Offseason Roster Thread 2025-26

[Laika]

19 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Schneider has 500 PAs against righties.  How do you regress them?  Using the league average against righties?  I understand like if he had 30 at bats against righties and went 12 for 30 with 4 homers... You wouldn't believe it, and you'd just take his career stats.  But if we are already taking his career stats what else is there to average in?

500 PAs against righties, 300 PAs against lefties.  Pretty even.  Slightly above average guy  against both.  I guess maybe not enough at bats and you adjust based on long term general trend and assume his even platoon splits actually would be unbalanced (better against lefties worse against righties) if he had a 12 trillion at bats in a simulation?  

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/estimating-hitter-platoon-skill/

[Terminator]

48 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

No need for any statistical adjustments here.  Even if the true wRC+ values after regression are 90 for Ernie and 110 for Schneider, the difference is significant.  It's a skill thing, Schneider is a much better bat against RHP.

Ernie murdered LHP in 2025, btw.

Jim, take a breath buddy. 

• You’re starting from the wrong baselines (their projections differ by only 5 percent).
• You don't understand regression and how to apply it (no idea where you get the 90-110 numbers from, read the article Laika posted).
• You are ignoring all extrinsic factors (like Davis' numbers being inflated against RHP because the team is very careful in how they deploy him).
• And you’re just making things up (“it’s a skill thing”).

To correct each of your false points I’d have to write a full Fangraphs article, but if you just reflect on the bullet points above you’ll get the gist.

 

 

[Sasky05]

7 hours ago, JaysForever said:

Now that we've discussed all the positions that Ernie can play. What about Ketal Marte? He started in MLB at SS, now plays 2B but has also featured at CF for a lot of games.

 

I always assumed he would be a Bo replacement. But in some unlikely scenario where they sign Bo and Trade for Marte, where does Marte play?

I think you hit the nail on the head. It's extremely unlikely they trade for Marte and sign Bo. One or the other, they don't do both.

[thatoneguy]

4 hours ago, Jimcanuck said:

No need for any statistical adjustments here.  Even if the true wRC+ values after regression are 90 for Ernie and 110 for Schneider, the difference is significant.  It's a skill thing, Schneider is a much better bat against RHP.

Ernie murdered LHP in 2025, btw.

This is one of the most Dunning-Kruger posts I've ever seen here.

[jmomcc]

Marte would be an extremely expensive in prospects if his projection is real. His contract is cheap and a ton of it is deferred. Back of the envelope it looks like 80-100m surplus value. 

To give an idea of what that means for prospects, in 2018 dollars (when fangraphs wrote about this) a 50fv position player was worth 28m and a 50fv pitching prospect 21m. Let's increase those by 20% for inflation to 34m and 25m. So you'd need three 50fv hitters or 4 50fv pitchers to make a fair deal.

[L54]

I’d give up any 3 prospects in the system for Marte and then sign Tucker and a reliever 

[jmomcc]

46 minutes ago, L54 said:

I’d give up any 3 prospects in the system for Marte and then sign Tucker and a reliever 

I mean three isn't really enough unless one of them is yesavage, 

Something like Nimmala, King, Stanifer, Tieddeman maybe if they think they are all 50fv. 

Maybe something like nimmala, parker, King, stanifer

[max silver]

1 hour ago, jmomcc said:

Marte would be an extremely expensive in prospects if his projection is real. His contract is cheap and a ton of it is deferred. Back of the envelope it looks like 80-100m surplus value. 

To give an idea of what that means for prospects, in 2018 dollars (when fangraphs wrote about this) a 50fv position player was worth 28m and a 50fv pitching prospect 21m. Let's increase those by 20% for inflation to 34m and 25m. So you'd need three 50fv hitters or 4 50fv pitchers to make a fair deal.

Baseball Trade Values assigns $60 million surplus value to Marte which is far from insurmountable for the Blue Jays. I think the stumbling block could arise if the Diamondbacks were looking for close to major league ready talent as most of the Blue Jays better prospects are in the low minors at this point.

[Jimcanuck]

5 hours ago, Terminator said:

Jim, take a breath buddy. 

• You’re starting from the wrong baselines (their projections differ by only 5 percent).
• You don't understand regression and how to apply it (no idea where you get the 90-110 numbers from, read the article Laika posted).
• You are ignoring all extrinsic factors (like Davis' numbers being inflated against RHP because the team is very careful in how they deploy him).
• And you’re just making things up (“it’s a skill thing”).

