. Is Dwight Smith the next Justin Uption?? Question 3. Over the next 100 games will Billy MicKinney hit better, worse or about the same than he has over the last 20?? Question 4. Over the next 100 games will Dwight Smith hit better, worse or about the same than he has over the last 20?? Edit: I'm not accusing anyone of saying Dwight Smith is the next Justin Upton, just pointing that he is hitting like Justin Upton right now, and we have to ask ourselves whether that will continue or not. I am accusing someone of saying Billy McKinney is the next Justin Upton, because someone did say that once.

?? Even Brett Lawrie managed to come back in 6 weeks from a broken hand. I remember Joe Carter got one in the middle of Spring Training one year, and was back by opening day to make lots and lots of outs. Shawn Green broke his hand and managed to avoid the disabled list in 1999. Of course I am sure there are all kinds of different types and severity of broken hands... I guess we need to wait and see exactly how broken, whether surgery is needed and what the recovery time will be.

What if he re-injures oblique or his knees bark or gets an obesity related injury that would of happened anyway?? It's better it happens in Buffalo Tuesday than Toronto (in which case they waste 2 months of service time with IL time). Of course if it's a fluke that wouldn't of happened anyway then that's bad.

One of the points I've tried to make with Vlad is that to be spectacularly great, instead of just regularly great he just needs to be an average defensive player. At least if you believe the fangraphs model. Olerud wasn't fat, but was extremely slow and always looked to me to be an awkward runner. However he made up with it with great hands, excellent instincts, and a great first move. Pablo Sandoval was extremely obese but ended as an average defensive player. I didn't see him play much, but assume same story. Good hands, good first move, good arm. I hope Vladdy has the tools to be a slightly below average defensive player... like 0 to -5 on the fan graphs model, rather than a complete tool (-20 a year on the fangraphs model). It translates to a couple of WAR a year.

Mike Wilner is a tragedy of our times. He stood for what is right to a point, but when faced with losing his job he towed the company line. He stood up to Gaston but then backed down when the powers that be threatened him. I am Wilner and so are you. Stop dissing him. Unless you have quit your job, stood up to power, lived the life of a radical and never bent to the establishment for a couple of bucks... in that case diss Wilner. Otherwise you are Wilner. We all are.

John Olerud has more FWAR then Vlad Guerrero SR, and apparently more defensive value as well. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=778&position=OF https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1093&position=1B Sr was two years older then jr at every level. Ask yourself what is Vlad Jrs path to beating Olerud and by how much can he beat Olerud?? Can VJG either by being a good defensive 1st basemen, or by just sticking at 3rd for a while beat Olerud defensively?? Can VJG win batting titles?? Can he get on base like Olerud did?? Does he have more power than Olerud?? Pretty obvious that he does, how much more 10 more homers a year?? 20?? Can he stay healthy?? Can he play well into his 30s?? I guess this is where the questions occur. He may beat Olerud through age 28 (which Olerud was platooned/or strike shortened every year except the batting title year) but may have a tough time beating him age 28 through 33 (assuming like we all do he is 325 pounds by then).

Alides Escobar had a .290 career on base percentage and was chosen leadoff over Ben Zobrist. Eric Sogard has a .309 on base percentage and was chosen leadoff over.. Brandon Drury?? Rowdy Tellez Smoak?? Over 162 games hypothetically how much does the 'optimal' 2019 Blue Jays lineup outscore what Montoyo is putting out there?? How much does the optimal Royals 2015 lineup outscore what Yost put out there?? Just curious if people have any idea what the numbers really are when they make these statements.

Isn't Sogard's .309 career on base percentage like 3rd our of everybody who played yesterday. I believe only Tellez and Smoak had a higher career on base percentage. Of course I realize that power is a factor too. Let's say they wrote a computer algorithm to make the line up based on career minor league stats and major league stats. Sogard's career minor league on base percentage is .380 (1st out of everyone who played last night expect maybe Smoak) Sogard's career major league on base percentage is .309 (3rd out of everyone who played last night I think) Would the computer choose Sogard?? Alternatively maybe the front office just calls him and tells them they want a good look at one player or another and that's why Burito and Sogard have batted lead off occasionally.

That and the Red Sox signed him to a long term contract 15 days ago or so. I have a hard time believing there is anything serious wrong with him AND the Red Sox signed him to a long term contract 15 days ago.

The ceremony isn't for the fine people on this board who will watch anyway... it is to get as many commoners as possible to tune in. Sadly that will make the production annoying for the real fans and people of distinguished tastes.

Rogers Communications, Subway Sandwiches, Tim Horton's Donuts, and The Province of Ontario, present a very special event The Major League Debut of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio Pregame ceremonies - 7:05 Game start - 7:20 Special Guests Paul Beeston Vladimir Guerrero Sr. Craig Biggio Dante Bichette Doug Ford Michael J. Fox Special Musical Guest - The Strumbellas National Anthem - Celine Dion Available on Roger Sportsnet 3, Fan 590 Radio Master of Ceremonies - Mike Wilner

Over the years I think we've had two truly smart guys post, Nox and Laika. Occasionally they are a little annoying, overconfident, and condescending, but true smart guys always are, as those techniques are useful to get free stuff (ie climb the corporate ladder), and if you're truly smart, you never say no to free stuff. Still always fun to see the smart guys turn it on and call out ********.

Still no doubles or triples or homers. Just singles. Do you think he will come directly to Toronto this weekend?? What day is it that we get an extra year?? I thought it was this weekend but wasn't sure of the exact day.

Why do you think the whole team is hitting like him?? After today it is a bit better more like Kenny Williams 1991, instead of 1990.