Jesse Burrill

The Blue Jays' lack of power has been a serious issue this year. Pick your favourite stat: home runs, ISO, average exit velocity, or hard-hit rate. The Blue Jays rank in the bottom third in the league in all of them, and that's part of the reason why they find themselves below .500 early in the season. Take a quick look at the wRC+ leaderboard for the team, and here’s what you’ll see: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 139 Myles Straw - 129 Kazuma Okamoto - 119 Ernie Clement - 100 Daulton Varsho - 96 * Stats going into games on May 5, min. 50 PA The name at the top isn't surprising. But what's more surprising: that the Blue Jays have only three hitters with a wRC+ over 100? Or that Myles Straw is one of them? While the answer to that is likely the former, it’s absolutely a surprise that Straw has been hitting the ball so well. His reputation is that of an elite defensive outfielder, a threat on the bases, and a good quality guy in the clubhouse. The bat, however, has always been an issue. Since 2020, he’s never had a wRC+ above 100, and he’s never hit more than four home runs in a season. It got to the point that the Cleveland Guardians had him play in the minors for most of 2024. Even with that elite speed and defence. Fast forward to 2026, and Straw has looked like a completely different hitter. The results speak for themselves, but the real story is how he's achieving them. Straw is swinging harder and, more importantly, pulling the ball in the air at a rate like never before. That's how you hit rockets into the upper deck. While Straw may never be a true impact power hitter, he’s been able to get the most out of his swings so far. via Baseball Savant The first change is how hard he’s been swinging. His bat speed has been up slightly, but the more meaningful jump is in his fast swing rate, which now sits at 15.5%. Across the league, swings over 75 mph produce a .389 wOBA compared to just .266 on slower swings. Straw may not always swing with elite bat speed, but he's been picking his moments to get a good hack in this year. Swinging harder is only part of the story. He’s made notable changes to where in the field he hits the ball. On a recent episode of Sportsnet's At The Letters, Arden Zwelling mentioned (minute 37) he spoke to Straw after Saturday’s game against the Twins, and Straw explained, “For like six years there, I just kept flying to right, and I decided I didn't want to do that anymore.” So far in 2026, the adjustment is showing up. Straw’s pull rate is the highest of his career, and with it has come a significant jump in production. As you can see, the Pull% is the highest it's been in his career, and the wOBA is elevated as a result. It’s the highest he's had since his nine-AB debut season in 2018. Damage typically doesn’t come from hard groundballs; it comes from balls hit in the air to the pull side. 32% of Straw's batted balls have been this batted ball type, a mark that not only leads the Blue Jays but also puts him in the top 15 in all of baseball. For reference, 66% of home runs across baseball are the result of pulled air balls, and pulled air balls result in a .733 wOBA vs. .353 on those that aren’t pulled in the air. What makes these changes even more impressive is that Straw hasn’t sacrificed contact to make them. His overall contact rate (90.8%) and zone contact rate (95.3%) are both career highs. At the same time, he's seeing fewer pitches in the strike zone, and he’s swinging less because of it. It's no coincidence he is the only Blue Jay with more walks than strikeouts this season. As these changes have taken effect, pitchers have responded by throwing Straw fewer strikes, a sign that the opposing teams are adjusting to the new version of Straw. More damage on contact, without giving up the ability to put the ball in play, is exactly what the Blue Jays want to see from their hitters. The obvious question is whether or not this production is sustainable. Some regression is likely over time, and while that still may be the case, the higher rate of swings and pulled contact in the air indicates a real change in approach. Even if the numbers do take a step back, the process behind them suggests this isn’t just a hot streak. The Blue Jays need more than just a Myles Straw breakout to fix their offense, but his emergence has been one of the few bright spots early in the season. By reshaping his swing, hitting the ball harder and consistently lifting it to his pull side, Straw has found a way to create the kind of damage he’s never done before. If the approach holds, this could be the start of a legitimate offensive breakout, not just a hot start, and that is something the Blue Jays desperately need. View full article

The Toronto Blue Jays' farm system has produced some impact bats in recent years. Players like Addison Barger and Davis Schneider played key roles during the club's 2025 World Series run, while homegrown stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk remain central to the current core. At the minor league level, however, the overall picture hasn't been as strong. As a system, the Blue Jays rank near the bottom in strikeout rate, on-base percentage, and wOBA while having the lowest exit velocity in affiliated baseball (where Statcast data is available). Some of that can be attributed to the recent success of the big league team and having fewer early-round draft picks, but it doesn’t fully explain the lack of impact production across the system. Even so, there are still reasons for optimism. Here, we will highlight the hitters who have stood out and forced their way onto the radar early in the season. Honourable Mentions Tucker Toman, 2B/3B (A+): 18 G, .311/.456/.492, 2 HR, 19.0 BB%, 27.8 K%, 170 wRC+ It's good to see some success from Toman, who struggled early in his minor league career. He’s abandoned switch-hitting and is now exclusively batting left-handed, and it's a change that is paying off. The underlying profile still raises some questions: a 65% groundball rate and a .447 BABIP suggest regression is likely. Still, the improved plate discipline and emerging power are real positives for Toman and bode well for him going forward. Josh Kasevich, SS (AAA): 26 G, .283/.365/.424, 1 HR, 10.6 BB%, 11.5 K%, 115 wRC+ Kasevich was one of the biggest standouts in spring training, and he’s carried that into the season with steady production. He leads all Blue Jays minor leaguers in doubles (8), owns a system-best 5.2% swinging-strike rate, and has even shown more aggressiveness on the bases after failing to successfully steal a base in 2025. With his profile, he’s firmly on the shortlist to make his MLB debut later this season. Peyton Williams, 1B (A/A+): 19 G, .339/.476/.508, 1 HR, 20.7 BB%, 14.6 K %, 172 wRC+ Williams has bounced back nicely after a disappointing 2025 season. The Blue Jays sent him back to Dunedin to start the year to help him reset and refine his approach, and so far, the results have been encouraging. He’s already moved back up to Vancouver, and he's showing a much more refined approach, walking more than he’s striking out while dramatically improving his contact ability (7.8% SwStr%, down from 15.6%). If that contact gains hold, the power he already possesses could allow him to get back on track and move quickly through the farm system. Top 3 #3 - Blaine Bullard, OF (A): 20 GP, .234/.322/.455 4 HR, 14 SB, 9.9 BB%, 36.3 K%, 109 wRC+ No first-year player has made more of an impact in the system than Bullard. The Blue Jays look sharp for having given the 12th-round pick an over-slot bonus in the 2025 draft, and he’s off and running. Literally. The speed is a true weapon, as he’s already accumulated a system-high 14 stolen bases through just 20 games played. Pair that with him hitting four home runs, and the power/speed combination immediately stands out. Bullard ranked 14th on Jays Centre's top prospects list coming into 2026, and if he can keep up this pace, he’s going to be much higher on our list by season's end. The strikeout rate (36.3%) is the clear concern, and it's what keeps him at number three in this piece, but there is no doubt that Bullard has been one of the most dynamic players in the system this month. #2 - Carter Cunningham, 1B/OF (A+): 23 GP, .299/.431/.609, 6 HR, 2 SB. 13.8 BB%, 25.7 K%, 185 wRC+ At 25 years old and in High A, it's time for Cunningham to dominate, and so far, he has. The 2024 10th-round pick has been on a tear to begin the 2026 season. He’s tapped into his power in a meaningful way. His 49% fly ball rate is a career high, and paired with a 53% pull rate, it is clear he’s made an intentional swing change, which