Astros (Lambert) vs Blue Jays (Bieber): 6/23/26, 4:07pm

[Olerud363.354]

1 hour ago, Omar said:

When it comes to the worst contract signings ever a few names come to mind.  I think of Ryan Howard back in the day with the Phils or more recently Anthony Rendon with the Angels; but those were a pittance compared to Vladdy's.  

Could this go down as the worst contract signing in the history of baseball?  Sure hope not but I'm starting to worry.

Ryan Howard's contract was 5 years 125 million.  Really not something they needed to do because it began when he was 32 and went through age 36. 

Anthony Rendons was 7 247.  

Vlad is twice as much as Rendon, four times as much as Howard.  Signed through age 40.

We are at month 3 and his power is gone.   That is kind of what happened to Miguel Cabrera. 

In his prime Miguel averaged 95 mph with regular 110 mph contact.  In his late 30s it was down under 90 and the ball could no longer fly out of the park or past the third basemen.

This has happened to Vlad at age 27.  

[jmomcc]

8 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Ryan Howard's contract was 5 years 125 million.  Really not something they needed to do because it began when he was 32 and went through age 36. 

Anthony Rendons was 7 247.  

Vlad is twice as much as Rendon, four times as much as Howard.  Signed through age 40.

We are at month 3 and his power is gone.   That is kind of what happened to Miguel Cabrera. 

In his prime Miguel averaged 95 mph with regular 110 mph contact.  In his late 30s it was down under 90 and the ball could no longer fly out of the park or past the third basemen.

This has happened to Vlad at age 27.  

His bat speed is almost the same though. I’m guessing the above examples saw degradation there. 

[Stangstag]

38 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

wRC+ of 143 in June bro, and has cut his chase % in half down to 18.4% pay attention, mate.

The at bat in the 10th showed me all i needed to see. Dude is washed. Season stats still suck. 

[Olerud363.354]

4 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

His bat speed is almost the same though. I’m guessing the above examples saw degradation there. 

I have noticed that.   In any game he still seems to have some of the fastest swings.  

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=statcast-r-bat_tracking-mlb

Just glanced at these stats and there is nothing there I can see to indicate his swing is off compared to 23-25.  Weird.

But his exit Vs are down a few mph.  Especially the last few weeks. 

[Omar]

31 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Ryan Howard's contract was 5 years 125 million.  Really not something they needed to do because it began when he was 32 and went through age 36. 

Anthony Rendons was 7 247.  

Vlad is twice as much as Rendon, four times as much as Howard.  Signed through age 40.

We are at month 3 and his power is gone.   That is kind of what happened to Miguel Cabrera. 

In his prime Miguel averaged 95 mph with regular 110 mph contact.  In his late 30s it was down under 90 and the ball could no longer fly out of the park or past the third basemen.

This has happened to Vlad at age 27.  

Yeah those were just what I thought of but as I said, they were a pittance compared to Vlads contract. 

Your points just hit home even more, this could go down as the worst signing in mlb history. 

[Spanky__99]

28 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

The at bat in the 10th showed me all i needed to see. Dude is washed. Season stats still suck. 

K.....

 

[james jones]

I think today is not a good day to be a Toronto sport fan.

The Jays lost a game in a embarrassing fashion and the Raptors select Allen Graves with their 19th pick...

[glory]

12 hours ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Ryan Howard's contract was 5 years 125 million.  Really not something they needed to do because it began when he was 32 and went through age 36. 

Anthony Rendons was 7 247.  

Vlad is twice as much as Rendon, four times as much as Howard.  Signed through age 40.

We are at month 3 and his power is gone.   That is kind of what happened to Miguel Cabrera. 

In his prime Miguel averaged 95 mph with regular 110 mph contact.  In his late 30s it was down under 90 and the ball could no longer fly out of the park or past the third basemen.

This has happened to Vlad at age 27.  

Vlad’s contract will only be palatable if the first half of it is elite level offense. The minute it was signed you figured the last half (seven f’n years!) will just be sub replacement level slop until he gets to 3000 hits and the fans can celebrate him. If the first half of the contract is not a bunch of 5-6 WAR seasons with a lot of team success then yeah, worst contract in MLB history (just due to the length of it more than anything else) is probably a safe bet. 

[Olerud363.354]

16 minutes ago, glory said:

If the first half of the contract is not a bunch of 5-6 WAR seasons with a lot of team success then yeah, worst contract in MLB history (just due to the length of it more than anything else) is probably a safe bet. 

Jayson Heyward was a huge guy, super athletic, awesome defense stats, great minor league stats.  Had a good power season at 22 (not at Vlad's level) then at 26 hit .230 .306 .325 and then at 31 .214 .280 .347.  Some other awful seasons in his prime. 

