Around Baseball 2026

[Spanky__99]

2 hours ago, Terminator said:

• Jurrangelo is the switch-pitcher who has made some Top 100 lists.
• Tai Peete is a power-hitting CF prospect with high boom/bust potential.
• And then Williamson who is an elite glove 3B that can't really hit. 

50 FV, 40+ FV, 40 FV for two years of Donovan seems like an overpay by the M's.*

*If the Jays made a similar deal I probably would have praised the move as a heist

Is that Longenhagen's FV numbers? He's super conservative. BA's numbers are much higher. But then again those numbers are outdated(FG's). BA has a 55 on Clintje, 60 on Peete and 40 on Willyson. 😜

 

[Brownie19]

39 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Im a big Suarez fan, but he’s getting up there in age and there’s been questions about the defense lately.

Any word if Geno will play 3rd for the Reds?  Is Ke'Bryan Hayes just a utility guy now?

Geno's bat feels like Teo's to me - the type of hitter with a high probability of just falling off a cliff at any moment.  But until that happens - fun guy to have crushing homers for your team.

[G-Snarls]

21 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Any word if Geno will play 3rd for the Reds?  Is Ke'Bryan Hayes just a utility guy now?

Geno's bat feels like Teo's to me - the type of hitter with a high probability of just falling off a cliff at any moment.  But until that happens - fun guy to have crushing homers for your team.

Per MLB Radio host who spoke with Reds' president of baseball ops: "Primary DH"

[Stangstag]

35 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Any word if Geno will play 3rd for the Reds?  Is Ke'Bryan Hayes just a utility guy now?

Geno's bat feels like Teo's to me - the type of hitter with a high probability of just falling off a cliff at any moment.  But until that happens - fun guy to have crushing homers for your team.

Yeah good comp, Teo/Santander/Suarez are all pretty similar with the bat.

[Spanky__99]

7 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

And? They're very similar hitters guy, Geno's DHing and periodically playing the corners is what was reported yesterday. Again, Santander is 3 years younger.

 

5 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Any word if Geno will play 3rd for the Reds?  Is Ke'Bryan Hayes just a utility guy now?

Geno's bat feels like Teo's to me - the type of hitter with a high probability of just falling off a cliff at any moment.  But until that happens - fun guy to have crushing homers for your team.

Per the GM of the Reds.

[jaysblue]

I think Santander’s age played some role, but not nearly as big as people are making it out to be when comparing his deal to what Suarez got. 

Timing mattered a lot for Santander. Last offseason was pretty thin for impact bats after Soto, so teams needing offense like the Jays didn’t have many alternatives. That scarcity definitely helped push his market. In 2024, Santander hit 44 HR with 100+ RBI and did it as a switch hitter, which matters a lot when you’re talking lineup flexibility and matchups. 

The Jays also probably had to go five years instead of three or four on Santander because it’s Toronto - they were coming off a losing season, and there was real uncertainty around Vlad at the time.

This offseason was much deeper, with more corner OF/DH options and bounce-back types available, so leverage is spread out more. If he hit free agency this year instead of last, the deal probably looks shorter and/or cheaper.

[mphenhef]

12 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Yeah figured Suarez would have to settle for only a one-year deal, especially at this point. Great value for a guy who has pretty much averaged 3-4 WAR per season. 

Would have been a nice fit on the Jays, but 3B and DH overcrowded already with Okamoto/Santander/Springer. 

Suarez was offered 2 years by the Pirates at least that we know of.  He chose 1 year with a known org instead.

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, mphenhef said:

Suarez was offered 2 years by the Pirates at least that we know of.  He chose 1 year with a known org instead.

Also gotta look at the market this offseason. LOTS of guys taking 1yr deals or deals with opt outs after year 1/2. Probably has to do with the CBA uncertainty.

[Laika]

Doesn't make sense to compare Santander and Suarez. Every FA market is its own context. 

Santander was projected for 4/$80m and got 5/$68.6m, as a 30 year old. It was not a bad contract at all, they weren't paying him to be that good, maybe hoping for a 2 win player for 3 years. Obviously year 1 went as bad as possible lol.

Suarez was projected for 3/$60m and got 1/$15m but probably turned down something like 2/$30m from the Pirates. At 34 years old. 

Interesting to see that all of Suarez's projections have nose-dived as he is a DH on the depth chart now. Not a single 2 WAR projection. 

It's pretty clear that teams think he is a butcher at 3B. So there is big disconnect between his expected 2026 value and his 2025 and prior WARs. 