is how hitters turn their raw power into game power. The results speak for themselves: his 23 RBI lead all Blue Jays minor leaguers. Just as importantly, he’s improved his contact skills, cutting his swinging-strike rate and increasing his contact rate, without sacrificing impact. He’s turned himself into a dynamic hitter, and the next step will be proving it against upper-level pitching, which will come quickly if this power binge continues. #1 - Sean Keys, 1B/3B (AA): 21 GP, .321/.436/.705, 9 HR, 1 SB, 11.7 BB%, 25.5 K%, 184 wRC+ In a system that has struggled to generate offensive impact, Keys has been the exception. After setting the Vancouver Canadians home run record in 2025, Keys picked up right where he left off, this time in Double A. His nine home runs not only lead the Blue Jays system, but all of Double A, and they're coming with authority. At 6-foot-1, 232 lbs, Keys has the build of an elite power hitter. He won’t maintain the 50+ home run pace he’s on, but it isn't a fluke stretch. The power is real, and it's showing up consistently, even in cold weather conditions in the Northeast. Keys is quickly turning himself into one of the most impactful power bats in the system. No hitter in the system has matched his combination of power, production, and impact, making him the clear choice at the top spot. What Keys is doing is impossible to ignore. For more on the slugging infielder, Jays Centre's Cory Sparks recently made a great video, which you can watch here. All stats up-to-date through games on April 30. View full article

Baseball can change, and baseball can change fast. Just take a look at Yariel Rodríguez. In 2024, he was a key piece in the starting rotation, making 21 starts and pitching to a respectable 4.47 ERA. In 2025, he joined the bullpen and was dynamite in the first half, with a 2.47 ERA and a 25.6% K rate. He quickly became a key high-leverage reliever for the team. But all that seems like a distant memory. Yariel struggled in the second half. His velocity dropped, the strikeouts followed, and everything else (walks, WHIP, and ERA) went in the wrong direction. With that, the man who was relied on heavily in the first half of the season was left off the playoff roster and has since found himself much further down on the depth chart. In what was a surprising move this offseason, the Blue Jays outrighted him off the 40-man roster entirely, and he went unclaimed on waivers. Rodríguez was then at a turning point in his career. He could accept that this was just the new normal and ride buses in the minor leagues for the remaining two years of his four-year deal, or he could get back to work and try to figure out how to get back to Toronto and help the big league team. So far in the minors, it looks like he chose the latter. Through Buffalo’s first 21 games of the season, Rodríguez has appeared in six of them (prior to games on April 21), throwing 8.2 IP, and early returns look promising. He has a respectable 3.12 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and he’s holding opposing hitters to a .133 batting average against. Under the hood, the numbers look even better. He’s sporting a 21.7% swinging-strike rate, which has led to an exceptional 47.2% K rate. That’ll play. Missing bats was never really the issue for Rodríguez; his problems had been a decline in velocity and in command. At first look, the walks are still elevated (13.9% BB rate), but he has been able to find the strike zone more consistently, currently sitting at 59% (95 of his 161 pitches have been strikes), which is up from the 56.5% he was at in the second half of 2025. As for his velocity? It's still down from the 96.1 mph he averaged in the first half of 2025, but in the second half, he sat around 95 mph, and that's right where he sits currently. 95 mph is still playable in the big leagues. In a small sample, the results have been promising, but it's how he’s getting the results that really stands out. He’s completely changed his pitch mix, throwing his fastball significantly less and leaning more heavily on his splitter. Here’s the pitch mix in 2025: And in 2026: So far, the splitter has led to exceptional results. Rodríguez has thrown 50 splitters this year. Here is how they have performed: Whiffs - 20 (40% of all splitters) Balls - 21 (42%) Fouled off - 3 (6%) Called Strikes - 2 (4%) Balls in play - 3 (6%) Hits allowed - 1 (2%) This has led to an outstanding 74.1% whiff rate (whiffs divided by total swings). There is certainly some small sample noise contributing to this, but you don't achieve high numbers like this by accident. For context, Trey Yesavage's splitter had a 57.1% whiff rate, and Brendon Little’s knuckle curve was at 55.6% in 2025. Major league hitters won't swing and miss as often as Triple-A bats, but still, Yariel Rodríguez has unlocked something with this wipeout pitch. So, should the Blue Jays call him up? Well, the simple answer is no. The small-sample change is encouraging, and with his revamped pitch mix, there is a legitimate case that he’s trending back to being a major league-calibre arm. But baseball is a game of adjustments; word of Yariel’s splitter will get around the league, and other lineups will adjust. This is similar to what happened to Little and his knuckle curve: He was striking out the world with that pitch, but other teams have learned to take it, and as a result, Little has been far less effective since. How Rodríguez reacts to these inevitable adjustments will give the Blue Jays a better sense of whether he’s ready to rejoin the team. There is also the issue of the players in front of him. No one has warranted losing their job. For as injury-prone as the Blue Jays have been as a whole, the bullpen has largely remained intact. Jeff Hoffman has had his struggles, but even if he’s removed from the closer role, he’ll still be on the roster. Louis Varland, Braydon Fisher, and Tyler Rogers have been terrific. And the Blue Jays risk losing Tommy Nance (out of options) or Spencer Miles (Rule 5 pick) if they decide to demote them from the roster. There simply isn’t a spot for Rodríguez on the roster right now. There’s also the issue that he is no longer on the 40-man. Chase Lee is likely the first name called up if there is a need for a right-handed pitcher in the bullpen, and the impending returns of Yesavage, José Berríos, and Yimi García are likely going to have an effect on the bullpen as well. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Yariel's return to the big leagues is not likely anytime soon. For now, Yariel Rodríguez can’t focus on that. He just needs to focus on what he can control, and right now, that's what he’s been doing on the pitcher's mound. If the splitter continues to miss bats at an elite level, then the Blue Jays will not be able to ignore him, and the conversation quickly becomes not if he’ll rejoin the big league team, but when. View full article

“It feels like we just keep getting punched in the mouth.” It wasn’t the first time Eric Lauer spoke about taking a punch to the mouth. But this time, instead of joking about a fat lip courtesy of Max Scherzer, he was talking about something far more damaging: the injury bug that has battered the Blue Jays early in the 2026 season. “It’s one of those things where we want it to just stop at some point. But we’ve just got to keep going through it, hoping the next guy steps up. Keep grinding.” Lauer has a point, and you can tell that the injury bug has gotten to the Blue Jays. Just this week, George Springer fouled a ball on his left toe, causing a fracture. After getting X-rays done, the Blue Jays decided to put him on the 10-day IL, joining several of his teammates that are currently hurt, only 15 games into the young season (as of April 14). Springer joins a list of offensive players on the sidelines that includes Addison Barger, who is on the 10-day IL with a sprained ankle, Alejandro Kirk who is out with a fractured thumb, and, dating back to the spring, the Blue Jays can factor in Anthony Santander, who had shoulder surgery in February and will likely not be back until September, if he returns at all. On paper, the Blue Jays are missing four of their projected top six hitters, and although they have depth on the roster, it's a situation no team wants. On the pitching side, things aren’t much better. Shane Bieber, Bowden Francis, José Berríos, and Trey Yesavage were all expected to be key pieces in the starting rotation. Yimi García was set to be a flamethrower out of the bullpen, but none of them left spring training healthy. Cody Ponce, who was expected to be a key part of the rotation after signing a three-year, $30 