Blue Jays (Bieber) vs Marlins (TBD): 8/22/25, 7:10pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ooh, the fearsome TBD.

[Laika]

Fangraphs predicts they are going

TOR Ryan Gusto (R)

TOR Janson Junk (R)

TOR Eury Pérez (R)

[sliderguy35]

hell yeah, bieber day 

i took a look at the 3 rehab starts he made in buffalo (aka the ones we actually have data for) and came out super impressed. here are the highlights:

Fastball

• was averaging 92.8, up about a full tick from his brief appearance in 2024 and a tick-and-a-half up from 2023. his fastball has always been elite when its 92+ in terms of whiffs & contact management
• shape was identical even with the velo increase which is a good sign (usually more velo = less vert)
• was commanding it really well to the glove side

Slider

• literally exactly the same shape / velo-wise as 2024, with essentially robotic command to the low glove-side to play off the fastball
• yup that's 80-grade command alright

Curveball / Cutter

• curveball / cutter shape and velocity are the same as they were in 2024
• in 2022 & 2023 his curve had gotten a lot more horizontal than 12-6. he mentioned in an interview with dallas braden that he was trying to avoid that. good to see that the shape is still consistent

Changeup

• bieber's completely reworked his changeup based on what i've seen. previous shape was 6 Vert / 16 Horizontal @ 89 mph. The new shape is 2 Vert (!) and 12 Horizontal at the exact same velo (!!). 
• frankly this shape is absolutely bonkers at that velo and is more comparable to something like frankie montas' or chris martin's splitter (+2-3 mph of velo) than it is to any changeup I could find. 
• he hasn't quite been able to command it like the other offerings in his arsenal, but if he does it'll be murder on left handers

obviously shapes can only tell us so much but it's a great sign that his command on his primary offerings looks as good as it does. i'm pretty confident that he's going to look like the #1 option that we traded for down the stretch

[Brownie19]

And sliderguy35 locks up the ROY for this forum - it's over folks!

I got a little chub reading that post.  Interesting that his change up is only 3 MPH +/- slower than the fastball.  Reminds me of Zack Greinke...

 

[jaysblue]

Definitely tuning into the game tonight! Should be a great night for baseball! Bieber's debut, Red Sox/Yankees and Dodgers/Padres)! Perfect Friday summer evening! 

[sliderguy35]

34 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

And sliderguy35 locks up the ROY for this forum - it's over folks!

I got a little chub reading that post.  Interesting that his change up is only 3 MPH +/- slower than the fastball.  Reminds me of Zack Greinke...

 

great comp. 2015 greinke's changeup was also 2 & 12 @ 89 mph playing off a 92 mph fastball (although greinke's fastball was way more cut-ride, it only had 2 inches of horizontal). greinke's command of it was much closer to what bieber's doing with his slider though (they're both freaks)

[John_Havok]

Most anticipated game of the season to date?

 

[BatFlip]

6 minutes ago, sliderguy35 said:

great comp. 2015 greinke's changeup was also 2 & 12 @ 89 mph playing off a 92 mph fastball (although greinke's fastball was way more cut-ride, it only had 2 inches of horizontal). greinke's command of it was much closer to what bieber's doing with his slider though (they're both freaks)

 

1 hour ago, sliderguy35 said:

hell yeah, bieber day 

i took a look at the 3 rehab starts he made in buffalo (aka the ones we actually have data for) and came out super impressed. here are the highlights:

Fastball

• was averaging 92.8, up about a full tick from his brief appearance in 2024 and a tick-and-a-half up from 2023. his fastball has always been elite when its 92+ in terms of whiffs & contact management
• shape was identical even with the velo increase which is a good sign (usually more velo = less vert)
• was commanding it really well to the glove side

Slider

• literally exactly the same shape / velo-wise as 2024, with essentially robotic command to the low glove-side to play off the fastball
• yup that's 80-grade command alright

