GDT: 3/4 Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (7:07pm et)

[BatFlip]

lol. We were happy. Needed that. Losing again would have sucked! I didn't trash him. Actually after our debate yesterday you convinced me of my incorrect thinking, so I went to a tattoo shop in the SIX on the way to the game and got a big IKF tattooed on my forehead.

 

I just know what IFK is and what he ain't after 2600 PAs. He is a bit like Whit, with a much better mitt and a lower ceiling.

 

BABIP guy who is going to have some hot streaks and lows. Always a + glove.

 

Last year some guys were comparing Whit to Zobrist when he was hot and talking about signing him on a 3/35 ish deal. By the end of '23 all that talk was done. 2/3 of the season to go. Things will normalize.

 

I have a lot of respect for a man who will admit he will wrong and then get a tattoo to show it right on his forehead.

 

I agree, IKF is a bit like Whit, except with a better glove and less of a sourpuss look on his face.

[Brownie19]

lol. We were happy. Needed that. Losing again would have sucked! I didn't trash him. Actually after our debate yesterday you convinced me of my incorrect thinking, so I went to a tattoo shop in the SIX on the way to the game and got a big IKF tattooed on my forehead.

 

I just know what IFK is and what he ain't after 2600 PAs. He is a bit like Whit, with a much better mitt and a lower ceiling.

 

BABIP guy who is going to have some hot streaks and lows. Always a + glove.

 

Last year some guys were comparing Whit to Zobrist when he was hot and talking about signing him on a 3/35 ish deal. By the end of '23 all that talk was done. 2/3 of the season to go. Things will normalize.

 

Congrats on the new tat BC. I generally agree with all of this. I'd be quite pleasantly surprised if IKF kept his wRC+ >100 over the course of a full season, but he's still a useful player on a winning ball club. However, if IKF does finish the year with a 105 wRC+ (or something like that) - will people give the Jays staff credit for his career year? I know the answer to that (staff only hurt players - they have nothing to do with Jansen or Schneider's breakout, Varsho's improvement, etc.), but maybe they've helped him made some tangible adjustments that are leading to a career year. To date, he isn't running a super high and unsustainable BABIP. He's reduced his K% and increased his ISO. Or maybe he's completely tuned out all Jays coaches - that's probably more likely.

[glory]

I don't think it's even a player issue. As soon as there was talk about using the whole field, etc, we stopped hitting for both power AND average. I feel like the boys aren't gripping it and ripping it enough. Everyone has basically turned into a slap hitter trying to draw a walk.

 

Preparation, approach, everything seems off with the hitters since 2023. I tend to agree it’s not all on the players. Something is not right within the org. Atkins being a former minor leaguer in the 90s probably idolized Don Mattingly, so that’s his idea of fixing this offense, and it’s simply not going to work in 2024. They need to do an org wide shift in offensive philosophy/training. If Donaldson has any interest in coaching, then hire him or someone who shares his views on hitting.

[Brownie19]

Preparation, approach, everything seems off with the hitters since 2023. I tend to agree it’s not all on the players. Something is not right within the org. Atkins being a former minor leaguer in the 90s probably idolized Don Mattingly, so that’s his idea of fixing this offense, and it’s simply not going to work in 2024. They need to do an org wide shift in offensive philosophy/training. If Donaldson has any interest in coaching, then hire him or someone who shares his views on hitting.

 

I completely agree that the offense has been awful the past 2 years. But do you really think Atkins went from leading one the best offenses in all of baseball in 2021/22 to saying "you know what, we should change everything!" Do you think he reacted to the league banning shifts by saying "good - now that they can't put 3 guys on one side of the infield, we'll try to pull the ball less". Do you think he looked at the team and said "regardless of what type of hitter you are or what success you've had in the past, everyone on this team must adopt the same approach and shall use the whole field more".

 

Do you think Jansen and Schneider (a couple of our big pull hitters) are simply defying team direction right now? Is Orelvis down in AAA being told to use all fields more? Seems doubtful.

