Twins (Woods Richardson) vs Blue Jays (Lauer): 8/27/25, 7:07pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeesh, rough loss.

[Jays24]

Feel like the Jays are in a position where they need to punt on the 6 man rotation and use one of their starters as a high leverage reliever. 

Just grow a pair and make a decision because it'll help us in the playoffs too knowing if any of the starters can be trusted in late innings. 

[Orgfiller]

Just now, Jays24 said:

Feel like the Jays are in a position where they need to punt on the 6 man rotation and use one of their starters as a high leverage reliever. 

Just grow a pair and make a decision because it'll help us in the playoffs too knowing if any of the starters can be trusted in late innings. 

This is such a silly post but I'll entertain it.

Usually the starters moving to the bullpen for the postseason are guys who have really good stuff. I don't know if Berrios or Eric Lauer with their kitchen sink arsenals, vetrin presents and traditional windups are what anyone has in mind as a fireman break glass in case of emergency reliever.

[Jays24]

15 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

This is such a silly post but I'll entertain it.

Usually the starters moving to the bullpen for the postseason are guys who have really good stuff. I don't know if Berrios or Eric Lauer with their kitchen sink arsenals, vetrin presents and traditional windups are what anyone has in mind as a fireman break glass in case of emergency reliever.

If you haven't noticed, the Jays have the worst bullpen in baseball in August.  We desperately need high leverage arms and having one of our starters is the only method to help at this stage. 

With all the days off, our starters are good enough to pitch on their regular schedules so not sure what part you find silly...

[Governator]

At the end of the day we don't have someone that can come in and just stop the bleeding.... All of our guys just walk too many to be reliable to get out of jams.  Time for a starter to go 7IP+ and our offense to put up some crooked numbers.

[Laika]

The Jays don't really have any SP that you want to just trust to go deep. All of these guys, except for maybe a Bieber when he is on, probably have bad drops third time through the order and they become worse options than your worst RP. 

Just look at Bassitt last night at the end. He was cruising and then he wasn't. 

And the Jays also don't really have a bullpen depth problem. So shrinking the pen isn't the solution. 

The only thing they could really try to do is hunt for more talent/quality which is obviously almost impossible after the deadline. The aggressive moves to this end would be callups. Other than getting Fisher back up for Bruihl soon, the only one I see is Yesavage. That's kind of it. Get Yesavage up and see if he is a difference maker somewhere. 

Or get in the heads of Little, Varland, Hoffman, etc. and get them to figure it out. Really no reason that Varland should be getting hit around like this. Little needs a different game plan because guys are not swinging as much. Hoffman needs a lobotomy and his Jekyl/Hyde shtick is stale at this point. 

[Stangstag]

9 minutes ago, Laika said:

The Jays don't really have any SP that you want to just trust to go deep. All of these guys, except for maybe a Bieber when he is on, probably have bad drops third time through the order and they become worse options than your worst RP. 

Just look at Bassitt last night at the end. He was cruising and then he wasn't. 

And the Jays also don't really have a bullpen depth problem. So shrinking the pen isn't the solution. 

The only thing they could really try to do is hunt for more talent/quality which is obviously almost impossible after the deadline. The aggressive moves to this end would be callups. Other than getting Fisher back up for Bruihl soon, the only one I see is Yesavage. That's kind of it. Get Yesavage up and see if he is a difference maker somewhere. 

Or get in the heads of Little, Varland, Hoffman, etc. and get them to figure it out. Really no reason that Varland should be getting hit around like this. Little needs a different game plan because guys are not swinging as much. Hoffman needs a lobotomy and his Jekyl/Hyde shtick is stale at this point. 

For Varland, he’s throwing the secondary stuff way too much. Why? Who is calling for the breaking pitches so much? Is coming from Kirk? Walker? The front office?

Gotta wonder with this stuff. Hoffman has had stretches too where he goes away from the fastball too much. 

[Nexii]

19 minutes ago, Laika said:

The Jays don't really have any SP that you want to just trust to go deep. All of these guys, except for maybe a Bieber when he is on, probably have bad drops third time through the order and they become worse options than your worst RP. 

Just look at Bassitt last night at the end. He was cruising and then he wasn't. 

And the Jays also don't really have a bullpen depth problem. So shrinking the pen isn't the solution. 

The only thing they could really try to do is hunt for more talent/quality which is obviously almost impossible after the deadline. The aggressive moves to this end would be callups. Other than getting Fisher back up for Bruihl soon, the only one I see is Yesavage. That's kind of it. Get Yesavage up and see if he is a difference maker somewhere. 

Or get in the heads of Little, Varland, Hoffman, etc. and get them to figure it out. Really no reason that Varland should be getting hit around like this. Little needs a different game plan because guys are not swinging as much. Hoffman needs a lobotomy and his Jekyl/Hyde shtick is stale at this point. 

It's weird how like all our relievers come out and can barely throw a single strike over the plate. A lot of it is the walks and getting behind in counts.

