GDT - KC Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays (3/3) 3:07pm ET

[Stangstag]

Pretty much this. The amount of excuses you hear from some people hear, you'd think they're on the Jays payroll. If not, expect better from a big market team.

 

We are slowly seeing this team go backwards and we all know this team will look even worse once we're forced to resolve the Bo/Vlad contracts one way or another. Extremely disappointing considering where we were in 2021 when the possibilities seemed endless.

 

Yeah. They seemed primed and ready to go on a tear after 2021. Like the Orioles looked in 2022.

 

Orioles continuing an upwards trajectory while the Jays are trending down.

 

f***in sad man

[Sorrow]

The biggest issue Toronto has is Vlad Guerrero. The front office built around Guerrero being who he was in 2021, and based on the tools and the MiLB pedigree really who could blame them. Who would have thought that even with a decline in production that you're getting at best 55% of what he was in 2021 and we're now in the second season in a row where it's looking like even that 55% is almost out of reach. He's become a 1 win, 120 wRC+ 1B who should be a full time DH. If he was even 75% of what he was in 2021 we're talking about a star, 4.5 win player with a 140 wRC+ bat that would really compliment the 130 that Jansen has done since the start of 2022 (Jays best hitter in that period) or Bichette's 120 in that time frame. The sad reality is because of Guerrero being a bust it likely cratered the window that should have existed, and if Guerrero's 2021 never happened this team likely looks a lot different.

 

Can't change the past but I'm hopeful that Guerrero can turn back into 2022 Vlad and we may be able to trade him for some good assets but I feel like we're looking at a player who's going to be non-tendered this winter if he's not traded this season.

 

If Jackson Holliday busts it would be similar in scope to Guerrero being as big a bust as he has been.

[Brownie19]

The biggest issue Toronto has is Vlad Guerrero. The front office built around Guerrero being who he was in 2021, and based on the tools and the MiLB pedigree really who could blame them. Who would have thought that even with a decline in production that you're getting at best 55% of what he was in 2021 and we're now in the second season in a row where it's looking like even that 55% is almost out of reach. He's become a 1 win, 120 wRC+ 1B who should be a full time DH. If he was even 75% of what he was in 2021 we're talking about a star, 4.5 win player with a 140 wRC+ bat that would really compliment the 130 that Jansen has done since the start of 2022 (Jays best hitter in that period) or Bichette's 120 in that time frame. The sad reality is because of Guerrero being a bust it likely cratered the window that should have existed, and if Guerrero's 2021 never happened this team likely looks a lot different.

 

Can't change the past but I'm hopeful that Guerrero can turn back into 2022 Vlad and we may be able to trade him for some good assets but I feel like we're looking at a player who's going to be non-tendered this winter if he's not traded this season.

 

If Jackson Holliday busts it would be similar in scope to Guerrero being as big a bust as he has been.

 

Bang on. I said it a few days ago. If you had 100 players like Vlad, who were the #1 prospect in baseball, then coming off a 166 wRC+, 6.3 WAR season at age 22....how many times would they become a 115-120 wRC+, 1 WAR player by age 25? Maybe 3-5 times? It feels like someone would have to actively sabotage Vlad to be this bad. I can't blame the FO for building around him and I'm not sure I can blame them for this outcome. It's been crippling for this franchise unfortunately.

[Sorrow]

Bang on. I said it a few days ago. If you had 100 players like Vlad, who were the #1 prospect in baseball, then coming off a 166 wRC+, 6.3 WAR season at age 22....how many times would they become a 115-120 wRC+, 1 WAR player by age 25? Maybe 3-5 times? It feels like someone would have to actively sabotage Vlad to be this bad. I can't blame the FO for building around him and I'm not sure I can blame them for this outcome. It's been crippling for this franchise unfortunately.

 

I’m genuinely at the point where I think his decline has been due to the knee and wrist injuries and he can’t swing the bat like he once did.

[Brownie19]

I’m genuinely at the point where I think his decline has been due to the knee and wrist injuries and he can’t swing the bat like he once did.

 

Yeah - there could be something to that. He's still able to generate the EV, but the bat path seems all f***ed up. I believe Bellinger had similar issues following his shoulder injury - the flexibility he needed to generate the swing he had during his MVP season simply wasn't there.

