Predict Vladdy's Extension Contract

[Daniel Labude]

Well his point is that there would be 10 teams willing to pay him 300M

 

A year ago nobody here would’ve given him $250M

 

Cough cough

 

Excuse me lmao

[Daniel Labude]

that's what happens I guess when a guy goes from a 2 WAR player to a 6 WAR player, seemingly overnight

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a personality disorder

 

2019 - replacement level

2020 - replacement level

2021 - superstar

2022 - slightly above average

2023 - below average

2024 march - replacement level 1B

2024 May onwards - superstar

 

I feel like a lot "superstars" fall into this variable pattern. Take Harper for example. He has only topped 5 WAR, 3 times in his career. Vlad is already at 2 times. Acuna only 1 time. Tatis only 1 time. Devers 1 time. Freeman 3 times. Alvarez 2 times. Corey Seager 2 times

[glory]

I’ll go with 11/350 if it’s an extension signed this winter. Although I think he ends up going to free agency, so that price could rise or fall depending on how he does in 2025.

[Laika]

I feel like a lot "superstars" fall into this variable pattern. Take Harper for example. He has only topped 5 WAR, 3 times in his career. Vlad is already at 2 times. Acuna only 1 time. Tatis only 1 time. Devers 1 time. Freeman 3 times. Alvarez 2 times. Corey Seager 2 times

 

Yeah but they don't do the whole "flirting with replacement level" part very often, or ever.

 

Vlad - times under 2 WAR (including 2020 where he projected to be under 2 WAR in a full season) = three

 

Acuna - one (2024, major injury)

Tatis - none

Devers - three (the Vlad contract comp!)

Freeman - two (ages 21 and 22)

Seager - one (2018, major injury)

Yordan - one (2020, major injury)

Harper - one (2014, injury)

 

So from that last it's really only Devers and Freeman who are remotely comparable.

 

Vlad has some sad lows that most of these guys never have. Talking about being healthy and sucking.

[Daniel Labude]

Yeah but they don't do the whole "flirting with replacement level" part very often, or ever.

 

Vlad - times under 2 WAR (including 2020 where he projected to be under 2 WAR in a full season) = three

 

Acuna - one (2024, major injury)

Tatis - none

Devers - three (the Vlad contract comp!)

Freeman - two (ages 21 and 22)

Seager - one (2018, major injury)

Yordan - one (2020, major injury)

Harper - one (2014, injury)

 

So from that last it's really only Devers and Freeman who are remotely comparable.

 

Vlad has some sad lows that most of these guys never have. Talking about being healthy and sucking.

 

But again that beings in the flaws of WAR and position imo. Way too much value for defense

[Olerud363]

Hey Olerud I’m not taking shots at who said what here because a) I wouldn’t have remembered who might have mentioned DFA being a possibility and because it was just part of the discussion

 

I’m just making the point that there has been a wide net cast in terms of Vlad’s worth in dollars, so connorp saying there’s 10 teams who would give him 300M isn’t some universally agreed upon opinion

 

lol. Yeah. No. Did not take it that anyone was taking a shot... just taking a shot at myself because I've gone from thinking Vlad might get released, to thinking he may wildly exceed contract expectations.

[L54]

Cough cough

 

Excuse me lmao

 

Did you fart?

 

Am I supposed to remember your stance on this or something? You haven’t posted for three months, I forgot you existed

[Daniel Labude]

I think you're just cherry picking players and it seems arbitrary to use 5 WAR. Harper was variable early in his career (similar to Vlad), but has settled into a pretty consistent player over the last 8 years. Some of the other guys you list, the variability is a result of injuries and/or the shortened 2020 season. And a guy like Freeman has been VERY consistent throughout his career (5+ WAR 4 times and 4+ WAR 6 times). Just go pick another list of stars and let me know how that goes. Here's some:

 

Lindor

Soto

Ohtani

JRam

Mookie

Turner

Arenado

Altuve

 

You don't see a lot of 40 point shifts in wRC+ or 4 WAR in many stars (without some reasonable explanation like returning from injuries) - I mean it does happen - guys have down seasons for whatever reason. I think we all hope that Vlad is following the Harper path of maturing into a consistent, great hitter.

 

4 of Ohtanis first 5 seasons were

 

wRC+ 149

WAR 2.7

 

wRC+ 120

WAR 1.6

 

wRC+ 80

WAR 0

 

wRC+ 142

WAR 3.6

 

Altuve only has 4 seasons in his career over 140 wRC+. Vlad already has 2 years higher that Altuves career high

 

Lindor's career wRC+ is 120 and has never been above Vlad's average wRC+ in any 1 season

 

2 of JRams first 3 seasons were below 82 w RC+ and has since had years of 108 and 122. After his 4th season he topped out at 7.6 WAR and bottomed out at 3.5 WAR

 

Trea Turner has had 4 seasons below 108 wRC+. Also has only had 4 seasons above 148 games

 

Soto's wRC+ not including Covid

 

146

143

164

146

154

180

[Daniel Labude]

Did you fart?