Doesn't seem to be overuse, they're sitting on 50-60 IP which is typical for other teams relievers at this point in the season. 

Our SP isn't amazing but at least they aren't getting blown out most games.

[Nexii]

Look at these walk rates for August, other than Nance. Even worse than I imagined

[Governator]

3 minutes ago, Nexii said:

Look at these walk rates for August, other than Nance. Even worse than I imagined

 

It's equal to a game at most each, like a starter having a bad couple games. They are better than what you see there and will likely level out a bit.  They are not lights out, nor have they been but just being closer to average at best is what is needed.  They need a solid game or two and get some confidence back.

Nance is a little deceiving, he's been hit around this month as well and lets in runs, just not his own.  He needs a clean inning to start.

[Laika]

6 minutes ago, Nexii said:

Look at these walk rates for August, other than Nance. Even worse than I imagined

Holy s***. 

Brendon Little just has bottom tier command. 82 Location+. 20 grade.
Hoffman has 91 Location+ for his career. 30 grade. 
Dominguez is the same as Hoffman. Double minus natural command.

You would expect these three to go through stretches like this. For it to happen simultaneously is poor luck at the team level. 

Yariel should not be this bad though.
Varland is the one who is supposed to have plus command. 
I don't know about Fluharty. 

Kind of one of the follies when you ACQUIRE and don't DEVELOP your plus Stuff relievers is that they almost certainly have warts, command being the most likely wart, because teams just don't tend to let guys with plus Stuff and Locations go very often. They retain them, extend them, etc. 

And maybe there is a cumulative effect issue where opposing teams can kind of have a general gameplan against the entire Jays pen - make them throw strikes. Unless it's Louis Varland, then you should hunt meatballs early. Probably some benefit on the other side where they don't have to check the iPad and gameplan every single opposing pitcher with intensity or even if they do, there is this overarching preparation theme to fall back on. All of them suck at throwing strikes. Wait them out. Let them hit you. Wait for Jeff to throw a 96 mph fastball down the middle because he just missed with every other pitch. 

[Pendleton]

[Brownie19]

Look at the AAA walk rates over the past 2 years.  Ever pitcher who moves up to AAA immediately walks 7+ per inning.  It's our coaching strategy.  They've clearly just instructed all pitchers to stop throwing strikes.  You can't get hit hard if you don't throw strikes!  It's 4D chess guys.

You don't have to look very far to see we have a bullpen full of nasty, yet volatile arms.  Remember when everyone complained we didn't have swing and miss bullpen arms and high K rates?  The front office actually listened to you!  That's no longer an issue, but it comes with it's own pitfalls (which you ought to have known).  There are always going to be ups and downs throughout a season.  We're better to have this "down" swing right now and not in October.

[sliderguy35]

41 minutes ago, Laika said:

Kind of one of the follies when you ACQUIRE and don't DEVELOP your plus Stuff relievers is that they almost certainly have warts, command being the most likely wart, because teams just don't tend to let guys with plus Stuff and Locations go very often. They retain them, extend them, etc.  

this feels a bit reductive... if a prospect has plus stuff & command, the org is essentially always going to stretch them out as a starter. homegrown prospects basically only end up as relievers unless they have warts.

looking briefly at the top 50 qualified relievers by Stuff+, 14 of them have above-average Location+ numbers. (28%). stuff and location are just generally gonna be inversely correlated with one another (it's really hard to command nasty stuff!)

the jays were always going to experience some kind of BB% regression. Prior to august they were league average in BB% (9.3%) despite being in the bottom quarter of the league in both First-Pitch Strike% & Zone rate 

their zone rate is the same in august as it was in the prior months & their FPS% is only down about 2 points in august. despite that, their BB% is up more than 5% for the month. it's frustrating as a viewer that they pitch without count leverage so often, but it's also true that they're just not a true talent 15% BB rate bullpen.

it's been a rough month for sure, but they get enough whiffs & strikeouts that it makes up for it in the long run. even after a month of having the worst bullpen walk rate in baseball, they're still top 5 in K% - BB% and SIERA for the entire season among all bullpens. 

keep the faith!

[Orgfiller]

The thing about a nasty bullpen with iffy command is, as sliderguy points out, that they're gonna have stretches where they're unhittable and stretches where they're walking the park. You can't tell me you'd rather have a bullpen of command artists that in theory induces lots of weak contact, because the ceiling isn't as high on those kinds. We saw those types of mediocre stuff bullpens in the past and everyone called for the FO to go for swing and miss.

Come the playoffs, if the bullpen core gets out of this funk, you have a bunch of relievers who can strike any hitter out regardless of the handedness. That kind of group can get you very far in the playoffs, just takes a little bit of luck going your way the same as any other championship winning squad. Everything has to be clicking at the same time, and when it clicks for guys with good stuff for a week or two they're very tough to hit.

[Jays24]

[Brownie19]

FFS - can you stop spamming the same massive image in multiple threads please?  We are all well aware.