Curveball / Cutter

• curveball / cutter shape and velocity are the same as they were in 2024
• in 2022 & 2023 his curve had gotten a lot more horizontal than 12-6. he mentioned in an interview with dallas braden that he was trying to avoid that. good to see that the shape is still consistent

Changeup

• bieber's completely reworked his changeup based on what i've seen. previous shape was 6 Vert / 16 Horizontal @ 89 mph. The new shape is 2 Vert (!) and 12 Horizontal at the exact same velo (!!). 
• frankly this shape is absolutely bonkers at that velo and is more comparable to something like frankie montas' or chris martin's splitter (+2-3 mph of velo) than it is to any changeup I could find. 
• he hasn't quite been able to command it like the other offerings in his arsenal, but if he does it'll be murder on left handers

obviously shapes can only tell us so much but it's a great sign that his command on his primary offerings looks as good as it does. i'm pretty confident that he's going to look like the #1 option that we traded for down the stretch

 

Tell... me... more.....

[BatFlip]

17 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Most anticipated game of the season to date?

 

I'm pumped! 

I don't want to get too hyped, but I'm still dreaming of an epic David Price type run by Bieber through the end of the season.

[jaysblue]

40 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Most anticipated game of the season to date?

 

Definitely up there at either #1 or #2.

Would say the Scherzer/Kershaw pitching matchup in LA at the beginning of the month was No. 1 in my books. The nostalgia and build up before the game. As well, that game had October vibes to it. 

[G-Snarls]

Today is the day 

[G-Snarls]

55 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Most anticipated game of the season to date?

 

Only way it could have been more so was if we were playing BOS or NYY today instead of the Marlins 

[Brownie19]

Is there a simple "dummies guide to pitch shapes" someone could provide me?  We say his change went from 6 horizontal/16 vertical to 2 horizontal/12 vertical and that's "better"?

I always thought it was like there's an axis and that for horizontal, one side of the axis is positive and the other is negative and the #'s represent the # of inches (?) that it moves?  Am I way off base?  I'd love to learn more about this as it's an area I'm clueless in [insert joke here].

[Omar]

Trying not to get my hopes up to high for Bieber's performance tonight; after all it is his first MLB start since the surgery......but I can't help it, I'm expecting Cy Bieber. 😎

[Steeljays]

No Vlad today 

[sliderguy35]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Is there a simple "dummies guide to pitch shapes" someone could provide me?  We say his change went from 6 horizontal/16 vertical to 2 horizontal/12 vertical and that's "better"?

I always thought it was like there's an axis and that for horizontal, one side of the axis is positive and the other is negative and the #'s represent the # of inches (?) that it moves?  Am I way off base?  I'd love to learn more about this as it's an area I'm clueless in [insert joke here].

the numbers are referring to inches. i don't normally use the +/- but prefer to just denote arm/glove side if it's not obvious (generally all changeups will be arm-side).

which movement is "better" is highly dependent on pitch type and is often tied to velocity. less vertical break (more drop) on a changeup generally makes it more effective whereas less vert on a 4 seamer usually makes it perform "worse". more glove-side movement on a sweeper is usually good, but might not be worth it if you lose 5 mph of velocity to achieve it.

having high velocity allows pitches to still play up even if the shape isn't typically "good" (i.e paul skenes' 4-seamer). having higher velocity with "good" shape is when you get truly elite outlier pitches (i.e paul skenes' splinker is 94mph but still has almost 0 vertical break / lots of drop).

all these pitch shapes are cross-checked against historical results to see how effective each pitch shape is, which is how Stuff models are generated (which are what people nowadays use to determine if a pitch is "good" or not). bieber being able to throw a changeup with more drop but at the same velocity will almost certainly raise its Stuff grade, which in turn /should/ make it more effective based on similar pitch shapes historically.

that's the basics of it, there's a lot more nuance if you start to involve arm angles / extension / release points & how pitches are "expected" to move vs how they actually do. if you're interested in that kinda stuff, lance brozdowski has an awesome youtube channel. take a look and spend a few hours down that rabbit hole

[Brownie19]

I don't quite get why "less vert" is more drop (ie Skenes splinker with 0 vert).  0 vert "sounds" like it has no drop.  

