General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[BatFlip]

1 minute ago, Jays24 said:

The Jays need 2 batters to push Springer to the 5 hole.  JDM or Grichuk do not fit that category and would only be great if we added as our 3rd big bat addition this off-season.  

Not sure if it's even realistic to expect that but that's what it's going to take to shut me up offensively.  

I don't know...  if they acquired Santander and Grichuk, the lineup would look like this with projected wRC+ from fangraphs:

 

1B - Vladdy: 155

2B - Giminez: 103

SS - Bichette: 118

3B - Clement: 103

RF - Springer: 110

CF - Varsho: 101

LF - Santander: 119

C - Kirk: 120 (am I seeing this right? quite the positive projection).

DH - Wagner: 118; Grichuk 103 (I'd argue Grichuk's projection would be much, much higher if he's protected and platooned)

That lineup doesn't make me cry, but I recognize it has a lot of possible variability and the potential to dramatically underperform.

 

 

 

 

 

[BatFlip]

15 minutes ago, saskjayfan said:

37...I know you guys are doing this to annoy me..lol

At 38, he's no spring chicken that's for sure.  

.....

[Barrelsandbombs]

If the Jays opening day CBT payroll in 2025 is the same as 2023 and 2024 at around $250 million, here's how much the Jays should have to spend in the offseason according to FanGraphs, Cots, and Spotrac. All 3 sites seem to be updated with the Hoffman signing:

FanGraphs: $11 million (https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/blue-jays?season=2025)

Cots: $15 million (https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/toronto-blue-jays/)

Spotrac: $20.5 million (https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/overview/_/year/2025)

[Jays24]

18 minutes ago, BatFlip said:

I don't know...  if they acquired Santander and Grichuk, the lineup would look like this with projected wRC+ from fangraphs:

 

1B - Vladdy: 155

2B - Giminez: 103

SS - Bichette: 118

3B - Clement: 103

RF - Springer: 110

CF - Varsho: 101

LF - Santander: 119

C - Kirk: 120 (am I seeing this right? quite the positive projection).

DH - Wagner: 118; Grichuk 103 (I'd argue Grichuk's projection would be much, much higher if he's protected and platooned)

That lineup doesn't make me cry, but I recognize it has a lot of possible variability and the potential to dramatically underperform.

I guess this is where I just don't trust projections as much as everyone else.  Kirk shouldn't be that high for a slap-hitting base-clogger who can barely catch back to back games.  We don't even have a MLB caliber backup for him either yet.  

There just isn't enough power in that lineup for me, it's also why I'm pushing to add another big bat to round up the top 4.  The other option would be to get Santandar and an elite leadoff hitter to push everyone down a spot.  

[glory]

3 minutes ago, Barrelsandbombs said:

If the Jays opening day CBT payroll in 2025 is the same as 2023 and 2024 at around $250 million, here's how much the Jays should have to spend in the offseason according to FanGraphs, Cots, and Spotrac. All 3 sites seem to be updated with the Hoffman signing:

FanGraphs: $11 million (https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/blue-jays?season=2025)

Cots: $15 million (https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/toronto-blue-jays/)

Spotrac: $20.5 million (https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/overview/_/year/2025)

They just spent $18.5M on Hoffman and Garcia when SN media like Davidi said they only had $20-25M to spend earlier in the off-season. That's not factoring Gimenez's contract which they absorbed, in addition to Sandlin's arbitration number. 

Unless the Jays are really, really bullish on Yariel as a SP (they don't appear to be), then I think they are going to have the highest payroll in franchise history this season because they need at least 1 bat (probably 2) and a starter, and they won't be able to do that with $10-20M left to spend. Even an innings eating average dude like Quintana is going to get about $10M or more. Maybe they plan to shop in the bargain bin for the rest of their needs, but I can't imagine a team on a tight budget is spending $33M on a reliever when they need a lot more than that. 

[max silver]

3 hours ago, Laika said:

Problem with JDM is he sucks. I think I'd rather just play Davis Schneider or whatever.

JDM drastically underproduced his xwOBA by 38 points and saw his overall season numbers take a large dip solely due to a slump in September. He was almost certainly victimized by some awful luck on batted balls as he produced a .332 xwOBA for the month and was "rewarded" for his efforts with a .184 wOBA and .150 BABIP. I think he should have something left in the tank moving forward although he's getting old enough that he'll drop off dramatically sooner or later. 

