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Posted

 

Probably on 26-Man

 

  • C - Kirk    (11.6)  
  • 1B - Guerrero Jr. (35.7)
  • 2B/3B/SS - Clement (4.3 - arb2 proj.)
  • 3B/RF - Barger (0.8 - nm)
  • SS - Gimenez (15.2)  
  • LF/CF - Lukes (0.8 - nm)
  • CF  - Varsho (9.7 - arb3 proj.)
  • RF - Springer (25.0)    
  • DH - Santander (18.5)  
  • CF - Straw (5.4) 
  • C - Heineman (1 - arb1 proj.)
  • 2B/LF - Schneider (0.8 - nm)
  • 2B/SS - Jimenez (no options)   
  • 3B/1B - Okamoto (15)

 

  • SP - Gausman (22.0) 
  • SP - Cease (27.0) 
  • SP - Yesavage (0.8 - nm)
  • SP - Bieber (16)
  • SP - Ponce (10)

 

  • RHP - Hoffman (11)          
  • RHP - Varland (0.8 - nm)
  • RHP - Garcia (7.5)
  • RHP - Rogers (12.33)
  • RHP - Berrios (18.7)
  • LHP - Lauer (4.4 arb 4 proj.)                        
  • RHP - Nance (0.8 - nm no options)
  • RHP - Miles (0.8 - nm (RULE V)

Rest of 40-Man (option years)

  • RHP - Francis
  • LHP - Fluharty
  • LHP - Macko
  • LHP - Little (0.8 - nm)
  • LHP - Tiedemann
  • RHP - Bloss
  • RHP - Schultz
  • RHP - Bastardo
  • RHP - Estrada
  • RHP - Lee
  • RHP - Fisher (0.8 - nm)
  • C - Valenzuela
  • OF - Loperfido
  • OF - Clase

Not on 40-Man

RHP - Rodriguez (6.4)

40-Man spots filled: 41

Projected CBT Hit (Thresholds 244M/264M/284M/304M)

26-Man: 277.5M

Rest of 40-Man: 3M

Rodriguez: 6.4M

Pre-Arb Pool + Benefits: 20M

Total: 307M                                                                                                                                              

 

 

Posted

We saw this year that good personalities and chemistry really matter. I’d make every effort to just run it back. Resign everyone, even Max if he wants to try one more year. 

Community Moderator
Posted

Kind of weird going into an offseason with no holes in the lineup or bench that have to be addressed. Obviously if you can keep Bo or add another impact bat you do it, but there's no necessity. They have a good 13-man group of bats (with Jimenez really being the only unproven guy if they decide to keep him on roster now that he's out of options.

The position player depth doesn't currently extend to the rest of the 40-man, so  they'll need to find guys with options who can play at the MLB level. Not sure if anyone in the org fits the bill.

 

Posted

Rogers was willing to go over the tax line last year after a losing season.

Would they be willing to go way over for one or two more years? Springer and Gausman are off the books after next year. And then a couple more in 2027. 

I'm not sure what this free agency class looks like but the market might be a tad soft with lockout concerns?

It would really help if our farm system was better to make some trades. 

Posted
27 minutes ago, BTS said:

Kind of weird going into an offseason with no holes in the lineup or bench that have to be addressed. Obviously if you can keep Bo or add another impact bat you do it, but there's no necessity. They have a good 13-man group of bats (with Jimenez really being the only unproven guy if they decide to keep him on roster now that he's out of options.

The position player depth doesn't currently extend to the rest of the 40-man, so  they'll need to find guys with options who can play at the MLB level. Not sure if anyone in the org fits the bill.

 


Baserunning is a pretty big hole.

Posted

Never thought I'd be depressed talking about hot stove baseball, but here we are. 

I don't think Lukes is going to start next season. They either bring Bichette back and Barger/Santander are in the OF corners, or Bichette leaves and they probably just stick Barger at 3B and try to find an outfielder to replace Bo's spot in the lineup. In both scenarios, Lukes falls back into a 4th OF role, which I think he's better suited for anyway. It will be interesting to see what they do with the bench if that happens. If there's even a chance to trade Straw without having to eat up money now, then I think you do that in a heartbeat and put Lukes in the 4th OF role. That $6M can be used way more efficiently, and Straw is a prime candidate to turn back into a pumpkin next season. 

