Article: The Case for an Uncooked George Springer

[Davy Andrews]

The overall numbers aren't pretty, but George Springer still has the tools to be a productive hitter, even if he's no longer a star.

In 2024, George Springer slashed .220/.303/.371, good for 95 wRC+. His average exit velocity was 87.5 mph, his xwOBA was .324, and according to FanGraphs, he was worth 1.2 WAR. I threw all those numbers at you for a reason: every one of those numbers was the lowest of Springer’s entire career. In other words, during his age-34 season, Springer very much played like the game had passed him by. He’s been trending down for a while now. In 2019, he ran a 155 wRC+, which meant that he was 55% better than the average hitter. In every subsequent season, his wRC+ has steadily gotten worse.

That’s not what you want to see. The bottom has dropped out over the last two years, and 2024 marked the first time in his entire career that Springer was below average at the plate. According to Statcast’s Fielding Runs Value, he was also worth -3 runs as a defender, also the worst mark of his career. So that’s the preamble: Springer is on the downslope of his career, and with two years left on his deal, it’s starting to look like a free fall. Now we’re going to look at some signs for optimism.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not about to argue that Springer can turn back into the star he once was, because that’s not happening. All the same, there’s a big difference from the 1.8 fWAR he put up in 2023 and his 1.2 in 2024. It’s the difference between an average player and a player who’s actively hurting his team. At this point, his defense likely is what it is, but Springer is still capable of putting up solid offensive numbers.

Let’s start with batted ball luck. In 2024, Springer ran a .245 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Not only was that the worst mark of his career, it was the fourth-lowest mark of all qualified players. Springer has a career .294 BABIP, and the other only time he’s ever been below .286 was the short 2020 season. Obviously, Springer isn’t as fast as he once was, so he’s not going to beat out quite so many infield hits, but we still wouldn’t expect his BABIP to drop off that suddenly. Furthering the luck argument is the fact that springer also had a 26-point gap between his .324 wOBA and his .298 expected wOBA. That’s not an enormous difference, but it’s tied for the second-largest gap of Springer’s career (once again with the short 2020 season). According to DRC+, Baseball Prospectus’s overall offensive metric that judges player not just on outcomes but on their deserved outcomes, Springer was at 99 in 2024, just three points off his 2023 mark of 102. Springer really did seem to have some bad batted ball luck, and that doesn’t usually last forever. 

There’s also a bit of encouraging information when it comes to Springer’s contact quality. I know his average exit velocity was a career-low, but it’s not as if he was completely unable to hit the ball hard. His 90th-percentile exit velocity – which is a better measure of a player’s overall power –  was nearly identical to his 2023 mark.

When I look at Springer’s overall offensive marks, I don’t love that his whiff rate crept up, but what really jumps out at me is the way he’s shifted to hitting more balls on the ground and fewer balls to the pull side. I still think he’s been unlucky, but the graph below is part of the reason his BABIP cratered; he’s grounding out a ton, and he’s not hitting the ball to the small part of the ballpark.

Before the 2023 season, I wrote about how Springer had lived many lives as a hitter. When he was young and fast, he was able to perform well at the plate despite running a huge groundball rate. Then he got older, and he started optimizing his swing to pull the ball in the air, and it resulted in some of his best seasons. For a while he was very aggressive at the plate, and then he was patient again. My takeaway was that somehow, Springer always seemed to find a way to be an excellent hitter. However, in recent years, that has stopped. Springer is back to running one of the highest groundball rates in all of baseball, and without the speed or power of old, he’s no longer able to find success.

Springer has always played the game like there was no tomorrow. It is joyous to watch, but it is finally catching up to him. At this point in his career, he no longer has the physical tools to be a superstar, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s done yet. He’s still got a great eye, he’s still got enough power, and he still makes enough contact to run excellent walk and strikeout rates. If Springer can figure out how to drive the ball in the air like he did just a couple years ago, he can still be a productive right fielder. If he keeps hitting the ball on the ground, the graphs are only going to get worse.

