Blue Jays Reportedly In Agreement With Yariel Rodríguez

[L54]

It’s not that it seems to be a bad deal. It’s just resources teams like BAL or TAM don’t need to spend money on. That’s $50m committed addressed the biggest team deficiency from last season. Teams usually address what most got them bounced. Maybe the Jays execs are bucking their peers methods due to reading about randomness here

 

What does Baltimore spend money on?

[Key22]

It’s not that it seems to be a bad deal. It’s just resources teams like BAL or TAM don’t need to spend money on. That’s $50m committed addressed the biggest team deficiency from last season. Teams usually address what most got them bounced. Maybe the Jays execs are bucking their peers methods due to reading about randomness here

 

Well Baltimore had a string of top 5 draft picks and hit on them - the Jays generally don't hit and they choose in the bottom tier of the first round - so Baltimore has a lot better talent coming into their system - Tampa trades everyone to replenish their system. And maybe their draft and development team is simply a lot better than ours.

 

So we are struck trying to fix everything with cash.

 

Our biggest need is offense but no one in free agency really will fix that problem (except Ohtani). You don't want albatross contracts like Bellinger and we have one of the very worst farm systems in all of baseball - ranked bottom 5 - so basically to have any offensive upgrade we probably have to include Ricky Tidemann and Barger and Martinez and that still would not get you any "star bat."

 

TBH = I think the Jays are a bit of a mess - you have players who hugely underperformed last season and Shatkins is hoping they all rebound. If Vlad really is the 2 WAR player he was last year going forward - then he's basically a bust. He's been getting worse 3 years in a row - his great season was when he was largely hitting in AAA ballparks and the league hadn't figured him out.

 

Bichette isn't a particularly good shortstop defensively - maybe he is a Derek Jeter type - I can live with that but do we really want to pay him the $360m-$400m it's going to take to keep him?

 

They have no real hitters coming from the minors - they have maybe 2 pitchers - and they're already spending over the luxury tax to field an 80-87-win team.

 

I am not sure how they fix it - if the best player you can get is someone who strengthens a strength - I guess you have to do that - maybe the brass is thinking that they can't address the offense so let's make the pitching even better - pitching wins - at least enough to maybe get into the wild card.

 

It's not a bad idea - first step is to make the playoffs and then anything can happen - no one was exactly predicting an Arizona/Texas World Series when the year started.

 

As we sit now - the Jays do look like the frontrunner to finish third in the division ahead of Boston and Tampa - might be enough to make the playoffs. Then pray.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I think the Jays believe they have top 5 starting pitching and a top 5 bullpen, to go along with very high end defense. They actually have a legit shot at giving up the fewest runs in baseball next season I would think.

 

To go with that they have likely a middle of the pack offense at worst, and with 2-3 or bounce back seasons from regulars maybe a top 10 offense or so?

[Laika]

Well Baltimore had a string of top 5 draft picks and hit on them - the Jays generally don't hit and they choose in the bottom tier of the first round - so Baltimore has a lot better talent coming into their system - Tampa trades everyone to replenish their system. And maybe their draft and development team is simply a lot better than ours.

 

So we are struck trying to fix everything with cash.

 

Our biggest need is offense but no one in free agency really will fix that problem (except Ohtani). You don't want albatross contracts like Bellinger and we have one of the very worst farm systems in all of baseball - ranked bottom 5 - so basically to have any offensive upgrade we probably have to include Ricky Tidemann and Barger and Martinez and that still would not get you any "star bat."

 

TBH = I think the Jays are a bit of a mess - you have players who hugely underperformed last season and Shatkins is hoping they all rebound. If Vlad really is the 2 WAR player he was last year going forward - then he's basically a bust. He's been getting worse 3 years in a row - his great season was when he was largely hitting in AAA ballparks and the league hadn't figured him out.

 

Bichette isn't a particularly good shortstop defensively - maybe he is a Derek Jeter type - I can live with that but do we really want to pay him the $360m-$400m it's going to take to keep him?

 

They have no real hitters coming from the minors - they have maybe 2 pitchers - and they're already spending over the luxury tax to field an 80-87-win team.

 

I am not sure how they fix it - if the best player you can get is someone who strengthens a strength - I guess you have to do that - maybe the brass is thinking that they can't address the offense so let's make the pitching even better - pitching wins - at least enough to maybe get into the wild card.