 

I just can't buy any of that. There's just no logic in it. There was discussion about the guy from the O's who worked with O'Hearn yesterday and that he's a big "get on plain early" supporter. That isn't revolutionary at all - I follow TONS of hitting coaches and literally every single coach has been preaching that for the past 5+ years. I haven't found one that say "nope - don't get on plain early - that's the wrong way to do it - you need to chop down on that ball and have immaculate timing!" (some do talk about the "feel" of hitting down on the ball, but feel and results are 2 different things). I'd suggest there's literally zero chance the Jays players are being told to use some alternative prehistoric approach.

 

I get people are searching for answers and they love to pin it down to 1 thing - because that makes it easy to fix, but IMO, there's almost no way it's primarily offensive philosophy of the team that could be fixed easily by simply bringing in Josh Donaldson to replace Donny Baseball. To conjure up this notion that Atkins probably idolized Don Mattingly and that he's here and that he's pushing s***** philosophies that don't work in 2024 is really dumb.

 

The Braves have gone from the best offense in baseball last year (by a MILE) to 18th in baseball this year. AA is on record saying he doesn't know why and if he did, he'd fix it. Did AA bring in his idol to completely change their philosophy to some 90's theme too? See how stupid that sounds?

[Eat My Shatkins]

I completely agree that the offense has been awful the past 2 years. But do you really think Atkins went from leading one the best offenses in all of baseball in 2021/22 to saying "you know what, we should change everything!" Do you think he reacted to the league banning shifts by saying "good - now that they can't put 3 guys on one side of the infield, we'll try to pull the ball less". Do you think he looked at the team and said "regardless of what type of hitter you are or what success you've had in the past, everyone on this team must adopt the same approach and shall use the whole field more".

 

Do you think Jansen and Schneider (a couple of our big pull hitters) are simply defying team direction right now? Is Orelvis down in AAA being told to use all fields more? Seems doubtful.

 

I just can't buy any of that. There's just no logic in it. There was discussion about the guy from the O's who worked with O'Hearn yesterday and that he's a big "get on plain early" supporter. That isn't revolutionary at all - I follow TONS of hitting coaches and literally every single coach has been preaching that for the past 5+ years. I haven't found one that say "nope - don't get on plain early - that's the wrong way to do it - you need to chop down on that ball and have immaculate timing!" (some do talk about the "feel" of hitting down on the ball, but feel and results are 2 different things). I'd suggest there's literally zero chance the Jays players are being told to use some alternative prehistoric approach.

 

I get people are searching for answers and they love to pin it down to 1 thing - because that makes it easy to fix, but IMO, there's almost no way it's primarily offensive philosophy of the team that could be fixed easily by simply bringing in Josh Donaldson to replace Donny Baseball. To conjure up this notion that Atkins probably idolized Don Mattingly and that he's here and that he's pushing s***** philosophies that don't work in 2024 is really dumb.

 

The Braves have gone from the best offense in baseball last year (by a MILE) to 18th in baseball this year. AA is on record saying he doesn't know why and if he did, he'd fix it. Did AA bring in his idol to completely change their philosophy to some 90's theme too? See how stupid that sounds?

 

I've said it many times, the Jays did the right thing after 2022, they sacrificed a little offense (Teo and Gurriel) for improved defense (Varsho and KK) but what they didn't count on was Springer, Kirk and Vladdys bats all s***ing the bed, plus Varsho also didn't have a good year at the plate either. Like way below projections.

 

Varsho bounced back so far this year, but Kirk and Springer are even worse which is unbelievable. And while Vladdy has been better at the plate, that has been offset by Bo sporting a 80 wRC+

 

Springer s***ing the bed can be passed off due to age, although you wouldn't expect that much of a drop off that quickly, but it happens.

 

The core of Vlad Bo and Kirk just ain't what we thought it was.

[Stangstag]

I completely agree that the offense has been awful the past 2 years. But do you really think Atkins went from leading one the best offenses in all of baseball in 2021/22 to saying "you know what, we should change everything!" Do you think he reacted to the league banning shifts by saying "good - now that they can't put 3 guys on one side of the infield, we'll try to pull the ball less". Do you think he looked at the team and said "regardless of what type of hitter you are or what success you've had in the past, everyone on this team must adopt the same approach and shall use the whole field more".

