Article: Can You Have Too Much Starting Pitching?

[Mike LeSage]

Shane Bieber pitched what is expected to be his final rehab start on Friday night in Buffalo. He threw 90 pitches (64 strikes) over seven innings, getting four strikeouts and giving up six hits, while earning a shutout win. Provided he recovers after the start as expected, his next stop should be joining the Blue Jays. 

Toronto is in first place in the American League and holds the tiebreaker against the majority of its closest rivals (NYY, BOS, DET, and SEA). They’ve gotten to this point behind a remarkably stable rotation of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, and Eric Lauer. In fact, those five have been so stable that the last win earned by a Jays starter that wasn’t one of those five was way back on April 18 when Bowden Francis got the win over Seattle. A game that happened so long ago that Anthony Santander and Alan Roden both had RBIs in the win.

The Jays didn’t acquire the former Cy Young winner to not have him start, so the question becomes how to integrate him into a winning team without upsetting the balance. One option would be to pivot to a six-man rotation. Bieber could slot in to pitch one of the upcoming games in Pittsburgh, and everyone else just gets bumped a day. This would provide an extra day of rest for one of the oldest pitching staffs in the league. Lauer, considered the baby of the rotation, is over 30 years old (as someone older than Scherzer, it kills me to think of Lauer as ‘old’, but we can at least agree that he’s older than the league average). Interestingly, Bieber is just three days older than Lauer and will help bring an injection of youth into the rotation. Before the season, when talk of a six-man rotation was floated, both Gausman and Bassitt spoke out against the idea, preferring the rhythm of a traditional five-man cycle. Both vets have also talked about ‘doing what’s best for the team’ (a much easier ask when the team is winning), with Bassitt most recently volunteering to pitch out of the ‘pen heading into the All-Star break if a situation warranted it. That scenario didn’t come to be necessary, and I would have to imagine Bassitt’s opinion on being a bullpen option becomes different the more permanent the move is talked about.

Suppose one of the starters is going to the ‘pen based on seniority; that’s undoubtedly Lauer. Of course, he’s fresh off being named Jays Centre Pitcher of the Month, so maybe he isn’t the most deserving based on results. If the Jays are going to go with a five-man rotation, the other option is to have one of the current starters turn into a piggy-back guy and essentially make a scheduled long relief appearance every fifth day. If this is the route the Jays take, the optimal way to decide it is by looking at the pitchers' splits as they face the same lineup multiple times. I looked at the opponents' batting average and FIP for each of Toronto’s current starters to see if there is an obvious candidate. I also included the MLB average and Shane Bieber’s career marks as reference.

The first thing that jumps out to me is the averages against Lauer. He’s giving up the most hits both the first time through the order and the third. Lauer’s BABIP (.367) also takes a big jump his third time through the order, so perhaps his struggles there have a hint of bad luck about them. Berríos’ numbers aren’t as glaring, but he’s also been worse than the league average on both his second and third passes through the order. I don’t want to drum up bad memories for anyone, but can we collectively envision a scenario where Berríos is limited to twice through the order before being lifted for a lefty? Maybe in a playoff elimination game? At least our chances of facing Minnesota are smaller this year. I’ll take a second to go on record here and say I supported the Berríos-Kikuchi move that year and think it was a case of the right methodology, but with the wrong results - but back to present day, before I really go on a tangent - a Berríos-Lauer pairing where they get four innings each every 5th day has some potential for success and would give the rest of the bullpen a built-in off day which will help keep them fresh for the other four starters.

