Around Baseball 2024

[Spanky__99]

D-Backs had the best record in July, now in a playoff spot.

 

Legit too, #1 in offense and #4 in pitching.

 

...

[Pendleton]

And Jake McCarthy with a hit in the bottom of the ninth, 2 outs, to win it 4-3

 

McCarthy has been on fire

[Brownie19]

They are 9-1 in their last 10

 

5 wins in a row

 

Lead the league in runs scored

 

Tied for 4th highest wRC+

 

I hadn’t realized how good their offense has been, and that’s with Carroll hitting like butt cheeks most of the year

 

Yeah - it's been pretty remarkable.

 

Carroll - balls

Saurez - balls

LGJ - balls

Moreno - just OK

Perdomo - just OK

Walker - typical season

 

Pederson - GREAT

Marte - GREAT

McCarthy - GREAT

 

I haven't looked, but I'd guess they're great with RISP.

 

Edit - yes, they are .283 AVG and 125 OPS+, which are both 2nd in the league. It's unlikely this is sustainable season over season, but for now, they are on a massive heater.

 

Of interest, the Jays are 10th overall in AVG with RISP this year.

[jaysblue]

McCarthy has been on fire

 

My inbox in the LOD over the last week has been filling up.

[Brownie19]

My inbox in the LOD over the last week has been filling up.

 

I'd sell high while you can. No bat speed, no exit velo, no barrels. It doesn't seem overly sustainable.

[Jimcanuck]

Chisholm might be from the same mold as Buxton

[Orgfiller]

Yeah - it's been pretty remarkable.

 

Carroll - balls

Saurez - balls

LGJ - balls

Moreno - just OK

Perdomo - just OK

Walker - typical season

 

Pederson - GREAT

Marte - GREAT

McCarthy - GREAT

 

I haven't looked, but I'd guess they're great with RISP.

 

Edit - yes, they are .283 AVG and 125 OPS+, which are both 2nd in the league. It's unlikely this is sustainable season over season, but for now, they are on a massive heater.

 

Of interest, the Jays are 10th overall in AVG with RISP this year.

 

A big reason for their turnaround is Carroll has been closer to the level we saw from him last season in the second half. 149 wRC+ with an ISO nearing .350. Eugenio Suarez also rocking a 141 wRC+ since the break. Gabby Moreno at 152 wRC+ (limited playing time). They basically coasted long enough to not bottom out and now one hot streak has put them right back into real contention.

[connorp]

No trolling, but who has the better 5 year outlook, including FA spending room and such. All things considered

Detroit or Toronto? I feel it’s objectively Detroit for sure.

[Laika]

No trolling, but who has the better 5 year outlook, including FA spending room and such. All things considered

Detroit or Toronto? I feel it’s objectively Detroit for sure.

 

Toronto because of resources

 

I don't think Detroit has had a top half payroll since Mike Illitch died

[connorp]

Toronto because of resources

 

I don't think Detroit has had a top half payroll since Mike Illitch died

 

Much stronger pipeline. If they stick to more of the short term veteran contracts, rather than the Baez attempts, they should be good where they don’t need to star chase. Even for the Jays, it’s a bad formula. You can want guys all you want, they have other teams that want them too

[John_Havok]

Much stronger pipeline. If they stick to more of the short term veteran contracts, rather than the Baez attempts, they should be good where they don’t need to star chase. Even for the Jays, it’s a bad formula. You can want guys all you want, they have other teams that want them too

 

Pipelines dont matter when you dont want to spend the money to fill in the cracks. Look at Pittsburgh and several other low spending teams. Great young talent, might make a playoff appearance or two before they all get traded because ownership wont pony up what's needed to either retain their stars, or to fill the rosters holes.

[Omar]

Pipelines dont matter when you dont want to spend the money to fill in the cracks. Look at Pittsburgh and several other low spending teams. Great young talent, might make a playoff appearance or two before they all get traded because ownership wont pony up what's needed to either retain their stars, or to fill the rosters holes.

 

But next five years was the question. Pipeline will matter.

[connorp]

Soto has balls of iron and backed it up. Imagine turning down $450m bc you thought you could do a lot better in a couple years. I’d be curious to know what kind of Lloyds of London issuance he’s been playing with.

[Laika]

Much stronger pipeline. If they stick to more of the short term veteran contracts, rather than the Baez attempts, they should be good where they don’t need to star chase. Even for the Jays, it’s a bad formula. You can want guys all you want, they have other teams that want them too

 

It's not a better pipeline. They've just been s*** forever. I think save for one year, every draft since 2016 they have been in the top half of the first round. And for every good first round pick in that time period they also have a complete bust like Mize, Manning, Tork. Their present farm system isn't obviously better than Toronto's, post deadline.