 

Do you think Jansen and Schneider (a couple of our big pull hitters) are simply defying team direction right now? Is Orelvis down in AAA being told to use all fields more? Seems doubtful.

 

I just can't buy any of that. There's just no logic in it. There was discussion about the guy from the O's who worked with O'Hearn yesterday and that he's a big "get on plain early" supporter. That isn't revolutionary at all - I follow TONS of hitting coaches and literally every single coach has been preaching that for the past 5+ years. I haven't found one that say "nope - don't get on plain early - that's the wrong way to do it - you need to chop down on that ball and have immaculate timing!" (some do talk about the "feel" of hitting down on the ball, but feel and results are 2 different things). I'd suggest there's literally zero chance the Jays players are being told to use some alternative prehistoric approach.

 

I get people are searching for answers and they love to pin it down to 1 thing - because that makes it easy to fix, but IMO, there's almost no way it's primarily offensive philosophy of the team that could be fixed easily by simply bringing in Josh Donaldson to replace Donny Baseball. To conjure up this notion that Atkins probably idolized Don Mattingly and that he's here and that he's pushing s***** philosophies that don't work in 2024 is really dumb.

 

The Braves have gone from the best offense in baseball last year (by a MILE) to 18th in baseball this year. AA is on record saying he doesn't know why and if he did, he'd fix it. Did AA bring in his idol to completely change their philosophy to some 90's theme too? See how stupid that sounds?

 

Yes. I think he got too cute trying to get "ahead of the curve" and it has backfired immensely.

[Terminator]

lol. We were happy. Needed that. Losing again would have sucked! I didn't trash him. Actually after our debate yesterday you convinced me of my incorrect thinking, so I went to a tattoo shop in the SIX on the way to the game and got a big IKF tattooed on my forehead.

 

I just know what IFK is and what he ain't after 2600 PAs. He is a bit like Whit, with a much better mitt and a lower ceiling.

 

BABIP guy who is going to have some hot streaks and lows. Always a + glove.

 

Last year some guys were comparing Whit to Zobrist when he was hot and talking about signing him on a 3/35 ish deal. By the end of '23 all that talk was done. 2/3 of the season to go. Things will normalize.

 

Lol I'm just kidding ya but that was a great game to go to. I thought about you and your son after the win. Would have been a brutal loss after the first two. The players looked relieved.

[Brownie19]

Yes. I think he got too cute trying to get "ahead of the curve" and it has backfired immensely.

 

Trying to get ahead of what curve? The only thing that seems logical is to counteract the league's change to more breaking balls, they want hitters to stay back and use the whole field, which they think will help them adapt to the massive increase in off-speed pitches? Maybe something to do with the elimination of the juiced balls? I guess that could be it? I don't know. Adjustments based on the shift rule don't make sense.

 

But again, it's not like everyone has changed. Jano's not trying to use the whole field.

[Stangstag]

Trying to get ahead of what curve? The only thing that seems logical is to counteract the league's change to more breaking balls, they want hitters to stay back and use the whole field, which they think will help them adapt to the massive increase in off-speed pitches? Maybe something to do with the elimination of the juiced balls? I guess that could be it? I don't know. Adjustments based on the shift rule don't make sense.

 

But again, it's not like everyone has changed. Jano's not trying to use the whole field.

 

That is true, but you can't really deny that MOST of the hitters changed their approach in 2023, including Matt Chapman. He used to be a dead pull guy and started hitting oppo for some reason (which worked for 1 month). 90% of our lineup started going oppo/CF way more often than they ever did before.

[glory]

I completely agree that the offense has been awful the past 2 years. But do you really think Atkins went from leading one the best offenses in all of baseball in 2021/22 to saying "you know what, we should change everything!" Do you think he reacted to the league banning shifts by saying "good - now that they can't put 3 guys on one side of the infield, we'll try to pull the ball less". Do you think he looked at the team and said "regardless of what type of hitter you are or what success you've had in the past, everyone on this team must adopt the same approach and shall use the whole field more".