[Barrelsandbombs]

20 minutes ago, glory said:

They just spent $18.5M on Hoffman and Garcia when SN media like Davidi said they only had $20-25M to spend earlier in the off-season. That's not factoring Gimenez's contract which they absorbed, in addition to Sandlin's arbitration number. 

Unless the Jays are really, really bullish on Yariel as a SP (they don't appear to be), then I think they are going to have the highest payroll in franchise history this season because they need at least 1 bat (probably 2) and a starter, and they won't be able to do that with $10-20M left to spend. Even an innings eating average dude like Quintana is going to get about $10M or more. Maybe they plan to shop in the bargain bin for the rest of their needs, but I can't imagine a team on a tight budget is spending $33M on a reliever when they need a lot more than that. 

I never bought into the $20-25M number that Davidi and BNS were putting out there. After the non-tender deadline my update had the Jays with $47M to spend to reach $250M CBT according to FanGraphs. Subtract the AAVs of Gimenez, Yimi, Sandlin, and Hoffman from that while factoring that they're all taking a roster spot each of at least someone making league minimum, and you end up around the $11M FanGraphs says they have left now. Cots and Spotrac's estimates have been higher than FanGraphs all offseason, and remain so now.

I could see them spending right up around the 2nd CBT threshold at $261M though. According to Cots, their 2023 year end CBT payroll was $5M above the 2nd CBT threshold, so it seems as though they have spent around there before. Maybe they spend more aggressively earlier, and open the season there instead of end it there after in-season acquisitions.

[Laika]

14 minutes ago, max silver said:

JDM drastically underproduced his xwOBA by 38 points and saw his overall season numbers take a large dip solely due to a slump in September. He was almost certainly victimized by some awful luck on batted balls as he produced a .332 xwOBA for the month and was "rewarded" for his efforts with a .184 wOBA and .150 BABIP. I think he should have something left in the tank moving forward although he's getting old enough that he'll drop off dramatically sooner or later. 

Older players are far less likely to regress to the mean and improve, statistically. 

He's not the worst signing in the world at some amount of money I just don't really see the point given the projections of guys like Roden and Wagner and Schneider.

[saskjayfan]

57 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

The Jays need 2 batters to push Springer to the 5 hole.  JDM or Grichuk do not fit that category and would only be great if we added as our 3rd big bat addition this off-season.  

Not sure if it's even realistic to expect that but that's what it's going to take to shut me up offensively.  

Springer needs to be pushed to the 6 hole lol.  I think George still has a .780ish to .820 OPS bounce in him.  I wouldn't bet on it, I'm just hopeful it's still in him. I mean if money's no object let's just sign Alonso and Santander.  I have a feeling money isn't unlimited though..lol

[Jays24]

1 minute ago, saskjayfan said:

Springer needs to be pushed to the 6 hole lol.  I think George still has a .780ish to .820 OPS bounce in him.  I wouldn't bet on it, I'm just hopeful it's still in him. I mean if money's no object let's just sign Alonso and Santander.  I have a feeling money isn't unlimited though..lol

Ya but the only way we're pushing Springer down the lineup is if we add better bats than him.  Jays also aren't going to create their lineup based on projected wRC.   We will need 2 guys better than him where his ego will swallow being in the 5/6 hole.  I doubt we'll do it but you'll also see me complaining about it regularly lol. 

[G-Snarls]

45 minutes ago, glory said:

They just spent $18.5M on Hoffman and Garcia when SN media like Davidi said they only had $20-25M to spend earlier in the off-season. That's not factoring Gimenez's contract which they absorbed, in addition to Sandlin's arbitration number. 

Unless the Jays are really, really bullish on Yariel as a SP (they don't appear to be), then I think they are going to have the highest payroll in franchise history this season because they need at least 1 bat (probably 2) and a starter, and they won't be able to do that with $10-20M left to spend. Even an innings eating average dude like Quintana is going to get about $10M or more. Maybe they plan to shop in the bargain bin for the rest of their needs, but I can't imagine a team on a tight budget is spending $33M on a reliever when they need a lot more than that. 

They've also shown a willingness to pay a position player ~20M per, presuming the Santander rumour is true, and also a willingness to pay Vladdy long term. Though I guess we don't if they'd already signed Santander if they would have been willing to pay Hoffman but I hope so because the BP needed it. 

 

So yes could be a record payroll for sure depending on how the rest of the dominos fall. 

 

They will likely plan to avoid going over the luxury tax threshold repeatedly however. Thankfully they avoided it last year. 