We’re not getting out of here without talking about Scherzer’s massive FIP jump his third time through the order. Over his last six starts, Scherzer has looked the best we’ve seen from him in a Jays uniform, and he has delivered on exactly what we had hoped to see when he was signed. He has also surrendered eight home runs across those games, with six of those homers coming on his third time facing a batter, and they are the only earned runs he's surrendered. He’s got the resume, pedigree, and ‘future hall-of-famer’ title to be given more runway to work through those issues, but if the trend continues, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Scherzer get the Berríos Treatment come playoff time. On a recent episode of TSN’s Overdrive, guest and retired major league player, Eric Hosmer, presented a more extreme option: Mad Max, Blue Jays closer. Hosmer mentioned a concern about the workload on Scherzer’s arm and that a move to the ‘pen (especially for the postseason) could be a way to achieve maximum effort from Scherzer and take advantage of his ultra-competitive persona.

Using Bieber’s career numbers isn’t exactly fair statistically, but he also doesn’t have any 2025 numbers to work with yet. At the risk of muddying the table, I left the career numbers of the other pitchers out of it, but you can take my word for it: Bieber is (historically) the best of the bunch. Once his rehab is behind him and he gets some major league innings under his belt this season, we could be in for something special.

No matter what you believe, Bieber is coming, and that means changes. 

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[John_Havok]

No.... but yes

[jaysblue]

Good problem to have. 

Much better than scrambling for arms in Buffalo haha. 

[Spanky__99]

They should certainly go to a 6 man. 

[Mike LeSage]

17 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

They should certainly go to a 6 man. 

That's the way I would lean too. Especially for the next 3-ish weeks. Maybe tighten it to 5 in mid-September for the run-in. Of course 1000 things could change between now and then.

[John_Havok]

4 minutes ago, Mike LeSage said:

That's the way I would lean too. Especially for the next 3-ish weeks. Maybe tighten it to 5 in mid-September for the run-in. Of course 1000 things could change between now and then.

Feels like that makes the most sense. We know Gausman, Bassitt and Berrios are good for innings, even if they aren't going to be top-of-the-rotation type innings (Gausman's recent starts have been fantastic though). We know Lauer can go, but... perhaps running into a bit of fatigue? Scherzer's last few starts have been excellent, but age and injury status will always be in the backs of everyone's minds. 

With the 2 off days though in the next 13 days, there might some real rust on some guys with a true 6-man rotation where guys might get 6 days off between starts. 

[Walter32]

Too much starting pitching is a positive dilemma currently. How about in the playoffs when the pitching rotation is likely to be reduced to 4. What are the alternatives? Using Bassitt, Berrios or Lauer in long relief can work but could you use two or more of them and not upset the bullpen. There is such a thing as not giving the pen enough work. 

Hopefully the good chemistry lends itself to all players chipping in for the good of the team. However, pro athletes have big egos and Schneider will have to be careful. He's done a wonderful job this year and is a player's manager for the most part and should be able to negotiate his way through this mostly positive problem. Of course if there is a serious injury to the pitching staff, management will likely look like geniuses.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

7 minutes ago, Walter32 said:

Too much starting pitching is a positive dilemma currently. How about in the playoffs when the pitching rotation is likely to be reduced to 4. What are the alternatives? Using Bassitt, Berrios or Lauer in long relief can work but could you use two or more of them and not upset the bullpen. There is such a thing as not giving the pen enough work. 

Hopefully the good chemistry lends itself to all players chipping in for the good of the team. However, pro athletes have big egos and Schneider will have to be careful. He's done a wonderful job this year and is a player's manager for the most part and should be able to negotiate his way through this mostly positive problem. Of course if there is a serious injury to the pitching staff, management will likely look like geniuses.  

Welcome to Jays Centre!

[BB17]

Lauer seems to be struggling a tiny bit lately so he seems the most obvious to move to the pen/long relief. I would probably have him come out of the pen because you may as well have him get used to it routine wise as he could be useful in the postseason going one time through a lineup to neutralize platoons.

Right not I have Bassit not making the playoff rotation as Berrios has higher upside and maybe you just have him only pitch 2 times through the order.

[Grant77]

Berrios looks fatigued to me. I get that he has a streak going, but I think that a phantom stint on the IL with arm soreness would greatly benefit him.

