Around Baseball 2026

[max silver]

11 hours ago, John_Havok said:

Hahahahshahs thats utterly ridiculous 

4/260... 30 million deferred...opt out after 2028. 

 

Does Tucker still stand to receive deferred money even if he opts out? Maybe it works as a percentage based on how many years he stays with the Dodgers or something of that sort. 

[jaysblue]

5 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Ya getting Bo is important.  We need top tier offensive talent, which is why many, including the Jays themselves wanted Tucker. 

We have elite level depth but sometimes its just about having your best players carry you in moments.  Cant expect only Vladdy and an aging Springer to be those guys.  

Yup, projections are useful and all, but a lot can happen over a 162-game season and having top-tier offensive talent can make a real difference, especially in the biggest moments, like a tight postseason game. Adding another bat, whether it’s Bo or Bellinger, would be an important upgrade.

I don’t think we can just maintain the status quo when it comes to the lineup, especially with World Series aspirations.

[Laika]

17 minutes ago, glory said:

Does Tucker have one elite skill? Like he has good power, not great. Defense used to be good, now it’s declined (possibly due to injury). Good baserunner but not fast. Good exit velocity, not great. He’s like a really good “jack of all trades, master of none” player that is now one of the highest paid players in league history. It’s actually baffling. I don’t want to undersell him, a 4-5 WAR player is really good, but he’s still a corner OF at age 29. 

This feels like someone with Steve Cohen’s wealth going to an auction and outbidding everyone by overpaying for a car he doesn’t need. It just feels off.

You could say that his plate discipline skills are elite. Maybe "barrel control" or something like that. 

As far as traditional tools go, no nothing is elite. One of those soft five tool guys where it is more 50s and 60s across the board. 

He's actually quite similar to Alex Bregman, except Bregman has the plus 3B defense as an additional carrying tool. 

[Laika]

Just now, jaysblue said:

Yup, projections are useful and all, but a lot can happen over a 162-game season and having top-tier offensive talent can make a real difference, especially in the biggest moments, like a tight postseason game. Adding another bat, whether it’s Bo or Bellinger, would be an important upgrade.

I don’t think we can just maintain the status quo when it comes to the lineup, especially with World Series aspirations.

I just don't think they need to panic for a bat. 

Bo and Bellinger and flawed players. There is a price point where they make sense. Let's see what they get first. I would hate to see a panic contract for Bo where he gets some massive 8 year deal from Toronto. 

There will be other chances to add talent. Trades, etc. The free agency lists in 2027 and 2028 look weaker but a lot can change, players develop etc. 

[max silver]

1 hour ago, jaysblue said:

What if the Blue Jays signed Tucker to a 10-year deal as were the rumours of what he was being offered? Would other fans quit baseball as well? 

Don't be so obtuse. A 10 year deal that settles into something $35 million AAV feels a helluva lot more reasonable than the $60 million AAV Tucker ended up receiving. On top of that the Dodgers are paying a 110% surcharge so in essence signing Tucker is actually costing them more like $120 million+ which is more than a lot of entire team's payrolls. 

[jaysblue]

Also, let’s not forget that bringing back Bo or signing Bellinger would allow the Jays to better structure their lineup, especially in the postseason. It gives them the flexibility to slot bats like Varsho, Clement, and Giménez lower in the order rather than forcing them into middle-of-the-lineup roles. In a tight postseason game, that kind of lineup balance really matters.

[Olerud363.354]

53 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Need to replace Bo's 4 WAR somehow on the positional player front.

They already replaced him with Okamoto though.  Everyone else on the position player side is coming back.   Eyeballing the average of projections Okamoto is 2.5, Bo 4.0.  So they are down 1.5 WAR, not 4.0.  

Adding Bo back in and reallocating playing time would be worth a projected win or two since he won't be replacing a 0 WAR player.   Obviously in real life this all depends on who gets injured.  I guess if Clement or Giminez got injured or severely under-performed it would be nice to have more middle infield depth. 