million contract this winter, lasted only 2.1 innings before he tore his ACL and is expected to miss most, if not all, of the 2026 season. There’s no way to sugarcoat it; the injuries have been brutal, and they're a big reason why the Blue Jays are below .500 early in the season. But just how bad have things been? The Blue Jays actually don’t have the highest number of players on the injured list (the Diamondbacks lead the way with 13), but in terms of the expected value of their hurt players, no team in baseball has been hit harder than the Toronto Blue Jays. Graphic per the Baseball Prospectus Injured List Ledger Coming into the season, Baseball Prospectus projected the Blue Jays to win about 88 games and produce approximately 41.4 WARP (wins above replacement player). Through just 15 games, the Blue Jays have already lost a meaningful chunk of their projected production to injuries. If that pace holds (nearly 1.0 WARP lost every 15 games), it would equate to about 10 fewer wins than expected coming into the season, which would be the difference between making the playoffs and missing them entirely. Yesavage is reportedly nearing his return, while Springer isn't expected to be out for long. Still, Bieber, Ponce, Santander, García, and Berríos are set to miss significant time, and it's almost certain more players will get hurt between now and the end of the season. It hasn’t been all injuries; the Blue Jays haven't necessarily played their best on the field, either. But PECOTA now projects Toronto to end up with just 83.5 wins overall, a pretty sizeable drop this early on in the season. That's still the fifth-highest win projection in the American League. The concern is whether it keeps dropping. Every season, one team gets decimated by injuries. In 2025, it was the Houston Astros, who lost 12.44 WARP and narrowly missed the playoffs on the final day of the season. In 2024, the Atlanta Braves lost even more value (13.11 WARP), and they still made it in. The Blue Jays now find themselves in this exact situation, and there is no single blueprint for how a season like this plays out: Year Team WARP Lost Playoff Result 2025 Houston Astros 12.44 Missed Playoffs 2024 Atlanta Braves 13.11 Made Playoffs 2023 New York Yankees 13.42 Missed Playoffs 2022 Minnesota Twins 9.601 Missed Playoffs 2021 New York Mets 14.43 Missed Playoffs 2020 Houston Astros 6.305 Made Playoffs* 2019 New York Yankees 17.98 Made Playoffs 2018 Cleveland Guardians 8.752 Made Playoffs There’s no clear cutoff; teams in the past have both survived and collapsed under similar injury loads. The good news? Injury-plagued teams can still make the postseason. The 2018 Guardians, 2019 Yankees, and 2024 Braves all managed to do it. But they had something the 2026 Blue Jays don’t: they were coming off 100+ win seasons. Their baseline was so high that even a significant drop still left them in contention. The Blue Jays don’t have as much luxury. Injuries alone don't determine a team's fate, but they do expose it. Teams with strong foundations and a high floor can survive them, but teams without those assets don’t have the same margin for error. The key for this team is just to try to do whatever they can to stay afloat until reinforcements arrive. Being three games below .500 with a -25 run differential, one of the worst in baseball early on, is what it is. But no one in the American League is running away from the pack. One good week, and the Blue Jays can be right back on top again. The Blue Jays are doing everything they can to make that happen. Just this past week, the team signed Patrick Corbin to reinforce the starting rotation. They’ve also made trades with the Giants and White Sox for Tyler Fitzgerald and Lenyn Sosa, respectively They’ve recalled Brandon Valenzuela, who has shown flashes of promise so far, and called up Eloy Jiménez, who had a two-hit game in his season debut. If the Blue Jays can get some impact from elsewhere on the roster and start putting some wins together, it may be the difference between this team fighting for a spot in October and being on the outside looking in. Whether they can do it won't just depend on getting healthy; it'll depend on whether or not the Blue Jays were good enough to weather this in the first place. For Eric Lauer and the rest of the Blue Jays, it's their turn to do the punching. They will keep grinding, they will keep going until the next man steps up, and if that does happen, then they get to do the sweetest punch of all, and that's punching their ticket into the postseason. View full article

Just some more "fun" RISP stats to share: - Blue Jays tOPS+ with RISP is 87, 3rd worst in baseball. - zero HR with RISP - 24 RBI with RISP 29th in baseball despite being 7th in ABs - .241 xWOBA with RISP 29th in baseball - 86.1 AV EV with RISP 30th in baseball

“This is not our brand of baseball.” That was manager John Schneider’s message after the Blue Jays were shut out by the Chicago White Sox on Sunday, a loss that capped off a series sweep and dropped the Blue Jays to a 4-5 record. It marked the first time the team had been below .500 since May 28, 2025. A 4-5 start (now 4-7)* isn't disastrous, but it feels underwhelming after three series against the A’s, Rockies, and White Sox, especially with the latter two teams having lost 100-plus games in 2025. The concern isn't necessarily the results; it's how they’ve gotten there. Injuries have played a role, and the roster has changed, but the Blue Jays simply don't look like the team we’ve come to expect. In 2025, the Blue Jays relied on their team chemistry, elite defense all around the diamond, and their ability to put the bat on the ball and put pressure on opponents' defenses to succeed. It's a formula that worked well, leading the team into the Fall Classic. A large part of the success belongs to hitting coach David Popkins and his staff. They helped spark a resurgence from George Springer, breakout performances from Addison Barger and Daulton Varsho, and meaningful offensive contributions from the back half of their roster. They also had the Blue Jays swinging harder in the second half. A report from Eno Sarris of The Athletic noted that every Blue Jay was swinging harder in the second half of the season (aside from Andrés Giménez) and that number carried over into the postseason. Elite contact ability, combined with the intent to swing hard at hittable pitches, drove the Blue Jays’ success in 2025. Fast forward to 2026, and that identity is starting to slip. Their contact rate is stable, but take a look at how their fast-swing rate compares between the second half of 2025 and where we are in 2026: Fast-Swing Rate 2025: 29.1% 2026: 25.8% The situation only gets worse when you look at what pitches they're swinging the bat at. As a team, the Blue Jays have been swinging too much at pitches out of the zone. Their out-of-zone swing rate (per SIS) has climbed from 33.2% in the second half of 2025 to 36.5% so far in 2026. It doesn't matter how hard you swing when you're swinging at pitchers' pitches. Every Blue Jay that has had extended playing time over the past three seasons has seen their chase rate rise in 2026. Regular small-sample caveats apply, but it's not an encouraging sign, especially when it's happening across the board. Defensively, this team should be better than it was in 2025. Gone is Bo Bichette, who, according to Baseball Savant, ranked in the 4th percentile in fielding run value last season. He’s been replaced by Giménez at shortstop, who ranked in the 86th percentile in fielding run value in 2025. Ernie Clement has taken over at second, and Varsho remains in center field. The Blue Jays have won the team Gold Glove award in two of the past three seasons, and the good news is, they can do it again! Statcast's outs above average and fielding run value both have the Blue Jays ranked among the top five in the league early on. The issue is that the team is still making its fair share of errors. Fielding percentage is a flawed stat in many ways because not all errors are created equal, yet it's still worth noting that the Blue Jays have posted a .978 fielding percentage, ranking 23rd in baseball. Take Tyler Heineman, for example. He's stepped in as the Blue Jays' catcher after Alejandro Kirk left a game with a thumb injury, and made a bad throw that helped the White Sox push across a run and hand the Blue Jays another loss. The very next day, it was more of the same; the Blue Jays were down a run late, and another bad throw allowed the White Sox to add some insurance runs. The Jays couldn't catch up. Speaking of catcher defense, the Blue Jays have had their issues throwing out baserunners. In 2025, they allowed 110 stolen bases, 16th-most in baseball, right in the middle of the pack. So far in 2026, Kirk has allowed 10 baserunners to steal, while Heineman has allowed three, and Valenzuela one. Those 14 stolen bases against are the second-highest in baseball so far. Errors will happen, and just because they've happened early doesn’t mean they’ll continue. Still, that's not how the Blue Jays were built to play, and in the early part of the season, it's been costing them games. Right now, they aren’t being beaten; they're beating themselves. The good news? It's April. A slow start isn't insurmountable, and one strong week can reset everything. But if the Blue Jays want to get back on track, it starts with rediscovering their identity, controlling the zone, and swinging with intent. If that returns, so will the wins, and the Blue Jays will be back to playing their brand of baseball Stats updated before games on April 7. View full article

