Around Baseball 2024

[The Cats Ass]

Can a guy really ever be "back to full health", in the context of professional sports, when he was so hurt for two whole years?

 

Like, some damage just cannot be 100% undone. Also, some of the statcast stuff from 2023 like EV data doesn't show a guy who is 100% back. More like, 90% back or so.

 

IKF has a higher EV than Bellinger.

[max silver]

IKF has a higher EV than Bellinger.

 

And trailed him by 40 points in xwOBA. Methinks this isn't quite an apples to apples comparison here.

[John_Havok]

Yeah this could be the ultimate baseball dynasty family of all time with how many of his progeny are signing with major league clubs. Although up to this point he's probably been creating generational child support payments.

 

Wilton Guerrero Jr is coming along nicely too from Vlad Srs brother Wilton Sr.

[connorp]

I wonder if these kids have relationships with each other? Or if they just know that they all exist

 

Kind of depends on the baby mama situation obviously. Like are other baby mamas a threat? Or are you in it together? I feel like since you’re all competing for a slice of the pie, more times than not they would keep their distance. But pure speculation on my part

[Terminator]

 

I don't follow other sports as closely as MLB but it seems like MLB reporters are the biggest group of useful idiots out of any league. Is that correct?

 

This tweet has Duvall's agent all over it, clearly leaking this to Heyman to see if he can get another team involved in the bidding.

[Laika]

Lol imagine bidding on Adam Duvall

[Terminator]

Lol imagine bidding on Adam Duvall

 

You laugh but the Mariners are preparing an offer after reading the Heyman tweet

[jaysblue]

Adam Duvall would be a great fit in Toronto.

[Spanky99]

Adam Duvall would be a great fit in Toronto.

 

If they add 2 bats, sure.

[deanmike]

If they add 2 bats, sure.

 

2 bats are definitely no longer on the menu post Yariel signing. 18-20M projected remaining under the 2nd tax threshold means that signing 1 of Soler/JDM/Joc is going to leave the rest as in season wiggle room for Shatkins.

[BTS]

2 bats are definitely no longer on the menu post Yariel signing. 18-20M projected remaining under the 2nd tax threshold means that signing 1 of Soler/JDM/Joc is going to leave the rest as in season wiggle room for Shatkins.

 

Even if that is the budget, if they really wanted Duvall and Soler they could just trade someone like Garcia

[Spanky99]

2 bats are definitely no longer on the menu post Yariel signing. 18-20M projected remaining under the 2nd tax threshold means that signing 1 of Soler/JDM/Joc is going to leave the rest as in season wiggle room for Shatkins.

 

So you know our payroll?

[deanmike]

So you know our payroll?

 

I heavily doubt ownership authorizes a significant increase in luxury tax commitments after last season was internally viewed as failing to meet expectations. Which is what being a 2nd year 2nd threshold team would qualify as considering the tax thresholds have also increased compared to 2023.

 

Capping the luxury tax commitments just below the 2nd tax threshold would make the 2024 luxury tax commitments borderline identical to the luxury tax commitments of last season's team. So similar down to the surcharges (1st year 2nd threshold tax paying team pays almost identical surcharges to a 2nd year 1st threshold tax paying team).

 

And funnily enough, Shapiro said 2024 budget would be roughly the same as last season. Compare this to the beginning of last offseason when they were asked about the budget and Shatkins were essentially bragging every chance they got that they were the 1st FO to convince Jays ownership under Rogers to not penny pinch and spend into the tax (also being one of the top spending teams in general). If there was another budget increase happening I almost guarantee we would have known about it from Shatkins bragging.

 

I obviously can't say I know what the budget is for certain but I would be very surprised if I was wrong about this (as in the Jays increase budget significantly for a 2nd straight season). 256M as the budget for luxury tax commitments is pretty much as generous of an estimate as I can give outside of a budget increase.

Edited January 19, 2024 by deanmike

[wamco]

So no deadline deals as that would push us into the next bracket?

[deanmike]

So no deadline deals as that would push us into the next bracket?

 

I don't think they'll spend all of the 18-20M in the offseason, like others have said Shatkins usually likes to leave a bit of room under the budget as in season wiggle room.

[Spanky99]

lol... whatever, man.

[max silver]

I heavily doubt ownership authorizes a significant increase in luxury tax commitments after last season was internally viewed as failing to meet expectations. Which is what being a 2nd year 2nd threshold team would qualify as considering the tax thresholds have also increased compared to 2023.

 

Capping the luxury tax commitments just below the 2nd tax threshold would make the 2024 luxury tax commitments borderline identical to the luxury tax commitments of last season's team. So similar down to the surcharges (1st year 2nd threshold tax paying team pays almost identical surcharges to a 2nd year 1st threshold tax paying team).

 

And funnily enough, Shapiro said 2024 budget would be roughly the same as last season. Compare this to the beginning of last offseason when they were asked about the budget and Shatkins were essentially bragging every chance they got that they were the 1st FO to convince Jays ownership under Rogers to not penny pinch and spend into the tax (also being one of the top spending teams in general). If there was another budget increase happening I almost guarantee we would have known about it from Shatkins bragging.

 

I obviously can't say I know what the budget is for certain but I would be very shocked if I was wrong about this (as in the Jays increase budget significantly for a 2nd straight season). 256M as the budget for luxury tax commitments is pretty much as generous of an estimate as I can give outside of a budget increase.

