Around Baseball 2024

[G-Snarls]

Yeah because AA was a big fkn weenie

 

It has worked out pretty well for him

[glory]

AA and Shapiro are like oil and water. No chance they would have worked well together, though in theory I agree it could have worked if Shapiro stayed away from baseball decisions. Shapiro just handling Rogers and AA having full autonomy would have been fun, though AA pre-Dodgers was not the same guy he is now. I just don’t think Shapiro is hands off, and certainly wouldn’t have been with AA.

[L54]

Agreed on the payroll part but being “gifted Vlad” is probably a bit misleading. Vlad has been on the team for six seasons. Two of them were elite (2021, 2024). Two of them were replacement level quality (2019-20). One was very good but not elite (2022). One was a 1 WAR season (2023). If Shatkins was gifted Juan Soto then that would have been a different story, but in the 2 years the Jays made the non-Covid playoffs, Vlad’s combined WAR in those two seasons was below 5.0. He simply hasn’t been a great player enough times. They won because of moves around him most of the years he has been under team control. The 2023 team in particular almost won 90 games with Vlad as a 1.3 WAR player.

 

Atkins deserves every criticism he gets but I think those 2020-23 teams were largely on the backs of players Atkins acquired, not the ones he inherited. That comes down to your other point, which was money/payroll. Without that, this team would have wasted way more of the Vlad/Bo years.

 

Vlad was the reason people wanted to play in Toronto. Without him it’s unlikely that the Jays are playing at the top of the FA market

 

So while yes Atkins did sign these players it wasn’t because of his negotiation skills or players wanting to play for his great young core

 

Which is the point I was trying to make earlier. While yes Atkins was the GM during these incredible four years, I don’t believe he did anything any other GM couldn’t have in Toronto

 

Reasons to play in Toronto circa 2020

 

1) Vlad and Bo - AA regime

2) Rogers willingness to spend - Rogers

3) Brand new state player dev complex - Shapiro

[Governator]

Vlad was the reason people wanted to play in Toronto. Without him it’s unlikely that the Jays are playing at the top of the FA market

 

So while yes Atkins did sign these players it wasn’t because of his negotiation skills or players wanting to play for his great young core

 

Which is the point I was trying to make earlier. While yes Atkins was the GM during these incredible four years, I don’t believe he did anything any other GM couldn’t have in Toronto

 

Reasons to play in Toronto circa 2020

 

1) Vlad and Bo - AA regime

2) Rogers willingness to spend - Rogers

3) Brand new state player dev complex - Shapiro

 

 

I feel that's literally giving a GM no credit, where credit is due. He doesn't just print contracts for people to sign who want to play here.

 

I think there's a lot of reasons players choose not to play in Toronto when given the choice between otherwise equal contracts. Potentially moving your family to another country for years with a single decision is not easy and it's unlikely the player himself who makes that final decision. Also dealing with the pain of customs throughout the entire year; Adam Lind was vocal about that in the past.

 

Rogers willingness to spend and a GM's negotiating skill have to be the main factors. If you're deciding between Toronto or Dodgers/Yankees, you're probably leaning toward a baseball city built on legacy. Trout didn't attract every player to go to the Angels..

[Spanky__99]

This dude is so full of s***, nice lip service... only large market teams have had meetings, and the Jays weren't one of them, hah! 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/wolfe-market-size-isnt-a-factor-in-sasakis-decision.html

[Omar]

Testing how to add a post from X. Easy. 

[wilko]

9 minutes ago, Omar said:

Testing how to add a post from X. Easy. 

What option do you use?

[L54]

15 hours ago, Governator said:

 

 

I feel that's literally giving a GM no credit, where credit is due. He doesn't just print contracts for people to sign who want to play here.

 

I think there's a lot of reasons players choose not to play in Toronto when given the choice between otherwise equal contracts. Potentially moving your family to another country for years with a single decision is not easy and it's unlikely the player himself who makes that final decision. Also dealing with the pain of customs throughout the entire year; Adam Lind was vocal about that in the past.

 

Rogers willingness to spend and a GM's negotiating skill have to be the main factors. If you're deciding between Toronto or Dodgers/Yankees, you're probably leaning toward a baseball city built on legacy. Trout didn't attract every player to go to the Angels..

