The thing with baseball is if you wait for the answer to be obvious, you'll be too slow. You'll never get the good players. You'll never sell the declining players in time.
You have to consistently search for an edge and act as quickly as possible.
It's "okay" sometimes to use visual or short term information as a supplement to statlines and projections. You can make decisions more quickly that way. There is risk to it, if you turn out to be stupid. But some people have a good brain at putting all of the information together and making quick decisions while being right more often than not.
Just not seeing anything with Varsho that makes me thing he could improve a bit on his fundamental skills, from 2022. That's a bit disappointing; there was a glimmer of hope when the trade happened that he might in fact be able to make incremental improvements and be a monster.
And the previous stuff I said on Moreno, I would reiterate.
Is 6 weeks long enough to make a conclusion on the trade? No, of course not.
Is 6 weeks enough time to start sliding your opinion on the probabilities a little bit? Absolutely.