Welcome to the big leagues, Spencer Miles. As far as major league debuts go, the Blue Jays have had some memorable ones. J.P. Arencibia hit two home runs in a four-hit performance, Davis Schneider launched one over the Green Monster during an electric opening series, and while Kazuma Okamoto's didn't have the same flair, he reached base twice, recorded his first major league hit, and scored the game-winning run. Miles' debut was different. He made the team out of camp as a Rule 5 pick from the Giants system, meaning the Blue Jays must keep him on the roster for the whole season or risk losing him back to San Francisco. The plan was to ease him into low-leverage situations, let him get his feet wet, and introduce him to life in the big leagues in small doses. Baseball doesn’t always care about your plan. Game two of the season, and the Blue Jays' bullpen was already under pressure. After Dylan Cease left in the sixth inning, Toronto cycled through six relievers to reach the ninth, where Alejandro Kirk hit a game-tying home run to send the game to extras. John Schneider was then looking for options for the top of the 10th. The options were slim. He could have let Louis Varland work another inning, but he was already pitching on back-to-back days. Alternatively, he could have turned to Jeff Hoffman, who had also pitched the previous day, but Schneider had indicated he wanted to avoid overusing Hoffman and would only use him in a save situation, leaving just one option remaining. Enter Spencer Miles, who had thrown just 14.2 innings of affiliated baseball since being drafted in 2022. Injuries had limited his time on the field, leaving him with very little professional experience to draw from. But at this point, the Jays were desperate. They needed a win, and Spencer Miles was the one tasked with getting the job done. The inning began with the automatic runner on second, so the pressure was immediate. His first test was no easy one: two-time All-Star and former batting champion Jeff McNeil. After a first-pitch curveball missed outside for ball one, Miles left a sinker over the plate that McNeil sent right back at him. From there, baseball instinct took over. Without hesitation, he charged forward and immediately ran at Jacob Wilson, catching him in a rundown for the first out. A tremendous display of instincts for a pitcher with so little game experience. The next batter was Max Muncy. Miles opened with a slider just off the plate, then came back with another that Kirk framed perfectly for a strike. He followed it with a 98.3 mph sinker for another called strike, and two pitches later, he finished Muncy with a front-door slider that started off the plate and caught the zone, which Muncy swung over the top of for his first big league strikeout. A four-pitch walk and a flyout to right later, and Miles was out of the inning. He had inherited the automatic runner on second base and ended the inning without allowing the runner to score. He did exactly what the team needed: he gave them a chance to win. Sure enough, the Blue Jays did just that. After a Kirk strikeout and an intentional walk to Daulton Varsho, Ernie Clement delivered a line drive to left-center field, securing the win and ultimately, Miles’ first big league victory. “I blacked out a little bit. It's surreal; you dream of this as a kid,” Miles said postgame. “For them to even put me in that situation, I think it's just surreal.” John Schneider has to be encouraged by what he’s seen from the 25-year-old rookie, who has now passed his first big league test. On the whole, Miles threw 16 pitches – eight of them sliders – and generated two whiffs on just four swings. His fastball touched 98.2 mph, and his early Stuff+ numbers were impressive, including a 145 mark on his slider. Take the small sample with a grain of salt, but for a Blue Jays bullpen with early question marks, continued contributions like this could prove extremely valuable. For what it's worth, through two games (prior to the finale on Sunday), Spencer Miles was leading the pitching staff in Win Probability Added: via FanGraphs Whether this turns out to be a brief blip or the start of something bigger, Spencer Miles has already had his big league moment and, more importantly, helped the Blue Jays win a game in the process. If this outing is any indication, it may not be the last time he’s trusted in a big spot. View full article

Lets go crazy, Eric Lauer has a Marco Estrada-esque outing and gets it done

Bold predictions are always a tricky exercise. What feels bold to one person might seem completely reasonable to another. Think back to last season. Predicting a career year for George Springer after a .674 OPS would have raised some eyebrows. Predicting a team that won just 74 games to go from worst-to-first and push a World Series to Game 7? That would have sounded even more unlikely. That's the beauty of baseball: We can analyze rosters, project breakouts, and map out every potential storyline, but something unexpected is always going to happen, especially during (or after) a 162-game season. For this exercise, we’ll use a definition inspired by Ben Clemens of FanGraphs: A bold prediction is something you know might not be likely to happen, but you believe has a better chance of happening than most people think. Rather than keeping all the fun to myself, I asked the Jays Centre staff to share their own bold predictions for the 2026 season. The results were a great mix, including some Blue Jays taking home end-of-season hardware, dominant pitching performances, and prospect breakouts. Let's dive in. Michael Coyle: Kevin Gausman and Dylan Cease both throw over 200 IP and strike out over 200 batters. We’ll start with a big one. The 200-inning threshold has decreased dramatically over the past few seasons, with just three pitchers reaching it in 2025. Chris Bassitt was the most recent Blue Jay to hit that number, doing so in 2023, and the last time the team had two pitchers do it in the same season was in 2014, when R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle each eclipsed that mark. Both Gausman and Cease have come close to these numbers in the past, but neither has quite gotten there. In order for this to come true, both pitchers will need to be healthy all season and maintain at least one strikeout per inning; the latter is something that Gausman hasn’t quite done the past two seasons. It's bold for a reason, but the Blue Jays' pitching staff would be in great shape if this one comes true. Matthew Creally: Brendon Little will have a sub-2.50 ERA. Little faded down the stretch last season to the point where he was barely used in the World Series; he was likely overworked and, frankly, had some of the worst command/control in the league. But turning the page to 2026, he’s shown a new four-seamer in camp (touching as high as 98.1 mph), and the added depth in the bullpen will take some pressure off him. It's a bet on the stuff, which is probably a bit underrated. If he can make an improvement to his command, then he can shake off the rough postseason and be a true anchor out of the bullpen. Mike LeSage: Kevin Gausman will finish second in Cy Young voting. Most predictions would have a player ultimately winning the Cy Young Award, but predicting a second-place finish feels bolder in a way. Gausman has come close before. Back in 2023, he led the AL in strikeouts and finished third in the Cy Young race, behind Gerrit Cole and Sonny Gray. Since then, the strikeout numbers have dipped slightly, but he’s remained highly effective. For this to happen, Gausman will need to rediscover that strikeout form while continuing his run of durability as he enters his