2025 Trade Deadline

[Laika]

Teams rarely trade a player like Varland. Cheap, good, controllable for a long time. 

Teams also rarely want to pay for guys like Alan Roden (they like to acquire them for free). Pop up prospect from last year who looked like garbage in the MLB, has fringe tools, isn't young. 

So a lot of this is just timing and striking on something while you can. The trade market isn't a 24/7 buffet. 

The Jays did not really have a Mick Abel, or a Taj Bradley to trade (viable 2026 MLB SP). They probably didn't even have a Jesus Rodriguez or a Jesus Baez or a Rafael Flores or Eduardo Tait to be honest (a lot of the Jays closer to MLB bats are corner OF profiles). Unless the other team is in love with Josh Kasevich???

They probably could have acquired Maton, Coulombe, Shelby Miller, Brock Stewart, Finnegan, Sewald, Kittredge... guys like that instead of Seranthony or Varland. If any of them float your boat more. 

When you take a step back and think about what the Jays had to sell you can understand why it may have been hard for them to land the top RP on the market like Bednar, Helsley. They don't have an expendable up-the-middle bat in AA to trade. They don't have a lot of plug and play SP prospects (most of the SP on the rise are lower minors). How much do these other teams even value an arm like Gage Stanifer for example? 

Maybe they pushed Rojas a bit in recent weeks (promotions) to kind of turn him into a more viable looking trade chip. 

[jmomcc]

Teams would trade pop up relievers no problem if you pay them enough. Its obviously something you sell. If we are bad, i'd sell braydon fisher in a heartbeat. 

[metafour]

47 minutes ago, BB17 said:

I think the issue some people have is that you are buying Varland at peak value.

But this argument makes doesn't make sense. If this is the first year where he has been good and he has years of control left, how do you conclude that this is his "peak value"? This is his first season as a full-time reliever, so its not like he has history of being a BAD reliever. There is no reason to believe that this isn't simply his new base-line of performance, with it being clearly possible that he actually improves over the next few years.

By the way, I got curious and took a look at his game-logs from last season because he spent ~half the season as a starter and then switched permanently to the bullpen:

He was a starter from the beginning of the season till August 14th:

6.14 ERA, 5.84 FIP, 2.21 HR/9, 7.85 K/9, 2.70 BB/9 in 36.2 IP

He started relieving in September and immediately had 3 really bad outings:

25.31 ERA, 7.48 FIP, 3.38 HR/9, 10.13 K/9, 5.06 BB/9 in 5.1 IP

Then he flipped a switch and closed the season with the following 5 relief outings:

2.35 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 1.17 HR/9, 12.91 K/9, 2.35 BB/9 in 7.2 IP

Even in 2023 when he pitched some relief outings late in the season in September, he posted the following:

1.50 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 1.50 HR/9, 12.75 K/9, 0.75 BB/9 in 12.0 IP

 

So really, his performance as a reliever has generally ALWAYS been strong or very good even before this season. His overall numbers just look bad in 2023 and 2024 because of his appearances as a starter. Sure the samples are small, but apart from those 5.1 innings last season immediately after they moved him to the bullpen (where I assume he was also playing with his stuff and pitch-mix) he had ~20 innings of elite reliever performance in 2023 and 2024.

[Laika]

24 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

Teams would trade pop up relievers no problem if you pay them enough. Its obviously something you sell. If we are bad, i'd sell braydon fisher in a heartbeat. 

Even that characterization is just the worst possible lens for Varland. 

Fisher is a pop up reliever because he has never started and never been able to throw strikes until 2025 when it clicked. 

Varland logged tons of SP innings and got tons of strikeouts for years, until he was converted to the pen. I don't call that a "pop up reliever". You would expect a guy with his K-BB numbers in AA and AAA as a SP, and his stuff, to be a good reliever. 

Like, there is analysis of this trade where Toronto was just like "how the f*** is this guy even available? we have loved him for years" 

[jmomcc]

11 minutes ago, Laika said:

Even that characterization is just the worst possible lens for Varland. 

Fisher is a pop up reliever because he has never started and never been able to throw strikes until 2025 when it clicked. 

Varland logged tons of SP innings and got tons of strikeouts for years, until he was converted to the pen. I don't call that a "pop up reliever". You would expect a guy with his K-BB numbers in AA and AAA as a SP, and his stuff, to be a good reliever. 

Like, there is analysis of this trade where Toronto was just like "how the f*** is this guy even available? we have loved him for years" 

That's exactly Atkin's analysis from listening to the interviews. 

