Who is getting fired?

[Brownie19]

It's definitely true, and it would not make sense to replace Atkins right before the deadline, but it is incredibly unfortunate that the guy that may certainly be fired at the end of the season is the one who will handle major decisions at the deadline that will have strong role in shaping the teams future.

 

If the Jays manage to win even a couple more games than they lose and are still within spitting distance it is of concern that Atkins may be motivated to save his ass.

 

Even if he's not, the idea here is that he's done a poor enough job that he's going to get canned and nonetheless we're stuck with him making these decisions. Unfortunate for the next GM as well.

 

What you should expect to happen is they will keep Vlad, Bo, Gaus, Bassitt, etc. (those with more than 1 year of control) and let the new GM decide what to do this offseason. Guys like Kikucci, Jansen, Turner, bullpen arms, etc. all likely don't have a ton of value anyway. They can be sold off, with someone like Shapiro keeping a watchful eye. Most of the guys they get in return will just be lotto tickets anyway. I don't think many GM's have way more success with lotto tickets than your average GM anyway.

[glory]

What makes matters more difficult as far as the GM situation is that Shapiro himself is a FA after 2025. Do you really want him hiring the next GM if he's gone in a year? Click is already in house so I guess they can go that route, but Chaim Bloom should be a cautionary tale for taking someone from the Rays org and expecting them to be great. Click's sample size in Houston wasn't big enough to really judge as their core was already in place when he took over. The only thing I remember about Click in Houston is he allegedly wanted to trade Urquidy for 2 months of Willson Contreras at the 2022 deadline and was vetoed by either Baker or ownership (or both). They ended up winning the WS anyway.

 

I have no issues with waiting until the winter for the big decisions (Vlad, Bo, Gausman, etc) to be made by the new GM. With Bo it might be the smart thing to do given how bad he's been, and Gausman will still have 2 years of control left in the winter so as long as he finishes reasonably well he should still have value. It's Vlad that is more complicated.

[Laika]

It's definitely true, and it would not make sense to replace Atkins right before the deadline, but it is incredibly unfortunate that the guy that may certainly be fired at the end of the season is the one who will handle major decisions at the deadline that will have strong role in shaping the teams future.

 

If the Jays manage to win even a couple more games than they lose and are still within spitting distance it is of concern that Atkins may be motivated to save his ass.

 

Even if he's not, the idea here is that he's done a poor enough job that he's going to get canned and nonetheless we're stuck with him making these decisions. Unfortunate for the next GM as well.

 

I would guess that ownership will just give their employee Mr. Atkins a mandate, such as:

 

1. field offers for these players, don't bother fielding offers for Vlad we don't want him dealt

2. any trade of player x, y, z needs ownership approval

3. any trade of players a, b, c only require Shapiro approval

 

 

The real downside is that there is nobody who has to capacity, ability, and freedom to make the big forward thinking moves.

 

To pull of a quick and decisive rebuild this team would probably need to trade Bo and also do very well in the trade. That is not going to happen. I mean it could happen in the offseason but by the trade deadline is such an awesome pinch point for sellers these days.

[Krylian]

What makes matters more difficult as far as the GM situation is that Shapiro himself is a FA after 2025. Do you really want him hiring the next GM if he's gone in a year? Click is already in house so I guess they can go that route, but Chaim Bloom should be a cautionary tale for taking someone from the Rays org and expecting them to be great. Click's sample size in Houston wasn't big enough to really judge as their core was already in place when he took over. The only thing I remember about Click in Houston is he allegedly wanted to trade Urquidy for 2 months of Willson Contreras at the 2022 deadline and was vetoed by either Baker or ownership (or both). They ended up winning the WS anyway.

 

I have no issues with waiting until the winter for the big decisions (Vlad, Bo, Gausman, etc) to be made by the new GM. With Bo it might be the smart thing to do given how bad he's been, and Gausman will still have 2 years of control left in the winter so as long as he finishes reasonably well he should still have value. It's Vlad that is more complicated.

 

If ownership is intent in keeping Shapiro, and he wants to stick around, we'd likely see an extension signed not long after the season is completed...then you can have Shapiro hire the new GM, knowing he'll be around for a bit. Otherwise if it's a total house cleaning, expect that they'll already have a replacement lined up and said replacement will have already been having discussions on his GM of choice in advance of his hiring.

[Omar]

Let's coax Billy Beane and Terry Francona out of retirement and go for it!

[John_Havok]

Put them all in a room, roll a grenade in and see who's left.

 

Naw, pull a "Captain america" roll in a fake grenade and fire everyone who doesn't try to jump on it.