[Laika]

Closest thing in recent history might be Victor Robles. He, like Vlad, was a special prospect getting 65+ FV grades and arguable #1 prospect consideration

 

4 WAR at 22 years old then immediately replacement level forever

 

Yoan Moncada was 70 FV prospect and had 5 WAR at 24 years old then... one dead cat bounce after

Benintendi was 65 FV and 4.4 WAR at 23 then sucked (mostly)

Meadows was 65 FV then 4 WAR at 24 then horrible

Alex Reyes was 65 FV but injuries

Eloy was 65 FV but injuries

Franco was 70-80 FV then pedophilia

Whitley was 65 FV then sucked and injuries

Royce Lewis was 65 FV and cannot stay healthy

Lux was 70 FV then sucked

Gore was 70 FV has not lived up to that

Adell 65 FV then strikeouts

 

This is only looking at Fangraphs since 2017 and who they put 65+ FV grades on

 

Maybe we lick our fan wounds too much RE Vlad? I know some of the language around him as a prospect was hyperbolic ("messianic hit tool") but we all knew he was a zero speed zero defense player with immense pressure on the stick and we all know or should realize that 65+ FV still fail or disappoint at a decent clip.

 

He's a bum. Need to get over it. Realistically he had less than a coin flip's chance of being the player we hoped, anyway. The projection systems are misleading. ZiPS is a liar. Steamer cannot be trusted.

[Stangstag]

Bang on. I said it a few days ago. If you had 100 players like Vlad, who were the #1 prospect in baseball, then coming off a 166 wRC+, 6.3 WAR season at age 22....how many times would they become a 115-120 wRC+, 1 WAR player by age 25? Maybe 3-5 times? It feels like someone would have to actively sabotage Vlad to be this bad. I can't blame the FO for building around him and I'm not sure I can blame them for this outcome. It's been crippling for this franchise unfortunately.

 

It’s happening to quite a few guys recently though, so not entirely unheard of.

 

Bellinger and Bryant are 2 big ones. Both MVPs and then fell off a cliff. Bellinger looks to have rebounded a bit but the jury is still out.

 

Some others off the top of my head… Matt Chapman? Javier Baez? Jason Heyward?

 

Its not exactly uncommon

[Laika]

It’s happening to quite a few guys recently though, so not entirely unheard of.

 

Bellinger and Bryant are 2 big ones. Both MVPs and then fell off a cliff. Bellinger looks to have rebounded a bit but the jury is still out.

 

Some others off the top of my head… Matt Chapman? Javier Baez? Jason Heyward?

 

Its not exactly uncommon

 

Those guys all mashed for most of their 20s though. Gave the teams that developed them huge amounts of value.

[Stangstag]

Those guys all mashed for most of their 20s though. Gave the teams that developed them huge amounts of value.

 

Not really?? They all have more WAR because they actually play good D.

 

But all the guys on that list had 1 or 2 elite seasons with the bat and a bunch of OK years, and more recently forgot how to hit altogether.

 

Pretty similar to Vlad

[Stangstag]

Take Bryant off the list he was good for longer than I thought

[Brownie19]

Closest thing in recent history might be Victor Robles. He, like Vlad, was a special prospect getting 65+ FV grades and arguable #1 prospect consideration

 

4 WAR at 22 years old then immediately replacement level forever

 

Yoan Moncada was 70 FV prospect and had 5 WAR at 24 years old then... one dead cat bounce after

Benintendi was 65 FV and 4.4 WAR at 23 then sucked (mostly)

Meadows was 65 FV then 4 WAR at 24 then horrible

Alex Reyes was 65 FV but injuries

Eloy was 65 FV but injuries

Franco was 70-80 FV then pedophilia

Whitley was 65 FV then sucked and injuries

Royce Lewis was 65 FV and cannot stay healthy

Lux was 70 FV then sucked

Gore was 70 FV has not lived up to that

Adell 65 FV then strikeouts

 

This is only looking at Fangraphs since 2017 and who they put 65+ FV grades on

 

Maybe we lick our fan wounds too much RE Vlad? I know some of the language around him as a prospect was hyperbolic ("messianic hit tool") but we all knew he was a zero speed zero defense player with immense pressure on the stick and we all know or should realize that 65+ FV still fail or disappoint at a decent clip.

 

He's a bum. Need to get over it. Realistically he had less than a coin flip's chance of being the player we hoped, anyway. The projection systems are misleading. ZiPS is a liar. Steamer cannot be trusted.

 

Fair - but it certainly felt like Vlad was a level above all of those guys (except for Franco, who's a special case). He was viewed as a generational talent, who hit like a generational talent at age 22, when most college draftees are in their first full season in the minors. I think a guy like Nate Pearson groups well with some of these guys (Reyes, Whitley, Lux, Gore, Adell), while Kirk kind of does? (Moncada, Benintendi, Eloy, Meadows, Robles)....although Kirk came onto the scene so fast that he didn't have the same prospect pedigree as some.