[glory]

The Jays value defense and contact more than most teams, so I don’t think they would have been in on Suarez either way. The only hacker on the team is Varsho and he plays elite CF defense, and the only poor defensive player is Santander and he puts the ball in play (typically) a lot more.

I think it’s fair to say that if Atkins could have one back, he’d definitely pass on Santander last winter. They clearly expected Springer to play the OF a lot more than he did, but now that he’s firmly a DH, it makes Tony’s fit on this roster a lot more clunky. With that said, the contract isn’t terrible due to the deferrals. Just have to hope he has a couple of 30-40 HR seasons left in him. 

[Brownie19]

12 hours ago, G-Snarls said:

Per MLB Radio host who spoke with Reds' president of baseball ops: "Primary DH"

I suspect most teams no longer view him as a full time 3rd baseman - which is why his market wasn't as strong.

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, mphenhef said:

Suarez was offered 2 years by the Pirates at least that we know of.  He chose 1 year with a known org instead.

That's good to know.  I like seeing Pittsburgh and Cincy making efforts to sign guys like this.

[Brownie19]

12 hours ago, Stangstag said:

Yeah good comp, Teo/Santander/Suarez are all pretty similar with the bat.

Santander is a little different in that he doesn't strike out as much - he isn't 27%+ K rates like Teo/Suarez

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Santander is a little different in that he doesn't strike out as much - he isn't 27%+ K rates like Teo/Suarez

Which is exactly why this FO prioritized him over those guys. Plus he’s a switch hitter which is nice

[G-Snarls]

2 hours ago, glory said:

The Jays value defense and contact more than most teams, so I don’t think they would have been in on Suarez either way. The only hacker on the team is Varsho and he plays elite CF defense, and the only poor defensive player is Santander and he puts the ball in play (typically) a lot more.

I think it’s fair to say that if Atkins could have one back, he’d definitely pass on Santander last winter. They clearly expected Springer to play the OF a lot more than he did, but now that he’s firmly a DH, it makes Tony’s fit on this roster a lot more clunky. With that said, the contract isn’t terrible due to the deferrals. Just have to hope he has a couple of 30-40 HR seasons left in him. 

Agreed. Jays would not have been interested in Suarez or Arraez 

[G-Snarls]

Having Springer and Santander both on the roster really means anyone they bring in has to be usable/good defensively

[Jonn]

On 2/2/2026 at 8:32 PM, Stangstag said:

30 yrs old vs 34, are you restarted my dude?

I don't give a s*** about the age of a player who is signed to a one year deal lol. I just think its crazy Geno got that in comparison.

[Spanky__99]

18 hours ago, mphenhef said:

Suarez was offered 2 years by the Pirates at least that we know of.  He chose 1 year with a known org instead.

That's interesting, projections have the Pirates as a better team than the Reds. The familiarity definitely won out.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/div

[Spanky__99]

Fangraphs have the M's as the beasts of the AL...

 

AL East

	2026 Results				2026 Projections
Team	W	L	W%	GB	Proj W	Proj L	ROS W%	Strength of Sched	Win Div	Clinch Bye	Clinch Wild Card	Make Playoffs	Win WS
Yankees	0	0	.000	0.0	86.2	75.8	.532	.502	30.8%	26.3%	38.4%	69.2%	5.8%
Blue Jays	0	0	.000	0.0	84.9	77.1	.524	.503	23.4%	19.6%	38.1%	61.5%	4.7%
Red Sox	0	0	.000	0.0	84.9	77.1	.524	.504	23.2%	19.8%	38.6%	61.8%	5.0%
Orioles	0	0	.000	0.0	83.8	78.2	.517	.502	18.4%	15.4%	35.7%	54.1%	3.4%
Rays	0	0	.000	0.0	77.9	84.1	.481	.505	4.2%	3.2%	16.8%	21.0%	0.6%

AL Central

	2026 Results				2026 Projections
Team	W	L	W%	GB	Proj W	Proj L	ROS W%	Strength of Sched	Win Div	Clinch Bye	Clinch Wild Card	Make Playoffs	Win WS
Tigers	0	0	.000	0.0	84.2	77.8	.520	.495	46.0%	23.8%	15.3%	61.4%	4.0%
Royals	0	0	.000	0.0	81.1	80.9	.501	.496	25.9%	11.6%	15.4%	41.4%	1.8%
Twins	0	0	.000	0.0	80.1	81.9	.494	.497	20.2%	8.7%	14.7%	35.0%	1.5%
Guardians	0	0	.000	0.0	75.6	86.4	.467	.499	7.2%	2.3%	6.8%	14.1%	0.4%
White Sox	0	0	.000	0.0	67.9	94.1	.419	.503	0.6%	0.1%	0.7%	1.2%	0.0%