That's a coin with two sides. Either it means you pay more than market price or it means you get guys you absolutely love and think the market incorrectly undervalues. 

Time will tell which it is. 

[Brownie19]

If Varland stayed in Minnesota and repeated his dominance in 2026, I suspect the price to acquire him would have skyrocketed.  

The Jays obviously like Varland and believe in the talent.  He's been extremely good this year, which helps us now and he has a good chance of being quite valuable for us at the league minimum for years to come.  This provides financial flexibility to address other weaknesses.

Obviously this trade "could" backfire.  All trades could.  I think the concerns are unnecessary and I'm surprised there's still this much conversation about him.

[Laika]

7 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

If Varland stayed in Minnesota and repeated his dominance in 2026, I suspect the price to acquire him would have skyrocketed.  

The Jays obviously like Varland and believe in the talent.  He's been extremely good this year, which helps us now and he has a good chance of being quite valuable for us at the league minimum for years to come.  This provides financial flexibility to address other weaknesses.

Obviously this trade "could" backfire.  All trades could.  I think the concerns are unnecessary and I'm surprised there's still this much conversation about him.

it is literally one poster baiting all of us 

[John_Havok]

32 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

If Varland stayed in Minnesota and repeated his dominance in 2026, I suspect the price to acquire him would have skyrocketed.  

The Jays obviously like Varland and believe in the talent.  He's been extremely good this year, which helps us now and he has a good chance of being quite valuable for us at the league minimum for years to come.  This provides financial flexibility to address other weaknesses.

Obviously this trade "could" backfire.  All trades could.  I think the concerns are unnecessary and I'm surprised there's still this much conversation about him.

They had to take Ty France.... I'd say it's halfway to backfiring already. 

I can find absolutely zero reason for France to be on this roster. 

[jmomcc]

45 minutes ago, Laika said:

it is literally one poster baiting all of us 

If you think someone is genuinely baiting you, just don't respond. 

[jmomcc]

46 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

If Varland stayed in Minnesota and repeated his dominance in 2026, I suspect the price to acquire him would have skyrocketed.  

The Jays obviously like Varland and believe in the talent.  He's been extremely good this year, which helps us now and he has a good chance of being quite valuable for us at the league minimum for years to come.  This provides financial flexibility to address other weaknesses.

Obviously this trade "could" backfire.  All trades could.  I think the concerns are unnecessary and I'm surprised there's still this much conversation about him.

Financial flexibility should mean less to us as we have more money. 

It should matter more to baltimore and tampa and less than us. Making prospects worth more to us and less to them. 

I have no idea if the actual trade will win or lose. Like we lost the otto lopez trade obviously but that's not something you can really ding the front office over. I don't like the thought process behind the trade. That's all. 
 

I promise to stop talking about it though when everyone else does. 

[John_Havok]

12 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

Financial flexibility should mean less to us as we have more money. 

It should matter more to baltimore and tampa and less than us. Making prospects worth more to us and less to them. 

I have no idea if the actual trade will win or lose. Like we lost the otto lopez trade obviously but that's not something you can really ding the front office over. I don't like the thought process behind the trade. That's all. 
 

I promise to stop talking about it though when everyone else does. 

I dont see how the Jays lost the Otto Lopez trade. They traded him to San Francisco for cash. He proceeded to suck in San Francicso and was DFA by them and picked up by Miami as a waiver claim. 

If anything, San Francisco lost the Lopez deal. 

[jmomcc]

1 minute ago, John_Havok said:

I dont see how the Jays lost the Otto Lopez trade. They traded him to San Francisco for cash. He proceeded to suck in San Francicso and was DFA by them and picked up by Miami as a waiver claim. 

If anything, San Francisco lost the Lopez deal. 

We traded someone who went on to have a 2.5 win season the next year for cash considerations. That's a loss. 
 

The win/loss paradigm is dumb in trades generally but it is what it is. 

 

[John_Havok]

5 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

We traded someone who went on to have a 2.5 win season the next year for cash considerations. That's a loss. 
 

The win/loss paradigm is dumb in trades generally but it is what it is. 

 

I dont see the sense in worrying about Otto Lopez. Dude was superflous on the Jays roster, was coming back from injury, and they needed a spot for Yariel. 

If there's a player to never worry about "losing" a trade over, it would be Otto Lopez. 

[jmomcc]

7 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

I dont see the sense in worrying about Otto Lopez. Dude was superflous on the Jays roster, was coming back from injury, and they needed a spot for Yariel. 

If there's a player to never worry about "losing" a trade over, it would be Otto Lopez. 