 

[Laika]

2 minutes ago, max silver said:

Does Tucker still stand to receive deferred money even if he opts out? Maybe it works as a percentage based on how many years he stays with the Dodgers or something of that sort. 

The deferred money would be specific to a year and earned in that year, just paid later. If there is $5 deferred from 2026, then yeah he earns that money in 2026 by playing so he gets it down the line. 

[jaysblue]

2 minutes ago, Laika said:

I just don't think they need to panic for a bat. 

Bo and Bellinger and flawed players. There is a price point where they make sense. Let's see what they get first. I would hate to see a panic contract for Bo where he gets some massive 8 year deal from Toronto. 

There will be other chances to add talent. Trades, etc. The free agency lists in 2027 and 2028 look weaker but a lot can change, players develop etc. 

I get that and I agree it shouldn’t be a panic move or a bad contract just for the sake of it. There’s definitely a price point where both Bo and Bellinger make sense, and anything beyond that would be tough to justify.

That said, I don’t think adding a bat now is about panic as much as it is about maximizing a real competitive window. Projections only tell part of the story, and over a 162-game season - and especially in the postseason where top-tier offensive talent can swing games.

You can always add talent later via trades, but that usually comes at a higher cost in prospects and depth. Free-agent markets also look good on paper years out, but they’re unpredictable. If there’s a chance to add impact offense at the right price now, I think it’s worth seriously considering rather than assuming there will be better opportunities later.

[L54]

36 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

At the start of the offseason after the Cease signing, a lot of posters on here were salivating that the Blue Jays could sign both Bo and Kyle Tucker possibly, including myself. If the Jays did, nobody on here would be complaining. That would have likely brought the Jays payroll to around $370-$380M for 2026 also, which would be second in all of baseball and not too far behind the Dodgers. 

Sure, the Yankees, Mets, and possibly the Red Sox, Jays and Phillies could operate that same way if they wanted to. They might not go to the extremes of the Dodgers, will agree. 

If my aunt had a dick she’d be my uncle 

It was clearly never going to happen lol. Do you think people would be saying the Pirates are bad for baseball if they had signed Tucker and Bo this offseason as well? Probably not. Why? 
 

well because they aren’t the ones who have only 1/3 of their TV revenue taxed which puts more money in the pockets of the multi billion asset management ownership 

Then there is the argument that just ANYONE can just do the same thing. Nobody is choosing Cincinnati or Cleveland over the Dodgers without a 10-20% tax

[Laika]

At least some of these Dodgers contracts are actually massive, and the league has appropriately price-enforced. 

They are rich as hell but every organization has a limit and who knows, maybe some of these players crumble and they end up with an inflexible and less competitive roster for years. 

Ohtani could break. Mookie already looks a bit old. Scamamoto is a pitcher. Tucker doesn't even like baseball and might be the biggest Rendon risk since Rendon himself. Snell is a stoner frog. 

[Laika]

The Roster Resource payroll pages have the annual breakdown and it is even worse. 

Dude could make $152m in two years and then opt out and try for a $300m contract into retirement. At $76M I don't even understand it for the Dodgers. You are paying a guy to be worth 6+ WAR and he has never done it? And that's before the luxury tax cost. 

$76,000,000

$76,000,000

$44,000,000

$44,000,000

[jaysblue]

12 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

They already replaced him with Okamoto though.  Everyone else on the position player side is coming back.   Eyeballing the average of projections Okamoto is 2.5, Bo 4.0.  So they are down 1.5 WAR, not 4.0.  

Adding Bo back in and reallocating playing time would be worth a projected win or two since he won't be replacing a 0 WAR player.   Obviously in real life this all depends on who gets injured.  I guess if Clement or Giminez got injured or severely under-performed it would be nice to have more middle infield depth. 

 

I agree that Okamoto helps offset some of the loss, and I think that’s an important distinction. This isn’t a straight 4-WAR hole. That said, projections and WAR averages still only capture part of the picture.