Super-athletic, hard worker I think, great in all the other areas of the game, good hitter as a young guy... and his swing broke and could never be fixed.

Vlad's best and so far worst is better then Heyward... but just the trend, the idea of a broken swing that can't get fixed is concerning.

[Laika]

This was a horrendous loss. It reminded me of the World Series. 

Atkins needs to be aggressive or creative here. Find a taker for Jesus Sanchez (ick) and go get Lane Thomas or something like that.  

[Terminator]

Sanchez is such an annoying player.

His sprint speed fell off a cliff and it's turned him from an average corner OFer into a horrendous one in just one season at age 28. He doesn't run anymore, he just lumbers.

You almost need to consider getting old man Springer out in LF and DHing Sanchez.

[max silver]

13 hours ago, Stangstag said:

The at bat in the 10th showed me all i needed to see. Dude is washed. Season stats still suck. 

[max silver]

41 minutes ago, Laika said:

This was a horrendous loss. It reminded me of the World Series. 

Atkins needs to be aggressive or creative here. Find a taker for Jesus Sanchez (ick) and go get Lane Thomas or something like that.  

Yeah I had serious shades of world series game 7, with the wasted opportunities to tack on runs, blown save, relief bomb in extra innings, glorious opportunity to walk off the game etc.

[Laika]

12 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Sanchez is such an annoying player.

His sprint speed fell off a cliff and it's turned him from an average corner OFer into a horrendous one in just one season at age 28. He doesn't run anymore, he just lumbers.

You almost need to consider getting old man Springer out in LF and DHing Sanchez.

I f***ing hate Jesus Sanchez and players like him 

Lazy f***, not running out groundballs and putting in any effort on defense, stupid plate appearances all the time, a Jazz Chisolm level sense of the strike zone, and smiling through his failures all day long. Get him out of here. 

Pinango has more professional at bats and a more professional demeanor, even if his defense is as bad and his sprint speed barely clears and the team loses out on raw power. 

[max silver]

12 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Sanchez is such an annoying player.

His sprint speed fell off a cliff and it's turned him from an average corner OFer into a horrendous one in just one season at age 28. He doesn't run anymore, he just lumbers.

You almost need to consider getting old man Springer out in LF and DHing Sanchez.

It's hard to fathom how bad he is defensively in right field. He's sitting at -9% success rate added by Statcast right now. He seems to be more comfortable in left field but the team will have some tough decisions to make when the likes of Barger and potentially Santander are ready to return. There will be too many lumbering bat only players on the roster and not enough spots to go around.

[Terminator]

I'm going to get tarred and feathered for this, but yesterday's loss didn't bother me that much.

It felt like one of those fluky losses that happens over 162 games, and the Astros probably deserved to win anyway after piling up the hits and homers.

The main concern was Bieber who looked rough, but his Stuff+ was still in line with his 2022-24 seasons despite the velo dip, so hopefully it's just rust and he's a decent #3 moving forward.

The offense also feels like it's starting to come around. We are inching are way toward league average wRC+ and the problems now seem to be almost solely due to a 82 wRC+ with RISP which is dead last. That's not going to last all season.

[max silver]

12 minutes ago, Terminator said:

I'm going to get tarred and feathered for this, but yesterday's loss didn't bother me that much.

It felt like one of those fluky losses that happens over 162 games, and the Astros probably deserved to win anyway after piling up the hits and homers.

The main concern was Bieber who looked rough, but his Stuff+ was still in line with his 2022-24 seasons despite the velo dip, so hopefully it's just rust and he's a decent #3 moving forward.

The offense also feels like it's starting to come around. We are inching are way toward league average wRC+ and the problems now seem to be almost solely due to a 82 wRC+ with RISP which is dead last. That's not going to last all season.

Where are you able to find stuff+ ratings this early in the day after a start? Fangraphs Stuff+ doesn't typically update until later in the day.

[Laika]

13 minutes ago, max silver said:

It's hard to fathom how bad he is defensively in right field. He's sitting at -9% success rate added by Statcast right now. He seems to be more comfortable in left field but the team will have some tough decisions to make when the likes of Barger and potentially Santander are ready to return. There will be too many lumbering bat only players on the roster and not enough spots to go around.

I think they need to just cut Sanchez or trade him for a bag of balls.

Barger is starting his rehab tomorrow, apparently. I see no way to get him on the roster and justify keeping Sanchez. 

Lukes has 0.7 WAR in 45 games and has earned a starting role in LF. Sanchez has been near replacement level. Barger is a strict upgrade on Sanchez in every facet, other than maybe contact rate but it's close.

Yeah they could bench Sanch and option Schneider but c'mon man.  