 

Do you think Jansen and Schneider (a couple of our big pull hitters) are simply defying team direction right now? Is Orelvis down in AAA being told to use all fields more? Seems doubtful.

 

I just can't buy any of that. There's just no logic in it. There was discussion about the guy from the O's who worked with O'Hearn yesterday and that he's a big "get on plain early" supporter. That isn't revolutionary at all - I follow TONS of hitting coaches and literally every single coach has been preaching that for the past 5+ years. I haven't found one that say "nope - don't get on plain early - that's the wrong way to do it - you need to chop down on that ball and have immaculate timing!" (some do talk about the "feel" of hitting down on the ball, but feel and results are 2 different things). I'd suggest there's literally zero chance the Jays players are being told to use some alternative prehistoric approach.

 

I get people are searching for answers and they love to pin it down to 1 thing - because that makes it easy to fix, but IMO, there's almost no way it's primarily offensive philosophy of the team that could be fixed easily by simply bringing in Josh Donaldson to replace Donny Baseball. To conjure up this notion that Atkins probably idolized Don Mattingly and that he's here and that he's pushing s***** philosophies that don't work in 2024 is really dumb.

 

The Braves have gone from the best offense in baseball last year (by a MILE) to 18th in baseball this year. AA is on record saying he doesn't know why and if he did, he'd fix it. Did AA bring in his idol to completely change their philosophy to some 90's theme too? See how stupid that sounds?

 

Your Braves comparison is not applicable here. You're comparing a 2 month sample size (Braves) to something going on 2 years now (Jays). No one was questioning the Jays offensive strategy at this time in 2023 because the sample was small enough to where more people were expecting things to turn around than questioning whether there was an issue. Now it does feel like a real issue. If the Braves are still hitting like this 12 months from now, I don't think they'd promote their existing coaches, but who knows.

 

I think you're taking the "idolized Mattingly" thing a little too seriously. My point is Atkins is old school (he only looks like a nerd), and promoting Donnie Baseball after what we saw in 2023 made absolutely no sense. This contact heavy approach is all over the organization, so it's not even Donnie in isolation, it's the entire org, that's why it's hard to pinpoint what exactly the issue is or how/why it started. I don't think it's as simple as "the players who used to be really good all just began sucking in their mid 20's". There is a reason why this team hasn't developed a good position player since Bo/Vlad other than Davis Schneider, and they literally had him sitting on the bench for Cavan Biggio in April. I don't think it's pinned down to "1 thing". I just like talking s*** about Mattingly, but it's all over the org, and if change happens, it has to happen everywhere, not just at the big league level.

Edited June 6, 2024 by glory

[Brownie19]

That is true, but you can't really deny that MOST of the hitters changed their approach in 2023, including Matt Chapman. He used to be a dead pull guy and started hitting oppo for some reason (which worked for 1 month). 90% of our lineup started going oppo/CF way more often than they ever did before.

 

It is interesting how it worked so well for Chapman for that 1 month and he did talk about how he was trying to stay up the middle more (which to be fair was after he'd struggled for a couple of years to recreate the success he had in 2018/19) and then it all just completely went to s***. It's also interesting that his Pull% in 2023 was actually a lot closer to what it was when he had to his best years in 2018/19. It's also interesting that he's pulling the ball even LESS in SF this year.

 

Did Chapman ever specifically say it was the organization that suggested he try to stay up the middle more in 2023? It may have been his own decision or his own private hitting coach who was suggesting that.

 

As for the rest of the team let's have a look:

 

- first off, Vlad had his HIGHEST career Pull% in 2023...

- Bo's Pull% has dropped every single year since his rookie year...no sign of a "new approach" here

- Springer - his Pull% dropped last year, but it dropped back to where it was from 2016-2019 when he was a stud

- Kirk, like Bo, has seen his Pull% drop for 4 straight years now

- Jansen - he pulls the ball a ton

- Varsho - Pull% was still 51% last year, but yes it dropped 3% from 2022, but was still WELL above his 2021 season.

