Around Baseball 2024

[Laika]

They can play it both ways

 

Shop him to see if there is a monster deal, if not just hold and sign whoever jaysblue wants to target this off-season cuz he's a genius

[Carlos Danger]

Who said anything about handing Vlad a $350 million contract? If he's willing to sign something commensurate with a reasonable 1B/DH contract then have at it, but I don't see anyone in baseball being willing to hand him a mega deal even once he reaches free agency.

 

How are you going to get him to forgo FA and not offer him a 7–10 yr deal at higher then he is making in Arb?? You realize how much he will make in Arb this year?

 

 

While Vlad might like Toronto and come from money, he is not going to take some deep discount and his agent and MLBPA wouldn’t let him.

[Laika]

How are you going to get him to forgo FA and not offer him a 7–10 yr deal at higher then be is making in Arb?? You realize how much he will make in Arb this year?

 

 

While Vlad might like Toronto and come from money, he is not going to take some deep discount and his agent and MLBPA wouldn’t let him.

 

Yeah he has no incentive to sign for some team friendly thing

 

He could go year to year in FA and suck and make $20M for the next five or six years

[max silver]

How are you going to get him to forgo FA and not offer him a 7–10 yr deal at higher then he is making in Arb?? You realize how much he will make in Arb this year?

 

 

While Vlad might like Toronto and come from money, he is not going to take some deep discount and his agent and MLBPA wouldn’t let him.

 

There's a dramatic difference in the overall totals for the amounts you suggested. On the lower end at $182 million I'd do that deal every day of the week. The upper end of your suggested range is nearly double that and Vlad simply isn't likely to receive anywhere close to that in free agency unless he returns to 2021 levels of production all the way leading up to free agency.

[philly30]

Remember all that mocking the Philadelphia Phillies used to get here? Does anyone else remember that? I mean some pretty harsh abuse on how horrible that org was run….

 

Spanky, do you have any time tonight to find me some receipts on that? Lmk.

 

It was run horribly.

[Carlos Danger]

There's a dramatic difference in the overall totals for the amounts you suggested. On the lower end at $182 million I'd do that deal every day of the week. The upper end of your suggested range is nearly double that and Vlad simply isn't likely to receive anywhere close to that in free agency unless he returns to 2021 levels of production all the way leading up to free agency.

 

Yea, longer contract at lower AAV or shorter at higher, I don’t think you have reviewed the comps for a 27 yr old FA with Vlad’s numbers regardless of SLG% this year.

 

You are starting out by having to beat his arb years and giving him long term security, correct?

 

What number do you think will do it?

 

Vlad is looking at $25 mil in Arb for 2025 at this rate.

 

Unless you go into it willing to spend big dollars, you better trade him now! The worst thing that can happen is Vlad walks and we get nothing. A la Trevor Story that the Rockies royally f***ed up.

[Sorrow]

I think the minimum Guerrero ends up signing is 10/250 if he has two seasons of 3+ fWAR in 2024 and 2025 even if he his more of a 20 home run bat. If he ends up having 140 wRC+ both seasons I think we see more like 300M+.

 

If the right deal comes along no one should be untradeable.

[John_Havok]

I think the minimum Guerrero ends up signing is 10/250 if he has two seasons of 3+ fWAR in 2024 and 2025 even if he his more of a 20 home run bat. If he ends up having 140 wRC+ both seasons I think we see more like 300M+.

 

If the right deal comes along no one should be untradeable.

 

Nobody is paying 10/250 for a 1b/DH who can't hit at least 40 bombs on the regular.

 

8/168 for Olsen sets the bar. Vlad isn't anything close to Olsen even being several years younger when he signs his deal. Same deal for Freeman though a larger discrepancy in age.

 

If Vlad was hitting like even 85% of 2021 Vlad and had been for the past 3 seasons. And continued to do right up until.his contract expired, sure 300 million might be on the table.

 

Zero teams will pay 300 million for a 3war 1b/DH

[Carlos Danger]

Nobody is paying 10/250 for a 1b/DH who can't hit at least 40 bombs on the regular.

 

8/168 for Olsen sets the bar. Vlad isn't anything close to Olsen even being several years younger when he signs his deal. Same deal for Freeman though a larger discrepancy in age.

 

If Vlad was hitting like even 85% of 2021 Vlad and had been for the past 3 seasons. And continued to do right up until.his contract expired, sure 300 million might be on the table.