That’s fine

I am giving Atkins very little credit yes. I don’t think he has any sort of autonomy and the whole org is a giant collaboration 

I don’t think Atkins is the reason the team had some mild success 

[Omar]

35 minutes ago, wilko said:

What option do you use?

Just copy and pasted the link.

[wilko]

11 minutes ago, Omar said:

Just copy and pasted the link.

[L54]

[Brownie19]

18 hours ago, L54 said:

 

Vlad was the reason people wanted to play in Toronto. Without him it’s unlikely that the Jays are playing at the top of the FA market

So while yes Atkins did sign these players it wasn’t because of his negotiation skills or players wanting to play for his great young core

Which is the point I was trying to make earlier. While yes Atkins was the GM during these incredible four years, I don’t believe he did anything any other GM couldn’t have in Toronto

This is a bit much for you man.  No credit for landing Chapman?  For signing Semien, for trading for and then re-signing Ray?  No credit for a great 4 year stretch?   

I also have a hard time believing guys like Ryu signed "because of Vlad"

I mean, sure - easy to suggest "any other GM could have done the same" - that's probably true.  I honestly wonder if there's a massive difference between most GM's. I suspect it's less than most would expect.  The very best and the very worst stand out, but the rest all blend in together.  Atkins isn't in either of those extremes IMO.

[Carlos Danger]

3 hours ago, Spanky99 said:

This dude is so full of s***, nice lip service... only large market teams have had meetings, and the Jays weren't one of them, hah! 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/wolfe-market-size-isnt-a-factor-in-sasakis-decision.html

The Dudes going to San Diego. That is what they are implying by “small market”. His uncle or relative is Darvish I believe. 

 

 

Pretty sure all other teams are just a dance and he wants to play for the Friars.

[jaysblue]

1 minute ago, Bownie19 said:

This is a bit much for you man.  No credit for landing Chapman?  For signing Semien, for trading for and then re-signing Ray?  No credit for a great 4 year stretch?   

I also have a hard time believing guys like Ryu signed "because of Vlad"

I mean, sure - easy to suggest "any other GM could have done the same" - that's probably true.  I honestly wonder if there's a massive difference between most GM's. I suspect it's less than most would expect.  The very best and the very worst stand out, but the rest all blend in together.  Atkins isn't in either of those extremes IMO.

Welcome to the new board Brownie! Hope we can put aside our differences in 2025!

I agree with you that Atkins doesn't stand out in the category of the "very best" or the "very worst." He's been a decent GM and has done a lot of good things, especially in his earlier years. His magic has worn off the last 2-3 years though and with a very poor farm system, high payroll, a simple-minded approach when it comes to building a roster and the uncertainty him and Shapiro have created with this organization moving forward, his time likely has expired. There have been a lot of missed opportunities as well during his tenure, but we'll have to agree to disagree on those. 

[Spanky__99]

16 minutes ago, Carlos Danger said:

The Dudes going to San Diego. That is what they are implying by “small market”. His uncle or relative is Darvish I believe. 

 

 

Pretty sure all other teams are just a dance and he wants to play for the Friars.

Yeah, it's all kind of dumb if his mind is made up, but listening to other clubs makes sense too. I thought Darvish was just his childhood hero? Either way it's the West Coast, I'm sure... SDP or LAD, I think the latter is where he goes.

[Laika]

Bownie? 

[Spanky__99]

16 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Welcome to the new board Brownie! Hope we can put aside our differences in 2025!

I agree with you that Atkins doesn't stand out in the category of the "very best" or the "very worst." He's been a decent GM and has done a lot of good things, especially in his earlier years. His magic has worn off the last 2-3 years though and with a very poor farm system, high payroll, a simple-minded approach when it comes to building a roster and the uncertainty him and Shapiro have created with this organization moving forward, his time likely has expired. There have been a lot of missed opportunities as well during his tenure, but we'll have to agree to disagree on those. 

