Around Baseball 2024

[Abomination]

Yimi for Davis - who says no?

 

That seems like a good fit for both sides.

[Carlos Danger]

What are your expectations for GM's "reading the market" correctly? Should they do it correctly every year? 50% of the time? Knowing what each team/GM is willing to do each year can't be easy. Mis-reading the market and ending up empty handed has to be a lot worse than mis-reading the market and ending up with slightly inferior players.

 

Didn't the Dodgers mis-read the market by signing Teo instead of Belly?

 

The Dodgers didn’t want Bellinger. So no.

[Laika]

You’re probably right that they had a strong idea that Chapman was leaving when they sighed IKF. But my point was that, as late as February 2nd, there was a financial ability to give Chapman the deal he got. That didn’t happen, but not because there wasn’t 20M in the 2024 budget. They either preferred Turner straight up to Chapman all things considered, or Chapman was still holding out for a significantly bigger deal than what he got, or just preferred SF on a 1-year deal.

 

Yeah fair to assume that when Toronto pulled the trigger on Turner, Boras was still holding the line hard on Chapman

 

These Bellinger and Chapman deals probably happen in like one day after the player finally lets it be known that they will take this kind of deal

[John_Havok]

Overall ..Davis would maybe result in about half win improvement over IKF, just changing out a defender for a bat.

 

IF defense would be pretty suspect overall with Davis there instead of IKF, Bo...Vlad and whomever they figure plays second.

 

Pitchers better hope they dont throw may ground balls.

 

That's the argument for Davis.

[Terminator]

Overall ..Davis would maybe result in about half win improvement over IKF, just changing out a defender for a bat.

 

Yeah Davis would have been a better fit if we didn’t already have Turner.

[jaysblue]

I would definitely trade a middle reliever like Yimi for JD Davis if the Giants were willing to do that.

[wamco]

I’d prefer Garcia

[John_Havok]

Yeah Davis would have been a better fit if we didn’t already have Turner.

 

Yeah. And the salary diff is like 600k between IKF and Davis. It's a marginal overall upgrade that impacts the IF defense in a negative way.

 

If there was a way to acquire Davis and move on from Turner at the same time...I would support that but having IKF, Turner and Davis would make no sense.

[Abomination]

Yeah. And the salary diff is like 600k between IKF and Davis. It's a marginal overall upgrade that impacts the IF defense in a negative way.

 

If there was a way to acquire Davis and move on from Turner at the same time...I would support that but having IKF, Turner and Davis would make no sense.

 

Davis was a plus defender last year (his first full year at 3rd rather than being moved everywhere). He's not IKF with the glove, but he's probably slightly above average both offensively and defensively. If he puts up last year's defense and the ~120 wRC+ he had in previous years, he's probably a 3 war player. Doesn't hurt that it's his contract year either. IMO the best way we can utilize IKF is as a later game defensive replacement / pinch runner. He has a ton of value in that role.

[John_Havok]

Davis was a plus defender last year (his first full year at 3rd rather than being moved everywhere). He's not IKF with the glove, but he's probably slightly above average both offensively and defensively. If he puts up last year's defense and the ~120 wRC+ he had in previous years, he's probably a 3 war player. Doesn't hurt that it's his contract year either. IMO the best way we can utilize IKF is as a later game defensive replacement / pinch runner. He has a ton of value in that role.

 

I guess I'm not convinced that a guy having his first plus year defensively at 30 is much to hang your hat on.

 

I think it says something though when the team that has him at 3b for 7 million signs Chapman for 20 million at at his position instead when they're really close to the same projections offensively.

[Brownie19]

The Dodgers didn’t want Bellinger. So no.

 

How do you know that? Because they let him go last year? The Dodgers would 100% want Belly for $25M over Teo at $23M. They mis-read his market also.

[L54]

How do you know that? Because they let him go last year? The Dodgers would 100% want Belly for $25M over Teo at $23M. They mis-read his market also.

 

100% is a bold statement

 

I guess if they’re trying to field an all left handed lineup that would make sense

[L54]

Yimi for Davis - who says no?

 

I would say no. I agree with John that I don’t really think it’s that great of an upgrade and Jimmy is good

[hanton]

How do you know that? Because they let him go last year? The Dodgers would 100% want Belly for $25M over Teo at $23M. They mis-read his market also.

 

The Dodgers moved on from Beli a long time ago, Outman. and Teo was brought in to fill a specific need with the lefty heavy line-up

[Brownie19]

100% is a bold statement

 

I guess if they’re trying to field an all left handed lineup that would make sense

 

Belly had a 164 wRC+ v. LHP last year. He can also play defense. If the Jays mis-read the market by not signing Chapman, then I think it's fair to suggest the Dodgers also did by signing Teo over Belly.

