Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2026)

[hanton]

On 4/26/2026 at 9:56 AM, Laika said:

Where to go with Kaz Okamoto? From a coaching perspective 

It seemed like Toronto considered him to have a better hit tool and better athleticism 

The criticisms of his defense may have been accurate. And he's slow. 

The whiff rate is concerning.

But the power is very real and probably better than anticipated.

This doesn't look like a .265 hitter who might hit 15-20 home runs. 

Gives me Matt Chapman flashbacks offensively 

Need to see more

the scouting reports / write up that I saw on mlbtr seem accurate at least before this current power surge. "Scouts who talked to MLBTR about Okamoto feel he’s a second-division regular at the hot corner or first base but more of a part-time bat on a deeper, contending roster."    but what's missing from that is any major league development, working with Popkins etc.  So I think we need to wait and see.

[Brownie19]

18 hours ago, Stangstag said:

Yeah still way too early to be saying he won’t stick at 3rd or wont be a useful bat.

Agreed.  He isn't Brooks Robinson at 3rd, but I don't think he's been awful.  Give him some time, let him settle in.

[Laika]

Okamoto's start gives us a baseline of his raw skills 

Still big error bars on things but certain characteristics are hard-coded and visible 

He can handle third base (that is good to see) but he is not rangy or impressively athletic (meaty legs) so I am thinking the ceiling there is like, a 0 OAA 3B over an entire season. He seems to have good hands, actions, decisions so even if he is a -5 or worse, perhaps it is the variety that doesn't demoralize the team or really stand out in a bad way.  

The K and BB rates are starting to approach stability, according to the typical baseball research. Since he changed leagues perhaps we need to extend that timeline but I will offer this:

Seiya Suzuki NPB in 2020, 2021: 14.2% and 16.5% K rates
Seiya Suzuki MLB career: 24.9% K rate

That's an 8.4-10.7% jump 

Yoshida NPB: 5.7% and 8.1%
Yoshida MLB: 12.9%  

4.8 to 7.2% jump (but even bigger in a relative sense, i.e. more than twice as many strikeouts as the one year)

Okamoto's last three NPB years were 11.3%, 15.9%, and 18.8%. So his baseline in NPB was more variable than the others. But he is also 30, compared to Suzuki who was 27 and not declining yet when he came over. So if you think that Okamoto's projected NPB K rate in 2026 and onward would have been 16% or higher, then an MLB K rate in the upper 20s completely tracks. The 32.4% rate so far does seem a bit too high, though. 

The closest qualified players to him in 2026 WHIFF RATE are: 

Benintendi (36.4, 17.9), Happ (30.0, 26.5), James Wood (31.2, 31.0), Manzardo (34.1, 26.6), Teoscar (29.7, 29.0), Gorman (28.7, 33.7), Corbin Carroll (25.7, 21.3)

The numbers in parenthesis are their 2026 and career K rates 

I don't know how instructive that list is. There are some positives and negatives. Swing rate is also an important toggle when it comes to K%. New comp strategy...

Swing rate 43.8%, SwStr% 14.3% = these or Kaz's 2026 rates. He has been quite passive. 

Here are the players since 2017, min 2000 PA, who Swing 45% of the time or less and whiff at least 10% of the time. I like this list because Soler and Suarez were comps in my head. 

Name	Swing%	SwStr%
Joey Gallo	0.449752	0.174126
Giancarlo Stanton	0.43603	0.13821
Aaron Judge	0.420069	0.130191
Jorge Soler	0.44018	0.127079
Justin Upton	0.437813	0.126623
Josh Donaldson	0.441655	0.124006
Wil Myers	0.445889	0.123176
Eugenio Suárez	0.446004	0.122826
Yoán Moncada	0.440443	0.122785
Randy Arozarena	0.43571	0.121344
Gary Sánchez	0.438873	0.121268
Kyle Schwarber	0.411116	0.116007
Mitch Haniger	0.439383	0.113168
Brandon Marsh	0.446173	0.112938
Jake Bauers	0.438735	0.111216
Michael Conforto	0.444153	0.106717
Matt Chapman	0.429325	0.105574
Shin-Soo Choo	0.412667	0.104272
Rowdy Tellez	0.447323	0.10366
Paul Goldschmidt	0.440822	0.102864
Christian Yelich	0.434609	0.102223
Max Muncy	0.391005	0.100207

[Laika]

One more stray point - Kaz cannot whiff 14.3% of the time and also be this passive. It doesn't show up on this list because it doesn't really work. He kind of needs to pick a path:

• Adjust and make more contact, OR
• Swing even less (Schwarber, Judge are 41% or 42% swing dudes)
• Swing more (guys who are more aggressive can be good with SwStr% of 14% or more because they put the ball in play and don't take strikes as often. Plenty of examples).  