age-35 season. He’ll also need a bit of luck, with either Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, or any of the other elite AL arms taking a step back. If there’s anyone who can thread that needle, Kevin Gausman is as good a pick as any. Bryan Jaeger: Daulton Varsho finishes top three in AL MVP voting. Varsho has changed his approach at the plate this spring, and it's paying off tremendously. He is letting the ball travel deeper and hitting the ball to all parts of the field. Letting the pitch travel more has also helped his plate vision. He's reduced his strikeouts from 28.4% last season to 7.4% this spring. Take spring training stats with a grain of salt, but it looks like he’s been making some cognitive changes with his approach. The center fielder has an astounding 1.246 OPS and .440 ISO over 54 plate appearances with five home runs, 12 runs, and 14 knocked in. He's doing all this while maintaining his ability to hit the ball hard. Varsho's 54.3 hard-hit% would be a career-high. Pair all this with his elite center field defence and smart baserunning, and you don’t have to squint too hard to see it all come together. The key to making this prediction come true is if he can stay healthy, which is a massive ask, but there is a real path to this becoming a reality. Simon Li: Austin Cates jumps into the top 15 in the Blue Jays system. Currently, Cates isn't ranked among Jays Centre's top 20 prospects, and he was outside of FanGraphs' top 40 Blue Jays prospects as well, but there is lots to like about the 22-year-old right-hander. If you look at the pitch characteristics, he gets elite ride on the fastball (21+ inches of induced vertical break) and pairs it with a devastating splitter, a pitch the Blue Jays have used effectively over the past few seasons. He’ll still need to sharpen up the breaking ball, but if he can make progress with that offering, then he’s got a legitimate three-pitch mix. Cates got the start in the Jay's Spring Breakout game this year and sat at 93 mph after showing increased velocity from the year prior. He’s a name to watch on the prospect side going forward. Sam Charles: The Blue Jays will not win more than 80 games. Not every bold prediction has to be optimistic. Sometimes, saying the unpopular answer may be the right one, all things considered. You don’t have to look too hard to see how this could be possible. The Blue Jays' lineup isn't certain to just mash. Kazuma Okamoto could struggle in his first year against MLB pitching, Alejandro Kirk and George Springer could revert to their 2023/2024 stat lines, and the surprise performances from Nathan Lukes, Tyler Heineman, and Myles Straw could easily disappear. As always, injuries would be a factor here, too. The pitching staff has lots of question marks as well. Three potential starters are already on the injured list. Dylan Cease has all the tools in the world but has had ERAs north of 4.50 in two of the last three seasons. It could happen again. The bullpen has several question marks, and on the whole, the Blue Jays' pitchers are getting old; only Trey Yesavage and Mason Fluharty are currently projected to be on the roster and under 25. Pair that with an AL East that got significantly better in the offseason, and one team is going to disappoint – and there is a chance it could be the Blue Jays. Edward Eng: Jeff Hoffman figures out the home run issues and becomes the shutdown closer the Blue Jays need. One of the many question marks surrounding the Blue Jays in 2026 will be Jeff Hoffman's performance. In 2025, he had stretches of dominance and stretches where he struggled with consistency. Consistency in the closer spot is paramount, and the Jays weren’t always getting that last season. The home runs were always an issue; his 15 allowed were second in baseball by a reliever, and the HR/FB ratio of 20% was his worst since he was a starting pitcher in Coors Field. If he’s able to figure out how to keep the ball in the ballpark, then there is enough dominance in the arm that he can be a lock-down closer. That is going to be important if the Jays wish to remain on top of the division. Leo Morgenstern: Two Blue Jays will make their first all star game this summer. Dylan Cease (somehow) has never made an All-Star Game and seems to be a likely candidate to get there this summer, but what makes this bold is finding another one. Daulton Varsho is a prime candidate to get to the Midsummer Classic for the first time, but there is a path where Kazuma Okamoto, Addison Barger, Trey Yesavage, Cody Ponce, or Louis Varland end up there as well. Last season, the Blue Jays sent Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk to the All-Star Game, and with John Schneider set to manage the AL team in Philadelphia this year, having some extra Blue Jays on the roster is never a bad thing. Owen Hill: José Berríos makes more starts than Max Scherzer. This is a prediction about two things: Berríos' durability and Scherzer showing his age. This prediction is certainly bold, as right now, Berríos isn't throwing and is dealing with elbow inflammation that will have him start the season on the IL. For his career, Berríos has been a model of consistency, even after an uneven 2025 season; his ability to log innings has been a strength. Scherzer, on the other hand, has looked sharp in camp and is currently locked into the starting rotation, but there are always going to be durability concerns that come with a pitcher in his forties. While the upside remains, predicting a full, healthy season may be optimistic. The Blue Jays are almost certain to use more than five starters over the course of the year, and the rotation in September is rarely the same as it is in March. This prediction comes down to trusting that Berríos will be available more often in the long run, even though that is not the case at the moment. Bob Ritchie: Andrés Giménez steals 25+ bases and has a wRC+ above 114. Both these numbers are something Giménez has accomplished before, but never in the same year. He reached the 25 stolen base mark in 2023 and 2024, and hit the wRC+ number in his All-Star 2022 campaign, but that feels like it's well in the rearview mirror. However, these numbers aren’t necessarily out of reach. The stolen bases may be the hardest number to reach, as no Blue Jay even reached 20 last season, but Giménez has done it before and will be locked in as the everyday starting shortstop, so he could approach this number once again. If he does reach these numbers, he’ll join a list that in 2025 would have included names like Juan Soto, Corbin Carroll, and José Ramírez. Jesse Burrill: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will set the record for the hardest hit ball in the Statcast era Personally, I have been rooting for this record for a long time. The current mark was set by Oneil Cruz just last season at 122.9 mph. Vladimir Guerrero Jr has come close before, with his best being 120.4 mph, also recorded last year. Here’s why it could happen: Guerrero is entering his age-27 season, which is historically right in the heart of a player's prime. Pair that with the fact that several Blue Jays made noticeable improvements in bat speed during the second half of last season, and you’ve got a recipe for some serious ferocious exit velocities. If everything clicks, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Guerrero claim the top spot. Now, will any of these predictions actually come true? Probably not, but baseball has never been predictable. Over 162 games, the unexpected is inevitable, but that’s what makes it fun, and all that fun starts tonight at Rogers Centre. View full article