[Terminator]

To pull of a quick and decisive rebuild this team would probably need to trade Bo and also do very well in the trade. That is not going to happen. I mean it could happen in the offseason but by the trade deadline is such an awesome pinch point for sellers these days.

 

I agree. The way to re-tool/quickly rebuild would be a Bo trade where we get 2 or 3 MLB ready pieces and then dip into FA to replace his production in the offseason.

 

Dodgers still seem to line up the best but some other teams will emerge too. Don't bite my head off you guys because I have no idea how much we could get for Bo but if we got Miguel Vargas and two of their AAA pitchers (Hurt, Ryan, Casparius, Wrobleski) and then signed Kim in FA, the WC3 spot will be once again easy to make.

[thatoneguy]

Just fire f***ing everyone. This organization is a disgrace.

[Spanky99]

It's definitely true, and it would not make sense to replace Atkins right before the deadline, but it is incredibly unfortunate that the guy that may certainly be fired at the end of the season is the one who will handle major decisions at the deadline that will have strong role in shaping the teams future.

 

If the Jays manage to win even a couple more games than they lose and are still within spitting distance it is of concern that Atkins may be motivated to save his ass.

 

Even if he's not, the idea here is that he's done a poor enough job that he's going to get canned and nonetheless we're stuck with him making these decisions. Unfortunate for the next GM as well.

 

He won't be making these decisions, likely Click and Tinnish, with Shapiro overseeing the final say.

[HomeRunHomer]

Fire John Schneider.

 

 

So sick of his BS.

 

Also the supposed real plan is stupid too.

[The Cats Ass]

I'd try to sign Vladdy to a longterm deal for what he's currently worth. He seems like a prime years Brandon Belt type of player. Trade Bo if he can get hot before the deadline.

[Laika]

I'd try to sign Vladdy to a longterm deal for what he's currently worth. He seems like a prime years Brandon Belt type of player. Trade Bo if he can get hot before the deadline.

 

I feel like this is part of my ideal trade deadline.

 

- Vlad extension and the number is not gross

- Bo gets hot and gets traded

- Berrios contract moved

- Yimi, Jansen, Kikuchi all traded for decent prospects

- Richards moved for whatever

- Romano gets healthy and gets traded for a decent prospect

- IKF, Turner, KK, Green all traded for a B prospect or at least have most of their contracts absorbed

 

Caveat being that the trades need to be handled by Shapiro or Click, or otherwise in some way where it's not desperate Ross Atkins actually pulling the trigger on anything.

And I would hate to see every trade get 2025 tunnel vision. Take some lower minors prospects with upside.

 

Of course, all of that ^ will not happen. It's too many trades to pull off. But maybe most of it can happen.

They probably would not be able to move most of the deadweight veterans.

[The Cats Ass]

I feel like this is part of my ideal trade deadline.

 

- Vlad extension and the number is not gross

- Bo gets hot and gets traded

- Berrios contract moved

- Yimi, Jansen, Kikuchi all traded for decent prospects

- Richards moved for whatever

- Romano gets healthy and gets traded for a decent prospect

- IKF, Turner, KK, Green all traded for a B prospect or at least have most of their contracts absorbed

 

Caveat being that the trades need to be handled by Shapiro or Click, or otherwise in some way where it's not desperate Ross Atkins actually pulling the trigger on anything.

And I would hate to see every trade get 2025 tunnel vision. Take some lower minors prospects with upside.

 

Of course, all of that ^ will not happen. It's too many trades to pull off. But maybe most of it can happen.

They probably would not be able to move most of the deadweight veterans.

 

For guys like Turner or KK I'd like to see the team retain some or a lot of the money if it means a better prospect coming our way since they're just 1 year deals. Luckily it's looking like Turner is turning the corner with his bat and back to his April performance. wRC+ by month is 152, 8, 161.

[Krylian]

I'm curious if there's anyone who think Atkins should still be kept around after this season concludes.

[max silver]

I feel like this is part of my ideal trade deadline.

 

- Vlad extension and the number is not gross

- Bo gets hot and gets traded

- Berrios contract moved

- Yimi, Jansen, Kikuchi all traded for decent prospects

- Richards moved for whatever

- Romano gets healthy and gets traded for a decent prospect

- IKF, Turner, KK, Green all traded for a B prospect or at least have most of their contracts absorbed

 

Caveat being that the trades need to be handled by Shapiro or Click, or otherwise in some way where it's not desperate Ross Atkins actually pulling the trigger on anything.