I'm not worried about losing that trade at all. 

[John_Havok]

4 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

I'm not worried about losing that trade at all. 

Yeah for sure, didn't mean to suggest that you, personally, were worried about it. Just anyone... in general. 

[Vancouverite]

51 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

They had to take Ty France.... I'd say it's halfway to backfiring already. 

I can find absolutely zero reason for France to be on this roster. 

Ty France won't be on this roster once Jays get healthy, we're still down Gimenez, Springer,  and Santander.

He's just a vet stop-gap and he's salary is almost league min. 

[metafour]

2 hours ago, John_Havok said:

They had to take Ty France.... I'd say it's halfway to backfiring already. 

I can find absolutely zero reason for France to be on this roster. 

Fun fact; Ty France actually has a higher xwOBA than Davis Schnieder.

[BB17]

4 hours ago, metafour said:

Fun fact; Ty France actually has a higher xwOBA than Davis Schnieder.

Yeah but at least Schneider you can play in LF and throw out at 2B if you have to. The added position flexibility makes him a much better fit for the roster.

[jmomcc]

He's also solidly our 4th best hitter against lefties on the team. And yea, on those days he won't clog the DH. 

[BB17]

He's not even bad against RHP either. Good chance he's better than Loperfido honestly.

[rydermike]

On 8/5/2025 at 6:29 PM, Vancouverite said:

Ty France won't be on this roster once Jays get healthy, we're still down Gimenez, Springer,  and Santander.

He's just a vet stop-gap and he's salary is almost league min. 

He read your post and got offended and out up a 4-4 today lol

[John_Havok]

25 minutes ago, rydermike said:

He read your post and got offended and out up a 4-4 today lol

And 2 HBP. Perfect day really. Played some good D too

[John_Havok]

On 8/5/2025 at 4:29 PM, Vancouverite said:

Ty France won't be on this roster once Jays get healthy, we're still down Gimenez, Springer,  and Santander.

He's just a vet stop-gap and he's salary is almost league min. 

Even excluding todays game, Buddy slapnuts will be turfed first. France is the DFA when/if Santander ever makes it back this season

 

[Vancouverite]

2 hours ago, John_Havok said:

Even excluding todays game, Buddy slapnuts will be turfed first. France is the DFA when/if Santander ever makes it back this season

 

Buddy is gone once Gimenez is back most likely Friday

Who's gone when Springers back though? It'll be one of lukes, loperfido, France or Straw

Tough decision. Might be loperfido just because of options even though he's the guy that probably should get most of the ABs out of that group of 4 

If Santander is back we'll potentially have to part with 2 of the 4.

Been a while since we've had this kind of depth!

[Vancouverite]

3 hours ago, rydermike said:

He read your post and got offended and out up a 4-4 today lol

He was a beast. Pops seems to be working some magic this year with hitters

We're top 5 or around there in runs scored this year which i found very surprising 

[Masterbather]

5 hours ago, Vancouverite said:

He was a beast. Pops seems to be working some magic this year with hitters

We're top 5 or around there in runs scored this year which i found very surprising 

I've been watching the climb up the run scored list for a while, my dream was to eventually pass the Yankees. At one point we were around 90 runs behind them, but we've been steadily closing the gap and I felt that if we can get healthy in time we had a chance.

This series in Colorado catapulted us up the charts to the point where we're not only on the Yankees' ass, we even have a chance to  finish the season number one.

 

[L54]

1 hour ago, Masterbather said:

I've been watching the climb up the run scored list for a while, my dream was to eventually pass the Yankees. At one point we were around 90 runs behind them, but we've been steadily closing the gap and I felt that if we can get healthy in time we had a chance.

This series in Colorado catapulted us up the charts to the point where we're not only on the Yankees' ass, we even have a chance to  finish the season number one.

 

Wow 

The Toronto Blue Jays are fourth in team wRC+ at 112 after this series

[Laika]

16 minutes ago, L54 said:

Wow 

The Toronto Blue Jays are fourth in team wRC+ at 112 after this series

Not sure that number even includes yesterday's game yet 

[Brownie19]

3 hours ago, Laika said:

Not sure that number even includes yesterday's game yet 

It didn't.  We're now at a team wRC+ of 114, tied for 2nd in baseball, just one tick behind the Yankees.  We are 5th in baseball in runs scored and #1 in all of MLB in positional player WAR.  On the offensive side of the ball, we are elite.

[Laika]

Toronto is hitting .270 as a team 

Super elite in this era. 

Next best team is .258. The league hits .246.