 

Am I supposed to remember your stance on this or something? You haven’t posted for three months, I forgot you existed

 

My plans working lol

 

I figured you didn't thats why I posted a reminder

[Olerud363]

But again that beings in the flaws of WAR and position imo. Way too much value for defense

 

Note this is what Vlad's agents will also be saying.

 

1. Elite hitting performance in 99.99th percentile for 5 month stretches several times (age 18, 19, 22, and 25)

2. Batted ball exit velocities are greatest in history (if measured by number of balls a year hit over 100 mph)

3. fWAR flawed and doesn't work for Vlad, gold glove 1b and capable third base.

4. Baserunning scores bad because of youthful exuberance which will be toned down going forward

 

Not arguing whether above are valid points or not, but his agents will be making them.

[Daniel Labude]

Note this is what Vlad's agents will also be saying.

 

1. Elite hitting performance in 99.99th percentile for 5 month stretches several times (age 18, 19, 22, and 25)

2. Batted ball exit velocities are greatest in history (if measured by number of balls a year hit over 100 mph)

3. fWAR flawed and doesn't work for Vlad, gold glove 1b and capable third base.

4. Baserunning scores bad because of youthful exuberance which will be toned down going forward

 

Not arguing whether above are valid points or not, but his agents will be making them.

 

Yep. Might add in how well he did this year with a AA team around him

[Brownie19]

Altuve only has 4 seasons in his career over 140 wRC+. Vlad already has 2 years higher that Altuves career high

 

Lindor's career wRC+ is 120 and has never been above Vlad's average wRC+ in any 1 season

 

My bad - I thought you were suggesting a lot "superstars" fall into this variable pattern.

[max silver]

Yep. Might add in how well he did this year with a AA team around him

 

Vlad's season should be all the proof you need that protection doesn't really matter with the truly elite hitters.

[max silver]

Yeah but they don't do the whole "flirting with replacement level" part very often, or ever.

 

Vlad - times under 2 WAR (including 2020 where he projected to be under 2 WAR in a full season) = three

 

Acuna - one (2024, major injury)

Tatis - none

Devers - three (the Vlad contract comp!)

Freeman - two (ages 21 and 22)

Seager - one (2018, major injury)

Yordan - one (2020, major injury)

Harper - one (2014, injury)

 

So from that last it's really only Devers and Freeman who are remotely comparable.

 

Vlad has some sad lows that most of these guys never have. Talking about being healthy and sucking.

 

From reading between the lines from Vlad's offseason comments it appears he wasn't particularly close to fully healthy in 2023. He was healthy enough to at least take the field but played through a lot of pain from lingering issues that was partial motivation to revamp his offseason training routine with an eye towards injury prevention.

[Brownie19]

From reading between the lines from Vlad's offseason comments it appears he wasn't particularly close to fully healthy in 2023. He was healthy enough to at least take the field but played through a lot of pain from lingering issues that was partial motivation to revamp his offseason training routine with an eye towards injury prevention.

 

Any insight into what was injured? Knee again?

 

There is some documented changes in his swing - I wonder if those were related to an injury, or if he just fell into a bad habit (or bad coaching).

[connorp]

In terms of fWAR he was tracking with other players who got DFAd or put on waivers (Beillinger, Alex Rios)

 

The funny thing is a year ago I was arguing that he might get DFAd and now I am arguing he is going to ask for (and possibly get) a ridiculous 500 million dollar contract from some team (if next year is a 'good' Vlad year).

 

May seem inconsistent, but both scenarios result from Vlad being over-rated no matter what his WAR.

 

If Vlad hits .265 25 100 and 1 WAR he is over-rated because of counting stats, exit velocities and because he is so much fun, treated more like 4 WAR player.

If Vlad hits .320 30 100 and 5.5 WAR he is over-rated because of counting stats (200 hits! (almost)), exit velocities and because he is so much fun, treated more like 7 WAR player.

 

Yes, at least you can concede you’re the #1 Vlad wind flag flapper.

[Daniel Labude]

Vlad's season should be all the proof you need that protection doesn't really matter with the truly elite hitters.

 

I dont agree with that. There are times yes, but pitchers are more likely to throw more pitches you can hit if there are runners on or threats behind you

[Omar]

Any insight into what was injured? Knee again?

 

There is some documented changes in his swing - I wonder if those were related to an injury, or if he just fell into a bad habit (or bad coaching).

 

I seem to remember Vladdy getting his hand stepped on and cutting his middle finger. Seemed to derail him for quite a while.

[Laika]

why is fWAR wrong about Vlad's defense?

 

he is a minus defender by all of OAA, UZR, and DRS. the numbers are however much worse under OAA.

 

but fWAR uses UZR still, I think. it has only been dinging him for like -2 to -4 runs per year recently. not a big deal at all.

 

there is not a big delta in 1B UZR either. the best only get like +4 runs.

 

what is fWAR missing that is going to add so much to every year of Vlad's career? what is the specific gripe here?

[max silver]

I believe Fangraphs has fully switched to Statcast defensive metrics and this was applied retroactively.

[burlingtonbandit]

Jays have nothing to lose. Sign Soto and extend Vlad, and your middle-of-the-order is set for the next decade.