[Orgfiller]

20 minutes ago, Laika said:

One more stray point - Kaz cannot whiff 14.3% of the time and also be this passive. It doesn't show up on this list because it doesn't really work. He kind of needs to pick a path:

• Adjust and make more contact, OR
• Swing even less (Schwarber, Judge are 41% or 42% swing dudes)
• Swing more (guys who are more aggressive can be good with SwStr% of 14% or more because they put the ball in play and don't take strikes as often. Plenty of examples).  

I think one thing his early season eye test has shown, is that when he's been struggling he's been really in between. No real conviction on swinging early at good pitches, he panics once he gets to 2 strikes and does weird half swings because striking out is dishonourable in Japanese culture or whatever.

I think if he can't over having his best "A" swing at all times, or isn't good enough to stay alive on 2 strike counts, then he needs to be swinging earlier looking to do damage. Part of this I think hopefully can come during the adjustment period, once he gets more comfortable with how the league approaches him. He's a very powerful hitter who can do serious damage to all parts of the field, and can connect on velocity. The early numbers show he doesn't chase a lot, and I think he can get even better here once he's less in between after getting more exposure to MLB pitching.

Take your walks, swing hard all the time, and try to do your damage early if 2 strike counts continue to be a problem. I think this will indicate if he needs to be swinging more or less often.

[Brownie19]

9 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

I think one thing his early season eye test has shown, is that when he's been struggling he's been really in between. No real conviction on swinging early at good pitches, he panics once he gets to 2 strikes and does weird half swings because striking out is dishonourable in Japanese culture or whatever.

I think if he can't over having his best "A" swing at all times, or isn't good enough to stay alive on 2 strike counts, then he needs to be swinging earlier looking to do damage. Part of this I think hopefully can come during the adjustment period, once he gets more comfortable with how the league approaches him. He's a very powerful hitter who can do serious damage to all parts of the field, and can connect on velocity. The early numbers show he doesn't chase a lot, and I think he can get even better here once he's less in between after getting more exposure to MLB pitching.

Take your walks, swing hard all the time, and try to do your damage early if 2 strike counts continue to be a problem. I think this will indicate if he needs to be swinging more or less often.

This seems like it's right out of the Popkin's playbook.  Hopefully Oka just needs more time with Popkins and more time to adjust to the league.

[Spanky__99]

4 hours ago, hanton said:

Need to see more

the scouting reports / write up that I saw on mlbtr seem accurate at least before this current power surge. "Scouts who talked to MLBTR about Okamoto feel he’s a second-division regular at the hot corner or first base but more of a part-time bat on a deeper, contending roster."    but what's missing from that is any major league development, working with Popkins etc.  So I think we need to wait and see.

And the outfits of say Baseball America contrast this heavily, who the f*** does MLBTR know in the industry, I feel this is just lip service, click bait from the site.

[The_DH]

3 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

This seems like it's right out of the Popkin's playbook.  Hopefully Oka just needs more time with Popkins and more time to adjust to the league.

I heard it said that he'd probably need about 200 AB's to get acclimated.  In terms of defense, he seems to be getting used to positioning which seems like no big deal.  In terms of offense, he just seems to be having difficulty reading curveball vs sweepers low and away.  That looks like it can be dealt with.

[hanton]

3 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

And the outfits of say Baseball America contrast this heavily, who the f*** does MLBTR know in the industry, I feel this is just lip service, click bait from the site.

nothing click bait about it, it was part of the FA write ups before all the signings; and where do you think mlbtr get the reports from?

[hanton]

3 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

And the outfits of say Baseball America contrast this heavily, who the f*** does MLBTR know in the industry, I feel this is just lip service, click bait from the site.

nothing click bait about it, it was part of the FA write ups before all the signings; and where do you think mlbtr get the reports from?  if u have the BA write up post it

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, hanton said:

nothing click bait about it, it was part of the FA write ups before all the signings; and where do you think mlbtr get the reports from?  if u have the BA write up post it

I have several times. Here...