 

It's not a bad idea - first step is to make the playoffs and then anything can happen - no one was exactly predicting an Arizona/Texas World Series when the year started.

 

As we sit now - the Jays do look like the frontrunner to finish third in the division ahead of Boston and Tampa - might be enough to make the playoffs. Then pray.

 

Some of this is just so pessimistic I kind of worry about your mental health. Are you depressed?

 

The Jays project for 90 wins, fifth by Steamer in baseball, 2nd in the division.

 

For them to win 80 games multiple members of the team might have to literally die

 

Their projected offense is actually good, believe it or not. Not elite but comfortably above average.

 

You essentially have the worst possible opinion of the organization in every conceivable way. Nothing is as bad as you think. Cheer up!!!

[Laika]

The Jays are something like:

 

Top 5 SP

Top 10 RP

Top 10 offense

Top 5 defense

Top 5 in resources

Middle of the pack current farm system. Say 15th to 20th.

[Jays24]

The Jays are something like:

 

Top 5 SP

Top 10 RP

Top 10 offense

Top 5 defense

Top 5 in resources

Middle of the pack current farm system. Say 15th to 20th.

 

That top 10 offense and middle of the pack farm system statements are aggressive. Agree with the rest though.

[MikeM3]

No one likes his fastball. 10.5" IVB is pretty s***. It must be weird or deceptive or something like Steele but Steele gets more ride. He should probably throw a sinker. Thats what we'll probably get him to do. Hopefully we see him as a starter and he's not s***

[Key22]

Some of this is just so pessimistic I kind of worry about your mental health. Are you depressed?

 

The Jays project for 90 wins, fifth by Steamer in baseball, 2nd in the division.

 

For them to win 80 games multiple members of the team might have to literally die

 

Their projected offense is actually good, believe it or not. Not elite but comfortably above average.

 

You essentially have the worst possible opinion of the organization in every conceivable way. Nothing is as bad as you think. Cheer up!!!

 

 

Well the Jays won 89 games last year so I am not sure why anyone would make the leap that next year will be better?

 

I mean Belt was arguably the second best hitter on the team - he's gone and has not been replaced. Two-hit Whit is gone and he was one of the more reliable players for most of the year. He's gone and has not been replaced by a superior player. Chapman is an elite defender and a reasonable hitter and he has not been replaced.

 

I am not sure how you take out three regulars - replace them with nobody and get better results?

 

Perhaps they feel other AL East teams have gotten worse which will give the Jays a better shot to win. The Jays have also had no real injuries to any of the starters or critical relievers.

 

I call it like I see it - I see a team if healthy is a top 5 rotation (top 2-3 if Manoah pitches like a CY Young candidate). We have an excellent overall bullpen. Probably top 5-10 there - it's deep - we have a couple of guys who can close. We have arguably the best outfield defence in the game. Two very solid catchers on both sides of the ball. And we have money. The Jays are said to be front runners for Soler - that sort of bat solves a lot of problems - be nice if he hit left but maybe you bring back Belt for a platoon.

 

Maybe Schneider is the real deal - and is one of these out of nowhere all-star calibre players for the next decade+.

[wamco]

Well the Jays won 89 games last year so I am not sure why anyone would make the leap that next year will be better?

 

I mean Belt was arguably the second best hitter on the team - he's gone and has not been replaced. Two-hit Whit is gone and he was one of the more reliable players for most of the year. He's gone and has not been replaced by a superior player. Chapman is an elite defender and a reasonable hitter and he has not been replaced.

 

I am not sure how you take out three regulars - replace them with nobody and get better results?

 

Perhaps they feel other AL East teams have gotten worse which will give the Jays a better shot to win. The Jays have also had no real injuries to any of the starters or critical relievers.

 

I call it like I see it - I see a team if healthy is a top 5 rotation (top 2-3 if Manoah pitches like a CY Young candidate). We have an excellent overall bullpen. Probably top 5-10 there - it's deep - we have a couple of guys who can close. We have arguably the best outfield defence in the game. Two very solid catchers on both sides of the ball. And we have money. The Jays are said to be front runners for Soler - that sort of bat solves a lot of problems - be nice if he hit left but maybe you bring back Belt for a platoon.

 

Maybe Schneider is the real deal - and is one of these out of nowhere all-star calibre players for the next decade+.