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[saskjayfan]

George's athleticism on the basepaths and range and the diving catches he makes all seem to still be there.  He's a curious case.  I think there was some bad luck last year, but I also think he's not aggressive enough early in counts.  I think he's been late or taking some pitches he should be driving early in counts trying to get into deeper counts. It wouldn't surprise me if George put up a .780 to .800 OPS next year. I mean, this team desperately needs that.  I think a little bit more sell out, which would lead to higher K rates but potentially increase the power numbers might benefit Springer.

[Laika]

Hopefully he is doing intense bat speed training and he can at least hit for more power 

[BatFlip]

3 hours ago, Davy Andrews said:

Springer has always played the game like there was no tomorrow. It is joyous to watch, but it is finally catching up to him. At this point in his career, he no longer has the physical tools to be a superstar, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s done yet.

 

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That's well put.  Springer struggled last year, but I've always loved him as a player - he goes all out and he's always all smiles and support for teammates in the dugout.  

If he could just squeeze a 110 wRC+ out of his ancient bones (looks like this is actually the fangraphs projection), it'll make a world of difference for the lineup.

[wilko]

I'll take 30 doubles, 30 dingers, and 30 stolen bags please. 

[Laika]

His MaxEV dropoff last year was extreme and kind of sad. His average exit velo has also been trending down over time and he is now decidedly below MLB average there (20th percentile last year). 

 

Statcast Batting Statistics

 

Season	Age	Pitches	Batted Balls	Barrels	Barrel %	Barrel/PA	Exit Velocity	Max EV	Launch Angle	LA Sweet- Spot %	XBA	XSLG	WOBA	XWOBA	XWOBACON	HardHit%	K%	BB%
2015	25	1790	284	27	9.5	6.0	89.9	114.2	9.1	35.9	.273	.464	.360	.364	.439	41.5	24.2	11.1
2016	26	2932	467	49	10.5	6.6	89.4	115.9	8.8	32.1	.260	.471	.353	.359	.428	38.5	23.9	11.8
2017	27	2550	441	41	9.3	6.5	89.2	114.6	9.3	31.1	.288	.528	.376	.384	.429	43.2	17.7	10.2
2018	28	2501	425	38	8.9	6.2	88.6	114.7	9.5	30.1	.253	.459	.340	.346	.389	37.4	19.8	10.4
2019	29	2299	370	52	14.1	9.4	89.8	114.3	10.5	31.6	.283	.578	.400	.400	.468	44.8	20.3	12.1
2020	30	821	153	19	12.4	8.6	88.7	115.0	18.3	35.3	.294	.569	.379	.405	.450	42.5	17.1	10.8
2021	31	1328	221	34	15.4	9.9	89.4	116.4	19.0	37.1	.248	.507	.381	.361	.430	41.6	23.1	10.8
2022	32	2175	418	35	8.4	6.0	88.7	113.6	13.9	31.8	.265	.437	.352	.342	.374	42.3	17.2	9.3
2023	33	2528	491	38	7.7	5.6	88.3	115.9	12.0	32.2	.264	.422	.320	.332	.369	39.9	18.3	8.8
2024	34	2304	432	40	9.3	6.5	87.5	110.6	9.4	29.2	.244	.402	.298	.322	.351	37.4	18.7	9.8
Player		21228	3702	373	10.1	6.9	88.9	116.4	11.2	32.1	.265	.474	.352	.358	.406	40.6	20.0	10.4
MLB					7.0	4.8	88.5	122.4	12.3	33.2	.245	.405	.316	.315	.368	36.5	22.2	8.4

 

 

[Terminator]

If he could merely get results to match the .323 xwOBA we could live with that.

The defense is holding and his baserunning is still surprisingly elite-ish.

He needs to move down in the lineup though. Ideally, we'd have enough good hitters to bat him 6th.

[Terminator]

On another note I am pleasantly surprised at how good the articles have been lmao

I was expecting some low quality clickbait but we've been getting some good statistical analysis.