 

Kazuma Okamoto, 1B/3B

BA Grade: 55 | Risk: Mild | Adjusted: 50

Born: June 30, 1996 | B-T: R-R | HT: 6-0 | WT: 212

Track Record: Known as the “Young General,” Okamoto is a six-time NPB all-star who has led the league in home runs three times. He made the Yomiuri Giants’ first team in 2018 after three years in the Eastern League, the equivalent of the Japanese minor leagues. Once breaking in, Okamoto established himself quickly, producing seven-consecutive seasons of 25 or more home runs leading up to 2025. He was a key part of Japan’s 2023 World Baseball Classic team, hitting .333/.556/.722 over seven games in the tournament. His home run off of Kyle Freeland in the fourth inning of the WBC final against the United States proved to be the deciding run. Okamoto was limited to 69 games in 2025 after an elbow injury in the first half, but he returned to hit .327/.416/.598 with 15 home runs.  

Scouting Report: One of the most well-rounded players in Japan over the last decade, Okamoto is a highly-skilled player both at the plate and in the field. He combines the ability to hit for power while limiting swing-and-miss, which he shows a little of but while displaying good bat-to-ball skills compared to other sluggers. Okamoto does particular damage against fastballs, against which he whiffed less than 10% of the time in 2025. He has shown strong on-base skills, limiting chase swings and remaining aggressive on pitches inside the zone. His game power is above-average, as he combines 55-grade raw power with the ability to launch the ball to all fields. Okamoto falls into the category of hitters who make consistent hard contact at good angles but with a lack of high-end exit velocity numbers. He will likely settle into the 20-25 home run range with a good supporting batting average and on-base percentage. In the field, he’s an above-average defender at third base, and he’s won multiple equivalents of the NPB Gold Glove. He’s a plus-plus defender at first base and offers his signing team defensive versatility. 

The Future: Okamoto should immediately make an impact in MLB thanks to a combination of polished hitting, game power and above-average infield corner defense. 

Scouting Grades: HIT: 50 | POW: 55 | RUN: 40 | FLD: 55 | ARM: 55

[Laika]

 

 

[Jays24]

[Laika]

You can embed tweets eh. Just copy the share link and paste it. Then hit enter and wait one second, it will embed.

[Laika]

The Blue Jays arguably have the best bullpen in the sport 

0.3 fWAR behind the Padres, but a better xFIP.

The best K% in baseball and the best K-BB% in baseball by a significant margin. 

Tied for 2nd in Pitching+

Some great diversity and funk

BABIP and HR/FB numbers are very bad, or unlucky, depending on the narrative you want to spin

[Terminator]

Varland is looking good out there as closer. When in doubt the guy that throws harder is better.

First pitch last night he throws one right down the middle to Roman Anthony but because it was 99 mph Anthony couldn't do anything with it other than fouling it off,

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

The Blue Jays arguably have the best bullpen in the sport 

0.3 fWAR behind the Padres, but a better xFIP.

The best K% in baseball and the best K-BB% in baseball by a significant margin. 

Tied for 2nd in Pitching+

Some great diversity and funk

BABIP and HR/FB numbers are very bad, or unlucky, depending on the narrative you want to spin

I'm still hoping that Yimi Garcia makes it back this season with his stuff intact as he would be a fine replacement for Varland in the fireman role.

[Brownie19]

5 minutes ago, max silver said:

I'm still hoping that Yimi Garcia makes it back this season with his stuff intact as he would be a fine replacement for Varland in the fireman role.

that would be such a shot in the arm for this pen.  Garcia is money when healthy.

Garcia, Hoffman, Rogers, Varland would be gross.

[Eat My Shatkins]

3 minutes ago, max silver said:

I'm still hoping that Yimi Garcia makes it back this season with his stuff intact as he would be a fine replacement for Varland in the fireman role.

Would also be nice if Little brought his AAA confidence and performance back to MLB.  Seems like with his stuff, he could legit be one of the best lefty relievers in baseball. 

[Eat My Shatkins]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

The Blue Jays arguably have the best bullpen in the sport 

0.3 fWAR behind the Padres, but a better xFIP.

The best K% in baseball and the best K-BB% in baseball by a significant margin. 

Tied for 2nd in Pitching+

Some great diversity and funk

BABIP and HR/FB numbers are very bad, or unlucky, depending on the narrative you want to spin

Waaaait a minute. This is the BP with Tommy Nance included? Can't be true. Whiffle's been spittin' "facts" haha

[max silver]

2 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Would also be nice if Little brought his AAA confidence and performance back to MLB.  Seems like with his stuff, he could legit be one of the best lefty relievers in baseball. 