And I would hate to see every trade get 2025 tunnel vision. Take some lower minors prospects with upside.

 

Of course, all of that ^ will not happen. It's too many trades to pull off. But maybe most of it can happen.

They probably would not be able to move most of the deadweight veterans.

 

If all of these trades occurred I don't know if there would be much of a point to hanging onto either of Gausman and Bassitt at that point as the team would almost certainly be awful for several seasons. There would be far too many holes on the roster for any shot at contention in the immediate future and as such there would be little reason not to do a more complete tear down, Vlad extension aside.

[Laika]

If all of these trades occurred I don't know if there would be much of a point to hanging onto either of Gausman and Bassitt at that point as the team would almost certainly be awful for several seasons. There would be far too many holes on the roster for any shot at contention in the immediate future and as such there would be little reason not to do a more complete tear down, Vlad extension aside.

 

I don't really agree

 

Berrios is pitching like an SP5 anyway

 

Bo would be a big hole but the team would have lots of money to replace him with... some other position player in free agency

 

Almost every other name is a pending FA anyway, or someone with a role that is easier to fill like a reliever

 

Yeah the farm system probably cannot replace all of those names so the powers that be would need to start wheeling and dealing for depth on the margins

[Brownie19]

I don't really agree

 

Berrios is pitching like an SP5 anyway

 

Bo would be a big hole but the team would have lots of money to replace him with... some other position player in free agency

 

Almost every other name is a pending FA anyway, or someone with a role that is easier to fill like a reliever

 

Yeah the farm system probably cannot replace all of those names so the powers that be would need to start wheeling and dealing for depth on the margins

 

Do you think it will be more difficult to attract good FA's in the midst of a rebuild/retool (without severely overpaying)? I think this team became attractive to FA's when we had Vlad/Bo (even Biggio) as the young nucleolus. I'm not so sure players will want to play here now.

[BTS]

It's going to be fun when Atkins is allowed to stick around and every trade is for the best AAA guy they can find. The Oakland A's model.

[glory]

It's going to be fun when Atkins is allowed to stick around and every trade is for the best AAA guy they can find. The Oakland A's model.

 

Yeah whether it's Atkins making the decisions or Shapiro, the trade deadline will likely be used to find as many potential 2025 contributors as they can in order to compete next season. The 2017 deadline is an example of that with Teoscar ready for the bigs but blocked in Houston, and Pannone who looked ready for a AAA promotion when he was acquired. This FO doesn't benefit from acquiring low minors lotto tickets as it's possible the current structure won't even be around by 2026 (depends on what happens with Shapiro). They will look at 2024 as a down year and try again in 2025. It's just a matter of who will be the one making those decisions. Hopefully it's not Atkins.

 

So yeah, look at some AAA rosters for contenders/buyers at the deadline, find guys who are blocked, and you'll see potential Blue Jays in there.

[max silver]

I don't really agree

 

Berrios is pitching like an SP5 anyway

 

Bo would be a big hole but the team would have lots of money to replace him with... some other position player in free agency

 

Almost every other name is a pending FA anyway, or someone with a role that is easier to fill like a reliever

 

Yeah the farm system probably cannot replace all of those names so the powers that be would need to start wheeling and dealing for depth on the margins

 

It's just hard to envision any path towards contention in 2025 if that many players are moved out as it opens up so many holes on the roster. The team would have no starting catcher, no leverage relievers and several holes in the starting rotation. That's why I don't see any reason to not move out Gausman and Bassitt as well as at that point you might as well go full rebuild vs attempting some sort of retool/soft reset.

[Laika]

Do you think it will be more difficult to attract good FA's in the midst of a rebuild/retool (without severely overpaying)? I think this team became attractive to FA's when we had Vlad/Bo (even Biggio) as the young nucleolus. I'm not so sure players will want to play here now.

 

Did they ever want to play here?

 

Ryu was an overpay

Springer was an overpay

Toronto was likely the highest bidder for Gausman and Bassitt

They paid IKF a lot in that market

Turner was the worst of the offseason DH options. It doesn't seem like Pederson or JDM had any interest in Toronto.

KK signed here because Toronto offered him playing time. Maybe that the team was good was part of his decision.

They had to trade for Berrios and Varsho

 

Bo and Vlad have not extended

Nobody has extended. Not Jansen, not anybody.

 

Nobody wants to play up here.

[Laika]

It's just hard to envision any path towards contention in 2025 if that many players are moved out as it opens up so many holes on the roster. The team would have no starting catcher, no leverage relievers and several holes in the starting rotation. That's why I don't see any reason to not move out Gausman and Bassitt as well as at that point you might as well go full rebuild vs attempting some sort of retool/soft reset.

