Is it Time for the Blue Jays to Commit Long Term to Trey Yesavage?

[Jesse Burrill]

At just 22 years old, Trey Yesavage has already lived a fascinating life. When most of us are his age, we're still trying to figure ourselves out, searching for a career, trying to find love, or even just trying to find a way to move out of our parents' basement.

Yesavage isn’t your typical 22-year-old. By now, we all know the story. Drafted in July of 2024, he began 2025 in Single A before making a meteoric rise throughout the system to the big leagues, and then making three appearances in the World Series. It's as much of a fairytale moment as you can get in baseball without winning the championship.

Shortly after the season concluded, the fairytale continued for Trey, as he announced on his Instagram that he and his girlfriend, Taylor, had gotten engaged! (Congrats from all of us at Jays Centre!) It capped off what will certainly be an extremely memorable year for Yesavage and his family.

Getting engaged is a sign of commitment, a sign that no matter what happens, two people will be there for each other through thick and thin. An engagement shows that you're connected; it’s represents the bond that the two of you have formed as you take on the world together. And just like Trey and Taylor did, maybe it’s time that the Blue Jays should make a commitment of their own by offering Yesavage a long-term extension to keep him in Toronto.

As things currently stand, Yesavage is still set to be a Blue Jay for years to come. He is in his pre-arbitration seasons and won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2029. He doesn't become a free agent until after the 2031 season, when he will hit the market as a 29-year-old.

It wouldn’t be unheard of for the Blue Jays to offer a guaranteed contract to a player as young as Yesavage. The Boston Red Sox just did it with their star outfielder Roman Anthony, giving him an eight-year, $130 million contract extension this summer. Jackson Merrill signed a nine-year, $135 million deal with the Padres in April, while Jackson Chourio, Bobby Witt Jr., and Corbin Carroll also signed similar early-career extensions in recent years.

The Blue Jays, however, have not historically been a team to do this; the only pre-arb extension they’ve ever given out was the  three-year, $3.7 million pact they made with a then 22-year-old Roy Hallyday in 2000, and it’s been 25 years since then.

The case for the extension makes sense. Yesavage has already shown he can get big league hitters out and do it on the biggest stage in baseball, despite being so young and inexperienced. Nothing in baseball is guaranteed, but if the Blue Jays believe that Yesavage is going to be a front-line starter for years to come, then giving him a small pay raise now, in exchange for long-term cost certainty, may be a smart investment. Star pitchers in baseball can make upwards of $35 million a season, and if Yesavage ends up signing a contract now, the Blue Jays could potentially have a starting pitcher who is worth that much money on a much cheaper deal, which could help keep the team competitive into the 2030s.

For Yesavage, it makes some sense, too. I'm sure that engagement ring wasn’t cheap, and being able to have some cost certainty throughout his career would be a major plus. Having guaranteed money attached to your name can provide a sort of comfort, a consistent feeling knowing that no matter what happens in your career, whether it's an injury or poor performance, the income will still be coming. With the arbitration process, that isn't necessarily a guarantee.

The main question that is going to have to be answered is how certain the Blue Jays are that Yesavage is going to be good and consistent for a long time. Pitchers are inherently injury-prone; the action of throwing the ball over the head causes a lot of strain on the elbow and shoulder, which can be a precursor to severe injuries. Yesavage also had a massive innings jump this year (174.2, compared to just 93 in his final season in college), and the fact that he throws with such a high arm angle means he puts more torque and pressure on the elbow than pitchers who throw more from the side, potentially putting him at higher risk for elbow issues going forward.

The last time the Blue Jays had a pre-arb pitcher pitch so well at the highest level was Alek Manoah, who debuted in 2021. He pitched to a 3.22 ERA over 20 starts that year and followed that up with a 6.0 bWAR season, where he made the All-Star team, made 31 starts and finished third in Cy Young Award voting. If the Blue Jays were to have given Maonah an extension then, nobody would have questioned it. It looked like Manoah was set to be the next Blue Jays ace. Yet injuries, setbacks and a decline in command, derailed his career. The Blue Jays DFA’d him in September, and he is now a member of the Atlanta Braves.

If the Blue Jays had given Manoah the big extension, then they would be stuck paying for a pitcher that isn't helping them win today. In hindsight, the fact that they didn’t looks like a smart move by the front office.

Now, Trey Yesavage isn’t Alek Manoah; they're different pitchers with different paths. For every story like Manoah’s (or, say, Nate Pearson’s) there comes along a Roy Halladay or a Dave Stieb who becomes the backbone and anchor of a pitching staff. The Blue Jays will factor in injury risk, but at some point, the potential of Yesavage might be too high, and the Blue Jays may want to explore an extension sooner rather than later. Especially as the offseason rolls on.

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[mphenhef]

"For every story like Manoah’s (or, say, Nate Pearson’s) there comes along a Roy Halladay or a Dave Stieb who becomes the backbone and anchor of a pitching staff"

 

This is more like for every 20 stories like Pearson or Manaoh there is a Halladay or Stieb.

 

I don't think you sign Trey to an extension right now when his value is arguably at its near peak.  I'd want to see how he handles the inevitable adjustment the league makes to his uniqueness first.

[John_Havok]

2 hours ago, mphenhef said:

"For every story like Manoah’s (or, say, Nate Pearson’s) there comes along a Roy Halladay or a Dave Stieb who becomes the backbone and anchor of a pitching staff"

 

This is more like for every 20 stories like Pearson or Manaoh there is a Halladay or Stieb.

 

I don't think you sign Trey to an extension right now when his value is arguably at its near peak.  I'd want to see how he handles the inevitable adjustment the league makes to his uniqueness first.

Stieb's and Halladay's are not 1 in 20 vs a Pearson or Manoah. Closer to 1 in 100 or even higher

[BTS]

Committing this early to a pitcher is a desperation gamble that poor teams like TB do to try and squeeze an extra year of control or two from elite prospects, with obvious downside risk. Toronto can afford to go year to year with Yesavage and then just pay him when he's a year or two from FA with an intact UCL. 

[Eat My Shatkins]

Teams like TO don't need to take risks like this. They'll go year by year and if he develops into an ace, when the time comes they will happily pay him like an ace.

[Laika]

If Yesavage threw 99 mph you might consider throwing a Franchise label on him now but the uncomfortable truth is that he does not have a lot of wiggle room on the velo front.

It's 56th percentile now, at 22. That number tends to only go down. 

For comparison, that fastball velo percentile is comparable to 2021 and 2022 Jose Berrios. 

Definitely wait and see how he ages. And how the league ages with him and adjusts to his weird arsenal. 

[jmomcc]

I would not extend him. I think there is still real risk he ends up a super nasty reliever. 

I think i'd only extend position players this early generally. 

[mphenhef]

Brandon Pfaadt

[Joltin Joe]

No, he could be another Rickey Romero

[L54]

No upside move 

Tons of downside 

no thank you