Article: TRADE: Blue Jays Give Up Top-100 Prospect Khal Stephen In Trade For Starter Shane Bieber

[Brandon Glick]

Per multiple reports, the Blue Jays have traded top prospect Khal Stephen to the Cleveland Guardians to acquire starting pitcher Shane Bieber.

The story on Bieber is well known at this point. The 2020 AL Cy Young winner was a force to be reckoned with from 2019-23, posting a 3.07 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 16.0 bWAR, and 28.4% strikeout rate in 716 1/3 innings. He was the heir apparent to Corey Kluber atop Cleveland's rotation, and then, disaster struck. After a dominant 12-inning cameo in 2024 (he struck out 20 of the 45 hitters he faced), he underwent Tommy John surgery, forcing him to miss the remainder of last year's campaign. He came into this season with the hopes of returning by the All-Star break, but a setback in early June all but cost him that chance.

Simply put, this is a huge, high-risk, high-reward swing by the Blue Jays at the trade deadline. When (if?) healthy, Bieber is as good as any pitcher in the league, and he could easily be starting Game 1 of the ALDS in a few months' time if all goes according to plan. However, this is a guy who hasn't pitched in the majors since April 2024, a hiatus that will stretch to 16 months come August.

The good news is that, because Bieber is on the 60-day IL, he won't require a 40-man roster spot immediately. Thus, the Jays can get creative with their roster maneuvering until Bieber is ready to return. The 30-year-old is owed the remainder of his $10 million salary this season, along with a $16 million player option for 2026 ($4 million buyout). At this point in time, it's expected that Bieber will pick up that option, though things could change in a hurry if he resembles even a fraction of his former self during the stretch run with the Blue Jays.

For those wondering, Bieber's current rehab assignment is going well. He's made three appearances totaling nine innings (he's increased his inning total by one every start as he builds back up to starter's workload), allowing two earned runs while striking out 16 and walking just one. If he pitches anything like that in Toronto, bully for the Blue Jays (but, also, he'll opt out).

Part of the huge risk in this deal is the price it took to acquire the Guardians' former ace. Khal Stephen, a 22-year-old who just reached Double-A, was dominating the minors this year across three levels to the tune of a 2.06 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 91 2/3 innings. He was recently ranked as a Top 100 prospect by multiple publications.

There's no way around it: this is a gargantuan price to pay for a guy who hasn't pitched in a year and a half. Stephen is at the peak of his value right now, which you could argue makes him a perfect candidate to trade (especially with all the other top pitching prospects in Toronto's system), but this has a chance to age very poorly for the Blue Jays, and not just because the Guardians are a pitching factory that can turn you or I into a MLB-caliber hurler.

Nevertheless, the Blue Jays are in position to go all-in, and this certainly qualifies. If Bieber's rehab assignment is to be believed, the Jays could mirror their 2015 success when they brought in former Cy Young winner David Price at the trade deadline.

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[Brock Beauchamp]

Whew, that is a steep price for a guy who I think is going to opt out after the season. I don't really like the value on this one.

[CJ-Freeway]

Is that a W for us, chat? 👀

[Angrioter]

One top prospect for 2 bierber's start 

[BTS]

This is a tremendous acquisition. Bieber is one of the few arms available who has ace upside. This team is 4 games ahead in the division, and will be playing playoff games and Bieber is the kind of guy who can win you playoff games. 

[Grant77]

That's an extremely high price for Bieber, but I'll reserve judgment until we see if he's healthy and if we get another reliever. Nobody really knows what to expect.

[jaysblue]

2 minutes ago, BTS said:

This is a tremendous acquisition. Bieber is one of the few arms available who has ace upside. This team is 4 games ahead in the division, and will be playing playoff games and Bieber is the kind of guy who can win you playoff games. 

I suggested Bieber last week as an alternative for a top of the rotation arm. If he’s healthy, he’s an ace! 

[glory]

Yeah I think this is a great move. Risky but much needed risk. The Jays have a rotation full of #3-4’s. They didn’t need another one or a swing man, they needed a SP who could start Game 1 of a playoff round without looking out of place. If the price for anything resembling that in this market (Ryan, Alcantara) was too high, then this was the move to make, IMO. No doubt that he’s opting out unless he gets hurt again, but even if best case it’s a rental, it’s still the type of move that shifts the ceiling of this team (potentially). 

[G-Snarls]

Any chance they can pull of a Berrios type contract extension?!

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, G-Snarls said:

Any chance they can pull of a Berrios type contract extension?!

Do they want to? I'd be really uncomfortable offering Bieber more years. He's kind of the anti-Berrios.