The rotation is really what will make or break the 2026 team. They won in spite of the rotation for most of this season. Without Yesavage panning out and the Bieber trade, things would have looked a lot different. They need to add legit upside to the rotation this winter. Luckily the FA market is strongest in SP's. That's one area Atkins has to hit a home run. It's unfair to expect any FA SP signing to pan out like Gausman's did, but essentially have to find the next Gausman contract this winter. Bieber, Cease, Woodruff, Valdez, Suarez, King....there are options with varying levels of upside, floor, and risk.

Posted
1 hour ago, BTS said:

 

Probably on 26-Man

 

   
DH - Santander (18.5)  
CF - Straw (5.4) 

2B/SS - Jimenez (no options)


RHP - Hoffman (11)          
LHP - Little (0.8 - nm)

Currently on 40-Man but likely DFA'd/Non-Tendered
OF - Clase (no options) -DFA

RHP - Tate (1.7 arb proj. and no options) -DFA
LHP -  Bruihl (no options) - DFA

Not on 40-Man (Pending Free Agent)

SS - Bichette (re-sign)
1B - France (let walk)
Util - Kiner-Falefa (let walk)
SP - Bieber (let walk)
SP - Bassitt (re-sign as 5th Starter)
SP - Scherzer (let walk)
RHP - Dominguez (let walk)

Options

Shane Bieber 16M player option (4M buyout)

40-Man spots filled: 39

Projected CBT Hit (Thresholds 244M/264M/284M/304M)

26-Man: 205.6M

Rest of 40-Man: 3M

Pre-Arb Pool + Benefits: 20M

Total: 228.6M                                                                                                                                              

 

 

Well going down the list. I don’t think you let Santander from potentially adding an offensive upgrade like a Schwarber for example. Maybe eat some money and send him elsewhere.

Try to move on from Straw or bury him in the minors. Think we need to do better as a 4th OF especially considering how they choose to use him.

I think you look to trade both Hoffman and Little. Don’t think either can be here next Season after different outcomes. Neither may recover from them.

You can let Jiminez and Clase go they are both nothing. Maybe they can get compete for jobs in Spring but with no options they lose all value.

Tate and Bruhil can kick rocks or sign minor league deals.

Let all pending free agents walk outside of Bichette and Bassit. Re-sign Bo as your Second Baseman for something similar to what Marcus Semien got. Bassit 1 year for 15m.

If Bieber declines his option which he most likely will. Offer him a show me contract for 1 year plus an option. Or let him walk if he wants a multi year deal.

In free agency go after a power bat Schwarber or Murakami from Japan could fit the bill. Rotate Schwarber through DH, 1B, and LF. Let him hit second infront of Vlad. Imagine Springer, Schwarber, Vladdy, Barger, and Bo coming at you right out of the gates.

Think you gotta bring in 2 starters. Framber Valdez might be a little out reach budget wise. But Dylan Cease would be an excellent fit. Also think the Jays should dip back into the Japanese Free Agent market and take a strong run at Tatsuya Amai. But adding a left-handed Starter in general might be something they want to do. They might just let Lauer win his job back in Spring.

Look in adding a couple high velo relievers with swing and miss. 

That would be my wish list. Trim the fat. Improve the bench. Add a power bat. Target a top of the rotation arm. Add swing and miss to the pen. All of it attainable absolutely not. But you have the baseline of a really good team. How much will they go into the tax to improve it is the question.

Posted
1 hour ago, KevinGregg said:

We saw this year that good personalities and chemistry really matter. I’d make every effort to just run it back. Resign everyone, even Max if he wants to try one more year. 

I don’t think running it back is going to be sufficient need to bring in atleast one top end starter and some bench and bullpen upgrades at the minimum. You have to choose between Bassit or Max. Can’t have both. Bassit seems like the better choice due to durability and most likely to want to stay.

