Vladdy/Bo Extension or Trade Discussion

[Carlos Danger]

I would be hesitant to go beyond 5 years as well just based on the inconsistency of his performance and weight issues. Something between 140-150 million for 5 years is the max they should do. Anything beyond that move on. Unless he can show he can play 3B everyday but he’s already an awful 1B. He’s more than likely a full time DH after 27.

 

Paul Beeston, is that you?

[L54]

Pressure of local boy who's definitely not as good as Vlad trying to replace Vlad would be so rough that I would just assume for failure.

 

I don’t really see it that way and impossible to quantify or predict

 

He’s a good hitter and a good defender who wont cost as much. I think he’s a good target

[hanton]

who says we can even compete with other teams oince these players hit FA? we end up overpaying anyway - eg springer, gausman. Should have overpayed a couple of years ago bought out the arb years and extend

[AMS528]

I don’t really see it that way and impossible to quantify or predict

 

He’s a good hitter and a good defender who wont cost as much. I think he’s a good target

 

I would love to get him in addition to Vlad and maybe shift Vlad to DH, but his best hitting season is like I noted above, worse than 2022 Vlad that everyone was annoyed by.

[Bone R]

Any word on how much Vladdy is asking for?

[Brownie19]

who says we can even compete with other teams oince these players hit FA? we end up overpaying anyway - eg springer, gausman. Should have overpayed a couple of years ago bought out the arb years and extend

 

Not a chance. As soon as we saw Vlad in 2022, the FO made the right call to wait this out longer. If Vlad repeated 2021, or had a season like this current one, then yes - but there were REAL questions as to whether Vlad was elite and worthy of a long term commitment.

[Terminator]

who says we can even compete with other teams oince these players hit FA? we end up overpaying anyway - eg springer, gausman. Should have overpayed a couple of years ago bought out the arb years and extend

 

I think it's very rare for players to go back to their team once they hit free agency.

[Carlos Danger]

I think it's very rare for players to go back to their team once they hit free agency.

 

Judge. Probably just used SF as leverage.

[hanton]

I think it's very rare for players to go back to their team once they hit free agency.

 

and this. judge and dj are are the exceptions

[Laika]

I think it's very rare for players to go back to their team once they hit free agency.

 

Very rare? I don't know if I would use those words. I would guess that the incumbent team is actually the most likely landing spot, historically.

 

We saw some of the bigger FA do it last offseason, Bellinger and Nola. Along with multiple second tier guys.

Year prior, Nimmo, Judge, Edwin Diaz, Correa.

 

But yeah if you want to say that his chances of returning to Toronto once he has hit FA are drastically lower, that's certainly true. He would go from like 33% chance to extend to 8% chance to come back. Or whatever.

[Terminator]

Any word on how much Vladdy is asking for?

 

Nope.

 

It seems like the online fan narrative is that he will want 300M and the team will want to come in under 200.

 

Fans seem to land on 240ish or so? I think the casuals are okay with higher and the stat nerds think below 200.

[Terminator]

Very rare? I don't know if I would use those words. I would guess that the incumbent team is actually the most likely landing spot, historically.

 

We saw some of the bigger FA do it last offseason, Bellinger and Nola. Along with multiple second tier guys.

Year prior, Nimmo, Judge, Edwin Diaz, Correa.

 

But yeah if you want to say that his chances of returning to Toronto once he has hit FA are drastically lower, that's certainly true. He would go from like 33% chance to extend to 8% chance to come back. Or whatever.

 

Yeah maybe that's wrong. I think I read that on Fangraphs within the past year or two but maybe the narrative is changing. It's hard to quantify too because of a poor team's player hits FA he's guaranteed to be gone.

[metafour]

Jeff Passan is 100% correct. Jays fans don't understand markets or how they work:

 

 

[Terminator]

I think Passan is right in that the team should wait for FA to play out and try and extend him after Alonso signs. Start negotiations at the beginning of February.

 

I also wonder if he'd be interested in a deferred contract which would superficially pump his number up and also technically make him the highest paid 1B.

 

Not sure how to calculate the deferrals out but let's say he technically got 10 for 300, but enough of it was in deferrals so it was actually 10 for 200 for CBT purposes. Adjust those numbers how you see fit but I wonder if something like that could help make it work for both sides?

[Spanky99]

Nope.

 

It seems like the online fan narrative is that he will want 300M and the team will want to come in under 200.

 

Fans seem to land on 240ish or so? I think the casuals are okay with higher and the stat nerds think below 200.

 

Jayson Stark said he's likely looking for a Harper contract, lol. Then you have Passan laughing at that notion on the same show and they are both from ESPN.

[Carlos Danger]

How many times (EVERY YEAR) are analysts blown away by the size of the contracts for superstars...

 

Prince Fielder, signed a 9 yr $214 million dollar contract in 2011/2012.

 

How are you going to tell me that in 2024 it will not be at LEAST 35% more expensive in 2024/2025/ going into 2026 season.

 

That is $300 million just based on inflation. I would also bet Vlad would want more than 9 years. It would be a minimum 10 yrs I would wager.