 

 

Can only be falling in love with the projections because common sense says they will be worse as you illustratrated

[Laika]

Can only be falling in love with the projections because common sense says they will be worse as you illustratrated

 

Not really

 

There are "common sense" reasons for the projections

 

Vlad, Bo, Kirk, Jansen, Schneider, Varsho, Biggio, Espinal, IKF are mostly presumptive starters and in their 20s. Most of them SHOULD bounce back or be better based on extremely basic principles like their age, how much contact they make, and how hard they hit the baseball.

 

You can go through the team and point out a couple of geezers here and there, or the age of the pitching staff, but I really don't care when 7/9 presumptive starters are still in their 20s. Common sense says the offense can really only get better vs 2023.

 

 

And if you want to think very linear, in terms of players lost and added while ignoring projections, it doesn't even look bad considering it's Jan 18:

 

Nobody of consequence was lost on the pitching side as Hicks was a hired gun anyway and Ryu was a non-contributor.

 

CHAPMAN out - replaced his defense at least with IKF and guess what Davis Schneider has a better projected wRC+ than Matt Chapman (not shocking)

KK out - replaced by a genetic replica of KK, you would swear it is the same dude

BELT out - okay but it's January 18th and the FA list is still crowded with DH options

MERRIFIELD out - who really cares? we all watched him the last couple years.

IN --> this Cuban arm and whatever he represents, could be a massive upgrade on the SP5 spot for all we know

 

 

The thrust of this is that I don't think you can even find a reasonable argument that the team will be worse than 2023 and there are plenty of reason to think it can and should be just as good or a better.

[The Cats Ass]

Well the Jays won 89 games last year so I am not sure why anyone would make the leap that next year will be better?

 

I mean Belt was arguably the second best hitter on the team - he's gone and has not been replaced. Two-hit Whit is gone and he was one of the more reliable players for most of the year. He's gone and has not been replaced by a superior player. Chapman is an elite defender and a reasonable hitter and he has not been replaced.

 

I am not sure how you take out three regulars - replace them with nobody and get better results?

 

Perhaps they feel other AL East teams have gotten worse which will give the Jays a better shot to win. The Jays have also had no real injuries to any of the starters or critical relievers.

 

I call it like I see it - I see a team if healthy is a top 5 rotation (top 2-3 if Manoah pitches like a CY Young candidate). We have an excellent overall bullpen. Probably top 5-10 there - it's deep - we have a couple of guys who can close. We have arguably the best outfield defence in the game. Two very solid catchers on both sides of the ball. And we have money. The Jays are said to be front runners for Soler - that sort of bat solves a lot of problems - be nice if he hit left but maybe you bring back Belt for a platoon.

 

Maybe Schneider is the real deal - and is one of these out of nowhere all-star calibre players for the next decade+.

 

Whit was a below average offensive player? He was our 3rd least productive hitter. IKF is legit a lateral move with the bat, except we upgrade on defense.

[wamco]

Not really

 

There are "common sense" reasons for the projections

 

Vlad, Bo, Kirk, Jansen, Schneider, Varsho, Biggio, Espinal, IKF are mostly presumptive starters and in their 20s. Most of them SHOULD bounce back or be better based on extremely basic principles like their age, how much contact they make, and how hard they hit the baseball.

 

You can go through the team and point out a couple of geezers here and there, or the age of the pitching staff, but I really don't care when 7/9 presumptive starters are still in their 20s. Common sense says the offense can really only get better vs 2023.

 

 

And if you want to think very linear, in terms of players lost and added while ignoring projections, it doesn't even look bad considering it's Jan 18:

 

Nobody of consequence was lost on the pitching side as Hicks was a hired gun anyway and Ryu was a non-contributor.

 

CHAPMAN out - replaced his defense at least with IKF and guess what Davis Schneider has a better projected wRC+ than Matt Chapman (not shocking)

KK out - replaced by a genetic replica of KK, you would swear it is the same dude

BELT out - okay but it's January 18th and the FA list is still crowded with DH options

MERRIFIELD out - who really cares? we all watched him the last couple years.

IN --> this Cuban arm and whatever he represents, could be a massive upgrade on the SP5 spot for all we know

 

 

The thrust of this is that I don't think you can even find a reasonable argument that the team will be worse than 2023 and there are plenty of reason to think it can and should be just as good or a better.

 

I’d take 11 starts with a 3.46 era/1.28 whip rookie season from Ya-Rod. That’s what ryu contributed last year. On paper, I easily take last years team over this team but off-season isn’t over yet by any means.