 

I also find it hard to group in the guys who got hurt - like Eloy, Meadows, Lewis....if Vlad was just hurt all the time, that may justify his demise a bit more (and maybe his abilities are REALLY affected by his past injuries - but nobody is reporting or talking about that?).

[BigCecil]

It’s happening to quite a few guys recently though, so not entirely unheard of.

 

Bellinger and Bryant are 2 big ones. Both MVPs and then fell off a cliff. Bellinger looks to have rebounded a bit but the jury is still out.

 

Some others off the top of my head… Matt Chapman? Javier Baez? Jason Heyward?

 

Its not exactly uncommon

 

Happens quite often injury or performance, or other situations. It doesn't just happen for the Jays.

 

I can't imagine the Rays sit around talking about what was and what might have been much, after seeing their generational talent SS Wander Franco thrown out of MLB unexpectedly.

 

Etc. Etc. Thats why FOs gets paid the big bucks. Their true value is actually measured in how they adapt to these various situations, variables and realties.

[Brownie19]

It’s happening to quite a few guys recently though, so not entirely unheard of.

 

Bellinger and Bryant are 2 big ones. Both MVPs and then fell off a cliff. Bellinger looks to have rebounded a bit but the jury is still out.

 

Some others off the top of my head… Matt Chapman? Javier Baez? Jason Heyward?

 

Its not exactly uncommon

 

Bryant was in his first full season in the minors when Vlad was challenging for the AL MVP. That's a huge difference IMO. Bellinger is a good example - but we generally knew why he fell off a cliff. Major shoulder injury that f***ed up his range of motion. If Vlad had major knee surgery in 2022 and was playing the way he currently is - we'd all go "well that injury f***ed him over. What a sad story of a player who could have been a HOFer". To some extent - that's what happened to Chapman too with the hip injury. He's never really been the same (and is nowhere near the same story as Vlad).

 

Jason Heyward is a pretty good example. He was the #1 prospect in baseball - advance approach at the plate, in the majors at age 20 (with success), big time season at age 22. Heyward never did develop with the bat the way most people thought he would, but he was still a 5.6 WAR player at age 25 before he fell off a cliff.

 

IMO, Vlad was up with these types of prospects.

 

Soto

Harper

Franco

Miggy

Acuna

 

The other example that does come to mind is like Delmon Young - but he never did have a HUGE season of success. Same with a guy like Profar. Maybe Buxton too - but we know it's been injuries that f***ed him over.

[Stangstag]

Bryant was in his first full season in the minors when Vlad was challenging for the AL MVP. That's a huge difference IMO. Bellinger is a good example - but we generally knew why he fell off a cliff. Major shoulder injury that f***ed up his range of motion. If Vlad had major knee surgery in 2022 and was playing the way he currently is - we'd all go "well that injury f***ed him over. What a sad story of a player who could have been a HOFer". To some extent - that's what happened to Chapman too with the hip injury. He's never really been the same (and is nowhere near the same story as Vlad).

 

Jason Heyward is a pretty good example. He was the #1 prospect in baseball - advance approach at the plate, in the majors at age 20 (with success), big time season at age 22. Heyward never did develop with the bat the way most people thought he would, but he was still a 5.6 WAR player at age 25 before he fell off a cliff.

 

IMO, Vlad was up with these types of prospects.

 

Soto

Harper

Franco

Miggy

Acuna

 

The other example that does come to mind is like Delmon Young - but he never did have a HUGE season of success. Same with a guy like Profar. Maybe Buxton too - but we know it's been injuries that f***ed him over.

 

Ah yes the infamous Delmon Young. Thats a good comp

[Brownie19]

Happens quite often injury or performance, or other situations. It doesn't just happen for the Jays.

 

I can't imagine the Rays sit around talking about what was and what might have been much, after seeing their generational talent SS Wander Franco thrown out of MLB unexpectedly.

 

Etc. Etc. Thats why FOs gets paid the big bucks. Their true value is actually measured in how they adapt to these various situations, variables and realties.

 

That's fair, but it's also fair to suggest that when that happens with 4 of your top prospects (Vlad, Kirk, Manoah, Pearson), plus Bo? in the span of 2-3 years that it's going to be REALLY hard to adapt and succeed like nothing happened. Tampa may be finding that out right now with McClanahan and Franco out (they're a unique case though).

[Orgfiller]

Happens quite often injury or performance, or other situations. It doesn't just happen for the Jays.

 

I can't imagine the Rays sit around talking about what was and what might have been much, after seeing their generational talent SS Wander Franco thrown out of MLB unexpectedly.

 

Etc. Etc. Thats why FOs gets paid the big bucks. Their true value is actually measured in how they adapt to these various situations, variables and realties.