Jays Centre is counting down the top 50 Blue Jays in franchise history. Check out prior entries in the series here: Introduction 50 to 46 45 to 41 40 to 36 As we continue our countdown of the top 50 players in Blue Jays franchise history, spots 35 to 31 feature a mix of players from every era: a power bat from the early years, a fiery pitcher from the 2010s, and even an active player still climbing the franchise leaderboards. No. 35: Willie Upshaw First base 1978, 1980-1987 Blue Jays Career Stats: .265/.336/.426, 112 HR, 478 RBI, 50 SB Willie Upshaw may be the most underrated player from those early 1980s Blue Jays teams. Originally drafted by the New York Yankees in 1975, Upshaw joined the Blue Jays in the 1977 Rule 5 draft, one of two players the club selected that day. Although his rookie season was underwhelming (.602 OPS), he became the Blue Jays' regular first baseman by 1982. From there, Upshaw produced the best stretch of his career from 1983-85. In that three-year span, he averaged a .287/.354/.477 line with 20 home runs and 84 RBI. His best season came in 1983, when he slugged 27 home runs and became the first player in franchise history to reach 100 RBI in a season. He was a key part of the Blue Jays' first AL East title in 1985. Upshaw battled with injuries and a slight decline through the ‘86 and ‘87 seasons, and with first base prospects Fred McGriff and Cecil Fielder in the wings, he was traded to Cleveland, ending his tenure with the club. Off the field, Upshaw was widely respected within the organization. After he was traded to Cleveland, Pat Gillick stated, “He’s a real class guy. He gave great service to the club.” Gillick even mentioned Upshaw directly in his Hall of Fame speech, telling a story of what it was like drafting him. Post-playing career, Upshaw took up coaching and, most famously, served as the Giants' first base coach in 2007 when Barry Bonds hit home run No. 756, breaking the all-time record. Upshaw's Blue Jays career: Games played - 8th (1,115)* Hits - 11th (982) Home runs - 21st (112) RBI - 13th (478) Triples - 4th (42) Intentional bases on balls - 4th (46) *Upshaw and Rance Mulliniks both finished with exactly 1,115 games played, tied for eighth place in franchise history No. 34: Marcus Stroman Starting pitcher 2014-2019 Accolades: All-Star, Gold Glove Blue Jays Career Stats: 789.2 IP, 47-45 3.76 ERA There may not have been a more unique pitcher in Blue Jays history than Marcus Stroman. Stroman was drafted by the Blue Jays in the first round of the 2012 draft and quickly became one of the prized prospects in the system. He made his major league debut in relief on May 4, 2014, and by the end of the month, he was inserted into the rotation. Stroman’s strong rookie year set the stage for 2015, as he was going to be a key part of an emerging Blue Jays rotation. But during spring training of that year, while fielding a bunt in practice, he heard a “pop” in his knee and tore his ACL. Initial reports suggested that his 2015 season was over. Stroman didn’t let that stop him; he’s always had a chip on his shoulder, saying things like “heart doesn’t measure height” as a motivational tool for people who thought he couldn’t be good because he stood 5-foot-7. He used that chip to fuel a quicker-than-expected recovery from his injury and, surprisingly, returned to the mound that September. His return helped fuel a division title in 2015, and the Blue Jays reached the ALCS in back-to-back seasons. As the Blue Jays were coming off their run of success, Stroman was traded to the Mets at the trade deadline in 2019. After spending time with the Mets, Cubs, and Yankees, he is still on the lookout for his next team. Off the field, Stroman built a strong personal brand. He had “height doesn't measure heart,” or HDMH, trademarked, and has partnered with Nike, Biosteel, and Rogers to create apparel featuring his logo. He also appeared in music videos alongside his friend and former Duke teammate Mike Stud. Marcus Stroman was many things, but for the mid-2010s Blue Jays, he was a key part of the effort, and you will still see many Stroman jerseys around the park today. Stroman's Blue Jays career: Innings pitched - 15th (789.2) ERA - 10th (3.76) Wins - 17th (47) Strikeouts - 15th (635) FIP - 5th (3.60) No. 33: Alejandro Kirk Catcher 2020-present Accolades: Two-time All-Star, Silver Slugger Blue Jays Career Stats: .268/.345/.398, 51 HR, 263 RBI Alejandro Kirk is still building his resume and is quietly shaping up to be one of the best catchers in franchise history. Kirk was originally signed as an international free agent at the age of 17. After spending his first three seasons at various stops in the minor leagues, he made his MLB debut in 2020. He initially joined the taxi squad during the shortened season, but he made his debut on September 12, getting his first major league hit that same day. Kirk has relied on his immense bat-to-ball skills at the plate, and in 2022, he put together his best season, posting a .786 OPS and earning an All-Star selection and a Silver Slugger Award. After two subpar years with the bat, Kirk rebounded in 2025, set a career-high in home runs (15), and was a key part of the Blue Jays' World Series run, though the season ended with him grounding into a double play in the 11th inning of Game 7. The Blue Jays value Kirk so much that they gave him a five-year extension at the start of 2025. By the time Kirk’s career is over, he’s likely going to rank much higher on this list, as he is entering his age-27 season. An argument could be made that the best years of his career are still to come. Off the field, Kirk and his wife, Sofia, welcomed their daughter into the world in 2023. Kirk's Blue Jays career: Games played - 41st (564) Hits - 47th (489) Home runs - 50th (51) RBI - 38th (263) No. 32: Rance Mulliniks Third base 1982-1992 Accolades: World Series Champion Blue Jays Career Stats: .280/.365/.407, 73 HR, 435 RBI If there was ever an underappreciated Blue Jay from the era of the team's first division title and first World Series championship, there's a good case to be made that it was Rance Mulliniks. Mulliniks joined the Blue Jays in a trade with the Kansas City Royals in 1982 and became part of a third base platoon with Garth Iorg. Over the next six seasons, Mulliniks was the model of consistency: His OPS+ was between 125 and 127 in four of those seasons, and even the other two years (103 and 143) weren’t far off that level of production. Mulliniks was the type of player who might be even more appreciated in today's game, where versatility and on-base ability are highly valued. Pair that with the ability to play multiple positions, and it's exactly the type of player that fans and managers love to have on their team. Mulliniks also made his mark in the 1985 postseason, going 4-for-11 with a home run in Game 3 of the ALCS against two-time Cy-Young winner Bret Saberhagen. Mulliniks battled injuries and inconsistencies in the final stretch of his career and retired after the 1992 season, going out as a World Series champion. Off the field, Mulliniks is still very much in the Blue Jays world. He served as part of the Rogers Sportsnet broadcast team from 2005 to 2010 and still appears on Blue Jays podcasts from time to time to discuss the team. He now offers partial coaching and public speaking, which you can book online through his personal website. Mulliniks's Blue Jays career: Games played - 8th (1,115)* Hits - 21st (853) Home runs - 36th (68) RBI - 20th (389) WPA - 10th (8.1) Bases on balls - 8th (416) *Upshaw and Mulliniks both finished with exactly 1,115 games played, tied for eighth place in franchise history No. 31: Shannon Stewart Outfield 1995-2003, 2008 Blue Jays Career Stats: .298/.360/.440, 115 HR, 580 RBI, 196 SB A true all-around player, who combined batting average, defence and speed, Shannon Stewart was a staple for the late '90s/early 2000s Blue Jays. Stewart was one of those players whose value you didn't fully appreciate until you watched him every day. Using his speed and contact skills, he was a mainstay at the top of the Blue Jays' order for several years. From 1998-2003, he averaged .305/.370/.452 with 13 home runs and 25 stolen bases per year. In 2001, he became just the fourth Blue Jay to record 200+ hits in a season, and he remains one of only five to accomplish the feat. His best performance came in that ‘03 campaign, when he posted an .823 OPS and finished fourth in AL MVP voting. Stewart has always been a personal favourite of mine, as he hit the first big league home run I ever remember seeing in person, which holds a special place in every baseball fan's heart. After his original stint with the Blue Jays, he spent some time with the Twins and Athletics. He returned to the Blue Jays as a 34-year-old and got into 52 games before calling it a career. Post-playing career, he has stayed out of the public eye, but according to his Instagram page, he’s a husband and father of three kids, which likely keeps him plenty busy these days. While Stewart was a steady presence at the top of the lineup during the late 1990s and early 2000’s, the next group in our countdown will feature players whose peaks left an even bigger imprint on franchise history. Stewart's Blue Jays career: Games played - 19th (907) Hits - 7th (1082) Home runs - 32nd (74) RBI - 22nd (370) Batting average - 4th (.298) Doubles - 6th (222) Stolen bases - 5th (166) View full article