[max silver]

Whit was a below average offensive player? He was our 3rd least productive hitter. IKF is legit a lateral move with the bat, except we upgrade on defense.

 

Whit was a decent low cost pickup for the team but I agree it's simply time to let him sign elsewhere to continue his career. He's a below average player who needed nearly 600 plate appearances to accumulate his 1.5 FWAR last season. He had a very nice first 4 months of the season before the bottom really fell out through August and September as his 44 wRC+ was literally MLB's second worst offensive performer over the final two months of play. The club can easily replace him with the currently available roster options.

[The Cats Ass]

Whit was a decent low cost pickup for the team but I agree it's simply time to let him sign elsewhere to continue his career. He's a below average player who needed nearly 600 plate appearances to accumulate his 1.5 FWAR last season. He had a very nice first 4 months of the season before the bottom really fell out through August and September as his 44 wRC+ was literally MLB's second worst offensive performer over the final two months of play. The club can easily replace him with the currently available roster options.

 

Even his May and June wasn't anything to write home about. wRC+ of 86 and 99 for those 2 months. His July is really what saved his season, dude had a .997 OPS that month.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Whit was a decent low cost pickup for the team but I agree it's simply time to let him sign elsewhere to continue his career. He's a below average player who needed nearly 600 plate appearances to accumulate his 1.5 FWAR last season. He had a very nice first 4 months of the season before the bottom really fell out through August and September as his 44 wRC+ was literally MLB's second worst offensive performer over the final two months of play. The club can easily replace him with the currently available roster options.

 

Lucky for Whit varsho was here sucking up all the hate from the simpleton fans who loved to gobble Whits knob

[max silver]

Lucky for Whit varsho was here sucking up all the hate from the simpleton fans who loved to gobble Whits knob

 

The fanbase largely seemed to miss how Varsho turned his season around at exactly the same point Whit's season completely went off the rails.

[Laika]

I’d take 11 starts with a 3.46 era/1.28 whip rookie season from Ya-Rod. That’s what ryu contributed last year. On paper, I easily take last years team over this team but off-season isn’t over yet by any means.

 

That's fine but I think the roster last year also projected for like 95+ wins so it probably was, at the start of 2023, objectively better than the current team as of today

 

What is going on here with a lot of you (I know this is condescending) is you are conflating results with talent, they just aren't always congruent in sports.

 

The 2024 roster could project for a few less wins than the 2023 one did but still reasonably end up winning more games than the 2024 roster. And most of that is because the 2023 team was like, historically unlucky on offense. You can't look at a team 8th in wOBA but 14th in runs scored and assume they deserved to be 14th in runs scored, that is bonkers. 2022 and 2021 they were top 4 in both categories (wOBA and runs).

 

The comparison to the 2023 roster should use preseason projected wins, tbh. If they projected for 95 wins and you think they are 3 wins worse, then you would expect this team to win 92.

[max silver]

That's fine but I think the roster last year also projected for like 95+ wins so it probably was, at the start of 2023, objectively better than the current team as of today

 

What is going on here with a lot of you (I know this is condescending) is you are conflating results with talent, they just aren't always congruent in sports.

 

The 2024 roster could project for a few less wins than the 2023 one did but still reasonably end up winning more games than the 2024 roster. And most of that is because the 2023 team was like, historically unlucky on offense. You can't look at a team 8th in wOBA but 14th in runs scored and assume they deserved to be 14th in runs scored, that is bonkers. 2022 and 2021 they were top 4 in both categories (wOBA and runs).

 

The comparison to the 2023 roster should use preseason projected wins, tbh. If they projected for 95 wins and you think they are 3 wins worse, then you would expect this team to win 92.

 

I did some quick scouring of the internet and the the projections I came across were in the 88-93 range for the 2023 season.

[Laika]

I did some quick scouring of the internet and the the projections I came across were in the 88-93 range for the 2023 season.

 

ZiPS always has low numbers on the top teams. 88 for ZiPS and 93 for Steamer or FGDC would make sense to me. Based on what I remember.

[MikeM3]

The biggest variable between this year and last is pitching health when you consider the delta between our rotation and the replacements which are likely sub 0 war.

 

That's why we got Yariel and need him to be good

[Brownie19]

That's fine but I think the roster last year also projected for like 95+ wins so it probably was, at the start of 2023, objectively better than the current team as of today

 

What is going on here with a lot of you (I know this is condescending) is you are conflating results with talent, they just aren't always congruent in sports.

