saskjayfan

I'm not misunderstanding anything. He was an 82 OPS+ bat last year. So he should have been an 88 OPS+ bat. He has terrible plate disciple, little power and can't lay off the slider. Decent contact skills which leads to weak contact on sliders away. Never trust success a player has early in his young career if it's not replicated. The league has adjusted. The Jays just think they can overload him with information and his plate discipline will improve and somehow he will suddenly be able to pick up spin. I'll gladly post that I'm an idiot if he has a good offensive year. I feel very convicted in my opinion that he's going to be a 90 OPS+ bat over the next 5 years with good defense. There's still value in the defense, but the idea that we have a 5 to 6 win player seems ridiculous to me. 2.5 to 3...sure. That's what he is.

xwoba 20 .303 small sample size. 21 .268 slightly larger sample size still small. 22 .326 146 games. He's broken out. 23. .297 He'll bounce back. 24. .296 Ahh...2 years in a row. 25. .290....ahh..he might not be very good. Dalton Varsho xwoba 20 .288 21 .323 A star is born. Above average bat with crazy defensive skills. 22. .298. No worries he'll bounce back. 23 .302 ahh still not great. 24. .261...f***, he's not a great hitter but he's still a great defender. Giminez is just 1 year behind Varsho.

Yeah, and next year he will project as a below avg hitter. His career xwoba if .302 and league average is .315. His numbers are trending down and he had a .353 Babip in his one good year. The bat is trending down. When a young player is trending down, this is more likely the league has more data on you've been exposed. You can all line up and tell me I'm a moron at the end of the season when he posts a 120 OPS+. It's going to be crickets in here when he posts an 87 OPS+

He's not a decent hitter. He's a below average hitter. He'll project as a below average hitter next year.

Outs above average had him at plus 1 last year. He was -3 the year before. Bo is a long ways from the best short stop in the league, but he's far from a liability at the position. He is a close to average defensive short stop. He can handle the position just fine if he's got an OPS north of .800.

The thing the Jays have going for them, is they never draft anyone good anyways so losing the comp pick isn't really that big of a deal.

The deadline is this Thursday. They aren't taking Vlad to arbitration this year. They are trying to get the extension done by Thursday. They could just do a 1 year deal and try and negotiate a deal after that, but it would make more sense to do a long term extension before Thursday if they are going to do one.

Ed's been blackballed from his own family. He doesn't seem like the type that wouldn't hire Luhnow. It's just that I don't think he actually follows baseball and he's probably never heard of him..lol

He was under the same suspension as AJ Hinch. Hinch has a job. There are text messages and evidence that everyone in the the organization was hiding the sign stealing scandal from Jeff. He was the one guy that didn't know the full extent of what was going on. He absolutely is eligible to return to the MLB. It's just that no one has hired him.

Hey Dannon. Could you just sign someone already.

Jeff Luhnow.

At the beginning of the offseason, I didn't really want Santander because for years and dollars I thought there was better value elsewhere. That elsewhere has already signed, so just sign him. Give him the extra year. Our offense is putrid. We need him.

Yeah, we were over to start the year last year and ended up under. I was kind of hoping to be over at the beginning of the season and at the end of the year this year....lol

The first actual luxury tax threshold is 241. It doesn't matter what you read. The Jays have the same luxury tax threshold as the rest of the league. Spotrac numbers are actually pretty reliable and they break things down really well. Player benefits, minor league salaries and pre arb bonus pool is over 22 mil. They include pre-arb, arb projections and payroll. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/overview/_/year/2025

The first CBT threshold is 241. It includes player benefits and pension obligations which is a lot. With that and arb projections the bluejays have 21 mil in cap space according to Spotrac. This is actually a bit more than I thought it was.

Getting under last year was key, but they need to get into the 2nd tax bracket to have a shot. I'm not sure what the budget is. If they are willing to do this there's no reason they haven't extended Vlad. Vlad should have been the first move of the offseason. Extending him should be the first move of 2025.

Yeah, Ok fine. We scored 671 runs last year. We are worse offensively than we were last year and our payroll is about 10 to 12 mil shy of where we were last year. If we don't add some offense we're cooked. Turnbull is 6 to 7 mil. That gives us 5 mil to improve the offense. We need to outspend last year by 40 mil to even have a chance.

Can we talk about getting some freaking offense. At this point I'd be happy with JD Martinez or even Grichuk. If we need another starter just sign Turnbull on the cheap for a 1 year deal.

The FWAR leaderboard! The top 10 FWAR teams always make the playoffs. Can't wait for the Jays to sign Kim. I don't understand why we didn't make the playoffs. We projected to win 85 games. How did we only win 68 games? We scored 612 runs and our bullpen was garbage.

Getting a starter shouldn't be our next move. Our bullpen is suspect and our offense is terrible. Even if a starter performs well he hands the ball off to a crap bullpen in tight games because our offense doesn't score runs. I'm Ross. I have to win to keep my job. I may as well go down in flames. I'm trading for Yelich. 23.8 mil luxury tax hit. That would take us to the luxury tax. He just had back surgery. He has 4 years left. He's entering his decline years. That could be one of the worst trades in our history, or you have a guy who's finally pain free and a guy with elite talent. Even if that's the case the injury risk moving forward is still big. Loperfido, Barger, or Schneider a mid level prospect and taking on all or most of the contract might get it done. The brewers are cheap and might want to get out from under that contract. I'm in on JD Martinez for 1 year 8 mil. That's 8 mil into the luxury tax. If there's any money left I sign the best starter I can and or a bullpen piece. I don't think the budget extends past the 2nd luxury tax tier. It might not extend into the luxury tax at all, which would complicate things. We need to fix the offense. Yelich and Martinez might not fix it at all, but the job is on the line and the upside of those 2 might be enough to win. If it doesn't work out Atkins is losing his job anyways.

Coming into the offseason we needed 2 to 3 bats. We traded a bat away so we need 3 to 4 bats..lol. Like our next move should be for some offense. Our funds are running low. I actually would be happy to sign JD Martinez. He didn't have a normal training camp and his underlying numbers still look pretty good. It's hail mary time. Time to start chucking it deep.

So just 80 or so mil in tax owed. 50 mil on top of that for the posting fee for Sasaki. To work the CBA luxury tax rules they pay outsized bonuses. Snell got 52 mil. Teo got 23. The dodgers have already spent more money before the season starts in signing bonuses than some teams will spend on payroll all year..lol

Not completely out of nowhere. The scored the most runs in the league. The problem is, no one believes in our team. We have no young stars coming up, although I think people might be overlooking Francis who could be quite good. Still, our farm isn't very good. We're losing our 2 stars at the end of this year. Our future is murky. Free agents want money, but they also want a chance to win. I'm not sure where the Jays go from here. I could actually see Santander signing with the Orioles. I doubt we overpay for Alonzo, but we may as well write a best wishes with the Mets card for Vlad if we do. Best guesses. We sign Kim and JD Davis.

I mean Shapiro won't fire him, but Shapiro is in the last year of his contract. If the Jays go down in flames for the second year in a row with a luxury tax payroll and this time the attendance will drop dramatically as well. If that happens, Shapiro is gone and that means so is Atkins.

Having a lame duck GM that has to make the playoffs to keep his job has sort of complicated things.