- KK - Pull% was WAY up from his previous 2 years in TB

- Belt - Pull% was above his career average

 

Someone tell me where this narrative is coming from because I don't see it in the results. Chapman and Springer seem to be the 2 that stand out and both were pulling the ball about as much as they have in previous years when they've had a lot of success. I just don't see it guys and it's almost hilarious that Vlad set a career high in Pull% last year when people believe the FO implemented some org wide change to use the whole field more.

 

The offense is broken, but I'm calling BS on this narrative.

Edited June 6, 2024 by Brownie19

[Stangstag]

It is interesting how it worked so well for Chapman for that 1 month and he did talk about how he was trying to stay up the middle more (which to be fair was after he'd struggled for a couple of years to recreate the success he had in 2018/19) and then it all just completely went to s***. It's also interesting that his Pull% in 2023 was actually a lot closer to what it was when he had to his best years in 2018/19. It's also interesting that he's pulling the ball even LESS in SF this year.

 

Did Chapman ever specifically say it was the organization that suggested he try to stay up the middle more in 2023? It may have been his own decision or his own private hitting coach who was suggesting that.

 

As for the rest of the team let's have a look:

 

- first off, Vlad had his HIGHEST career Pull% in 2023...

- Bo's Pull% has dropped every single year since his rookie year...no sign of a "new approach" here

- Springer - his Pull% dropped last year, but it dropped back to where it was from 2016-2019 when he was a stud

- Kirk, like Bo, has seen his Pull% drop for 4 straight years now

- Jansen - he pulls the ball a ton

- Varsho - Pull% was still 51% last year, but yes it dropped 3% from 2022, but was still WELL above his 2021 season.

- KK - Pull% was WAY up from his previous 2 years in TB

- Belt - Pull% was above his career average

 

Someone tell me where this narrative is coming from because I don't see it in the results. Chapman and Springer seem to be the 2 that stand out and both were pulling the ball about as much as they have in previous years when they've had a lot of success. I just don't see it guys and it's almost hilarious that Vlad set a career high in Pull% last year when people believe the FO implemented some org wide change to use the whole field more.

 

The offense is broken, but I'm calling BS on this narrative.

 

Specifically on Chapman, his pull rate on flyballs was WAY down in 2023. Just check out these numbers: https://imgur.com/a/RYlcSaH

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/matt-chapman/16505/splits?season=0&position=3B&split=3.2

 

Pull rate is abysmal, and the Centre rate of 45% easily explains why he missed out on a s*** ton of homers.

 

If we continue to look at flyball rates, Springer's page is similar... though his is weird in that he seemed to go oppo more in his younger years, then when he came to the Jays he had a very high pull rate between 2021-2022 before going back to his early career splits.

 

Vlad is a hard one to figure out, but his centre% was closer to the 40% he was sporting in 2019-2020 vs his good years in 2021-2022.

 

Anyways you could do a full analysis and dive much deeper into this, I just find it extremely difficult to pass off as a coincidence that most of our guys started pulling the ball less all at the same time.

[Stangstag]

And I do think its important to not just look at pull/oppo/centre rates as a whole, but to look at splits between flyballs/liners/grounders too

[Brownie19]

And I do think its important to not just look at pull/oppo/centre rates as a whole, but to look at splits between flyballs/liners/grounders too

 

Yeah - that's fair. Perhaps my breakdown was too simplistic.

[John_Havok]

Yeah - that's fair. Perhaps my breakdown was too simplistic.

 

I was going to mention this also, it's the same with Vlad. Overall pull rate might be similar to 2021 last year but it was mostly groundballs.

 

This year, highest groundball rate of his career, lowest pull rate of his career. I'm not sure but it seems awfully coincidental that his damage against fastballs is also garbage.

Whatever approach is being preached to him, it's completely df***ing wrong for a guy with his power ability. He should be looking inner half fastballs to put into the LF seats, instead, the only HRs he hits are hanging breaking balls that anyone could hit out and hangers really don't come around that often.

[Stangstag]

I was going to mention this also, it's the same with Vlad. Overall pull rate might be similar to 2021 last year but it was mostly groundballs.