Of course I didn't expect Davy to write here but the other writers have been great too

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, BatFlip said:

That's well put.  Springer struggled last year, but I've always loved him as a player - he goes all out and he's always all smiles and support for teammates in the dugout. 

If you don't like Springer the ball player, you don't like baseball.  

[Spanky99]

2 hours ago, Laika said:

His MaxEV dropoff last year was extreme and kind of sad. His average exit velo has also been trending down over time and he is now decidedly below MLB average there (20th percentile last year). 

 

Statcast Batting Statistics

 

Season	Age	Pitches	Batted Balls	Barrels	Barrel %	Barrel/PA	Exit Velocity	Max EV	Launch Angle	LA Sweet- Spot %	XBA	XSLG	WOBA	XWOBA	XWOBACON	HardHit%	K%	BB%
2015	25	1790	284	27	9.5	6.0	89.9	114.2	9.1	35.9	.273	.464	.360	.364	.439	41.5	24.2	11.1
2016	26	2932	467	49	10.5	6.6	89.4	115.9	8.8	32.1	.260	.471	.353	.359	.428	38.5	23.9	11.8
2017	27	2550	441	41	9.3	6.5	89.2	114.6	9.3	31.1	.288	.528	.376	.384	.429	43.2	17.7	10.2
2018	28	2501	425	38	8.9	6.2	88.6	114.7	9.5	30.1	.253	.459	.340	.346	.389	37.4	19.8	10.4
2019	29	2299	370	52	14.1	9.4	89.8	114.3	10.5	31.6	.283	.578	.400	.400	.468	44.8	20.3	12.1
2020	30	821	153	19	12.4	8.6	88.7	115.0	18.3	35.3	.294	.569	.379	.405	.450	42.5	17.1	10.8
2021	31	1328	221	34	15.4	9.9	89.4	116.4	19.0	37.1	.248	.507	.381	.361	.430	41.6	23.1	10.8
2022	32	2175	418	35	8.4	6.0	88.7	113.6	13.9	31.8	.265	.437	.352	.342	.374	42.3	17.2	9.3
2023	33	2528	491	38	7.7	5.6	88.3	115.9	12.0	32.2	.264	.422	.320	.332	.369	39.9	18.3	8.8
2024	34	2304	432	40	9.3	6.5	87.5	110.6	9.4	29.2	.244	.402	.298	.322	.351	37.4	18.7	9.8
Player		21228	3702	373	10.1	6.9	88.9	116.4	11.2	32.1	.265	.474	.352	.358	.406	40.6	20.0	10.4
MLB					7.0	4.8	88.5	122.4	12.3	33.2	.245	.405	.316	.315	.368	36.5	22.2	8.4

 

 

How'd you do that, post the graph?

 

[Laika]

1 minute ago, Spanky99 said:

How'd you do that, post the graph?

 

just copy and paste the table 

amazing stuff 

[max silver]

I've made the observation that George seems to have maintained a lot of his athleticism in the field and on the bases, but despite still possessing above average swing speeds he's lost a huge chunk of his power output at the plate. He's gone from a player who was solidly able to outproduce his expected statistics year over year to one who has been underproducing the last few seasons as compared to xwOBA. I've presented a theory previously that the post season collision and subsequent shoulder surgery could be behind the sudden loss of ability to pull the ball in the air, but perhaps it's simply a case of slowing reflexes and more of a timing related issue. I think that it could be beneficial to make some sort of adjustment to either shorten his swing a tad to allow him to square up the ball more effectively, use a lighter bat if possible or to start simply cheating a little at the plate and starting his swing a little bit sooner. 

[Spanky99]

1 minute ago, Laika said:

just copy and paste the table 

amazing stuff 

Nice... 😎

[Spanky99]

2 hours ago, BatFlip said:

That's well put.  Springer struggled last year, but I've always loved him as a player - he goes all out and he's always all smiles and support for teammates in the dugout.  

If he could just squeeze a 110 wRC+ out of his ancient bones (looks like this is actually the fangraphs projection), it'll make a world of difference for the lineup.