Spring training can feel sluggish at times. The initial buzz of pitchers and catchers reporting is long gone, and the euphoric high of finally getting game action has faded. Opening Day is still more than two weeks away. If spring training had its own version of the regular season's “dog days,” we’d probably be in them by now. The good news is that competitive baseball is still on TV. With the World Baseball Classic underway (go Team Canada!), and with 13 players from the Blue Jays organization away representing their countries, opportunities have opened for players still in Blue Jays camp who normally wouldn’t receive an extended look. As always, the usual spring training caveats apply. Players might be experimenting with new mechanics or just simply focused on preparation rather than results. It's almost impossible to learn much from one game or one week of baseball games, and that's especially true in March. Still, strong performances and struggles are worth noting. Last week, we noted some observations from the first week of spring, and now that the sample has grown a little, it's time for another check-in. One young infielder has been impossible to ignore, while a familiar face on the roster is still searching for his first real swing of the spring. Stats updated prior to split-squad games on March 8. Who's Hot? Max Scherzer: Early velocity suggests the veteran might have more in the tank than expected. Don’t look now, but he’s doing it again. Scherzer made his spring debut for the Blue Jays on Saturday and looked like he was already in midseason form. He faced 12 batters, retired 11, and the only runner to reach base was promptly erased on a double play. The key number in this start: 95.6 mph. That was the velocity of a fastball he threw in the first inning, and it's a mark he didn’t reach at all in the spring of 2025. It’s only one outing, but he passed his first test, as the future Hall of Famer prepares for his 19th big league season Josh Kasevich: The young prospect has been turning heads in all aspects of the game. Every spring training, there is one player who forces you to take notice. That player for the Blue Jays has to be Josh Kasevich. Kasevich (Jays Centre's No. 11 prospect) has been impressive in all aspects of the game. At the plate, he’s hitting .389 with a .450 on-base percentage and has yet to strike out. He’s showing his skills on the basepaths with two stolen bases, tied for the team lead this spring. He’s flashed the leather as well, including a diving stop up the middle against the Phillies on Saturday. While he’s currently not on the 40-man roster, he’s checked every box this spring, and if the Blue Jays were strictly building their best 26-man roster based on spring performance, Kasevich would have a compelling case. Opening Day is still a long shot, but his odds of making an appearance with the team this summer have increased dramatically with his performance this spring. Brendon Little: New pitches and big velocity are turning heads early in camp. The last time we saw Brendon Little on a major stage, he allowed Freddie Freeman’s walk-off home run in the 18th inning of Game 3 of the World Series. Naturally, there were questions about what Little might look like coming into 2026. So far this spring, the answer has been encouraging. He has yet to allow a hit and has struck out 46.2% of the batters he’s faced. It also appears he’s expanded his arsenal, adding a slider and a four-seam fastball that touched 98.1 mph to go along with his sinker and knuckle curve. Command has always been the question with Little, but early results suggest the wipeout stuff is still very much there. Who’s Not? Gage Stanifer: The results haven’t been pretty, but the sample size is tiny. Stanifer (Jays Centre'S #6 prospect) was exceptional in 2025, posting a 2.86 ERA and 13.17 K/9 in 110 minor league innings. This spring provided an early look at the 22-year-old, but the results have been rough so far. He’s recorded just five outs and carries a 16.20 ERA. Command has been the main issue, with two walks and one hit batter. Stanifer’s ceiling remains sky-high, but this spring has also highlighted some of the development areas he’ll need to address this season. Arjun Nimmala: The tools remain exciting, but the bat hasn’t gotten going yet. Nimmala (Jays Centre'S #3 prospect) entered his second big league camp with plenty of attention. Unfortunately, the first handful of games haven’t gone the way he would have hoped. After a 2025 season that featured flashes of high-end talent mixed with extended slumps, the bat hasn't heated up this spring. In 16 plate appearances (prior to his game on Sunday), he had just two hits and seven strikeouts. The tools are still very obvious; he remains a top-100 prospect for a reason. Yet, his development is still very much in progress. Davis Schneider: One of the quietest cold streaks in camp so far. It hasn’t been much discussed, but Davis Schneider is having a rough spring. His 22 plate appearances are tied for second on the team, but he has just one hit, a single, to show for it. Schneider's roster spot appears relatively safe as a right-handed option who gets in against left-handed pitching, but with Eloy Jiménez and Kasevich having good spring trainings of their own and making their own cases for roster spots, it's worth keeping an eye on how Schneider finishes camp. In spring, these things can change quickly; a two-home run day by Schneider or Nimmala changes the narrative rapidly, and there is still plenty of time for players to get hot. We will see how things look in a week's time, or more importantly, by Opening Day. View full article

Today was a great day for baseball. To be fair, every day is a great day for baseball, but Tuesday afternoon in Dunedin felt different. Blue Jays spring training was well underway, but this time it wasn’t just “root, root, root for the home team.” Team Canada was in town for the first of their two exhibition games ahead of the World Baseball Classic, with their tournament opener set for Saturday, March 7, at 11 a.m. against Colombia. There was plenty of Blue Jays blue in the crowd, and just as much red and white, but this wasn’t a case of two separate fan bases showing up to watch a game; this was an irregularity. Fans at the ballpark were cheering for both teams. Former Blue Jay and long-time manager of Team Canada, Ernie Whitt, led his team onto the field with numerous fellow former MLB players and Team Canada alumni on the coaching staff. Most notable was Russell Martin, who spent four seasons with the Blue Jays from 2015 to 2018. He was spotted pregame giving handshakes and hugs to several players on the Blue Jays bench with a massive smile on his face. Once he took his spot in the first base coach's box, it was game on. Team Canada sent out a lineup full of MLB players, led by captain Josh Naylor, paired with his younger brother Bo, and full of young but talented players, all with MLB experience. Their first task wasn’t going to be easy, as the Blue Jays handed the ball to Kevin Gausman, the two-time All-Star and 13-year MLB veteran. Canada went quietly in the first against Gausman, who looked sharp in his second start of the spring. Tyler Black flew out to begin the game, and aside from a Josh Naylor walk, that's all Canada could muster in the top of the first. Toeing the rubber for Team Canada was the left-handed throwing Logan Allen. He’s a veteran of five MLB seasons with four teams and has recently pitched in Korea for the NC Dinos. He struggled with his command in this one. After a hard lineout from George Springer, he walked Nathan Lukes, which was followed by a Daulton Varsho infield single. Addison Barger walked, and two batters later, Jesús Sánchez smoked a two-run single, and Canada found themselves down early. After Gausman struck out two and allowed just a soft single to Otto Lopez in the top half of the second, things really unravelled in the bottom of the frame. After three straight walks to start the inning, Allen’s day was done. Cambridge, Ontario’s Noah Skirrow entered in relief, but by the time he escaped the inning, the damage had been done, and Canada was losing 7-0. Or, depending on your allegiance, the Blue Jays led 7-0. But Canadians don’t just quit, and neither does Team Canada. From there, things got better. Skirrow came back out for the third and struck out the side, including Springer. The next three pitchers, Adam Macko (who was facing his own teammates), Eric Cerantola and Indigo Diaz combined to pitch three innings while allowing just one hit. It showcased one of Team Canada's strengths: bullpen depth. Maybe that was the change of momentum Canada needed, as then the bats woke up. In the top of the sixth, Longueuil, QC native Abraham Toro smoked a single to centerfield. Then, Mississauga, ON native Josh Naylor ripped an even harder single (110.4 EV) to right