 

If they didn't want all lefties, they could have just let Heyward leave and signed Duval, Renfroe - or another RH OFer. They signed Heyward very early in the FA season too - which was completely unnecessary for a guy who projects to be a 0.8 WAR player.

[John_Havok]

Belly had a 164 wRC+ v. LHP last year. He can also play defense. If the Jays mis-read the market by not signing Chapman, then I think it's fair to suggest the Dodgers also did by signing Teo over Belly.

 

If they didn't want all lefties, they could have just let Heyward leave and signed Duval, Renfroe - or another RH OFer. They signed Heyward very early in the FA season too - which was completely unnecessary for a guy who projects to be a 0.8 WAR player.

 

Yeah but they sure nailed that Japanese market pretty effectively. Blank cheques are great for that

[RobinThicc]

 

Damn, huge AAV

[Brownie19]

Yeah but they sure nailed that Japanese market pretty effectively. Blank cheques are great for that

 

They certainly did. But there's a decent chance they're going to pay Teo and Heyward $32M to give them like 2 WAR this year. I think there's as good of a chance that Heyward gives them -0.5 to 0.5 WAR as it is he provides 1+ WAR. Point being - even great organizations/GM's aren't going to be perfect with this stuff.

[Brownie19]

 

Damn, huge AAV

 

Wowsers! I wonder what Snell ends up with. I can't imagine it's anywhere near this AAV.

[Laika]

2025 Phillies

 

Turner $27.2M

Harper $27.5M

Nola $24.5M

Wheeler $42M

JTR $23.8M

Castellanos $20M

Schwarber $20M

Walker $18M

Alvarado $9M

 

= $212M

 

$212M just for SS, C, 1B, RF, DH, SP1, SP2, SP5, CL.

[Carlos Danger]

Belly had a 164 wRC+ v. LHP last year. He can also play defense. If the Jays mis-read the market by not signing Chapman, then I think it's fair to suggest the Dodgers also did by signing Teo over Belly.

 

If they didn't want all lefties, they could have just let Heyward leave and signed Duval, Renfroe - or another RH OFer. They signed Heyward very early in the FA season too - which was completely unnecessary for a guy who projects to be a 0.8 WAR player.

 

Belinger has a lot of scary numbers under the hood and a poor track record with only one good year.

 

The Dodgers did NOT want Belinger and if they did, they would have got him. The Jays did well by staying away from Belinger also.

[BTS]

3/126 extension for Zack Wheeler

[Spanky__99]

What take are you referring to? If it's about Kiermaier, then the only thing I've said is that after signing he said that he was surprised at the lack of interest in him throughout free agency, as he was expecting more teams to be in on him. I don't recall reading anything about how many teams were actually interested in him.

 

MLBTR article, not a big deal, plus I might be misremembering the poster.

[Spanky__99]

Chapman to SF for 3/54.

 

Ross Atkins is pretty f***ing stupid.

 

Oof... first time seeing this since Friday.

[Brownie19]

Belinger has a lot of scary numbers under the hood and a poor track record with only one good year.

 

The Dodgers did NOT want Belinger and if they did, they would have got him. The Jays did well by staying away from Belinger also.

 

And there's no risk with Teo. Got it.

[John_Havok]

Oof... first time seeing this since Friday.

 

It was confirmed he turned down 6/120 from the Jays at some point, and told them early on he wasn't coming back to TO.

[Stangstag]

And there's no risk with Teo. Got it.

 

Its a 1 year deal though. Versus being locked into 3 years of Bellinger if he’s s*** again

[Spanky__99]

I don't think Chapman wanted to come back. Period. He told the Jays as much and they acted accordingly.

 

The Jays offseason is entirely understandable if the above is true.

 

Well Boras sure thought he was worth more than a 100M +, he looks part as the biggest fool, Chappy really has to pick his play up if he ever wants to see that type of money offered again and in a Park like Oracle, welp. In saying that this offseason has been a little under-whelming for me. The tea leaves were sprinkled when they signed KK and IKF, is what it is. This team is still a contender. The core have to step or we were in this predicament regardless.

[Spanky__99]

It was confirmed he turned down 6/120 from the Jays at some point, and told them early on he wasn't coming back to TO.

 

I know big guy. I'd have been pissed if he accepted, lol.

[Spanky__99]

I don’t like the IKF signing but I actually think it’s more justifiable than the KK signing. At least IKF is a great defensive player at a position where the Jays have no one competent anywhere in the org (based on how they moved Orelvis and Barger elsewhere), and he could easily shift to a utility role with no ego issues if a better option becomes available. Not to mention the market for 3B was ass. KK is a different story. Would have been fine if the Jays didn’t have a CF but just a poor use of assets there.

 

I agree with pretty much all of this. Didn't like the 2nd year to IKF. Didn't like KK as it bounced Varsho back to LF. Ah well, Go Jays Go, lol.