[Stangstag]

Much stronger pipeline. If they stick to more of the short term veteran contracts, rather than the Baez attempts, they should be good where they don’t need to star chase. Even for the Jays, it’s a bad formula. You can want guys all you want, they have other teams that want them too

 

This is just another Riley Greene post thinly Veiled as an “is Detroit really good?” Post

[jaysblue]

No trolling, but who has the better 5 year outlook, including FA spending room and such. All things considered

Detroit or Toronto? I feel it’s objectively Detroit for sure.

 

Based on the current young core, the main guys in Detroit are under club control until 2029. Toronto doesn't even a young core that matches Detroit over the next couple of seasons.

 

Position players who are under control: Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Colt Keith, Parker Meadows. Better and younger than the Jays position player core. If the Tigers do a solid job adding around them via trades/free agency or if some of their prospects like Max Clark, Kevin McGonigle, Bryce Rainer or Jace Jung make an impact at the big level, they definitely have a positive outlook in the next 5 years.

 

As for pitching, Tigers have a younger rotation led by Skubal (though he's a FA in 2027), Reese Olson (FA in 2030), and Casey Maze (FA in 2027). Top prospect Jackson Jobe also knocking on the door as well. As for depth arms or back-end of the rotation guys, they have Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, and Keider Montero. One of them might stick as a No 4/5 starter. Short term over the next two seasons, their rotation looks solid if healthy. Just need to add a veteran FA on a short term deal, kind of like what they did with Flaherty.

 

The big question is can Detroit re-sign Skubal? I believe there were even trade deadline rumours involving him, so maybe he is dangled sometime before 2027. If they can't re-sign him past 2027, they have just a two-year window with him around, so gotta hope some of their positional players can take the next level.

 

As for Toronto, they have more FA spending room and would be able to lock up their younger stars or top FA's. We'll see what happens with Vladdy, but if Vladdy was in Detroit he likely is traded or becomes a FA. Look at Skubal in Detroit and he likely gets traded before 2027 or walks via free agency. The issue is Toronto currently doesn't have a young solid core or rotation in comparison to Detroit right now. So by time it takes to draft & develop, the Blue Jays are a couple of years behind the Tigers on that front. If the Jays had the Tigers young core, they definitely would have the financial ability to lock up some of the core guys and build around them. Whereas Detroit really needs to take advantage within their 5-year window, or the next two-years with Skubal under control before he becomes a FA.

[connorp]

Based on the current young core, the main guys in Detroit are under club control until 2029. Toronto doesn't even a young core that matches Detroit over the next couple of seasons.

 

Position players who are under control: Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Colt Keith, Parker Meadows. Better and younger than the Jays position player core. If the Tigers do a solid job adding around them via trades/free agency or if some of their prospects like Max Clark, Kevin McGonigle, Bryce Rainer or Jace Jung make an impact at the big level, they definitely have a positive outlook in the next 5 years.

 

As for pitching, Tigers have a younger rotation led by Skubal (though he's a FA in 2027), Reese Olson (FA in 2030), and Casey Maze (FA in 2027). Top prospect Jackson Jobe also knocking on the door as well. As for depth arms or back-end of the rotation guys, they have Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, and Keider Montero. One of them might stick as a No 4/5 starter. Short term over the next two seasons, their rotation looks solid if healthy. Just need to add a veteran FA on a short term deal, kind of like what they did with Flaherty.

 

The big question is can Detroit re-sign Skubal? I believe there were even trade deadline rumours involving him, so maybe he is dangled sometime before 2027. If they can't re-sign him past 2027, they have just a two-year window with him around, so gotta hope some of their positional players can take the next level.

 

As for Toronto, they have more FA spending room and would be able to lock up their younger stars or top FA's. We'll see what happens with Vladdy, but if Vladdy was in Detroit he likely is traded or becomes a FA. Look at Skubal in Detroit and he likely gets traded before 2027 or walks via free agency. The issue is Toronto currently doesn't have a young solid core or rotation in comparison to Detroit right now. So by time it takes to draft & develop, the Blue Jays are a couple of years behind the Tigers on that front. If the Jays had the Tigers young core, they definitely would have the financial ability to lock up some of the core guys and build around them. Whereas Detroit really needs to take advantage within their 5-year window, or the next two-years with Skubal under control before he becomes a FA.

 

Agreed. I don’t think DET is anything near a TB or Oak though. DET is a blue collar sports city. They’ll never be a top payroll, but I think they’ll spend reasonably as it makes sense. If they take a step in the right direction next year, with their prospects like Jobe and others taking the next step, I don’t think they lose Skubal. As of this point in time though, I think they have much more room for optimism on their outlook than the Jays though

[Spanky__99]

Tigers has the big edge in the pipeline and the Jays have a huge edge in resources, all comes down to Chris Illitch, he said he believes in process before he spends when the time is right, his words. So we'll see this coming offseason. Edited August 15, 2024 by Spanky99

[jaysblue]

Agreed. I don’t think DET is anything near a TB or Oak though. DET is a blue collar sports city. They’ll never be a top payroll, but I think they’ll spend reasonably as it makes sense. If they take a step in the right direction next year, with their prospects like Jobe and others taking the next step, I don’t think they lose Skubal. As of this point in time though, I think they have much more room for optimism on their outlook than the Jays though

 

Yeah I agree as well.