[John_Havok]

26 minutes ago, Grant77 said:

Berrios looks fatigued to me. I get that he has a streak going, but I think that a phantom stint on the IL with arm soreness would greatly benefit him.

Lauer I think is getting to the same place with fatigue. Last season between the KBO and minors he was 110 IP, he just crossed 112 IP this season now between AAA and the Jays. 

He could also benefit from an extra day off here and there perhaps

[Grant77]

3 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Lauer I think is getting to the same place with fatigue. Last season between the KBO and minors he was 110 IP, he just crossed 112 IP this season now between AAA and the Jays. 

He could also benefit from an extra day off here and there perhaps

I'm not opposed to a 6 man rotation for guys like Berrios, Bieber, and Lauer, but I'm concerned about how it will affect our two most likely playoff starters in Gausman and Scherzer. I'm doing what is best for those two guys, as well as Bieber.

[John_Havok]

Just now, Grant77 said:

I'm not opposed to a 6 man rotation for guys like Berrios, Bieber, and Lauer, but I'm concerned about how it will affect our two most likely playoff starters in Gausman and Scherzer. I'm doing what is best for those two guys, as well as Bieber.

Definitely. 

Its difficult to say there's a perfectly right answer when any changes that happen, the next starter could just have a bad game and suddenly "yup, obviously they made the wrong choice and should've done X or Y instead"

[Grant77]

Just to throw it out there, here's what I think will happen (not should happen). This is contingent on there being no injuries.

Lauer went over 100 pitches last night, which is a bit unusual. Berrios is going today. They seem like the most tired pitchers on our staff and it makes sense to piggyback them.

I think they go through the Pirates series on turn with Gausman, Scherzer, and Bassitt. After that there's an off day, so everyone gets an extra day of rest.

Then you open up the Marlins series with Bieber (send down Fluharty), Berrios/Lauer, and then Gausman again. You have Lauer available on full rest in the Bieber start as well, should things go south.

Then you have the Twins series and yet another off day after that. I mapped it out and with a 6 man rotation, someone would pitch on 8 day's rest, which is a little much.

 

[Mike LeSage]

1 hour ago, Walter32 said:

Too much starting pitching is a positive dilemma currently. How about in the playoffs when the pitching rotation is likely to be reduced to 4. What are the alternatives? Using Bassitt, Berrios or Lauer in long relief can work but could you use two or more of them and not upset the bullpen. There is such a thing as not giving the pen enough work. 

Hopefully the good chemistry lends itself to all players chipping in for the good of the team. However, pro athletes have big egos and Schneider will have to be careful. He's done a wonderful job this year and is a player's manager for the most part and should be able to negotiate his way through this mostly positive problem. Of course if there is a serious injury to the pitching staff, management will likely look like geniuses.  

I saw Schneider quoted as saying he had spoken with the vets about the possible changes coming (but that they hadn't committed to a path) and they were "all on board". He's the exact manager I'd want navigating this - so I'm on board too!

[Laika]

I think you keep your playoff SP mostly on turn. Bieber, Gausman, Scherzer.

Bassitt Berrios and Lauer get some non-traditional use from here on. Whether that is shorter outings, long relief, piggy backing, I'm not sure. But these guys may be tiring and they aren't starting a playoff game anyway, ideally, other than maybe one game in a 7 game series. Bassitt has been pretty bad in like 3 of his last 4 starts. 

[Eat My Shatkins]

Bassitt should not be starting any more road games from here on out. The guy has an ERA over 6 on the road this year. That should factor into any decisions now that they have 6 starters to work with.

[Nexii]

We're ranked 28th in starting pitching WAR this season :/. 

Feels like both Bassitt and Berrios really are tiring late in the season. 

Are there any good stats out there how much the extra day rest helps? Often wondered if that extra day is worth more than having to dilute the starting lineup

[Eat My Shatkins]

You got 4 old, tired, grizzled vets, a guy that pitched 100 innings in the KBO last year and a guy coming off TJS.

6 man rotation until the playoffs makes a lot of sense.