To correct each of your false points I’d have to write a full Fangraphs article, but if you just reflect on the bullet points above you’ll get the gist.

 

 

Go ahead and apply regression.  I understand stats very well and regression is going to make a relatively minor impact on the numbers.  That's where 90, 110 comes from.

Go ahead, crunch the numbers, prove me right. Thank you.

[Jimcanuck]

1 hour ago, thatoneguy said:

This is one of the most Dunning-Kruger posts I've ever seen here.

Hah, a know nothing throwing out a little cliche.

I'll have you know, in an engineering firm with over 2000 staff, I was the highest paid engineer for almost 10 years.  I have more knowledge in my pinky finger than you do.

[Pendleton]

15 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

Hah, a know nothing throwing out a little cliche.

I'll have you know, in an engineering firm with over 2000 staff, I was the highest paid engineer for almost 10 years.  I have more knowledge in my pinky finger than you do.

 

I think you're incredibly sharp for your age Jim

[L54]

1 hour ago, jmomcc said:

I mean three isn't really enough unless one of them is yesavage, 

Something like Nimmala, King, Stanifer, Tieddeman maybe if they think they are all 50fv. 

Maybe something like nimmala, parker, King, stanifer

I just mean pick your favourite three. Whatever three you want 

maybe it’s not enough but they’re not getting 100M of surplus value from any team. Ketel Marte won’t fetch four top 100 prospects Im confident in saying that 

[Spanky__99]

3 hours ago, jmomcc said:

I mean three isn't really enough unless one of them is yesavage, 

Something like Nimmala, King, Stanifer, Tieddeman maybe if they think they are all 50fv. 

Maybe something like nimmala, parker, King, stanifer

Baseball America has the Jays with 6 players at 60FV, 2 at 55FV and 1 50FV in their top 10, just sayin'. You just named off 3 60's and a 55, that's too much I believe.

[Spanky__99]

3 hours ago, Pendleton said:

 

I think you're incredibly sharp for your age Jim

Jimmyc the Bill James of concrete... 😜

[Sasky05]

3 hours ago, Jimcanuck said:

Hah, a know nothing throwing out a little cliche.

I'll have you know, in an engineering firm with over 2000 staff, I was the highest paid engineer for almost 10 years.  I have more knowledge in my pinky finger than you do.

I'm not sure Jim. Two things stand out in your post. You lost half the argument when you admitted you're an engineer. Then you really lost it when you bragged about how smart you are. Smart people don't need to tell people how smart they are. Have a good day chum.

[jmomcc]

4 hours ago, max silver said:

Baseball Trade Values assigns $60 million surplus value to Marte which is far from insurmountable for the Blue Jays. I think the stumbling block could arise if the Diamondbacks were looking for close to major league ready talent as most of the Blue Jays better prospects are in the low minors at this point.

I don't think they are factoring in that a third of his contract is deferred. It seems light anyway. 

Anyway, that's still at least two top 100 prospects, probably three. 

[jmomcc]

1 hour ago, Spanky__99 said:

Baseball America has the Jays with 6 players at 60FV, 2 at 55FV and 1 50FV in their top 10, just sayin'. You just named off 3 60's and a 55, that's too much I believe.

Baseball america must have another ranking system than fangraphs. There are 7 total in all baseball on fangraphs. 

[max silver]

32 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

I don't think they are factoring in that a third of his contract is deferred. It seems light anyway. 

Anyway, that's still at least two top 100 prospects, probably three. 

Would the fact that some of the contract is deferred even have a material effect on Marte's overall trade value? He's still owed the money eventually so I don't know if this would necessarily give him much more excess trade value.

[Olerud363.354]

10 hours ago, thatoneguy said:

This is one of the most Dunning-Kruger posts I've ever seen here.

Is it though?

Clements career wRC+ against righties - 82

Schneiders career wRC+ against righties - 112

Jim regresses it (I presume) without math, just uses his intuition from a life of stats, logic and decades of experiences both intellectual and visceral and and comes up with 90/110.

What are the actual numbers if you regress?  Formula on fangraphs looks simple enough, but like Jim I am a very experienced man of statistics so know the answer but would like to see the peanut gallery do the math. 

(fyi I do agree about Terminators point that since Schneider only plays against Josh Towers level righties we can't totally trust his splits). 

[Jimcanuck]

6 hours ago, Sasky05 said:

I'm not sure Jim. Two things stand out in your post. You lost half the argument when you admitted you're an engineer. Then you really lost it when you bragged about how smart you are. Smart people don't need to tell people how smart they are. Have a good day chum.