 

The 2024 roster could project for a few less wins than the 2023 one did but still reasonably end up winning more games than the 2024 roster. And most of that is because the 2023 team was like, historically unlucky on offense. You can't look at a team 8th in wOBA but 14th in runs scored and assume they deserved to be 14th in runs scored, that is bonkers. 2022 and 2021 they were top 4 in both categories (wOBA and runs).

 

The comparison to the 2023 roster should use preseason projected wins, tbh. If they projected for 95 wins and you think they are 3 wins worse, then you would expect this team to win 92.

 

Spot on.

[Terminator]

Kind of hard to remember it all but last year entering the season:

 

-The rotation was a big concern. We didn't know that Manoah had eaten his way to Buffalo yet but even so there were major concerns about Berrios and especially Kikuchi.

-There were also concerns about the starting pitching depth which was razor thin.

-The bullpen was also a concern. Fresh off the heels of the Game 2 collapse, the Atkins haters were slamming him almost daily because he "can't build a bullpen."

-The offense wasn't a concern. It was only when the offense was in that bizarre RISP drought that the haters switched from the bullpen (which had established itself as possible the best in baseball by that point) to throwing tantrums over the offense.

 

A year later:

-We are a pitching and defense team.

-Elite bullpen.

-Pitching depth is miles better (though still not great).

-Now there are concerns about the offense which IMO are overestimated.

 

We likely lose Matt Chapman so my guess is that on paper the team is slightly worse on paper entering this year. Last year's team had the chance to be pretty damn special if Vlad, Kirk, Varsho and Manoah all didn't s*** the bed to the degree they did because the rest of the offseason moves worked out well.

 

But my guess is that we get positive regression (which will outweigh any possible negative regression from some) and end up with a similar or better record than last year's team anyway.

[Brownie19]

Well that's also spot on.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Kind of hard to remember it all but last year entering the season:

 

-The rotation was a big concern. We didn't know that Manoah had eaten his way to Buffalo yet but even so there were major concerns about Berrios and especially Kikuchi.

-There were also concerns about the starting pitching depth which was razor thin.

-The bullpen was also a concern. Fresh off the heels of the Game 2 collapse, the Atkins haters were slamming him almost daily because he "can't build a bullpen."

-The offense wasn't a concern. It was only when the offense was in that bizarre RISP drought that the haters switched from the bullpen (which had established itself as possible the best in baseball by that point) to throwing tantrums over the offense.

 

A year later:

-We are a pitching and defense team.

-Elite bullpen.

-Pitching depth is miles better (though still not great).

-Now there are concerns about the offense which IMO are overestimated.

 

We likely lose Matt Chapman so my guess is that on paper the team is slightly worse on paper entering this year. Last year's team had the chance to be pretty damn special if Vlad, Kirk, Varsho and Manoah all didn't s*** the bed to the degree they did because the rest of the offseason moves worked out well.

 

But my guess is that we get positive regression (which will outweigh any possible negative regression from some) and end up with a similar or better record than last year's team anyway.

 

Yeah I had last years team winning 95 games or more UT did not expect the tubby trio Vlad, Kirk, Manoah to crap the bed like that. Springer too I guess to a degree and even Varsho.

 

Last year's team ended being a large group of 1 to 3 fWAR earners with no big stars pushing it over the top.

[max silver]

The biggest variable between this year and last is pitching health when you consider the delta between our rotation and the replacements which are likely sub 0 war.

 

That's why we got Yariel and need him to be good

 

I don't think the depth options are nearly as bad as you claim. The team has the likes of White, Francis, Tiedemann, Parson and Dallas as potential options not including Rodriguez. ZiPS projections for this collection of arms is as follows:

 

White 80 IP 4.34 FIP 0.7 WAR

Francis 87 IP 4.57 FIP 1.0 WAR

Tiedemann 79 IP 4.24 FIP 1.1 WAR

Dallas 104 IP 4.91 FIP 0.9 WAR

Parsons 76 IP 5.02 FIP 0.4 WAR

[Laika]

I don't think the depth options are nearly as bad as you claim. The team has the likes of White, Francis, Tiedemann, Parson and Dallas as potential options not including Rodriguez. ZiPS projections for this collection of arms is as follows:

 

White 80 IP 4.34 FIP 0.7 WAR

Francis 87 IP 4.57 FIP 1.0 WAR

Tiedemann 79 IP 4.24 FIP 1.1 WAR

Dallas 104 IP 4.91 FIP 0.9 WAR

Parsons 76 IP 5.02 FIP 0.4 WAR

 

higher than I would have expected on a few here

[Terminator]

The biggest variable between this year and last is pitching health when you consider the delta between our rotation and the replacements which are likely sub 0 war.