Yeah it would be nice if Little could make his way back but I'm not holding my breath. He's still walking far too many batters at this point and it appears as though his command still needs a lot of improvement. 

[max silver]

1 minute ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Waaaait a minute. This is the BP with Tommy Nance included? Can't be true. Whiffle's been spittin' "facts" haha

Don't you remember when Nance was "hammered" in a game where he pitched 1-1/3 innings and gave up a single and a walk? 

[Laika]

6 minutes ago, max silver said:

I'm still hoping that Yimi Garcia makes it back this season with his stuff intact as he would be a fine replacement for Varland in the fireman role.

Yeah on top of the great pen performance so far, the depth is quite good 

• Yimi back in a month or so, hopefully
• Little high upside in AAA
• Chase Lee, decent potential in AAA
• Mantiply performing very well in low leverage at MLB
• Y Rod is doing great in AAA
• Dallas and Juenger both doing fine in AAA
• Adam Macko converting to an RP doing okay 
• Javen Coleman in AA has set himself out as a legit RP prospect 

[Eat My Shatkins]

5 minutes ago, Laika said:

 

• Javen Coleman in AA has set himself out as a legit RP prospect 

14 to 1 K/9 to BB/9

Better get him up to AAA ASAP so his BB/9 can balloon

Seriously though, one of these days one of these promising young relievers is going to dominate his way to AAA and then not get blown the f*** up once he gets there. It's going to happen, I can feel it.

[gruber9292]

23 minutes ago, max silver said:

Don't you remember when Nance was "hammered" in a game where he pitched 1-1/3 innings and gave up a single and a walk? 

He shouldn't have stayed in the game after one shut out inning to face the top of the order the next inning in a tie game late. Horrible move on Schneider's part. 

[max silver]

14 minutes ago, gruber9292 said:

He shouldn't have stayed in the game after one shut out inning to face the top of the order the next inning in a tie game late. Horrible move on Schneider's part. 

The team was really short on arms in that particular game as I believe all of Hoffman, Varland and Rogers were unavailable. Fisher came in and immediately allowed a walk and a double so it's not necessarily on Nance in the first place for the runs that crossed the plate.

[gruber9292]

7 minutes ago, max silver said:

The team was really short on arms in that particular game as I believe all of Hoffman, Varland and Rogers were unavailable. Fisher came in and immediately allowed a walk and a double so it's not necessarily on Nance in the first place for the runs that crossed the plate.

Yeah I just don't think potentially saving one inning on a different RP vs trying to win the game makes sense. On a team that overvalues metrics, Fisher should have been facing the top of their line up, not a second inning from Nance. Is Miles hurt, because he could have been an option, especially in a tie game in the eighth where he can potentially give us multiple innings. Imo, Nance should be in Buffalo figuring it out. Ross should take a shot at this Coleman kid in AA over Nance. 

[Spanky__99]

3 hours ago, Laika said:

The Blue Jays arguably have the best bullpen in the sport 

0.3 fWAR behind the Padres, but a better xFIP.

The best K% in baseball and the best K-BB% in baseball by a significant margin. 

Tied for 2nd in Pitching+

Some great diversity and funk

BABIP and HR/FB numbers are very bad, or unlucky, depending on the narrative you want to spin

I post this yesterday in that thread about the complaints of our pen, it's ridiculous to say this pen isn't good on a contender. 😅🖕

[max silver]

1 hour ago, gruber9292 said:

Yeah I just don't think potentially saving one inning on a different RP vs trying to win the game makes sense. On a team that overvalues metrics, Fisher should have been facing the top of their line up, not a second inning from Nance. Is Miles hurt, because he could have been an option, especially in a tie game in the eighth where he can potentially give us multiple innings. Imo, Nance should be in Buffalo figuring it out. Ross should take a shot at this Coleman kid in AA over Nance. 

I think you aren't giving Nance the recognition he deserves. He doesn't have any remaining options and I believe he would be snatched up immediately if the team tried to send him down. He has nothing to figure out in Buffalo, he simply needs to strand more baserunners when they get on base. Nance had a single tough outing this season against the Dodgers, and was also victimized by Fisher allowing several of his runners to score in an inherited situation the other time he allowed multiple runs to cross the plate. Take a look at Fisher and Nance's respective xERA/FIP and tell me that Nance should be jettisoned from the club:

Nance 3.75 xERA 3.38 FIP

Fisher 3.75 xERA 3.39 FIP

 

[R.O.]