 

The Jays core and rotation that is locked up for the next couple of seasons is mostly on the wrong side of 30 and expensive. It's going to cost a lot to re-sign Vlad if they do, and Bo likely walks as a FA after 2025. Jays have to even spend more money this offseason on FA's in order to improve the club to make themselves a wildcard contender. As well, the Jays rotation is an expensive and aging one. The young players like Horwitz or young arms like YRod/Francis on the Jays are decent, but they're not on the same level as the core guys or prospects in Detroit.

 

Detroit will never be as bad as Oakland or Tampa when it comes to spending. They've spent in the past on big players and arms via free agency or trades.

 

If Toronto re-signs Vladdy and also could sign Soto, that definitely changes their outlook moving forward but we're talking about spending close to $700M on just two players haha.

[Spanky__99]

Yeah I agree as well.

 

The Jays core and rotation that is locked up for the next couple of seasons is mostly on the wrong side of 30 and expensive. It's going to cost a lot to re-sign Vlad if they do, and Bo likely walks as a FA after 2025. Jays have to even spend more money this offseason on FA's in order to improve the club to make themselves a wildcard contender. As well, the Jays rotation is an expensive and aging one. The young players like Horwitz or young arms like YRod/Francis on the Jays are decent, but they're not on the same level as the core guys or prospects in Detroit.

 

Detroit will never be as bad as Oakland or Tampa when it comes to spending. They've spent in the past on big players and arms via free agency or trades.

 

If Toronto re-signs Vladdy and also could sign Soto, that definitely changes their outlook moving forward but we're talking about spending close to $700M on just two players haha.

 

It was about the next 5 years though, Jays have the clear edge until the Tigers spend.

[Laika]

You guys realize that Colt Keith and Parker Meadows are no better than the Jays younger slop, right? Schneider, Clement, Horwitz, Wagner, etc.

 

Skubal isn't controllable for 5 years.

 

Greene is really good. Carpenter seems like an above average player.

 

Jobe is a pitching prospect....

 

this is funny

[Spanky__99]

You guys realize that Colt Keith and Parker Meadows are no better than the Jays younger slop, right? Schneider, Clement, Horwitz, Wagner, etc.

 

Skubal isn't controllable for 5 years.

 

Greene is really good. Carpenter seems like an above average player.

 

Jobe is a pitching prospect....

 

this is funny

 

MLB Pipeline has their Org ranked at 6, Toronto at 24.

[mphenhef]

 

Detroit will never be as bad as Oakland or Tampa when it comes to spending. They've spent in the past on big players and arms via free agency or trades.

 

 

I don't know if it is fair to look at that last period of heavy spending as any indication of their future plans. That was when Mike Ilitch was still the owner. The payroll was slashed as soon as he passed and has not been higher than 17th in the league since then. Part of that heavy spending was Ilitch wanting a world series before he died too.

[Laika]

MLB Pipeline has their Org ranked at 6, Toronto at 24.

 

John Mayo? lol

[Spanky__99]

John Mayo? lol

 

Yeah, Mayo, Callis and some other dude, can't remember.

[Ray]

Walker Buehler may be cooked. He’s been getting absolutely shelled.

[G-Snarls]

Orioles option Colby Mayo

[jaysblue]

You guys realize that Colt Keith and Parker Meadows are no better than the Jays younger slop, right? Schneider, Clement, Horwitz, Wagner, etc.

 

Skubal isn't controllable for 5 years.

 

Greene is really good. Carpenter seems like an above average player.

 

Jobe is a pitching prospect....

 

this is funny

 

You literally never read my post but alright.

 

For upside, Parker Meadows and Colt Keith have more than the Jays younger group. Meadows can be identical to Greene. But yeah until they prove themselves, they might end up being trash or just average.

 

I mentioned Skubal is only under control until 2027 and a lot depends if the Tigers can re-sign him or if they trade him. Can't you read?

 

Riley Greene is really good and under control until 2029. Which player on his level on the Jays is under control until 2029 right now? Unless the Jays spend $250-300M to re-sign Vlad.

 

Carpenter would be one of the best power hitters on the Jays right after Vladdy lol.

 

Jobe at least is a top 10 prospect who is close to MLB ready.

 

This is funny that you can't comprehend anything.

[Spanky__99]

Who was it that said the Dodgers farm was bad? Hah!

[Jimcanuck]

You guys realize that Colt Keith and Parker Meadows are no better than the Jays younger slop, right? Schneider, Clement, Horwitz, Wagner, etc.

 

Skubal isn't controllable for 5 years.

 

Greene is really good. Carpenter seems like an above average player.

 

Jobe is a pitching prospect....

 

this is funny

 

Let's revisit this post next season