Gotta use the nuclear option when Dunning Kruger gets tossed in the mix

[Jimcanuck]

5 hours ago, jmomcc said:

Baseball america must have another ranking system than fangraphs. There are 7 total in all baseball on fangraphs. 

Not a different system, just the FG guy longenhagen gives out 50+ grades sparingly.

[Pendleton]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/as-not-inclined-to-move-luis-severino-solely-for-salary-relief.html

 

To Oakland - Jose Berrios + Leo Jimenez 

To Baltimore - Luis Severino + cash (from Toronto)

To Toronto - Nestor German (SP prospect from Baltimore) + lottery ticket prospect(s)

 

A's swap out a veteran SP who needs to be moved, in exchange for another much needed veteran SP. Also receive a young INF who can push for their opening at 2B. 

 

O's likewise add a much needed veteran innings eater and avoid spending aggressively in the soft FA market, in exchange for a prospect who at best wouldn't be in the back of the rotation mix until later in the season. 

 

Jays clear the bulk of Berrios commitment and swap Jimenez for a young SP prospect who can pitch his way into rotation depth consideration by late season or next. 

[jmomcc]

8 hours ago, max silver said:

Would the fact that some of the contract is deferred even have a material effect on Marte's overall trade value? He's still owed the money eventually so I don't know if this would necessarily give him much more excess trade value.

Yea because it changes the surplus value. 

Money you get later is worth less than money you get now. 

[jmomcc]

2 hours ago, Jimcanuck said:

Not a different system, just the FG guy longenhagen gives out 50+ grades sparingly.

He doesn't give out 6 60fv per team because 60fv is an all star. That would be ludicrous. 

I'm assuming BA maybe has its' grades set at the 90% percentile outcome or something and fangraphs has it at some lower percentile. I'm not a subscriber. 

[BatFlip]

18 hours ago, Terminator said:

Jim, take a breath buddy. 

• You’re starting from the wrong baselines (their projections differ by only 5 percent).
• You don't understand regression and how to apply it (no idea where you get the 90-110 numbers from, read the article Laika posted).
• You are ignoring all extrinsic factors (like Davis' numbers being inflated against RHP because the team is very careful in how they deploy him).
• And you’re just making things up (“it’s a skill thing”).

To correct each of your false points I’d have to write a full Fangraphs article, but if you just reflect on the bullet points above you’ll get the gist.

 

 

[Laika]

9 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

He doesn't give out 6 60fv per team because 60fv is an all star. That would be ludicrous. 

I'm assuming BA maybe has its' grades set at the 90% percentile outcome or something and fangraphs has it at some lower percentile. I'm not a subscriber. 

BA does two grades a think. Ceiling and reasonable expectations 

[jmomcc]

17 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

He doesn't give out 6 60fv per team because 60fv is an all star. That would be ludicrous. 

I'm assuming BA maybe has its' grades set at the 90% percentile outcome or something and fangraphs has it at some lower percentile. I'm not a subscriber. 

That does give info that you can't get at a glance in fam graphs usually so its useful. 

But kind of breaks the fangraphs prospect model value if you use it for that

[Jimcanuck]

56 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

He doesn't give out 6 60fv per team because 60fv is an all star. That would be ludicrous. 

I'm assuming BA maybe has its' grades set at the 90% percentile outcome or something and fangraphs has it at some lower percentile. I'm not a subscriber. 

60FV being an all star is FG's convention.  All of the prospect sites use different conventions.  The only thing standardized is the 20-80 scale.

[jmomcc]

23 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

60FV being an all star is FG's convention.  All of the prospect sites use different conventions.  The only thing standardized is the 20-80 scale.

50 means average everyday player pretty much everywhere. That's the only way i've heard anyone use it. 

45 is fringe average, 50 is average. 55 above average, 60 is plus. 

I'd be surprised if BA is different. I listen to their pods and they talk in those terms. 

[Jimcanuck]

12 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

50 means average everyday player pretty much everywhere. That's the only way i've heard anyone use it. 

45 is fringe average, 50 is average. 55 above average, 60 is plus. 

I'd be surprised if BA is different. I listen to their pods and they talk in those terms. 

So 60 is plus, not an all star?

Again, how the the different sites use the 20-80 scale is arbitrary according to their own convention.  They even use different criteria for when a prospect has graduated to MLB, which is why a player may show up on one top 100 list but not another.