 

[Terminator]

6 minutes ago, max silver said:

Where are you able to find stuff+ ratings this early in the day after a start? Fangraphs Stuff+ doesn't typically update until later in the day.

You're right I misread Fangraphs but I was also basing my post off of TJ Stuff+ which has him as a tick better than last year.

Not sure that really passes the eyeball test though so it will be interesting to see what Fangraphs' Stuff+ says.

[G-Snarls]

Bieber looked like mid spring training trying to find his release point etc

Hopefully it's just just some rust but not sure. 

I am sure that it sucks because we need some length from the starters so bad and we aren't getting it at all. Even Gausman isn't giving it to them anymore. 

[Laika]

Toronto ranks 26th/30 teams in IP from their SP.

This number gets skewed when you use an opener, but still. 

[Orgfiller]

29 minutes ago, Laika said:

I think they need to just cut Sanchez or trade him for a bag of balls.

Barger is starting his rehab tomorrow, apparently. I see no way to get him on the roster and justify keeping Sanchez. 

Lukes has 0.7 WAR in 45 games and has earned a starting role in LF. Sanchez has been near replacement level. Barger is a strict upgrade on Sanchez in every facet, other than maybe contact rate but it's close.

Yeah they could bench Sanch and option Schneider but c'mon man.  

 

Sanchez could still platoon but the existence of Springer makes it kind of tough. A Sanchez/Springer DH platoon could actually do well, but it would be kind of poor use of resources to have a DH platoon where neither can play a position anymore. He's quite good against RHP and would present a good pinch hit option, but he offsets all his offensive contribution on the field and on the basepaths.

I agree that best course of action is send him packing for a random AAA reliever/4A SP, and then you have Sanchez at home in the form of Pinango if someone else goes down to injury.

[Terminator]

Incredibly frustrating to have a player that is actually good at the hardest thing to do in sports (hit a baseball) but he sucks anyway because he can't contribute in any other aspect of the game

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Terminator said:

You're right I misread Fangraphs but I was also basing my post off of TJ Stuff+ which has him as a tick better than last year.

Not sure that really passes the eyeball test though so it will be interesting to see what Fangraphs' Stuff+ says.

I'm surprised the TJStats Stuff+ ratings were so high. Bieber's velocity, spin rates and extension were all down on the 4 seamer compared to last season, but iVB was improved which must be the primary contributing factor to the improved stuff rating. 

[G-Snarls]

4 hours ago, Terminator said:

Incredibly frustrating to have a player that is actually good at the hardest thing to do in sports (hit a baseball) but he sucks anyway because he can't contribute in any other aspect of the game

I know they're desperate for offense 

However, the team plan was to build on pitching, defense and a long lineup (albeit with modest power; you can't have it all)

He just doesn't fit at all. 

[Terminator]

3 hours ago, max silver said:

I'm surprised the TJStats Stuff+ ratings were so high. Bieber's velocity, spin rates and extension were all down on the 4 seamer compared to last season, but iVB was improved which must be the primary contributing factor to the improved stuff rating. 

Ok Fangraphs released the Stuff+ for Bieber and it was 95 for yesterday's game. That would be the highest Stuff+ grade for Bieber since 2021 so that's good.

His location+ was 93 though (101 for his career). You'd think that would improve as he shakes the cobwebs off. 

So that maybe wasn't as bad of a first start as your eyeballs would tell you it was. 

[max silver]

6 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Ok Fangraphs released the Stuff+ for Bieber and it was 95 for yesterday's game. That would be the highest Stuff+ grade since 2021 so that's good.

His location+ was 93 though (101 for his career). You'd think that would improve as he shakes the cobwebs off. 

So that maybe wasn't as bad of a first start as your eyeballs would tell you it was. 

Yeah the overall stuff ratings look pretty positive. The location grades on the breaking pitches in particular were abysmal and he'll need to iron that out if he's going to be more than a Scherzer clone. 

[Stangstag]

5 hours ago, Terminator said:

I'm going to get tarred and feathered for this, but yesterday's loss didn't bother me that much.

It felt like one of those fluky losses that happens over 162 games, and the Astros probably deserved to win anyway after piling up the hits and homers.

The main concern was Bieber who looked rough, but his Stuff+ was still in line with his 2022-24 seasons despite the velo dip, so hopefully it's just rust and he's a decent #3 moving forward.

The offense also feels like it's starting to come around. We are inching are way toward league average wRC+ and the problems now seem to be almost solely due to a 82 wRC+ with RISP which is dead last. That's not going to last all season.

It just really sucks to score 6 runs (7 if you count extras) and still lose with the way this offense has struggled all year.

Gotta win the games when the offense can put up 5+