Adding Bo isn’t just about replacing raw WAR; it’s about where that production comes from and how it’s distributed in the lineup. An extra high-end bat gives you more margin for variance, injuries, and underperformance over a 162-game season, and it allows you to better optimize playing time rather than forcing certain players into roles they’re not ideally suited for.

And in October, that difference can be magnified. A projected win or two in the regular season can translate into a much bigger edge in tight postseason games, especially when lineup depth and sequencing matter more than aggregate WAR totals.

[Laika]

1 minute ago, jaysblue said:

I agree that Okamoto helps offset some of the loss, and I think that’s an important distinction. This isn’t a straight 4-WAR hole. That said, projections and WAR averages still only capture part of the picture.

Adding Bo isn’t just about replacing raw WAR; it’s about where that production comes from and how it’s distributed in the lineup. An extra high-end bat gives you more margin for variance, injuries, and underperformance over a 162-game season, and it allows you to better optimize playing time rather than forcing certain players into roles they’re not ideally suited for.

And in October, that difference can be magnified. A projected win or two in the regular season can translate into a much bigger edge in tight postseason games, especially when lineup depth and sequencing matter more than aggregate WAR totals.

It would mostly be an October signing. 

In the playoffs you want the peak talent guy who can hit a 3 run homer off Ohtani

 

[John_Havok]

11 minutes ago, Laika said:

The Roster Resource payroll pages have the annual breakdown and it is even worse. 

Dude could make $152m in two years and then opt out and try for a $300m contract into retirement. At $76M I don't even understand it for the Dodgers. You are paying a guy to be worth 6+ WAR and he has never done it? And that's before the luxury tax cost. 

$76,000,000

$76,000,000

$44,000,000

$44,000,000

threepeat chances i guess. They want to be seen as the current dynasty 

[mphenhef]

15 minutes ago, Laika said:

The Roster Resource payroll pages have the annual breakdown and it is even worse. 

Dude could make $152m in two years and then opt out and try for a $300m contract into retirement. At $76M I don't even understand it for the Dodgers. You are paying a guy to be worth 6+ WAR and he has never done it? And that's before the luxury tax cost. 

$76,000,000

$76,000,000

$44,000,000

$44,000,000

hmmm, that's a CBT loophole contract if I've ever seen one.  I don't think the AAV currently accounts for likely opt outs for CBT purposes.

[Olerud363.354]

8 minutes ago, Laika said:

It would mostly be an October signing. 

In the playoffs you want the peak talent guy who can hit a 3 run homer off Ohtani

Anyone can have a moment though.  Varsho, Giminez, Barger, Davis Schneider and Miguel Rojas and old Max Muncy from the other side all hit big post season homeruns.  Varsho left on left against Snell in game 1 was as big as Bichette game 7. 

Barger hit .367 .441 .583 in post season and could have been World Series MVP. 

Not sure there is any magic beyond maximizing team WAR.  And adding Bo would add to that obviously. 

[jaysblue]

12 minutes ago, Laika said:

It would mostly be an October signing. 

In the playoffs you want the peak talent guy who can hit a 3 run homer off Ohtani

 

I agree with the premise, but that’s kind of the point, isn't it? October is where elite talent separates itself. Over a 162-game season you can survive with depth and optimization, but in the postseason you want guys who can change a game with one swing against top-end pitching.

You also have to factor in regression and risk. Springer could take a step back, and it’s fair to question whether breakout seasons from guys like Clement and Lukes are fully repeatable. Injuries inevitably happen as well. Expecting Vladdy to carry the offense again feels thin, so adding another top-tier bat alongside him would help stabilize the lineup during the season and raise the ceiling when the margins are razor-thin in October.

Adding another top-tier bat alongside Vlad doesn’t just add raw production. It allows for better lineup construction, especially in the Postseason. It gives the Jays the ability to push players like Clement, Giménez, and Varsho toward the bottom of the order rather than asking them to hit near the top or middle. In a tight playoff game, that kind of lineup balance and sequencing can be the difference.