 

Lol Soto would have to want to come here/Jays overpay by a massive amount. No chance he leaves New York.

[Olerud363]

why is fWAR wrong about Vlad's defense?

 

he is a minus defender by all of OAA, UZR, and DRS. the numbers are however much worse under OAA.

 

but fWAR uses UZR still, I think. it has only been dinging him for like -2 to -4 runs per year recently. not a big deal at all.

 

there is not a big delta in 1B UZR either. the best only get like +4 runs.

 

what is fWAR missing that is going to add so much to every year of Vlad's career? what is the specific gripe here?

 

No idea. I'm not saying fWAR is wrong. A couple of others are though and I assume Vlad's agents will.

[John_Havok]

Vlad's season should be all the proof you need that protection doesn't really matter with the truly elite hitters.

 

I think its a factor, but it's just very situational that you see it's true impact. Nobody cares who's hitting behind anyone on April 10th. In playoff series when hitters are facing top starters and pen arms almost exclusively, matters a bit more when a manager has to decide whether to pitch around a guy or not, or go to the pen or not.

[Olerud363]

Vlad's season should be all the proof you need that protection doesn't really matter with the truly elite hitters.

 

 

Vlad had no one. Soto had Aaron Judge. Soto still walked twice as much.

 

I mean this is the most extreme case you can find and both walked at their career rates... that is not true actually Soto walked like 18% with 18.8% career, and Vlad 10.0 % with 9.9% career.

 

So OK. Maybe there is a tiny bit of signal in there. Very tiny you can use it if you like tiny non-significant signal. In reality both had good seasons by their own standards, both walked near their career rates, one with the greatest hitter since Babe Ruth and greatest protector ever, one protected by Kirk and Howritz.

[Laika]

Vlad had no one. Soto had Aaron Judge. Soto still walked twice as much.

 

I mean this is the most extreme case you can find and both walked at their career rates... that is not true actually Soto walked like 18% with 18.8% career, and Vlad 10.0 % with 9.9% career.

 

So OK. Maybe there is a tiny bit of signal in there. Very tiny you can use it if you like tiny non-significant signal. In reality both had good seasons by their own standards, both walked near their career rates, one with the greatest hitter since Babe Ruth and greatest protector ever, one protected by Kirk and Howritz.

 

But you wouldn't expect Soto to walk more hitting in front of Judge

 

Who wants to walk someone in front of Judge?

 

You would expect Soto to get more pitches to hit hard

[Brownie19]

I dont agree with that. There are times yes, but pitchers are more likely to throw more pitches you can hit if there are runners on or threats behind you

 

I think everyone sees that logic, but there are lots of actual results (and studies I believe) that prove otherwise. Getting walked really helps your team. I guess the issue would be if you're Javy Baez and you simply can't walk and take advantage of being worked around? I think it exists, just MUCH less than people naturally think.

[max silver]

But you wouldn't expect Soto to walk more hitting in front of Judge

 

Who wants to walk someone in front of Judge?

 

You would expect Soto to get more pitches to hit hard

 

Soto's strike zone and meatball percentages were essentially identical to the year prior.

[max silver]

I think everyone sees that logic, but there are lots of actual results (and studies I believe) that prove otherwise. Getting walked really helps your team. I guess the issue would be if you're Javy Baez and you simply can't walk and take advantage of being worked around? I think it exists, just MUCH less than people naturally think.

 

I don't think that MLB pitchers ever intentionally throw pitches in the middle of the plate to the elite sluggers as it's something that happens when they make mistakes. Despite the largely mediocre hitters surrounding Vlad this season he actually received the highest percentage of meatball pitches in his entire career. This season he was actually able to take advantage of the mistake pitches and simultaneously lay off of more of the pitches around the edges of the strike zone and wait for pitches he could hammer.

[Brownie19]

I don't think that MLB pitchers ever intentionally throw pitches in the middle of the plate to the elite sluggers as it's something that happens when they make mistakes. Despite the largely mediocre hitters surrounding Vlad this season he actually received the highest percentage of meatball pitches in his entire career. This season he was actually able to take advantage of the mistake pitches and simultaneously lay off of more of the pitches around the edges of the strike zone and wait for pitches he could hammer.

 

Yeah - I remember reading how he went from absolutely crushing fastballs (and meatball fastballs) to being well below average on those pitches in 2022/23. He found a way to correct that this year I believe.

[Orgfiller]

why is fWAR wrong about Vlad's defense?

 

he is a minus defender by all of OAA, UZR, and DRS. the numbers are however much worse under OAA.

 

but fWAR uses UZR still, I think. it has only been dinging him for like -2 to -4 runs per year recently. not a big deal at all.

 

there is not a big delta in 1B UZR either. the best only get like +4 runs.

 

what is fWAR missing that is going to add so much to every year of Vlad's career? what is the specific gripe here?

Fangraphs has been using OAA for range - basically its main component that separates it from the others - in its WAR calculations since 2022, retroactive to 2016. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-fangraphs-war-fielding-update/

 

Vlad is a f***ing awful defender. He has a strong arm which is often useless for a 1B, and has horrendous feet and range.