[jaysblue]

A Wagner/Grichuk platoon at DH would work nicely. Grichuk could also act as a 4th outfielder who could play all 3 outfield positions. 

Still need to add one big bat for LF. Hopefully the market for Santander has cooled down and we could get him similar to Teo money. Other options could be Profar or Hays, but not too excited about them unless the team goes out and adds a power bat like Alonso. 

As for 3B, I suppose the Jays are content with rolling out Clement as the everyday option? 

[glory]

54 minutes ago, G-Snarls said:

They've also shown a willingness to pay a position player ~20M per, presuming the Santander rumour is true, and also a willingness to pay Vladdy long term. Though I guess we don't if they'd already signed Santander if they would have been willing to pay Hoffman but I hope so because the BP needed it. 

So yes could be a record payroll for sure depending on how the rest of the dominos fall. 

They will likely plan to avoid going over the luxury tax threshold repeatedly however. Thankfully they avoided it last year. 

Someone in the Jays media recently brought up that the Jays never leak anything (the agents do), and even this Hoffman signing came out of no where. Santander's been linked to the Jays for weeks, if not longer, which seems unusual for them. Not many options aside from Tony for what the Jays need (power bat) so could be the media trying to piece two and two together. We will see if that materializes. Atkins usually doesn't spend on bats. Springer is the rare exception (and I guess Gimenez now, but that was a trade). He typically spends a lot on pitching. 

But yeah now that the CBT penalties have been reset, they need to spend a lot. They could always shed payroll at the deadline to get under if things go south.

[Funky]

Steve Phillips was on TSN Overdrive yesterday and believes we should sign Alonso and Bregman and trade Vladdy to Seattle for a starter. Also believed we should sign Santander on top of that. The problem in my eyes is we know 1 of those 4 guys actually wants to play in Toronto and that is Vladdy.  It’s an interesting thought but I would rather keep Vlad, sign Bregman( on base and defense), sign Santander  (boomstick) and trade Bo to recoup the farm.   Pivetta also interests me to knock last years prized catch into the BP to strengthen it  

everywhere I am looking it says Vladdy and the Jays are 100 million apart and Vladdy is asking for 450 million.  Has anyone heard the years on this rumor? The only thing I could find is people speculating it’s 10 years.  45 mil a year on a first baseman seems horrific.  I would rather a 14 year 500 if the first year started this year and bought out the 28.5 number they settled on but not sure if that is legal?

With deferred money and signing bonuses entering play, would Vladdy and TO both be willing to go that route to ether help the annual value or make a buyout number on the backend more palatable? Maybe an incentive clause or two, MVP gets you an extra 3 million apart year or something like that.  

I guess I just want to see the team remain competitive.  Rebuilds suck, and baseball prospects seem compatible to lotteries.  You may get lucky or most often you are purchasing more lotto tickets looking for the winners. 
 

The FO made a good signing yesterday. I just hope the momentum continues as I will be down at spring training and can’t wait to see some ball, and sun    

 

 

 

[Vancouverite]

Is Kirby Yates planning on playing next year?

 

Seems he's a free agent, what do you guys think of him on a 1-year deal? Can't imagine many teams will give him a 2 year guaranteed deal at his age 

[Eat My Shatkins]

Heh, so all the Jays need to do is sign all of the top 3 remaining position player FA's, and convince them to come to Toronto while at the same time they are trading away Vladdy.

That should be EZ PZ. Thanks Steve.

[Eat My Shatkins]

1 minute ago, Vancouverite said:

Is Kirby Yates planning on playing next year?

 

Seems he's a free agent, what do you guys think of him on a 1-year deal? Can't imagine many teams will give him a 2 year guaranteed deal at his age 

As far as I know he is. I'd love for him and the Jays to reunite, with him actually pitching for us this time. He's got swing and miss for days.

[Funky]

Would love a Yates reunion.  Plus we already paid him for doing nothing.  He owes us

[John_Havok]

23 hours ago, jaysblue said:

If you had a choice and could only sign one, who would you rather sign right now:

Nick Pivetta or Tanner Scott? 

Scott. 

[GNick92]

If we do flop next year can trade Vlad, Bo, Green and Bassett for good haul of youth. End up with best farm system in baseball and 70 million extra to spend in free agency and trades. Not bad at all for a flop. 

[saskjayfan]

1 hour ago, GNick92 said:

If we do flop next year can trade Vlad, Bo, Green and Bassett for good haul of youth. End up with best farm system in baseball and 70 million extra to spend in free agency and trades. Not bad at all for a flop. 