 

Yeah they could also ship out those guys

I doubt anyone wants Bassitt for that money though...

And Gausman, seems like a bad time to sell. I dunno.

[Brownie19]

Did they ever want to play here?

 

Ryu was an overpay

Springer was an overpay

Toronto was likely the highest bidder for Gausman and Bassitt

They paid IKF a lot in that market

Turner was the worst of the offseason DH options. It doesn't seem like Pederson or JDM had any interest in Toronto.

KK signed here because Toronto offered him playing time. Maybe that the team was good was part of his decision.

They had to trade for Berrios and Varsho

 

Bo and Vlad have not extended

Nobody has extended. Not Jansen, not anybody.

 

Nobody wants to play up here.

 

I don't quite see it like that. Ryu was an overpay, but it was also the first time we seemed to be able to land one of the big fish in the FA market. I don't agree that Springer was an overpay. This wasn't a Kris Bryant situation IMO. I suspect the direction of the team played a role in his decision to sign here - it wasn't just money. I would think the same thing for Gausman (and even Bassitt).

 

I think moving forward, that even if we're the highest bidder (unless it's a significant overpay), that players may choose to sign elsewhere now, given the state of the team.

[glory]

Springer was signed post Covid season, so I think the Jays and Padres might have been the only teams actually spending money at the time. Cohen had just taken over as Mets owner so while they could have signed Springer they opted to trade for Lindor instead (right call). Springer was definitely an overpay even at the time. The sixth year was likely the clincher. I think Gausman allegedly had a higher offer from the Mets but chose the Jays, so he might be the only player who looked at situation out of the names listed.

[jaysblue]

I'm curious if there's anyone who think Atkins should still be kept around after this season concludes.

 

Not that difficult to figure out who haha.

[Brownie19]

Springer was signed post Covid season, so I think the Jays and Padres might have been the only teams actually spending money at the time. Cohen had just taken over as Mets owner so while they could have signed Springer they opted to trade for Lindor instead (right call). Springer was definitely an overpay even at the time. The sixth year was likely the clincher. I think Gausman allegedly had a higher offer from the Mets but chose the Jays, so he might be the only player who looked at situation out of the names listed.

 

I'm not sure this is true.

 

Yanks were giving DJ 6 years, $15M AAV

Philly gave Realmuto $115M

LA gave Bauer $21.5M AAV

Oakland gave Hendriks $54M

Philly gave Didi $14M AAV

Boston gave JBJ $12M AAV

 

Did we have to give Springer that 6th year to get him? Probably, but I suspect the AAV we gave him was very similar to what other teams were offering him. He was one of, if not the best FA available. It's not like we had to give him $5M more AAV to land him. Springer's deal looks right in line with the going rate of players in the 2022 FA pool (Correa, Seager, Bryant, Semien, Freeman, Story, Baez, etc.)

[max silver]

Not that difficult to figure out who haha.

 

Yeah the obvious answer at this point is that nobody thinks Atkins should be kept around.

[Laika]

I'm not sure this is true.

 

Yanks were giving DJ 6 years, $15M AAV

Philly gave Realmuto $115M

LA gave Bauer $21.5M AAV

Oakland gave Hendriks $54M

Philly gave Didi $14M AAV

Boston gave JBJ $12M AAV

 

Did we have to give Springer that 6th year to get him? Probably, but I suspect the AAV we gave him was very similar to what other teams were offering him. He was one of, if not the best FA available. It's not like we had to give him $5M more AAV to land him. Springer's deal looks right in line with the going rate of players in the 2022 FA pool (Correa, Seager, Bryant, Semien, Freeman, Story, Baez, etc.)

 

Yeah but it's specifically that 6th year that makes it an overpay. AAV not super relevant. 5/$125 would have been fine.

 

Imagine of 2025 was the last year for Springer here? That would be nice. f***.

 

Hopefully he can figure something out and at least return to a 1.8 WAR player. Just hit .250 with 20 homers please.

[BTS]

I wonder how long they ride things out with Springer if things still look more or less the same for him. Probably like May 2025 is the earliest we'd see a DFA?

[Laika]

I wonder how long they ride things out with Springer if things still look more or less the same for him. Probably like May 2025 is the earliest we'd see a DFA?

 

Doubt they'd even do it then unless the peripherals look different

 

he does have an okay K rate and a .315 xwOBA

 

he really does not be this bad... I don't get it

 

where did the pop go? maxEV is way down