[Laika]

28 minutes ago, sliderguy35 said:

looking briefly at the top 50 qualified relievers by Stuff+, 14 of them have above-average Location+ numbers. (28%). stuff and location are just generally gonna be inversely correlated with one another (it's really hard to command nasty stuff!)

Yes, but there is a stark difference between a 97 Location+ and something around 90. I don't remember the standard deviations but I feel like once you get down around 90 you are talking about nearly 20 grade command. I think 3 points is about 1 SD. 

The Jays have the 4th and 5th worst qualified RP by Location+ in Little and Seranthony and also the 17th and 23rd worst in Fluharty and Hoffman. That is out of 163 qualified. 2nd percentile to 14th percentile on the scale, for those four guys.

At the team level, seasonally, they have a 94 Location+ which is tied second worst in baseball. But the worst team is the A's who traded Mason Miller, and the Jays acquired Seranthony, so it is possible the Jays pen in fact has the worst Locations in MLB right now, at the true talent level.***

Yes they trade it for Stuff and being tied for #4 in Stuff+ is good. 106 Stuff+. But there are 10 teams with a Stuff+ of 105 or better in their pens on the season. And only one of them has a Location+ under 97 (Toronto). 

Have to wonder if they just have one or two too many scattershop command guys in there, though, and the tradeoff they have made for Stuff has cost them disproportionately in the command department. I mean if you are going to be "the worst" in baseball at locations you might need to be the best in the stuff department. We don't have a Mason Miller. 

 

*** actually, you can just filter for Stuff and Locations by dates. Toronto has a team RP Location+ of 89 since August 1st. omgz. 

[Laika]

Toronto is funny. 

SP: nearly the worst Stuff+ in MLB. 

RP: the worst Location+ in MLB. 

[Brownie19]

I can't wait for there to be 4 straight months of moaning about the bullpen and calling for the entire organization to be fired when we get knocked out of the playoffs.  It's going to be super fun.

[Laika]

5 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I can't wait for there to be 4 straight months of moaning about the bullpen and calling for the entire organization to be fired when we get knocked out of the playoffs.  It's going to be super fun.

0.2% chance to miss the playoffs still 

[sliderguy35]

27 minutes ago, Laika said:

Have to wonder if they just have one or two too many scattershop command guys in there, though, and the tradeoff they have made for Stuff has cost them disproportionately in the command department. I mean if you are going to be "the worst" in baseball at locations you might need to be the best in the stuff department. We don't have a Mason Miller. 

Pitching+ tries to do exactly what you're referring to here in terms of the trade-off & they're sitting at a 101, so right around league average this year.

the standard deviation for Location+ for relievers is about 6 points, so on the season they're a standard deviation lower than average (a 40 on the 20-80 scale). it's also not nearly as sticky as Stuff+ (80 pitches vs 400 pitches) so I feel a lot better about full season bullpen results vs 1 poor month. 

 

[Spanky__99]

3 hours ago, Laika said:

The Jays don't really have any SP that you want to just trust to go deep. All of these guys, except for maybe a Bieber when he is on, probably have bad drops third time through the order and they become worse options than your worst RP. 

Just look at Bassitt last night at the end. He was cruising and then he wasn't. 

And the Jays also don't really have a bullpen depth problem. So shrinking the pen isn't the solution. 

The only thing they could really try to do is hunt for more talent/quality which is obviously almost impossible after the deadline. The aggressive moves to this end would be callups. Other than getting Fisher back up for Bruihl soon, the only one I see is Yesavage. That's kind of it. Get Yesavage up and see if he is a difference maker somewhere. 

Or get in the heads of Little, Varland, Hoffman, etc. and get them to figure it out. Really no reason that Varland should be getting hit around like this. Little needs a different game plan because guys are not swinging as much. Hoffman needs a lobotomy and his Jekyl/Hyde shtick is stale at this point. 

Mentioned this last night about Fisher and Yesavage, Yesavage will likely be purchased this weekend against the Brew Crew and Fisher on Monday Sept 1st, as the extra pitcher in September. Flu can be on standby in Buffalo if needed.

[Jays24]

51 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

FFS - can you stop spamming the same massive image in multiple threads please?  We are all well aware.

Its literally this thread and my response to you in another thread.  Cool your briefs lol. 

[Spanky__99]

Lots of Captain Hindsight takes on the trade deadline recently, f***in' birds.🦤🖕

[Brownie19]

30 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Its literally this thread and my response to you in another thread.  Cool your briefs lol. 

Learn to fix the size then.  It's more obnoxious than your comments.

[Nexii]

48 minutes ago, Laika said:

0.2% chance to miss the playoffs still 

Detroit made it with 0.2%. Just saying

 

[Jays24]

12 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Learn to fix the size then.  It's more obnoxious than your comments.

Cant disagree there lol. 

[Jays24]

Just a funny AI video.  Hope the usual suspects arent afraid to laugh lol. 

[Brownie19]

That video was already posted.