The first line, I died... ☠️🤣😂

[Laika]

If we are being honest, Toronto probably didn't even want any of the free agents signed to date at the prices they fetched. Well, most of them. Sure there are a few 1 year deals Toronto would certainly have liked to do but most of the big names have been quite expensive. Remember, guys like Walker and Teoscar had the QO penalty attached so they cost more than the dollar figure. 

The idea that free agents are "not picking Toronto" is speculation. 

[Jays24]

2 minutes ago, Laika said:

If we are being honest, Toronto probably didn't even want any of the free agents signed to date at the prices they fetched. Well, most of them. Sure there are a few 1 year deals Toronto would certainly have liked to do but most of the big names have been quite expensive. Remember, guys like Walker and Teoscar had the QO penalty attached so they cost more than the dollar figure. 

The idea that free agents are "not picking Toronto" is speculation. 

Adamas, Teo and O'neill got reasonable deals from the top of my head. 

Also, when you can't build a farm system and have to rely on free agency to fill all your gaps then you better expect to lose a comp pick here and there.  It's obviously not ideal but the position they put themselves in.  

[Spanky__99]

16 minutes ago, Laika said:

Bownie? 

He's having the e-mail issue. No doubt.

 

[Laika]

9 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Adamas, Teo and O'neill got reasonable deals from the top of my head. 

Also, when you can't build a farm system and have to rely on free agency to fill all your gaps then you better expect to lose a comp pick here and there.  It's obviously not ideal but the position they put themselves in.  

Adames got more than expected and it was a huge deal. Teoscar has the pick attached which is worth a lot of money - his deal is more or less as projected. O'Neill got his projected deal, which I would have done, but there are valid reasons to not really like him. 

[Jays24]

14 minutes ago, Spanky99 said:

He's having the e-mail issue. No doubt.

 

He's here... he's been laughing at all the crying lol. 

[Jays24]

23 minutes ago, Laika said:

Adames got more than expected and it was a huge deal. Teoscar has the pick attached which is worth a lot of money - his deal is more or less as projected. O'Neill got his projected deal, which I would have done, but there are valid reasons to not really like him. 

Think we can agree that the "projected" deals and below are typically good deals by free agency standards.  I get the comp pick thing but this franchise doesnt have any other alternative to fill those gaps so either pay the price or rebuild. 

Most think it's probably more reasonable to rebuild than try to contend at this stage but that will all come down to how much Rogers wants to keep funding this operation.  The results as of today show we're doing both horribly lol. 

[Spanky__99]

7 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

He's here... he's been laughing at all the crying lol. 

Thanks tips, it's not his original account.

[Laika]

2 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Think we can agree that the "projected" deals and below are typically good deals by free agency standards.  I get the comp pick thing but this franchise isn't in a choice where it has any other alternative to fill those gaps so either pay the price or rebuild. 

Most think it's probably more reasonable to rebuild than try to contend at this stage but that will all come down to how much Rogers wants to keep funding this operation. 

They still have lots of choices. Profar is still out there and projects for a hair less WAR than Teoscar. 

Guys like Verdugo, Bader, Dylan Carlson are shittier options but if you pair them as cheap hole pluggers in the OF with a veteran DH signing of say JDM or Winker, you might get a bit more mileage for your money without having to commit so many years to an old player. Example, Verdugo and Winker for $11M each. 

Honestly this is what Toronto should do. Handing out a big deal to a 30+ year old FA at this juncture is kind of insane, unless that player is a total star. Better to just do their best on 1 year deals and see what happens. If it doesn't work, deadline firesale. 

[Spanky__99]

• The Blue Jays aren't selling.

[Jays24]

15 minutes ago, Laika said:

They still have lots of choices. Profar is still out there and projects for a hair less WAR than Teoscar. 

Guys like Verdugo, Bader, Dylan Carlson are shittier options but if you pair them as cheap hole pluggers in the OF with a veteran DH signing of say JDM or Winker, you might get a bit more mileage for your money without having to commit so many years to an old player. Example, Verdugo and Winker for $11M each. 

Honestly this is what Toronto should do. Handing out a big deal to a 30+ year old FA at this juncture is kind of insane, unless that player is a total star. Better to just do their best on 1 year deals and see what happens. If it doesn't work, deadline firesale. 

