Offseason Roster Thread 2025-26

[Brownie19]

21 minutes ago, glory said:

I’m sure there’s some buyer’s remorse with the Santander signing but I doubt they will look to dump him. There’s a real chance for a bounce back season if he’s healthy next season. It should help compensate for whatever decline Springer sees with the bat.

The Jays will definitely add a controllable SP now with the lack of controllable SPs on the team. Bieber adds a bit more stability to the rotation in 2026 so maybe that makes a high upside play (Imai, Woodruff, King) something they consider over a high floor (Suarez).

100% - and Tony slides into the DH spot nicely if Springer isn't resigned (although I hope Springer does the Big Papi thing and resigns on 1 year deals and mashes until he's 40).

[Laika]

9 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Not at all.  I'm already tired of people suggesting it to be frank.  I guess miracles do happen, but there's little to no chance IMO.

Detroit has a good core with Kevin McGonigle on his way.  I think they end up extending him.  He's too important and good not to.

It is basically the Vlad situation

Would be sad for Detroit to get here as a franchise and then not extend him. They should and probably will pay him whatever he wants, eventually. $400M pitcher contract or something insane. 

[Jimcanuck]

Maybe LAA will take on Santander's contract, and send back something useful even. :)

[jmomcc]

I don't think Detroit will extend him. The offer they supposedly gave was laughable. 

I actually think some team will technically get a deal on him WAR to dollar wise just because teams are so reluctant to pay for rentals, if it happens in the offseason. 

[ValiantJaysFan]

9 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Care to elaborate? 

[SeranthonySantander]

39 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

I don't think Detroit will extend him. The offer they supposedly gave was laughable. 

I actually think some team will technically get a deal on him WAR to dollar wise just because teams are so reluctant to pay for rentals, if it happens in the offseason. 

I don't really believe they just offered 4/80.  Baez got 6/140 4 years ago, thats the last big contract I can think of from the tigers.  They probably offered like 6/200 or something.

[sliderguy35]

49 minutes ago, ValiantJaysFan said:

Care to elaborate? 

i'm not brownie but i am high on cease. 

the case is basically that his K% - BB% has been elite for 5 seasons in a row & he just posted the highest swinging strike rate of his career. these are the stats that do a better job of indicating future performance than just his ERA.

His ERA is higher mainly because he ran a .320 BABIP despite the fact that he mostly induces flyballs (which are the type of batted ball with the lowest BABIP). in fact, in the last 10 years, there's only been 3 qualified pitchers (not counting 2020 due to small sample size) who've had a flyball rate and a BABIP that are both 10% higher than league average: 2022 corey kluber, 2017 rick porcello, & 2025 dylan cease.

you're essentially betting on the fact that the things he can control (strikeouts / walks / Stuff numbers) will continue on & the stuff that he can't control (batted ball luck) will regress to at least not being historically bad.

if that happens, you're looking at a guy that would be getting down-ballot cy young votes at potentially a slight discount (although mlb teams are a lot smarter than I am so I have to assume that they know this & there won't really be a discount at all). but definitely not someone who would be our 4th starter

[RobinThicc]

I wonder if they’ll spend like crazy this offseason or if it’s a make one big signing and one big trade.

Cease on a deal with opt outs and brining back Bo would be great. 

[Jimcanuck]

Cease home and away xFIP 3.29 and 3.84

Petco being a pitcher's park, can expect Cease to run an xFIP just under 4.00 with a move to Toronto and ALE.

Interesting that 9 of the top 15 hitter's parks are in the NL.

Anyone know where we can see xFIP-, which is adjusted for park and league?

[sliderguy35]

9 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

Cease home and away xFIP 3.29 and 3.84

Petco being a pitcher's park, can expect Cease to run an xFIP just under 4.00 with a move to Toronto and ALE.

Interesting that 9 of the top 15 hitter's parks are in the NL.

Anyone know where we can see xFIP-, which is adjusted for park and league?

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=c%2C119%2C13&season=2025&month=0&season1=2025&ind=0&v_cr=202301&team=0&sortcol=2&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

Cease xFIP- was 86, 15th among qualified starters, just ahead of joe ryan

[Jimcanuck]

2 minutes ago, sliderguy35 said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=c%2C119%2C13&season=2025&month=0&season1=2025&ind=0&v_cr=202301&team=0&sortcol=2&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

Cease xFIP- was 86, 15th among qualified starters, just ahead of joe ryan

Thanks!

[jmomcc]

43 minutes ago, RobinThicc said:

I wonder if they’ll spend like crazy this offseason or if it’s a make one big signing and one big trade.

Cease on a deal with opt outs and brining back Bo would be great. 

Gausman, Springer, Lauer, Garcia, Varsho are off the books in 2027. 

If you really believe in the homegrown pitching, i think you could spend this year, and dip under again in 2027 or 2028 with largely a homegrown rotation. Or at least with someone like Yesavage in the spot where a $25m pitcher was before. 