Yes, a 2 win Springer would be gravy this year, and might actually make him moveable at the deadline.

[Spanky99]

5 hours ago, saskjayfan said:

George's athleticism on the basepaths and range and the diving catches he makes all seem to still be there.  He's a curious case.  I think there was some bad luck last year, but I also think he's not aggressive enough early in counts.  I think he's been late or taking some pitches he should be driving early in counts trying to get into deeper counts. It wouldn't surprise me if George put up a .780 to .800 OPS next year. I mean, this team desperately needs that.  I think a little bit more sell out, which would lead to higher K rates but potentially increase the power numbers might benefit Springer.

Did you read the article, mate? 😅

[Jays24]

1 hour ago, Terminator said:

If he could merely get results to match the .323 xwOBA we could live with that.

The defense is holding and his baserunning is still surprisingly elite-ish.

He needs to move down in the lineup though. Ideally, we'd have enough good hitters to bat him 6th.

Agreed but we'd need to add 3 bats for him to be batting 6th.  I've been hoping to add 2 bats so Springer can bat 5th but even that might be a stretch.  

[Laika]

If you sort the probable current starters by ZiPS OPS+ Springer should already be hitting 7th. 

1. Vlad
2. Bo
3. Wagner (DH)
4. Schneider/Roden (LF)
5. Kirk
6. Gimenez 
7. Springer
8. Varsho 
9. Clement 
 

[Laika]

Also, ZiPS hates Clement. 

[Abomination]

3 minutes ago, Laika said:

If you sort the probable current starters by ZiPS OPS+ Springer should already be hitting 7th. 

1. Vlad
2. Bo
3. Wagner (DH)
4. Schneider/Roden (LF)
5. Kirk
6. Gimenez 
7. Springer
8. Varsho 
9. Clement 
 

Oh God that's depressing to see typed out.

[Spanky99]

2 minutes ago, Laika said:

Also, ZiPS hates Clement. 

Now do Steamer. 😉

[Laika]

1 minute ago, Abomination said:

Oh God that's depressing to see typed out.

Yes. Honestly Springer is just part of the glut of guys who COULD be league average but probably won't be. Toronto has so many of them. Chucky Macadooooo has better 80th and 20th percentile projections than George, per ZiPS! 

 

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles

Player	80th BA	80th OBP	80th SLG	80th OPS+	80th WAR	20th BA	20th OBP	20th SLG	20th OPS+	20th WAR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	.317	.399	.554	165	5.5	.267	.348	.455	127	2.5
Andrés Giménez	.293	.353	.438	123	5.1	.242	.302	.359	88	2.5
Alejandro Kirk	.293	.367	.430	126	4.0	.234	.309	.333	86	2.0
Bo Bichette	.309	.353	.482	133	4.1	.257	.299	.387	92	1.4
Daulton Varsho	.246	.320	.475	121	3.8	.200	.272	.372	83	1.3
Will Wagner	.298	.376	.435	129	3.0	.240	.318	.346	89	0.9
Davis Schneider	.242	.343	.470	125	3.1	.191	.292	.355	86	0.8
Addison Barger	.268	.338	.460	123	2.8	.220	.288	.364	85	0.6
Leo Jiménez	.257	.357	.404	114	2.5	.207	.311	.320	80	0.8
Charles McAdoo	.268	.331	.443	117	2.8	.217	.284	.348	80	0.6
Michael Stefanic	.304	.380	.394	120	2.4	.249	.327	.325	88	0.8
Alan Roden	.280	.362	.432	124	2.7	.229	.312	.343	87	0.4
Ernie Clement	.287	.317	.441	112	2.5	.229	.257	.348	70	0.4
George Springer	.268	.341	.442	119	2.7	.213	.290	.348	83	0.3
Jonatan Clase	.242	.315	.412	102	2.5	.194	.267	.320	68	0.3
Nathan Lukes	.300	.355	.436	123	2.2	.236	.298	.344	82	0.4
Joey Loperfido	.257	.325	.453	119	2.5	.204	.271	.353	77	0.1

[Davy Andrews]

4 hours ago, Laika said:

His MaxEV dropoff last year was extreme and kind of sad. His average exit velo has also been trending down over time and he is now decidedly below MLB average there (20th percentile last year). 