[Laika]

Unfortunately there is no standard for pitch movement stuff. 

You kind of need to learn what each source means with their references. 

[sliderguy35]

18 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I don't quite get why "less vert" is more drop (ie Skenes splinker with 0 vert).  0 vert "sounds" like it has no drop.  

it comes down to gravity

everything drops no matter what because of gravity, vert is just the ball fighting against gravity

bigger vert = fighting more against gravity = less drop

0 vert = not fighting against gravity at all = more drop

negative vert = working with gravity = a lot more drop

the numbers just refer to a world without gravity. i.e if a pitch has 20 vert, it would rise 20 inches from the release point IF it was being thrown in a place where there was no gravity

[polar bear]

3 hours ago, BatFlip said:

I'm pumped! 

I don't want to get too hyped, but I'm still dreaming of an epic David Price type run by Bieber through the end of the season.

Hopefully his playoff performances will be way superior to Prices.

[Laika]

14 minutes ago, sliderguy35 said:

it comes down to gravity

everything drops no matter what because of gravity, vert is just the ball fighting against gravity

bigger vert = fighting more against gravity = less drop

0 vert = not fighting against gravity at all = more drop

negative vert = working with gravity = a lot more drop

the numbers just refer to a world without gravity. i.e if a pitch has 20 vert, it would rise 20 inches from the release point IF it was being thrown in a place where there was no gravity

caveat being not everywhere uses IVB

and IVB means different things in some places! I know on some sources they actually flip it around for changeups, so positive IVB means more drop. 

[Brownie19]

23 minutes ago, sliderguy35 said:

it comes down to gravity

everything drops no matter what because of gravity, vert is just the ball fighting against gravity

bigger vert = fighting more against gravity = less drop

0 vert = not fighting against gravity at all = more drop

negative vert = working with gravity = a lot more drop

the numbers just refer to a world without gravity. i.e if a pitch has 20 vert, it would rise 20 inches from the release point IF it was being thrown in a place where there was no gravity

That's confusing as sh*t, but thanks!

[sliderguy35]

17 minutes ago, Laika said:

caveat being not everywhere uses IVB

and IVB means different things in some places! I know on some sources they actually flip it around for changeups, so positive IVB means more drop. 

that's definitely how it used to be when i first got into reading about this stuff, but ever since they put IVB into Savant last year, i don't think i've read or seen any analysis that uses statcast vertical drop anymore.

positive ivb meaning drop is blasphemous 🤮 where did you see that??

[Laika]

1 minute ago, sliderguy35 said:

that's definitely how it used to be when i first got into reading about this stuff, but ever since they put IVB into Savant last year, i don't think i've read or seen any analysis that uses statcast vertical drop anymore.

check out what this article on FG from this year says about changeup IVB 

not sure if he's just wrong if they display it differently 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-more-it-stays-the-same-the-less-it-changeups/

"Changeups, like most other pitches, are designed to sink, so a positive IVB number means more relative drop. That -7.6 inches is relative to induced break for your average right-handed..."

[G-Snarls]

1 hour ago, Steeljays said:

No Vlad today 

f***

[Masterbather]

Imagine if Bieber absolutely shits the bed tonight. 

Damn that would be disheartening.

[glory]

If Vlad does the splits at 1B ever again, then he's suspended without pay. 

[BatFlip]

 

13 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

Imagine if Bieber absolutely shits the bed tonight. 

Damn that would be disheartening.

I think we all acknowledge the possibility of heartbreak, but if we didn't, we can always count on you to point it out.

 

[Governator]

Should we be concerned Vlad's off again?

[Laika]

Just now, Governator said:

Should we be concerned Vlad's off again?

Yes