[Terminator]

That's a lot for 6 weeks of Bieber but that's the price you pay for an SP1 come playoff time.

Bieber and Gausman form a solid 1-2 punch to go along with our defense, lineup and bullpen (I assume we'll add another reliever). That team can make some noise.

[G-Snarls]

7 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Do they want to? I'd be really uncomfortable offering Bieber more years. He's kind of the anti-Berrios.

Not so much the number of years but just doing it immediately even if it's only much shorter. 

[mphenhef]

I would be quite happy if I heard they gave him a million or two to pick up the option for next year early.  I can't imagine it happened though.

[Brownie19]

2 minutes ago, mphenhef said:

I would be quite happy if I heard they gave him a million or two to pick up the option for next year early.  I can't imagine it happened though.

Yeah - I think that's best case scenario....that somehow there's a clause or an agreement for him to pick up the option.  Unlikely though and frankly I don't care that much.  The focus is to make some noise in the playoffs this year.

[BTS]

If the team likes the way his stuff looks, there's no reason not to explore a long-term extension with him. 

[G-Snarls]

3 minutes ago, BTS said:

If the team likes the way his stuff looks, there's no reason not to explore a long-term extension with him. 

You'd just like to know he'll be back next year at least 

[Terminator]

It's easy to trust the team on giving up Stephen.

They've moved Hoglund, SWR, etc. and don't regret moving any of them. Stephen probably maxes out at as an SP4.

[Laika]

KhalSimienWoodsWatts-Brown-RicharStephen 

[Brock Beauchamp]

12 minutes ago, G-Snarls said:

Not so much the number of years but just doing it immediately even if it's only much shorter. 

I don't really see the upside for Bieber, though. He has a player option for 2026. If he wants a bounceback season to raise value, he already has it.

[Terminator]

For a big market team, backend SPs aren't really worth that much. Their biggest worth is probably providing depth while they have options.

[Terminator]

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't really see the upside for Bieber, though. He has a player option for 2026. If he wants a bounceback season to raise value, he already has it.

Yeah he is in the perfect spot. If he comes out and dominates in the playoffs he will get PAID.

If he doesn't he can lock in the player option and try to rebuild value again.

In order to extend him we'd really need to sweeten the deal.

[glory]

10 minutes ago, BTS said:

If the team likes the way his stuff looks, there's no reason not to explore a long-term extension with him. 

Yeah one thing the Jays have done with this front office in recent years is spend money. If there’s mutual interest in a long term commitment, and Bieber looks like he’s back performance/stuff-wise, then I think the Jays would have a strong chance to get it done. Takes two to tango though. 

[Laika]

Even if he pitches well he is an extension candidate 

The Jays can afford him

[Terminator]

Good chance that the Jays added the top starter moved at the trade deadline and they did it for one 50FV prospect

[BTS]

1 minute ago, Laika said:

Even if he pitches well he is an extension candidate 

The Jays can afford him

It would fit their MO. They’ve shown a willingness and ability to spend significant money on 30+ year old SPs who might not be at the very top of the market. They’ve shown also seem to like guys with great command/pitchability, even if the stuff is more good than front line. 
 

They also have Bassitt and Scherzer off the books and then Gausman after next year. 
 

I think they’d love to get him signed at like 6/150 or something if the stuff is there. 

[Terminator]

Jays still have Yesavage, Rojas, King, Stanifer and Tiedemann.

[Laika]

1 minute ago, BTS said:

It would fit their MO. They’ve shown a willingness and ability to spend significant money on 30+ year old SPs who might not be at the very top of the market. They’ve shown also seem to like guys with great command/pitchability, even if the stuff is more good than front line. 
 

They also have Bassitt and Scherzer off the books and then Gausman after next year. 
 

I think they’d love to get him signed at like 6/150 or something if the stuff is there. 

Doubt they'd have to even go that high he might be more of a 4/$80 dude

[Laika]

If everyone stays healthy and nobody is traded, I wonder if they just go with a 6 man rotation from here on.

[BTS]

Just now, Laika said:

Doubt they'd have to even go that high he might be more of a 4/$80 dude

Maybe. If he’s actually sitting 94 like reports are suggesting and looks great down the stretch I think he’ll get a surprisingly big contract 

[Laika]

Just now, BTS said:

Maybe. If he’s actually sitting 94 like reports are suggesting and looks great down the stretch I think he’ll get a surprisingly big contract 

I'm still scratching my head at what Jack Flaherty settled for last offseason.

No matter what Bieber does he's going to have a tiny sample platform year so I can't see 6 years