 

If you don't think there's a certain level of depression in the Rays' FO, that their 80 grade prospect who was on the verge of breaking out into a perennial 5+ WAR stud threw his whole career away, then I think you're giving them a lot more credit than they deserve, and that's saying a lot. Imagine having to replace a guy like that, one whom you've finally gotten signed for the foreseeable future, face of the franchise, with Jose f***ing Caballero. The Rays are in last place right now, they got zero value for the most valuable piece in franchise history (toe to toe with Evan Longoria).

 

They're not gonna dwell on it forever, but they're in a significantly different spot than they were prior to the news breaking. Arozarena has sucked this year, Yandy Diaz has sucked, Jose Siri sucks, all of their pitchers are hurt.

[Stangstag]

That's fair, but it's also fair to suggest that when that happens with 4 of your top prospects (Vlad, Kirk, Manoah, Pearson), plus Bo? in the span of 2-3 years that it's going to be REALLY hard to adapt and succeed like nothing happened. Tampa may be finding that out right now with McClanahan and Franco out (they're a unique case though).

 

Idk why we’re adding Bo here. He’s off to a slow start but its no different than his 2022 season.

 

Bo at least has a track record of consistency over the course of a season

[Brownie19]

Idk why we’re adding Bo here. He’s off to a slow start but its no different than his 2022 season.

 

Bo at least has a track record of consistency over the course of a season

 

Agreed - hence the question mark. I'm still a firm believer that Bo will hit and that Bo is a very good baseball player, but some around here hate him. Someone also just posted his #'s since his injury late last year and they aren't pretty. Would be interesting to know if that's still affecting his mobility/flexibility/etc.

[Stangstag]

Agreed - hence the question mark. I'm still a firm believer that Bo will hit and that Bo is a very good baseball player, but some around here hate him. Someone also just posted his #'s since his injury late last year and they aren't pretty. Would be interesting to know if that's still affecting his mobility/flexibility/etc.

 

Really gotta wonder if all of our guys are playing through injuries they shouldn’t be. Remember the Springer saga in 2021? Dude was playing with a damn knee brace at times

[Stangstag]

Maybe that’s where the organizational philosophy is rotten

[glory]

Idk why we’re adding Bo here. He’s off to a slow start but its no different than his 2022 season.

 

Bo at least has a track record of consistency over the course of a season

 

The thing with Bichette is that his profile is so risky that he’s a player I could easily seeing falling off a cliff with no warning. Not saying I expect it to happen this season but it also wouldn’t surprise me if he did.

[Stangstag]

The thing with Bichette is that his profile is so risky that he’s a player I could easily seeing falling off a cliff with no warning. Not saying I expect it to happen this season but it also wouldn’t surprise me if he did.

 

Yeah that’s fair, which is why I think we should probably just move on from both Bo and Vlad next year. I wouldn’t sign either guy long-term.

[Brownie19]

Maybe that’s where the organizational philosophy is rotten

 

You think they're implementing an old skool "toughen up kid and get back out there - don't be a pussy. we want every day players, who grind it out and play through injuries" philosophy when players are hurt? I mean, I guess? I'd actually expect most on here would support that approach over the new age "load management" philosophy.

[Brownie19]

Yeah that’s fair, which is why I think we should probably just move on from both Bo and Vlad next year. I wouldn’t sign either guy long-term.

 

Yeah - I agree. Bo's profile is concerning unless you think his hit tool is just so elite that he can sustain that long term, even as his bat speed declines and he moves to 2nd base. For what he'll cost - I think there's a ton of risk there.

[Stangstag]

You think they're implementing an old skool "toughen up kid and get back out there - don't be a pussy. we want every day players, who grind it out and play through injuries" philosophy when players are hurt? I mean, I guess? I'd actually expect most on here would support that approach over the new age "load management" philosophy.

 

I support whatever approach gets us the most out of our players

[june.june]

Unreal that until now Guillermo Martinez is still coaching this team.

 

Case in Point: Justin Turner was red hot coming off a magnificent offensive season with the Red Sox, carried that over early on the with the Jays. Then the potent stain of Guillermo rubbed off of him, handed him that IPad and likely gave him pointers about the mechanics of hitting and the rest is history. Justin Turner became another 9th hitter of this team.

 

Fire the guy !

[Brownie19]

I support whatever approach gets us the most out of our players

 

touché

 

I wonder how much influence the players have in that decision. Some may pride themselves in being everyday players. They want to be old skool, having idolized Cal Ripken as a kid. I wonder if there are some who get all pissy and negative in the clubhouse when the team sits them to allow them to heal up or make efforts to "get the most out of them" per say.