 

What they've needed to do for a while now is figure out the Bo/Vlad situations by either re-signing or trading them.  This would easily help you determine what path this team should be taking going forward. 

Those choices you listed don't justify keeping our 2 best players in their current state and would be a repeat of 2024 but with much better free agency crop that doesn't give you the excuse for f***ing it up.  

[jaysblue]

15 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

 

What they've needed to do for a while now is figure out the Bo/Vlad situations by either re-signing or trading them.  This would easily help you determine what path this team should be taking going forward. 

Those choices you listed don't justify keeping our 2 best players in their current state and would be a repeat of 2024 but with much better free agency crop that doesn't give you the excuse for f***ing it up.  

Yeah 100%. 

The list of quality FA's keeps getting smaller and smaller. Only a few left like Santander, Bregman, Pivetta, Profar and some elite relievers still remain available. The rest have question marks. Nothing wrong with that, but you can't fill every hole on the roster with players who are question marks and expect to contend in the AL East. Maybe one or two spots, but even still that requires having a strong core in place. Like for example, the Phillies were able to roll the dice on Kepler in the outfield since they already have a strong lineup. Roll the dice to see if he bounces back. If he does, great value signing. If not, it's not the end of the world. They don't have to sign Santander to a $100M deal. 

When I suggested Kepler earlier as an option this offseason if the Jays needed to save some money, others told me that was awful and even said players like Kepler or Pederson are moves you make in January lol. Even those options are dwindling since the Jays have been just sitting idle. 

Laika's solution is pretty much fill every position with a veteran stopgap on a 1-year deal and hope you get lucky. While I agree with that to an extent given the Jays situation, then you need to explore options of trading Vladdy and Bo. Keeping them around is a waste since you're just keeping the status quo. 

If you keep Vlad and Bo for a run in 2025, you have to go all-in signing top players rather than signing cheap scrubs. That window has likely passed, unless the Jays go big and sign Bregman/Santander and or Pivetta, which is highly unlikely, 

[L54]

The path forward is sign 

12 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Yeah 100%. 

The list of quality FA's keeps getting smaller and smaller. Only a few left like Santander, Bregman, Pivetta, Profar and some elite relievers still remain available. The rest have question marks. Nothing wrong with that, but you can't fill every hole on the roster with players who are question marks and expect to contend in the AL East. Maybe one or two spots, but even still that requires having a strong core in place. Like for example, the Phillies were able to roll the dice on Kepler in the outfield since they already have a strong lineup. Roll the dice to see if he bounces back. If he does, great value signing. If not, it's not the end of the world. They don't have to sign Santander to a $100M deal. 

When I suggested Kepler earlier as an option this offseason if the Jays needed to save some money, others told me that was awful and even said players like Kepler or Pederson are moves you make in January lol. Even those options are dwindling since the Jays have been just sitting idle. 

Laika's solution is pretty much fill every position with a veteran stopgap on a 1-year deal and hope you get lucky. While I agree with that to an extent given the Jays situation, then you need to explore options of trading Vladdy and Bo. Keeping them around is a waste since you're just keeping the status quo. 

If you keep Vlad and Bo for a run in 2025, you have to go all-in signing top players rather than signing cheap scrubs. That window has likely passed, unless the Jays go big and sign Bregman/Santander and or Pivetta, which is highly unlikely, 

No you don’t have to go all in. In fact I think that’s the last thing that should happen 

Saddling yourself with 50M in yearly commitments to Bregman/Santander and Pivetta, forfeiting picks to limp into July around .500 would not be smart 

I think it’s clear at this point they are fine with a) taking the comp pick for Bo/Vlad or b) trading them at the deadline if theyre too far from contention 

Nothing they’ve done this offseason suggests otherwise 

The only major player who makes sense at this point is Flaherty 

[Terminator]

27 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

When I suggested Kepler earlier as an option this offseason if the Jays needed to save some money, others told me that was awful and even said players like Kepler or Pederson are moves you make in January lol. Even those options are dwindling since the Jays have been just sitting idle. 

Why do you keep pumping the tires on Kepler? No one gave a crap when you mentioned him before and no one should give a crap that he signed with the Phillies now. He projects worse than Barger.