[Jimcanuck]

For comparison, 2025 and career xFIP- for top FA pitchers.  Listed by 2025 value:

Valdez, 79, 79

Woodruff, 79, 78

Cease, 86, 91

Suarez, 88, 88

Bassitt, 92, 99

Kelly, 92, 96

Gallen, 99, 88    (Berrios 106, 99)

King, 102, 88

Littell, 104, 102

Eflin 105, 95

Kelly and Bassitt will both be 37 yrs old at season start.

The guys around 100 basically were average, pitching like a #3 or #4 SP.

[Terminator]

Clemens' write up on Cease was good.

The good:

• High velo and Ks
• Durable
• Fastball is great and Slider is elite
• Could squeeze more juice out of him by adding another pitch

The bad:

• If he doesn't add another pitch he runs the risk of losing velo as he ages and then getting knocked around

As for my own analysis (let's face it, that's why you visit the site), it always seemed like slider-heavy pitchers were more prone to TJS. Also, I've always had a hunch that two-pitch guys tend to underperform their peripherals (see: Chris Archer), though I’m not sure how true that is.

If the Jays think they can effectively add to his pitch mix, and you know they are watching video to see if he could add a splitter, then I'd be all for signing him. But if not it's a pass.

[ValiantJaysFan]

1 hour ago, sliderguy35 said:

i'm not brownie but i am high on cease. 

the case is basically that his K% - BB% has been elite for 5 seasons in a row & he just posted the highest swinging strike rate of his career. these are the stats that do a better job of indicating future performance than just his ERA.

His ERA is higher mainly because he ran a .320 BABIP despite the fact that he mostly induces flyballs (which are the type of batted ball with the lowest BABIP). in fact, in the last 10 years, there's only been 3 qualified pitchers (not counting 2020 due to small sample size) who've had a flyball rate and a BABIP that are both 10% higher than league average: 2022 corey kluber, 2017 rick porcello, & 2025 dylan cease.

you're essentially betting on the fact that the things he can control (strikeouts / walks / Stuff numbers) will continue on & the stuff that he can't control (batted ball luck) will regress to at least not being historically bad.

if that happens, you're looking at a guy that would be getting down-ballot cy young votes at potentially a slight discount (although mlb teams are a lot smarter than I am so I have to assume that they know this & there won't really be a discount at all). but definitely not someone who would be our 4th starter

Hmm strong case. My only counter argument would be fly ball pitchers tend not to do well in the AL, especially the East. A lot harder to do big damage against ground ball pitchers, especially with our defence. But, eh I guess we’ll find out if they sign him.

[jmomcc]

15 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

For comparison, 2025 and career xFIP- for top FA pitchers.  Listed by 2025 value:

Valdez, 79, 79

Woodruff, 79, 78

Cease, 86, 91

Suarez, 88, 88

Bassitt, 92, 99

Kelly, 92, 96

Gallen, 99, 88

King, 102, 88

Littell, 104, 102

Eflin 105, 95

Kelly and Bassitt will both be 37 yrs old at season start.

The guys around 100 basically were average, pitching like a #3 or #4 SP.

Woodruff would be the guy for me except for the velo drop off last year. 

[Terminator]

Tyler Rogers would be a wise pickup for the bullpen. He doesn't have any splits and can throw a lot of innings. GB machine who could thrive with our infield defense.

[Olerud363.354]

2 hours ago, Jimcanuck said:

Maybe LAA will take on Santander's contract, and send back something useful even. :)

Santander, Hoffman + ?   for Trout + ?

Like if you use one of those trade calculators what are the + Trout owed 5 years 190 million I think.  So taking away  Santander + Hoffman salary  gets it to 5 years 110 million or something.  But what else to even it out?  Does LAA want to do Trout a service and get him in contention?  Does Trout want to get in contention?  Is Trout too crazy a risk?  Will he play 134 games ever again?  

[jmomcc]

Listening to the rates and barrells pod on free agency. Quite low on tucker and bo. Basically, bo's skillset really doesn't age well. 
 

edit: high on Imai. 

[Jimcanuck]

32 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Tyler Rogers would be a wise pickup for the bullpen. He doesn't have any splits and can throw a lot of innings. GB machine who could thrive with our infield defense.

Agreed, him or Keller as another high leverage guy would be ideal.

According to Spotrac, Jays committ for 2026 is $193.0M, and the projected is $226.8M.  The 2025 total adjusted payroll was $255.2M.

Here are Clemens projections:

Rogers, 2/$22M

Keller, 2/$24M

Bichette, 7/$203M ($29M AAV)

Bregman, 4/$140M ($35M AAV)

If the Jays sign Rogers and Bichette, the committ goes to $233M, exceeding the Spotrac projection.  Using the 2025 payroll gives $22M but teams typically leave wiggle room for in-season acquisitions.  So let's say after signing Rogers and Bichette, the team has $15M left to spend.