 

That's why we got Yariel and need him to be good

 

I don't think the depth options are nearly as bad as you claim. The team has the likes of White, Francis, Tiedemann, Parson and Dallas as potential options not including Rodriguez. ZiPS projections for this collection of arms is as follows:

 

White 80 IP 4.34 FIP 0.7 WAR

Francis 87 IP 4.57 FIP 1.0 WAR

Tiedemann 79 IP 4.24 FIP 1.1 WAR

Dallas 104 IP 4.91 FIP 0.9 WAR

Parsons 76 IP 5.02 FIP 0.4 WAR

 

I think you are both right to a degree. Last year the starting pitcher depth was so freaking bad. This year it's still not good, but it's miles better.

 

If we get wrecked in ST we will be in some trouble. But let's say Manoah sucks again AND anyone other than Gausman gets hurt in June or later (when Yariel and Tiedemann are both potentially ready) and I think we should be okay.

 

That's really about as good of depth as any team can hope for outside of the top few. A lot of teams, and even some playoff contenders, don't even have competent 4s and 5s. The bad teams sometimes don't even have 1 or 2 capable starters.

[Terminator]

No one likes his fastball. 10.5" IVB is pretty s***. It must be weird or deceptive or something like Steele but Steele gets more ride. He should probably throw a sinker. Thats what we'll probably get him to do. Hopefully we see him as a starter and he's not s***

 

Yeah I've been reading this as well and also see the comparisons to Steele.

 

If he can't get his fastball fixed, could he still be an elite reliever? Either a late inning guy or multi-inning guy? By just throwing his flat fastball harder (97+ mpg) to go with what looks like a very good slider?

 

I think the good thing is that in the WBC (where his stat cast data is coming from) he probably wasn't working with MLB caliber pitching labs. So hopefully we can make some tweaks and see some improvement with the fastball.

[max silver]

I think you are both right to a degree. Last year the starting pitcher depth was so freaking bad. This year it's still not good, but it's miles better.

 

If we get wrecked in ST we will be in some trouble. But let's say Manoah sucks again AND anyone other than Gausman gets hurt in June or later (when Yariel and Tiedemann are both potentially ready) and I think we should be okay.

 

That's really about as good of depth as any team can hope for outside of the top few. A lot of teams, and even some playoff contenders, don't even have competent 4s and 5s. The bad teams sometimes don't even have 1 or 2 capable starters.

 

I can't say I particularly agree with the depth starter options being much better than they were a season ago as most of the guys I listed this season were also primary options last season as well. The biggest issue with last year's group of depth starters was that they all basically suffered from injuries over the winter or during the spring that removed them as possible options to replace Manoah when it became apparent he needed to be sent to the minors. All of Hutchison, Francis, White and Tiedemann suffered from injury which removed them as possible options until mid season at the earliest. Zach Thompson was awful early on in the seaon, and Zulueta forgot how to throw strikes and was moved to the bullpen full time. By the time the injured guys worked their way back fully Ryu was nearly ready for his return and the other options were no longer required to the same degree.

[Laika]

Yeah I've been reading this as well and also see the comparisons to Steele.

 

If he can't get his fastball fixed, could he still be an elite reliever? Either a late inning guy or multi-inning guy? By just throwing his flat fastball harder (97+ mpg) to go with what looks like a very good slider?

 

I think the good thing is that in the WBC (where his stat cast data is coming from) he probably wasn't working with MLB caliber pitching labs. So hopefully we can make some tweaks and see some improvement with the fastball.

 

Guys like Adam Ottavino have been effective relievers with... below average fastball by stuff+ but really good benders. It's a relatively common archetype. From watching this Cuban pitch I am pretty confident he can be an effective RP unless he is a complete idiot like Esmil Rogers or something. I don't think Erik Swanson has a great stuff+ fastball. Anthony Bass doesn't, I think he threw a sinker more in his good years.

 

Just need to get his 4S up to a 90+ stuff+ grade or find an average-ish sinker.