AL West

	2026 Results				2026 Projections
Team	W	L	W%	GB	Proj W	Proj L	ROS W%	Strength of Sched	Win Div	Clinch Bye	Clinch Wild Card	Make Playoffs	Win WS
Mariners	0	0	.000	0.0	87.7	74.3	.541	.496	59.0%	44.4%	18.8%	77.9%	8.5%
Astros	0	0	.000	0.0	81.3	80.7	.502	.498	17.3%	11.1%	22.4%	39.7%	1.8%
Rangers	0	0	.000	0.0	80.0	82.0	.494	.500	13.0%	7.9%	19.4%	32.4%	1.3%
Athletics	0	0	.000	0.0	78.3	83.7	.483	.501	8.9%	5.1%	14.4%	23.3%	0.8%
Angels	0	0	.000	0.0	72.9	89.1	.450	.505	1.7%	0.8%	4.3%	6.1%	0.1%

 

 

[Spanky__99]

Zips for the East...

 

ZiPS Projections – AL East Median Standings (1/29)

Team	W	L	GB	Pct	Div%	WC%	Playoff%	WS Win%	80th	20th
Toronto Blue Jays	90	72	—	.556	32.1%	40.5%	72.6%	4.8%	99.8	82.9
Boston Red Sox	90	72	—	.556	25.8%	46.7%	72.5%	4.9%	97.7	83.2
Baltimore Orioles	88	74	2	.543	22.2%	39.5%	61.7%	5.8%	97.3	79.8
New York Yankees	87	75	3	.537	18.9%	41.4%	60.3%	5.4%	96.0	79.7
Tampa Bay Rays	75	87	15	.463	1.1%	10.6%	11.7%	0.5%	82.6	67.5

[Stangstag]

5 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

Zips for the East...

 

ZiPS Projections – AL East Median Standings (1/29)

Team	W	L	GB	Pct	Div%	WC%	Playoff%	WS Win%	80th	20th
Toronto Blue Jays	90	72	—	.556	32.1%	40.5%	72.6%	4.8%	99.8	82.9
Boston Red Sox	90	72	—	.556	25.8%	46.7%	72.5%	4.9%	97.7	83.2
Baltimore Orioles	88	74	2	.543	22.2%	39.5%	61.7%	5.8%	97.3	79.8
New York Yankees	87	75	3	.537	18.9%	41.4%	60.3%	5.4%	96.0	79.7
Tampa Bay Rays	75	87	15	.463	1.1%	10.6%	11.7%	0.5%	82.6	67.5

Yankees 4th lol wow. This division man…

[G-Snarls]

Skubal's arbitration case is happening today

[Stangstag]

14 hours ago, Jonn said:

I don't give a s*** about the age of a player who is signed to a one year deal lol. I just think its crazy Geno got that in comparison.

Ok… but every front office does. That’s why the context of age matters when comparing deals.

[Laika]

14 hours ago, Jonn said:

I don't give a s*** about the age of a player who is signed to a one year deal lol. I just think its crazy Geno got that in comparison.

Silly opinion though. 

Aging curves get steeper as players get older! The expected decline is more intense AND there is a higher risk every year of completely being done. 

[Terminator]

We need a complete and total shutdown of this entire organization until we can figure out what the hell is going on.

[G-Snarls]

Red Sox singing IKF

That pretty much guarantees that two of his three total home runs this year will be against us LOL

[Jonn]

4 hours ago, Laika said:

Silly opinion though. 

Aging curves get steeper as players get older! The expected decline is more intense AND there is a higher risk every year of completely being done. 

I don’t think Santander gets a one year 15 million dollar deal right now regardless of age. He might be 4 years younger. He certainly doesn’t look or play it. Had every injury under the sun last year.

[Jonn]

10 minutes ago, Terminator said:

We need a complete and total shutdown of this entire organization until we can figure out what the hell is going on.

Why what does this have anything to do with Baseball? Do you think they spent it on Kyle Tucker instead lol?

[Terminator]

Red Sox make their big infield addition lmao

[glory]

IKF signing somewhere else is one of the best Jays moves of the off-season.