Have to factor in how hard it is going to get back here. The Yankees are going to be healthier and most likely improved. The Rays are a sleeper giant with an incredible lineup. I think they severely under performed this year. The Red Sox and Orioles will very much be in the picture if they improve pitching.

Posted

Jays should put all their money into pitching. It'd be nice to bring Bo back too but doing both might be difficult. 

A side tangent after watching the post season and thinking about the rise of pitching injuries. I know MLB won't do this anytime soon, but I think all pitchers should have to face 6 batters minimum. Our pitching staff seemed so exhausted and injured by end of year because of too many outings. Even the announcers glaze over how many warmup pitches a pitcher throws before the first one to a batter. Analytics has min maxed each batting encounter to the extreme. To use an analogy, they're approaching a 162 game season with the mentality of a 100m sprint. 

What shocked me was to hear Gausman led the AL in IP but didn't even break 200 IP. It's little wonder this all has knock on effects. And it doesn't seem to be a Jays only problem. 

Not that this really plays into pitching acquisition strategy. If anything the Dodgers winning with elite starters makes me feel that going for one true ace might be better than 2-3 midrange arms. But a case could be made either way. 

Community Moderator
Posted
26 minutes ago, glory said:

Never thought I'd be depressed talking about hot stove baseball, but here we are. 

I don't think Lukes is going to start next season. They either bring Bichette back and Barger/Santander are in the OF corners, or Bichette leaves and they probably just stick Barger at 3B and try to find an outfielder to replace Bo's spot in the lineup. In both scenarios, Lukes falls back into a 4th OF role, which I think he's better suited for anyway. It will be interesting to see what they do with the bench if that happens. If there's even a chance to trade Straw without having to eat up money now, then I think you do that in a heartbeat and put Lukes in the 4th OF role. That $6M can be used way more efficiently, and Straw is a prime candidate to turn back into a pumpkin next season. 

The rotation is really what will make or break the 2026 team. They won in spite of the rotation for most of this season. Without Yesavage panning out and the Bieber trade, things would have looked a lot different. They need to add legit upside to the rotation this winter. Luckily the FA market is strongest in SP's. That's one area Atkins has to hit a home run. It's unfair to expect any FA SP signing to pan out like Gausman's did, but essentially have to find the next Gausman contract this winter. Bieber, Cease, Woodruff, Valdez, Suarez, King....there are options with varying levels of upside, floor, and risk.

Yeah, I think they'll definitely be shopping at the top of the FA market, and they probably want to high end guys to push Lauer back to a swingman role who can fill in when injuries hit. With Gausman turning 35 in January and also a free agent after 2026, they'll want someone to pair with Yesavage at the top of the rotation for the next 5 years. 

It's a weird FA market for SP though, in that there are a lot of options but they all have warts. Like, I'd have a really hard time ranking these guys, and I don't think any are really an ace except maybe Valdez who would be terrible for the vibes:
 

Cease - frontline stuff but gets hit hard more often than a true ace

Valdez - kind of a piece of s***

King - stuff doesn't grade as + anymore and has scary shoulder issues

Bieber - looks more solid mid-rotation than ace 

Woodruff - massive injury risk

Suarez - has never thrown 160 innings, stuff doesn't match results

Kelly - old as dirt

Gallen - might suck now?

 

Posted

The best case scenario is JoJo Parker starts off red hot and we can pull off a Skubal trade.

We need a better farm. The way to get aces is to develop them or trade for them. 

Posted
1 minute ago, jmomcc said:

The best case scenario is JoJo Parker starts off red hot and we can pull off a Skubal trade.

We need a better farm. The way to get aces is to develop them or trade for them. 

Yes he is going to be dealt because tigers won’t be running it back.  4/80 was their offer.  

Posted
13 minutes ago, BTS said:

Yeah, I think they'll definitely be shopping at the top of the FA market, and they probably want to high end guys to push Lauer back to a swingman role who can fill in when injuries hit. With Gausman turning 35 in January and also a free agent after 2026, they'll want someone to pair with Yesavage at the top of the rotation for the next 5 years. 