field, and Team Canada had runners on the corners with no out. After the elder Naylor stole second, the national team was able to drive both runners in on a Tyler O’Neill sacrifice fly and an Owen Caissie RBI single. Just like that, the score was 7-2, and suddenly, there was life. Canada added a third run in the seventh via a Jared Young sac fly, and then in the eighth, the bats exploded off of Jays Centre's #6 prospect Gage Stanifer. London, ON, native Jacob Robson led off the inning with an opposite-field home run, which started a run of four straight hitters reaching base, capped off by Athletics center fielder and Toronto native Denzel Clarke, who ripped a double. Black then proceeded to hit a sacrifice fly, and just like that, Canada had erased a seven-run deficit to tie things at 7-7. Team Canada was alive. The lead was short-lived, as in the bottom half, Canadian right-hander Brock Dykxhoorn gave up a three-run home run to Blue Jays first baseman Riley Tirotta. That proved to be the difference in the ballgame, as the Blue Jays defeated Team Canada 10-7. Overall, it was a good start for Team Canada, as they did what they set out to do. The offence showed life, scoring seven runs and recording three sacrifice flies, a sign of unselfish situational baseball, and they actually outhit the Blue Jays 10 to eight. Canada still has work to do. Allen’s five walks won’t win many baseball games, and the two defensive errors Canada made will need to be cleaned up if this group hopes to advance to the knockout round for the first time in tournament history. Team Canada will get another warm-up game against the Phillies at 1:05 p.m. this afternoon before their tournament opens on Saturday against Colombia at 11 am ET. Now, allegiances are split no longer. There's no more cheering for both teams – it’s all red and white from here on out. Ahead of a short tournament where anything can happen, Canada showed it has the talent to make things interesting, and if the breaks go their way, there’s a real opportunity to do something this program has never done before. From the Notebook Adam Macko (Stony Plain, AB) was in a precarious position as he got to pitch against his own team. Macko has pitched three scoreless innings for the Blue Jays so far this spring, and on Tuesday, he came in to face a pocket of three lefties. After a single to Nathan Lukes, he got Daulton Varsho to hit into a double play and Addison Barger to ground out to get out of the inning. Blue Jays prospect Je’Von Ward ended up playing for Team Canada in this game. Seems like the Blue Jays were lending a helping hand to the national team, since Ward is from Cerritos, California. He did play for the Vancouver Canadians this past season, and just for one day, he was an honorary Canadian. He went 0-for-2 with a strikeout. Josh Naylor not only stole a base, but he also had the two hardest-hit baseballs in the game: a 110.4-mph single in the sixth and a 108.6-mph double play ball in the third. Hitting coach Justin Morneau revealed that Team Canada is planning on bringing some mini-sticks to Puerto Rico so they can play during any downtime at the WBC. View full article

On Saturday afternoon, I found myself in an all-too-familiar situation: genuinely excited to watch TV. It wasn’t reruns of Parks and Rec or Sportsnet’s Misplays of the Month. It was Blue Jays baseball. And for a moment, it was pure euphoria. It felt like I was sitting on a baseball-shaped cloud, with the voices of Ben Shulman and Madison Shipman ushering in another season. Once the first pitch was thrown, my baseball brain was back. I started watching the radar gun after every pitch, tracking Eric Lauer's pitch mix, and watching Alejandro Kirk frame pitches like the maestro he is. In the bottom of the first, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. stepped in for his first professional at-bat since Game 7 of the World Series. He looked locked in immediately. He took a Bryse Wilson cutter inside for ball one. Wilson came back with a curveball that just missed the outside edge, a pitch close enough that Phillies catcher Rafael Marchan challenged via the ABS system. Vlad won. It was ball two. That's when Shulman said this: “Part of Guerrero’s success has been this, he just is not going to expand, he’s going to make you come after him.” When the plate appearance ended, Vlad had worked a five-pitch walk. He took four balls out of the zone, and took a healthy cut at the only one he got in the zone and fouled it back: It’s exactly the type of approach you want to see from any player, but especially Vlad. Swing at the pitches you can do damage with, and take the ones you can't. I got curious and wanted to look deeper into what Guerrero’s approach at the plate looked like under new hitting coach David Popkins. After doing some digging, I found it was still phenomenal, but different. Let me explain. My main takeaway was that Vladdy was swinging less often than ever before: What's more fascinating, though, is that swinging less didn't dramatically change his results. From 2019-2024, he swung at 48.5% of the pitches he saw and produced a .367 wOBA. In 2025, he swung at a career-low 42.2% of the time and posted a .366 wOBA. On the surface, nothing changed. The production was nearly identical. But the way he got there was different. First things first, it's plate discipline that matters. Swinging less is good, as long as you’re swinging less at pitches out of the zone, but swinging less at the ones you should be swinging at can be a problem. To evaluate swing decisions, I like to use Baseball Prospectus’ SEAGER metric (named after Corey Seager). It measures the value of a hitter's decision to swing or take based on count and pitch location. It rewards hitters who attack pitches they can do damage with and who lay off the unhittable ones. Guerrero's career SEAGER is 22.4, and in 2025, it dipped slightly to 20.4. The dip wasn’t about chasing more. It was about attacking less. In 2024, Vlad punished pitches in the heart of the zone. In 2025, he let more of those go by. When you pass on pitches you can drive, even elite hitters like Guerrero are leaving production on the table: Compare this to his wOBA per zone from 2024 and 2025: Now we can dive even deeper into his 2025 season and find more information. Here is a chart that shows Guerrero's Swing% and wOBA over the 2025 season: The data shows something fascinating: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. actually does more damage when he swings less. This doesn’t mean he needs to become more passive. It doesn't mean taking more strikes just for the sake of it. Passivity can be dangerous. Once pitchers learn that you’re unlikely to swing, they attack the zone and count leverage moves in their favor. So, for Vlad, it's not about passivity. It’s about eliminating the swings that don’t lead to damage. When he trims his swing decisions, he avoids weak contact and forces pitchers back into the zone. And when pitchers are forced into the zone against him, he attacks. When he attacks, he’s special. October was another sign of this philosophy. His Swing% dropped to 42.9%, and the wOBA rose to a stunning .517, showing that when Guerrero was swinging less, the damage was coming with him. It nearly led to a World Series banner being hung in Toronto. There’s more to it than just swinging. Vlad, like many others on the roster, was swinging harder than ever before, especially when he was ahead in the count. So, what does this mean entering 2026? Well, it seems like it's going to be more of the same. On MLB Network's "30 Clubs, 30 Camps," Guerrero explained his shift in philosophy: “In the season, if I see a man on second and no outs, I try to hit the ball the other way, and now [the Blue Jays] told me let's go to home plate and do damage, and that’s what I do this spring training… they tell me to bring him in, so I bring him in.” That sounds like a hitter who learned something in October. With Bo Bichette gone, there's no more debate. This is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s team now, and manager John Schneider has the utmost confidence in his superstar, saying, “[Bichette's departure] allows Vlad to have a louder voice, and to understand this has been his team and will always be his team.” Guerrero hit just 23 home runs last season, but if he can maintain the changes he made into the postseason and the selective, damage-first version of Vlad carries into 2026, then the 48 home runs he hit in his MVP-caliber 2021 season don't seem out of reach. And that sounds much more like must-watch television than any Parks and Rec rerun could ever be. View full article