 

[Laika]

6 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Anyone can have a moment though.  Varsho, Giminez, Barger, Davis Schneider and Miguel Rojas and old Max Muncy from the other side all hit big post season homeruns.  Varsho left on left against Snell in game 1 was as big as Bichette game 7. 

Barger hit .367 .441 .583 in post season and could have been World Series MVP. 

Not sure there is any magic beyond maximizing team WAR.  And adding Bo would add to that obviously. 

I think there must be something to the idea that "elite players are more likely to perform against elite opponents" and that those situations would come up more often in the playoffs but it's just a premise, and of course anecdotes and problematic sample sizes make it noisy to examine 

[jaysblue]

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[Laika]

One more point on the "they need to add a bat" argument. 

Last year they did desperately add TWO bats and neither worked out. Gimenez and Santander. 

Instead, what worked out last year was their ability to produce and develop talent from AAA. The heroes were Barger, Clement, Lukes, and to a lesser extent Heinemann, Straw and Schneider. And improve what they had (Kirk, Springer). 

It may be reasonable for the organization to lean into that strength, not panic, and instead properly value their unseen but MLB ready guys like Kasevich and Schreck. Or properly project for internal growth from certain players.   

[jaysblue]

20 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Anyone can have a moment though.  Varsho, Giminez, Barger, Davis Schneider and Miguel Rojas and old Max Muncy from the other side all hit big post season homeruns.  Varsho left on left against Snell in game 1 was as big as Bichette game 7. 

Barger hit .367 .441 .583 in post season and could have been World Series MVP. 

Not sure there is any magic beyond maximizing team WAR.  And adding Bo would add to that obviously. 

Totally agree that anyone can have a moment. October baseball is full of unexpected heroes, and those examples are all fair. You don’t need a star to have a big swing.

I think the difference is probability, not possibility. Maximizing team WAR absolutely matters over a season, but in the postseason you’re dealing with much smaller samples and elite pitching. Having more peak offensive talent increases the odds that those big moments come from players you trust to create damage consistently, not just occasionally.

It’s less about “magic” and more about stacking the deck - raising the floor of the lineup, improving sequencing, and not having to rely on multiple role players all peaking at the same time. Adding Bo does increase overall WAR, but it also concentrates more offensive upside where it matters most in October.

Also, think back to Game 3 of the World Series when critical scoring opportunities came up for the Jays in extras, and the at-bats fell to players like IKF, Clement, or Varsho, who were unable to deliver.  

[Laika]

 

This is officially Kyle Tucker Cope Day

Grab some haterade 

What is your least favourite thing about Kyle Tucker?

• No chin
• weak bat speed
• lazy defense 
• doesn't even like baseball 
• fricking 10 ply bud (soft) 

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, Jays24 said:

Ya getting Bo is important.  We need top tier offensive talent, which is why many, including the Jays themselves wanted Tucker. 

We have elite level depth but sometimes its just about having your best players carry you in moments.  Cant expect only Vladdy and an aging Springer to be those guys.  

 

1 hour ago, jaysblue said:

Yup, projections are useful and all, but a lot can happen over a 162-game season and having top-tier offensive talent can make a real difference, especially in the biggest moments, like a tight postseason game. Adding another bat, whether it’s Bo or Bellinger, would be an important upgrade.

I don’t think we can just maintain the status quo when it comes to the lineup, especially with World Series aspirations.

You 2 complaining that we really need another all-star level bat - claiming its so important and needed the most predictable thing I've seen this offseason.  If we don't sign Bo or Belly and the offense isn't a Top 3 unit this year, the next most predicable thing will be your complaints against Atkins.

Never change boys.

[L54]

11 minutes ago, Laika said:

 

This is officially Kyle Tucker Cope Day

Grab some haterade 

What is your least favourite thing about Kyle Tucker?

• No chin
• weak bat speed
• lazy defense 
• doesn't even like baseball 
• fricking 10 ply bud (soft) 

Happy I don’t have to wonder what happened to his chin for the next decade 

[jaysblue]

14 minutes ago, Laika said:

One more point on the "they need to add a bat" argument. 