 

Zero teams will pay 300 million for a 3war 1b/DH

 

Every year without fail, we are all wrong and blown away by how much an FA gets vs what we thought they would get.

 

10/250 only = AAV of 25 mil. That is the minimum he will get per year anyway. Then if any competition or incentive to make Vlad forgo FA, you have to give the additional years. If you want to go only 7 or 5 yrs, you better get that AAV way up.

[jaysblue]

They can play it both ways

 

Shop him to see if there is a monster deal, if not just hold and sign whoever jaysblue wants to target this off-season cuz he's a genius

 

Wasn't that difficult to add a corner OF bat or DH with pop this offseason. Atkins is supposed to be the genius which is why he gets paid the big bucks. But he can't even do something that simple.

 

At least the Jays have some options now since Vlad looks like he's finally woke up with his bat. They could get something of value in return now if they decided to shop him.

[John_Havok]

Every year without fail, we are all wrong and blown away by how much an FA gets vs what we thought they would get.

 

10/250 only = AAV of 25 mil. That is the minimum he will get per year anyway. Then if any competition or incentive to make Vlad forgo FA, you have to give the additional years. If you want to go only 7 or 5 yrs, you better get that AAV way up.

 

Most of what you say is true, except the 1b/DH position doesn't follow that rule.

 

It's not the AAV that's the problem with the contract but the 10 year part. There's just 0 reason to sign a guy like Vlad to a 10 year deal as a 3WAR 1b/DH.

[Carlos Danger]

Most of what you say is true, except the 1b/DH position doesn't follow that rule.

 

It's not the AAV that's the problem with the contract but the 10 year part. There's just 0 reason to sign a guy like Vlad to a 10 year deal as a 3WAR 1b/DH.

 

I think you are making my point why I don't think we should sign him to an extension

[connorp]

Nobody is paying 10/250 for a 1b/DH who can't hit at least 40 bombs on the regular.

 

8/168 for Olsen sets the bar. Vlad isn't anything close to Olsen even being several years younger when he signs his deal. Same deal for Freeman though a larger discrepancy in age.

 

If Vlad was hitting like even 85% of 2021 Vlad and had been for the past 3 seasons. And continued to do right up until.his contract expired, sure 300 million might be on the table.

 

Zero teams will pay 300 million for a 3war 1b/DH

 

Just because you say things doesn’t make them true. You may hate AVG but if you hit 39hr, but only hit .240 with an OPS+ of 120, it’s going to affect your market. Especially when you hit .195 during Covid year 1 year prior.

 

Oh and you weren’t #1 prospect in baseball and considered generational, with an MVP type year under your belt at 22yo. AND you’re 2 years older lol.

 

Matt Olson was not worth more than Vlad at the time of his deal. Some bs you tried to shovel without someone seeing

[John_Havok]

Just because you say things doesn’t make them true. You may hate AVG but if you hit 39hr, but only hit .240 with an OPS+ of 120, it’s going to affect your market. Especially when you hit .195 during Covid year 1 year prior.

 

Oh and you weren’t #1 prospect in baseball and considered generational, with an MVP type year under your belt at 22yo. AND you’re 2 years older lol.

 

Matt Olson was not worth more than Vlad at the time of his deal. Some bs you tried to shovel without someone seeing

 

Literally none of what you said makes any sense.

 

None of Vlads accolades from 2021 and prior make a damn bit of difference if he's a 3WAR 1B/DH in 2024 and 2025 going to FA heading into 2026

 

4 straight meh seasons weigh more than 1 MVP level season

[connorp]

Literally none of what you said makes any sense.

 

None of Vlads accolades from 2021 and prior make a damn bit of difference if he's a 3WAR 1B/DH in 2024 and 2025 going to FA heading into 2026

 

4 straight meh seasons weigh more than 1 MVP level season

 

People pay for offensive. They don’t give a s*** about 1b if you can hit like one. Your opinion wasn’t worth the Charmin it was meant for. Sorry, mate.

[jaysblue]

Teo is on fire!

[hanton]

Teo again....

[Spanky__99]

They can play it both ways

 

Shop him to see if there is a monster deal, if not just hold and sign whoever jaysblue wants to target this off-season cuz he's a genius

 

lol...