The Marlins got 10 players trading Realmuto, Yelich and Stanton and Stanton was traded in the offseason after winning the MVP.  None of those players amounted to anything and none of those players are currently in the Miami Marlins organization.  A cautionary tale. 

[max silver]

2 hours ago, saskjayfan said:

The Marlins got 10 players trading Realmuto, Yelich and Stanton and Stanton was traded in the offseason after winning the MVP.  None of those players amounted to anything and none of those players are currently in the Miami Marlins organization.  A cautionary tale. 

I still think the Marlins made out like bandits getting out from Stanton's contract before he turned into a pumpkin.

[Vancouverite]

9 hours ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

As far as I know he is. I'd love for him and the Jays to reunite, with him actually pitching for us this time. He's got swing and miss for days.

Let's hope so.

We've heard nothing about jays being in on Yates and they have a prior relationship.

Hoffman - Yates - Green - Garcia - Sandin has potential 

[BB17]

Grichuk would be a solid signing although not sure if he wants to comeback to Toronto. He mashes LHP and with all the platoon type LHH Toronto has (Wagner, Barger, Roden, even Varsho) they need a guy who can hit lefties. 

I'd still prefer Santander in LF on a 3-4 year deal though. Its nice that he's a switch hitter and he'd be a middle of the lineup bat the team desperately needs.

Jays depth on the position player side actually is decent the problem is a lot of them have a limitation. Guys like Wagner, Schnieder, Barger and in the minors Martinez and Roden. They can hit pretty well from one side of the plate but are bad/limited defensively.  

[BB17]

10 hours ago, Vancouverite said:

Let's hope so.

We've heard nothing about jays being in on Yates and they have a prior relationship.

Hoffman - Yates - Green - Garcia - Sandin has potential 

I like Yates a lot but not at the expense of 2 hitters or a 5th SP.

[Jays24]

6 minutes ago, BB17 said:

Grichuk would be a solid signing although not sure if he wants to comeback to Toronto. He mashes LHP and with all the platoon type LHH Toronto has (Wagner, Barger, Roden, even Varsho) they need a guy who can hit lefties. 

I'd still prefer Santander in LF on a 3-4 year deal though. Its nice that he's a switch hitter and he'd be a middle of the lineup bat the team desperately needs.

Jays depth on the position player side actually is decent the problem is a lot of them have a limitation. Guys like Wagner, Schnieder, Barger and in the minors Martinez and Roden. They can hit pretty well from one side of the plate but are bad/limited defensively.  

Those guys are great depth players that would be fine batting 7-9 on a good team.  Problem with the Jays is that we need top end hitting talent to hit in our top 4 and those are the positions we would need to upgrade in to do that.  

[BB17]

5 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Those guys are great depth players that would be fine batting 7-9 on a good team.  Problem with the Jays is that we need top end hitting talent to hit in our top 4 and those are the positions we would need to upgrade in to do that.  

I agree.. lots of tweeners (high end bench players/low end regulars). Ernie fits into that category too.

They need a middle of the order bat pretty badly. You don't want it to be May and have Varsho/Kirk hitting in the top 4 with Springer leading off.

[saskjayfan]

7 hours ago, BB17 said:

Grichuk would be a solid signing although not sure if he wants to comeback to Toronto. He mashes LHP and with all the platoon type LHH Toronto has (Wagner, Barger, Roden, even Varsho) they need a guy who can hit lefties. 

I'd still prefer Santander in LF on a 3-4 year deal though. Its nice that he's a switch hitter and he'd be a middle of the lineup bat the team desperately needs.

Jays depth on the position player side actually is decent the problem is a lot of them have a limitation. Guys like Wagner, Schnieder, Barger and in the minors Martinez and Roden. They can hit pretty well from one side of the plate but are bad/limited defensively.  

Grichuk loved Toronto.  I have no doubt he would return to Toronto.  

[saskjayfan]

1 hour ago, BB17 said:

I agree.. lots of tweeners (high end bench players/low end regulars). Ernie fits into that category too.

They need a middle of the order bat pretty badly. You don't want it to be May and have Varsho/Kirk hitting in the top 4 with Springer leading off.

If Varsho hits any higher than 7th this year!

[Jays24]

2 hours ago, saskjayfan said:

Grichuk loved Toronto.  I have no doubt he would return to Toronto.  

He better love Toronto for that damn contract he got, it was one of the few contract extensions this front office has handed out lol