[Barrelsandbombs]

Passan's word >> Stark's word

[Terminator]

How many times (EVERY YEAR) are analysts blown away by the size of the contracts for superstars...

 

Prince Fielder, signed a 9 yr $214 million dollar contract in 2011/2012.

 

How are you going to tell me that in 2024 it will not be at LEAST 35% more expensive in 2024/2025/ going into 2026 season.

 

That is $300 million just based on inflation. I would also bet Vlad would want more than 9 years. It would be a minimum 10 yrs I would wager.

 

I hear you. Analysts often get blown away by the size of contracts. Sometimes the reverse happens though like last year.

 

And the market has changed since the Prince Fielder days. 1B is one of the lesser paid positions now. Matt Olson is a better comparison.

[metafour]

How many times (EVERY YEAR) are analysts blown away by the size of the contracts for superstars...

 

Prince Fielder, signed a 9 yr $214 million dollar contract in 2011/2012.

 

You miss the point: the market has changed dramatically since 2011/2012.

 

Teams are smarter in how they value players now.

 

You need to realize that Pujols, Votto, and Fielder all got 9-10 year contracts as 1B within 1-2 years of each other. Since then, there have been ZERO 1B to land anything over 8 years. ZERO. And that is over a decade.

 

Matt Olson got 8 years two seasons ago, but he had to take a loss on his AAV in order to do so. He is paid only ~$21M per year, which is well below market value for a player of his output.

 

Nobody is giving a 1B/DH type both market-value AAV and term (years) at the same time; it is one or the other. The only players who are getting both yearly AAV and term (ie: the $300+M examples) are players who play premium positions (SS, 3B, CF). As Passan correctly mentioned; Harper was not signed as a 1B - the fact that he is playing 1B 3-4 seasons into his deal does not make him comparable to Vlad. And yes, even a "bad" defensive RF is going to be valued much higher than any 1B.

[Laika]

Also, Vlad is not a superstar.

 

That's exactly the point of confusion. Vlad camp thinks he is a superstar. Casuals think he is a superstar.

 

Nobody "inside baseball" is going to want to pay him as a superstar.

[Terminator]

Is Vlad seen as better than Matt Olson was when he signed his extension?

 

Olson was coming off of a 5 WAR season and entering his age 28 year.

 

Vlad will be coming off a similar season and will be entering his age 26 season.

 

Vlad will be able to get more than Olson but it's a good baseline.

[glory]

If all else fails and you walk Vlad into free agency and don’t sign him then pivot to hometown boy Josh Naylor

 

Yeah this seems like a pretty realistic outcome. The Jays will have a s*** ton of financial wiggle room after 2025 so whatever happens in 2025 (playoff team or sellers at the deadline) they will definitely reinvest that winter. Naylor isn't great but should be reasonably priced and is a good hitter. The fact that they can wrap the flag around him for marketing probably helps too.

[Carlos Danger]

Also, Vlad is not a superstar.

 

That's exactly the point of confusion. Vlad camp thinks he is a superstar. Casuals think he is a superstar.

 

Nobody "inside baseball" is going to want to pay him as a superstar.

 

I agree 100% on this. However, everything points to he wants to be paid as one as you have mentioned. As such, I am worried about Rogers with stadium renos and season ticket sales in mind, and Vlad being the face of the franchise, doing something stupid.

[John_Havok]

Yeah this seems like a pretty realistic outcome. The Jays will have a s*** ton of financial wiggle room after 2025 so whatever happens in 2025 (playoff team or sellers at the deadline) they will definitely reinvest that winter. Naylor isn't great but should be reasonably priced and is a good hitter. The fact that they can wrap the flag around him for marketing probably helps too.

 

nah, Naylor would be cared about like.... 1/100th of Vlad.

[Jimcanuck]

If the disconnect doesnt resolve, Vlad is headed for FA disappointment.

[John_Havok]

I agree 100% on this. However, everything points to he wants to be paid as one as you have mentioned. As such, I am worried about Rogers with stadium renos and season ticket sales in mind, and Vlad being the face of the franchise, doing something stupid.

 

There's tons of ways to minimize the stupid. The most likely way is through deferred money.

[Jonn]

If the disconnect doesnt resolve, Vlad is headed for FA disappointment.

 

It only takes one dumb team to offer him the contract nobody else wants to.

[Spanky99]

Passan's word >> Stark's word

 

You mean opinion and yes, the entire baseball industry knows this.

[Carlos Danger]

Some teams will offer 7 yrs and then the team that will offer 10 will get him.

 

I don't think you will see less than a 10 yr contract for a 26 yr old.

 

FYI- I am in the trade camp, I was last year and at this years deadline.

 

I am just stating that if the Jays sign him to an extension, it won't be for less than $200 million and closer to FA he will get well north of that also.

[Spanky99]

Some teams will offer 7 yrs and then the team that will offer 10 will get him.

 

I don't think you will see less than a 10 yr contract for a 26 yr old.

 

FYI- I am in the trade camp, I was last year and at this years deadline.

 

I am just stating that if the Jays sign him to an extension, it won't be for less than $200 million and closer to FA he will get well north of that also.

 

Weren't you telling me a week or so ago that Vlad doesn't need the security of term? 230M is fair.