[Stangstag]

Every year without fail, we are all wrong and blown away by how much an FA gets vs what we thought they would get.

 

10/250 only = AAV of 25 mil. That is the minimum he will get per year anyway. Then if any competition or incentive to make Vlad forgo FA, you have to give the additional years. If you want to go only 7 or 5 yrs, you better get that AAV way up.

 

Alonso will be a pretty good comp for what Vlad should fetch as a free agent. Add on a couple years because Vlad is younger.

[connorp]

Alonso will be a pretty good comp for what Vlad should fetch as a free agent. Add on a couple years because Vlad is younger.

 

Nope. Mock average all you want, you don’t hit .217 and .240 two years in a row and get paid huge bucks. Needs to get back to .265 type range at least

 

NYY are going to play Vlad if Jays don’t. I promise you. That’s where he’s headed

 

They’ve seen enough to be intrigued on what he could be there.

[jaysblue]

Nope. Mock average all you want, you don’t hit .217 and .240 two years in a row and get paid huge bucks. Needs to get back to .265 type range at least

 

NYY are going to play Vlad if Jays don’t. I promise you. That’s where he’s headed

 

They’ve seen enough to be intrigued on what he could be there.

 

Yankees need a 1B. Rizzo has been awful this season.

[connorp]

Yankees need a 1B. Rizzo has been awful this season.

 

Him and DJL = $32m

[connorp]

Volpe

Soto

Vlad

Judge

 

Pencil it in if Jays can’t figure it out

[Stangstag]

Volpe

Soto

Vlad

Judge

 

Pencil it in if Jays can’t figure it out

 

Contrary to what you believe, the Yanks don’t have INFINITE money

[connorp]

Contrary to what you believe, the Yanks don’t have INFINITE money

 

$32m coming off Rizzo and DJL. Soto only likely +$15m per year next year.

[Eat My Shatkins]

The Yankees are basically the Jays but their two superstars are actually superstars and their bullpen hasn't been destroyed by injuries and underperformance.

 

Soto & Judge 10 fWAR / Rest of position players ~7 fWAR

Vlad & Bo 1.6 fWAR / Rest of position players ~7 fWAR

 

SP War NYY 5.3 (11th)

SP War Jays 5.1 (12th)

 

RP War NYY 1.5 (15th)

RP War Jays -1.5 (30th)

 

And their payroll is $62 million higher as well.

[max silver]

$32m coming off Rizzo and DJL. Soto only likely +$15m per year next year.

 

Then add Vlad and another 30+ million per year as well on top of that.

[wilko]

Nope. Mock average all you want, you don’t hit .217 and .240 two years in a row and get paid huge bucks. Needs to get back to .265 type range at least

 

NYY are going to play Vlad if Jays don’t. I promise you. That’s where he’s headed

 

They’ve seen enough to be intrigued on what he could be there.

 

Are you calling Vladdy a liar? He hates NY.

[MikeM3]

The Yankees are basically the Jays but their two superstars are actually superstars and their bullpen hasn't been destroyed by injuries and underperformance.

 

Soto & Judge 10 fWAR / Rest of position players ~7 fWAR

Vlad & Bo 1.6 fWAR / Rest of position players ~7 fWAR

 

SP War NYY 5.3 (11th)

SP War Jays 5.1 (12th)

 

RP War NYY 1.5 (15th)

RP War Jays -1.5 (30th)

 

And their payroll is $62 million higher as well.

 

Add Cole and Dominguez to that

[Laika]

The Yankees are basically the Jays but their two superstars are actually superstars and their bullpen hasn't been destroyed by injuries and underperformance.

 

Soto & Judge 10 fWAR / Rest of position players ~7 fWAR

Vlad & Bo 1.6 fWAR / Rest of position players ~7 fWAR

 

SP War NYY 5.3 (11th)

SP War Jays 5.1 (12th)

 

RP War NYY 1.5 (15th)

RP War Jays -1.5 (30th)

 

And their payroll is $62 million higher as well.

 

Yes but we would have expected Judge+Soto to be something like 6 combined WAR better than Vlad+Bo, pre-season. So the present performance (10 WAR vs 1.6) would be compared to an expected performance of like 6 WAR vs 3, or something like that, at this point in the year.

 

The Yankees are milking more value out of their SP than expected, across the board. They are way over their skis though. Their ERA minus FIP is wildly lucky at the moment.