It's a weird FA market for SP though, in that there are a lot of options but they all have warts. Like, I'd have a really hard time ranking these guys, and I don't think any are really an ace except maybe Valdez who would be terrible for the vibes:
 

Cease - frontline stuff but gets hit hard more often than a true ace

Valdez - kind of a piece of s***

King - stuff doesn't grade as + anymore and has scary shoulder issues

Bieber - looks more solid mid-rotation than ace 

Woodruff - massive injury risk

Suarez - has never thrown 160 innings, stuff doesn't match results

Kelly - old as dirt

Gallen - might suck now?

 

Don’t forget Tatsuya Imai he might be the best of the crop.

Posted
Just now, Jonn said:

Don’t forget Tatsuya Imai he might be the best of the crop.

God i hate to say it, but dodgers probably? 

I'd love to get him. Apparently has a super low release point. 

Posted
11 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

The best case scenario is JoJo Parker starts off red hot and we can pull off a Skubal trade.

We need a better farm. The way to get aces is to develop them or trade for them. 

I think Skubal is more likely to get traded in the off-season over in-season. Depends it they will go anywhere near $350 million which is the current rumoured number. Yankees will probably be prepared to trade anything despite being hesitant in the past but they know they gotta take advantage of Judge’s window right now.

Posted
2 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

God i hate to say it, but dodgers probably? 

I'd love to get him. Apparently has a super low release point. 

They can only sign so many starters. They will still want to try Roki Sasaki back in that role. And they have multiple injured Starters that would probably be in the middle of our rotation.

They can’t get everyone.

Posted
17 minutes ago, Jonn said:

They can only sign so many starters. They will still want to try Roki Sasaki back in that role. And they have multiple injured Starters that would probably be in the middle of our rotation.

They can’t get everyone.

Would he slot in at the top of the rotation? 

Posted
18 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

Would he slot in at the top of the rotation? 

It's hard to tell because its not exactly a 1 to 1 comparison from moving to Japan to the MLB. But he will be 100 percent in an MLB Rotation wherever he signs. And has high velo and swing and miss stuff. He's also trending upwards. He has been consistently getting better. More strikeouts, less walks every season. His command went from an issue a few years to go to one of this strengths. He's almost cut his walk percentage in half since his first full professional Season in Japan.

Posted
35 minutes ago, Jonn said:

It's hard to tell because its not exactly a 1 to 1 comparison from moving to Japan to the MLB. But he will be 100 percent in an MLB Rotation wherever he signs. And has high velo and swing and miss stuff. He's also trending upwards. He has been consistently getting better. More strikeouts, less walks every season. His command went from an issue a few years to go to one of this strengths. He's almost cut his walk percentage in half since his first full professional Season in Japan.

I'd love to get him then. Him and yesavage and gausman would be a good top three for next year. 

Posted

Re-sign Bo, Bassitt and Scherzer (if he is willing to come cheap) and then see if you can add a Dylan Cease or Frambar Valdez to the top of the rotation. I would also be very interested in Devin Williams if he could be had for a reasonable amount, and I would look to slot Ricky Tiedemann into the bp.

Posted
14 minutes ago, Scionz said:

Re-sign Bo, Bassitt and Scherzer (if he is willing to come cheap) and then see if you can add a Dylan Cease or Frambar Valdez to the top of the rotation. I would also be very interested in Devin Williams if he could be had for a reasonable amount, and I would look to slot Ricky Tiedemann into the bp.

Scherzer does not have much left, must be better options

Posted
4 minutes ago, philly30 said:

Scherzer does not have much left, must be better options

Yeah signing Scherzer again is crazy talk. We need more reliability, our rotation was shambles going into September and we got lucky Yesavage stepped in a played a huge role.

Need 1 topline SP type like Cease and probably 1 innings eater/mid-guy like Bassitt.

For the pen, 1-2 reliable arms at the backend.

For the lineup, either bring back Bo or sign Bellinger/Tucker

Thats pretty much it?

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