There would be no room for the Valdez, Cease, Suarez of the world.

Maybe Bichette agrees to deferrals to reduce his AAV by 5-7% or whatever it is.

I'm not even sure signing Bichette is in the team's best interest, TBH.  Team already has 2B covered by cost controlled guys.

[Brownie19]

32 minutes ago, ValiantJaysFan said:

Hmm strong case. My only counter argument would be fly ball pitchers tend not to do well in the AL, especially the East. A lot harder to do big damage against ground ball pitchers, especially with our defence. But, eh I guess we’ll find out if they sign him.

He's averaged 4.1 fWAR over the past 5 years (where he's 4th in total fWAR over that 5 year span).  That's the primary basis of my confusion.  I don't think it's fair to suggest he hasn't been that good the past couple of years.  Where he'd slot into the playoff rotation would be up for debate.  I'd love to create some redundancy in our depth to plan for the unexpected.

He's entering his age 30 season.  Obviously the term and cost to sign him matters a lot - but he's certainly on the short list of great fits for this team IMO.

[jmomcc]

Bullpen already signed for next year is 

- Hoffman 

- Garcia 

- Little

- Lauer 

- Varland 

- Sandlin 

- Fisher 

- Nance 

- Fluharty 

- Bruhl

- Schultz 

We also have some guys in the system who you'd think could be good additions. I think i'd just straight hold off on this. 

Is Lauer optionable? If i could keep him in triple A as the 6th starter I'd prefer that. 

[Jimcanuck]

6 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

Bullpen already signed for next year is 

- Hoffman 

- Garcia 

- Little

- Lauer 

- Varland 

- Sandlin 

- Fisher 

- Nance 

- Fluharty 

- Bruhl

- Schultz 

We also have some guys in the system who you'd think could be good additions. I think i'd just straight hold off on this. 

Is Lauer optionable? If i could keep him in triple A as the 6th starter I'd prefer that. 

Lauer does not have options.  Little (1), Fluharty (2), Fisher (3), Varland (1) have options.  Likely at least two of them are in Buffalo at the start of the season.

[Terminator]

4 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

Is Lauer optionable? If i could keep him in triple A as the 6th starter I'd prefer that. 

Options

• Hoffman - 0
• Garcia - 0
• Little - 1
• Lauer  - 0
• Varland - 1
• Sandlin - 3
• Fisher - 3
• Nance - 0
• Fluharty - 2
• Bruhl - 0
• Schultz - 2
• Macko - 1
• Francis - 1
• Lazaro - 2
• Easton - 1
• Bastardo - 0 (Rule 5 guy too)

[Terminator]

55 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

Listening to the rates and barrells pod on free agency. Quite low on tucker and bo. Basically, bo's skillset really doesn't age well. 
 

edit: high on Imai. 

Just listened and yeah they are really low on Bo.

Contact on pitches out of the zone ages really poorly and that's a bad sign for Bo, is their argument.

[jmomcc]

3 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Options

• Hoffman - 0
• Garcia - 0
• Little - 1
• Lauer  - 0
• Varland - 1
• Sandlin - 3
• Fisher - 3
• Nance - 0
• Fluharty - 2
• Bruhl - 0
• Schultz - 2
• Macko - 1
• Francis - 1
• Lazaro - 2
• Easton - 1
• Bastardo - 0 (Rule 5 guy too)

It Lauer isn't optionable, i might either decline that contract or sign him and trade him. Depending on how i feel about tieddeman, bloss etc. 

[jmomcc]

5 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Just listened and yeah they are really low on Bo.

Contact on pitches out of the zone ages really poorly and that's a bad sign for Bo.

Yea i kind of knew they wouldn't like it based on that. I was surprised on how low they were on tucker. 

[Jimcanuck]

4 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Just listened and yeah they are really low on Bo.

Contact on pitches out of the zone ages really poorly and that's a bad sign for Bo, is their argument.

Jays have cost controlled guys that can cover 2B.  Signing Bo and relegating them to the bench isn't optimal.  Blue Jays have higher priority needs than a 2B.

[Brownie19]

6 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

It Lauer isn't optionable, i might either decline that contract or sign him and trade him. Depending on how i feel about tieddeman, bloss etc. 

That's a wild take.  You're keeping Lauer around next year for sure. 

Anything we ever get from Tieddeman or Bloss is gravy at this point.  You can't rely on either (and I think Bloss is out until mid-season as is), although obviously fingers crossed on Ricky - as the talent level is elite.

[Orgfiller]

1 minute ago, Jimcanuck said:

Jays have cost controlled guys that can cover 2B.  Signing Bo and relegating them to the bench isn't optimal.  Blue Jays have higher priority needs than a 2B.

Ever heard of trades? Or having depth? Bo projects for 4 WAR in 2026, and given where the Jays are on the win curve, 4 wins from one player vs a collection of guys who might put up 2-2.5 if you platoon them well enough is a big deal.