Last year they did desperately add TWO bats and neither worked out. Gimenez and Santander. 

Instead, what worked out last year was their ability to produce and develop talent from AAA. The heroes were Barger, Clement, Lukes, and to a lesser extent Heinemann, Straw and Schneider. And improve what they had (Kirk, Springer). 

It may be reasonable for the organization to lean into that strength, not panic, and instead properly value their unseen but MLB ready guys like Kasevich and Schreck. Or properly project for internal growth from certain players.   

That’s a fair point and the internal development last year deserves real credit. The organization clearly did a strong job getting meaningful contributions from AAA, and guys like Barger, Clement, and Lukes were huge in keeping the lineup afloat. That’s absolutely a strength.

I don’t think the “add a bat” argument has to contradict that, though. It’s not about panicking or ignoring internal options. It’s about recognizing the limits of relying on multiple role players to repeat breakout seasons, especially in October. Internal growth is great for depth and sustainability, but elite offensive talent still tends to make a more significant impact. 

Leaning into development and adding one proven impact bat at the right price can coexist. One stabilizes the floor over 162 games, the other raises the ceiling when the margins shrink. The key, as you said, is valuation and not forcing a move, but also not assuming internal growth alone will be enough.

[jaysblue]

13 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

 

You 2 complaining that we really need another all-star level bat - claiming its so important and needed the most predictable thing I've seen this offseason.  If we don't sign Bo or Belly and the offense isn't a Top 3 unit this year, the next most predicable thing will be your complaints against Atkins.

Never change boys.

I don’t think it’s really about “complaining” or being predictable. It’s just a difference in how people evaluate risk and upside. Wanting another high-end bat isn’t a referendum on Atkins as much as it is about maximizing a competitive window and reducing downside.

If the offense ends up being top-3 without adding one, great - no one’s rooting against that. But given regression risk, injuries, and how thin the margins are in October, it’s reasonable to argue that adding another impact bat improves both the floor and the ceiling.

Disagreement on roster construction is part of the fun of the offseason. No need to make it personal. 

We’ve turned a corner and have been getting along for almost an entire year now. Let’s not slide back into personal attacks or online feuds.

[Terminator]

Kyle Tucker's 20 grade chin really sticks out in a Dodgers uniform

[max silver]

28 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

That’s a fair point and the internal development last year deserves real credit. The organization clearly did a strong job getting meaningful contributions from AAA, and guys like Barger, Clement, and Lukes were huge in keeping the lineup afloat. That’s absolutely a strength.

I don’t think the “add a bat” argument has to contradict that, though. It’s not about panicking or ignoring internal options. It’s about recognizing the limits of relying on multiple role players to repeat breakout seasons, especially in October. Internal growth is great for depth and sustainability, but elite offensive talent still tends to make a more significant impact. 

Leaning into development and adding one proven impact bat at the right price can coexist. One stabilizes the floor over 162 games, the other raises the ceiling when the margins shrink. The key, as you said, is valuation and not forcing a move, but also not assuming internal growth alone will be enough.

I don't really agree with the premise that guys like Lukes and Clement had "breakout" seasons, they were both essentially league average bats and I think they should have little issue continuing to be league average bats in the short term. 

[jaysblue]

4 minutes ago, max silver said:

I don't really agree with the premise that guys like Lukes and Clement had "breakout" seasons, they were both essentially league average bats and I think they should have little issue continuing to be league average bats in the short term. 

That’s fair in terms of the overall offensive line. They were roughly league-average bats. I think the “breakout” label is more about role and expectation than raw production. Both Lukes and Clement significantly outperformed what they’d previously shown at the MLB level, especially given how they were used.

The concern isn’t that they can’t remain league-average in the short term, but that league-average production looks different when those players are asked to hit higher in the order or shoulder more responsibility due to injuries or regression elsewhere. That’s where adding another impact bat helps. Not because Lukes or Clement are bad players, but because it limits how much you have to rely on them.