 

Statcast Batting Statistics

 

Season	Age	Pitches	Batted Balls	Barrels	Barrel %	Barrel/PA	Exit Velocity	Max EV	Launch Angle	LA Sweet- Spot %	XBA	XSLG	WOBA	XWOBA	XWOBACON	HardHit%	K%	BB%
2015	25	1790	284	27	9.5	6.0	89.9	114.2	9.1	35.9	.273	.464	.360	.364	.439	41.5	24.2	11.1
2016	26	2932	467	49	10.5	6.6	89.4	115.9	8.8	32.1	.260	.471	.353	.359	.428	38.5	23.9	11.8
2017	27	2550	441	41	9.3	6.5	89.2	114.6	9.3	31.1	.288	.528	.376	.384	.429	43.2	17.7	10.2
2018	28	2501	425	38	8.9	6.2	88.6	114.7	9.5	30.1	.253	.459	.340	.346	.389	37.4	19.8	10.4
2019	29	2299	370	52	14.1	9.4	89.8	114.3	10.5	31.6	.283	.578	.400	.400	.468	44.8	20.3	12.1
2020	30	821	153	19	12.4	8.6	88.7	115.0	18.3	35.3	.294	.569	.379	.405	.450	42.5	17.1	10.8
2021	31	1328	221	34	15.4	9.9	89.4	116.4	19.0	37.1	.248	.507	.381	.361	.430	41.6	23.1	10.8
2022	32	2175	418	35	8.4	6.0	88.7	113.6	13.9	31.8	.265	.437	.352	.342	.374	42.3	17.2	9.3
2023	33	2528	491	38	7.7	5.6	88.3	115.9	12.0	32.2	.264	.422	.320	.332	.369	39.9	18.3	8.8
2024	34	2304	432	40	9.3	6.5	87.5	110.6	9.4	29.2	.244	.402	.298	.322	.351	37.4	18.7	9.8
Player		21228	3702	373	10.1	6.9	88.9	116.4	11.2	32.1	.265	.474	.352	.358	.406	40.6	20.0	10.4
MLB					7.0	4.8	88.5	122.4	12.3	33.2	.245	.405	.316	.315	.368	36.5	22.2	8.4

 

 

I noticed this too and wasn't quite sure what to make of it. It's really odd and I will definitely be keeping an eye on it going forward.

[Carlos Danger]

It took 10 posts for someone to bring up Springer's location in the batting order.

The Blue Jays saw the metrics with Springer to start the season last year but failed to adapt quickly enough and move him down in the batting order.  This was due to a lack of Team first approach and internal politics giving deference to the name on the back of the jersey and the big contract.

One of the biggest reasons last season for the Jays getting in a hole to start the season was having one of the worst hitters on the team and even the league at the time getting the most amount of bats per game.

This led to the consecutive innings without a run scored in the 1st inning record and contributed to the bullpen pressures and resultant implosions.

John has admitted this and it took waaaayy too fnnn long for the Jays to drop Springer down in the batting order and out of the lead off spot. We have seen other teams drop their stars who weren't performing down in the batting order because they had more cajones and weren't scared about wining or " needing approval" from their biggest FA ever.

If John didn't have balls to do it, it should have come from the top sooner or vice versa.

Springer had his healthiest season as a Blue Jay yet regressed. Springer is in the regression glide path and his value to this team is solely going to be correlated to him hitting 6 or 7th, NOT lead-off.

Value as a 6-7 guy who plays solid D.

Like an anvil to this team if hitting leadoff...

 

 

[BB17]

Yeah I agree I think Springer would be better off selling out for more power even if the strikeouts rise. It certainly seemed like their was a change last year to hitting the ball on the ground the other way more often.

The lineup needs more power anyways given they already have a lot of lower K/low power guys like Kirk, Wagner, Clement etc..