Laika
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Everything posted by Laika
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)
Laika replied to Krylian's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
You're not wrong. If we are being honest it's mostly connorp and jim. A few other people who can't help themselves are culpable, myself included, and terminator/jaysblue/deadpool/L54/spanky, various others... then there are the trolls that come and go... but most of the worthless back and forth has connorp or jim on one or both sides of it. -
The show rejected him Something about his dome messing up the lighting on set?
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you will never find love
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You don't care about average EV when thinking about tools. Varsho's maxEV is 83rd percentile that means minor improvements in bat path should = large improvements in game power the version of Varsho we have seen is flawed and playing a sub-optimal position most nights. no argument there. he needs to figure something else out at the plate, and he will be a better player when he is a full time CF.
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I dunno. Could be a lot of "minor league" extra base hits in there.
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pretty low
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I don't see the problem The trade was horrendous and now it's amazing. That can happen in baseball. It's a weird game!
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If they really want to attribute Wins in an old school way it really shouldn't be binary. Like if the team won and you pitched you get a fraction of a win based on the innings you pitched. If the team lost and you gave up runs you get a fraction of a loss based on how many of the runs you surrendered.
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That can't be true. He looked putrid for all of April. He ended April in an 0-14 (including May 1) and through May 1 hit .161/.235/.274 with a 44.1% K rate May 2 to present he has hit .342/.484/.534
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lack of tools you can only be so good when you never barrel the ball, never walk, and have middling raw power
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I don't get it
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Varsho is one tweak away. He is making more contact than ever and displaying his plus power and speed, consistently. Moreno is like... absolutely maxing out his physical talents and he still can't really hit enough. .282 with a .336 BABIP and he is at this level. Just no juice in that body, whatsoever.
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lil' Gabby Moreno now has a putrid .688 OPS and only 0.3 fWAR a replacement level season is in the realm of possibilities he is a surprisingly bad baserunner!? good trade remains good, I never doubted it
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Pitcher wins r dum!
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Stroman clowns on Soto https://bdata-producedclips.mlb.com/bfa3516d-050c-496e-b200-9f758399ad0d.mp4
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okay
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I placed three P on debut waivers AJ Smith-Shawver Bryan Woo Andrew Abbott (set to debut tomorrow)
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Can't recall a player ever looking as bad as Belt did for the first six weeks or so, and that player being able to turn it around
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)
Laika replied to Krylian's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
statcast doesn't account for VERTICAL difficulty -
they are all on there, it's just hard to see the kids with only a few years who are still near the origin. vlad, tatis, etc. https://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx <-- this is the tool
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I think it's at the point where he IS having that kind of year, despite the batting average. It's not a mirage to pair those K and BB rates with that ISO. He's a freak. They could probably promote him at this point.
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In sum, I think this is the takeaway: we all hoped Vlad could be like the guys in my second picture, the "phenoms" (so, a 50 career WAR expectation) but it is looking like he will be more like the guys in my first picture, the "good 1B" (so, a 30 career WAR expectation) but if he can get back on track with the stick and mature a bit, he still has a realistic chance to perform like the upper bound of the fat 1B category. that means like Goldy, Votto, Freeman... a 50 WAR career.
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alright here is a new sample for Vlad comps this is players since 1990 with at least one season age 22 or younger and 5+ WAR (picked 5 WAR to capture some guys on the "other" side of Vlad's 6 WAR year). this should capture almost everybody in the last three+ decades who was demonstrably very good at a very young age i.e. most of the hot shot prospects who did not flop. I guess I could have expanded the age cutoff to 23 as well to scoop more guys, but I didn't think of it. i have excluded A-Rod and Trout on purpose just to make the graph more readable. and because they are kind of incomparable legends, anyway... We have revealed a "fun" comp for Vlad in Pablo Sandoval! Other than Pablo the current "trajectory" comps might be Tulo and Devers...
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Could look up players with 6+ WAR seasons at 22 or younger and just use that sample... That would exclude all of these fat 1B types and add in many of those hot shots. But then you are being unfair to Vlad because his talent profile is not the same given his body and s***..
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pick your Vlad career path: Note that his age 24 season on this graph is unfairly low. You can just extrapolate his current 0.7 WAR to 2.1 or whatever, if you want. That moves his final dot a bit.