 

This year, highest groundball rate of his career, lowest pull rate of his career. I'm not sure but it seems awfully coincidental that his damage against fastballs is also garbage.

Whatever approach is being preached to him, it's completely df***ing wrong for a guy with his power ability. He should be looking inner half fastballs to put into the LF seats, instead, the only HRs he hits are hanging breaking balls that anyone could hit out and hangers really don't come around that often.

 

For Vlad, it feels to me like he has no approach. There’s too many times where he takes a straight fastball down the middle for strike 1. Or he’ll swing on a first pitch breaking ball way out of the zone and then watch a straight fastball down the middle the very next pitch. Other times he’ll roll over weakly on breaking ball down the middle. He’s just all over the place.

 

I think he just kinda swings at anything and sometimes makes good contact like we saw today.

[glory]

I was going to mention this also, it's the same with Vlad. Overall pull rate might be similar to 2021 last year but it was mostly groundballs.

 

This year, highest groundball rate of his career, lowest pull rate of his career. I'm not sure but it seems awfully coincidental that his damage against fastballs is also garbage.

Whatever approach is being preached to him, it's completely df***ing wrong for a guy with his power ability. He should be looking inner half fastballs to put into the LF seats, instead, the only HRs he hits are hanging breaking balls that anyone could hit out and hangers really don't come around that often.

 

What's crazy is Vlad killed fastballs as recently as 2022 (.586 SLG and .403 xwOBA against 4SFB's that year). It's gotten progressively worse since despite exit velocity, hard hit rate, etc, still being excellent. There's not a doubt in my mind now that the next team Vlad is on will unlock his potential.

[Olerud363]

What's crazy is Vlad killed fastballs as recently as 2022 (.586 SLG and .403 xwOBA against 4SFB's that year). It's gotten progressively worse since despite exit velocity, hard hit rate, etc, still being excellent. There's not a doubt in my mind now that the next team Vlad is on will unlock his potential.

 

No doubt in my mind that is the Red Sox. He will be the next David Ortiz for them and in 2040 he will be a 350 pound 41 year old hitting .300 with 30 homers for them still and having a big good bye party.

 

Vlad Guerrero Blue Jays .280 .170 homers 750 rbis mostly sadness

Vlad Guerrero Jr. Red Sox .330 500 homers unbelievable happiness and a legend that adds to the fabric of the city.

 

2028 Commissioner Shapiro Speech

 

"Baseball is a game of legends, a game of generations, a game for fathers and sons. There is no greater Joy for me as commissioner than to watch the 2028 Red Sox/Yankees rivalry lead by legendary hitters Juan Soto, and Vladimir Guerrero JR. Which one is better? I will leave that to the fans to debate, but the game is healthy, the fans are happy, and the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry is better than ever. Let's all cheer for Vlad and Juan Soto. Congratulations Yankees and Red Sox"

 

(That was a special baseball message of happiness from future commissioner Mark Shapiro)

[Stangstag]

No doubt in my mind that is the Red Sox. He will be the next David Ortiz for them and in 2040 he will be a 350 pound 41 year old hitting .300 with 30 homers for them still and having a big good bye party.

 

Vlad Guerrero Blue Jays .280 .170 homers 750 rbis mostly sadness

Vlad Guerrero Jr. Red Sox .330 500 homers unbelievable happiness and a legend that adds to the fabric of the city.

 

2028 Commissioner Shapiro Speech

 

"Baseball is a game of legends, a game of generations, a game for fathers and sons. There is no greater Joy for me as commissioner than to watch the 2028 Red Sox/Yankees rivalry lead by legendary hitters Juan Soto, and Vladimir Guerrero JR. Which one is better? I will leave that to the fans to debate, but the game is healthy, the fans are happy, and the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry is better than ever. Let's all cheer for Vlad and Juan Soto. Congratulations Yankees and Red Sox"

 

(That was a special baseball message of happiness from future commissioner Mark Shapiro)

 

Why are you so weird

[Omar]

Why are you so weird

 

Weird? Olerud363 is a visionary.