 

There is simply nothing concrete from Shapiro with regards to available payroll for this offseason. There is plenty of room for interpretation as well as far as what a "dramatic philosophical shift in payroll" would actually entail as well. Is this 5%, 10%, 20%, moving up to the next tier of the luxury tax, or something else altogether. Much like Atkins left plenty of room for interpretation on his own comments Shapiro has done the same thing as well. Aside from that, even if the team were actually planning to increase it's payroll there would be absolutely no benefit for announcing this to prospective free agents and opposition general managers.

 

I don’t expect a dramatic philosophical shift in payroll. I expect us to stay in the same area," he said while clarifying he is in the process of finalizing a more concrete number with ownership and suggesting that what the team ultimately ends up spending will be dictated by this winter's market.

 

https://www.tsn.ca/mlb/mark-shapiro-on-toronto-blue-jays-2024-payroll-i-expect-us-to-stay-in-the-same-area-1.2019966

[Jimcanuck]

Rosenthal says the cheaters are really after Hader

 

If they sign him, I wonder if Forrest Whitley is the one that gets dropped

[deanmike]

There is simply nothing concrete from Shapiro with regards to available payroll for this offseason. There is plenty of room for interpretation as well as far as what a "dramatic philosophical shift in payroll" would actually entail as well. Is this 5%, 10%, 20%, moving up to the next tier of the luxury tax, or something else altogether. Much like Atkins left plenty of room for interpretation on his own comments Shapiro has done the same thing as well. Aside from that, even if the team were actually planning to increase it's payroll there would be absolutely no benefit for announcing this to prospective free agents and opposition general managers.

 

 

 

https://www.tsn.ca/mlb/mark-shapiro-on-toronto-blue-jays-2024-payroll-i-expect-us-to-stay-in-the-same-area-1.2019966

 

Ownership authorized a tax bill of roughly 5.5M last season. The tax bill even if my generous estimate is correct will be roughly 6M this season. Trust me Max I seriously doubt ownership authorizes Shatkins crossing into the 2nd threshold again this season, because every million spent after that will be taxed an extra 12%, on top of the Jays already being taxed 30% in general compared to 20% last season for every dollar spent over the tax because they are now a repeat tax team.

 

Basically the Jays are going to have a slightly higher tax bill than last season even if their luxury tax commitments are the same (which is what my estimate is). I find it borderline impossible to imagine that in ownership's eyes (imagine the stingy eyes of Ed Rogers specifically) they want to be paying a significantly higher tax bill than the 2023 team when that team failed to meet the organization's internal expectations.

[L54]

You guys are high if you think Rogers is going to green light spending past the second tax threshold in the winter

[wamco]

I don't think they'll spend all of the 18-20M in the offseason, like others have said Shatkins usually likes to leave a bit of room under the budget as in season wiggle room.

 

You very well could be right. I’m also in the mode of “I’ll believe payroll increases when I see it”

 

Hopefully in conjunction with the renovations though this will occur. I don’t think an offseason of IKF and KK moves the needle. Telling fans, I know vlad sucked for nearly 700 ab last year but this year he is going to be 4x better. You have to trust us on that. Fangraphs said it.

 

Lot of off-season still left though. Hopefully 2 more bats. I am encouraged by Horwitz 1.0 OPS VS Rhp in AAA last year though.

[deanmike]

You guys are high if you think Rogers is going to green light spending past the second tax threshold in the winter

 

3rd threshold is obviously completely out of the question if that's what you're referring to by spending past the 2nd threshold. The Jays spent roughly 4.8M into the 2nd threshold last season so the 2nd threshold has already been greenlit before, but they were a 1st year tax team. This season I doubt they even spend into the 2nd threshold at all being a repeat tax team.

[L54]

I’d be absolutely shocked if they spent more than 20M or whatever Dean has calculated they have left

[L54]

3rd threshold is obviously completely out of the question if that's what you're referring to by spending past the 2nd threshold. The Jays spent roughly 4.8M into the 2nd threshold last season so the 2nd threshold has already been greenlit before, but they were a 1st year tax team. This season I doubt they even spend into the 2nd threshold at all being a repeat tax team.

 

Right they spent into the second last year. Are you saying they’re 20M below reaching the 2nd this year? Because I agree with you I don’t see them spending like Cohen or having the financial muscle to take on bad money to add to the roster

[deanmike]

Right they spent into the second last year. Are you saying they’re 20M below reaching the 2nd this year? Because I agree with you I don’t see them spending like Cohen or having the financial muscle to take on bad money to add to the roster

 

The assumption for the 20M when I said 18-20 range is Vlad loses his arb case and Yariel's AAV spread on his 4 year deal is an even split.

 

Most likely neither of those things will be true, because I've read that Vlad most likely wins his arb case if it goes that far (Fangraphs projected him to make 500k more than what his ask was). Also the AAV on Yariel's deal almost certainly won't be an even split, but I assumed that for simplicity sake.

[Terminator]

Ownership authorized a tax bill of roughly 5.5M last season. The tax bill even if my generous estimate is correct will be roughly 6M this season. Trust me Max I seriously doubt ownership authorizes Shatkins crossing into the 2nd threshold again this season, because every million spent after that will be taxed an extra 12%, on top of the Jays already being taxed 30% in general compared to 20% last season for every dollar spent over the tax because they are now a repeat tax team.

 

Basically the Jays are going to have a slightly higher tax bill than last season even if their luxury tax commitments are the same (which is what my estimate is). I find it borderline impossible to imagine that in ownership's eyes (imagine the stingy eyes of Ed Rogers specifically) they want to be paying a significantly higher tax bill than the 2023 team when that team failed to meet the organization's internal expectations.

 

You are only taxed on the overages so if they are barely over the tax threshold it barely matters. 20, 30, and 50 percent taxes on being 5 mil over isn't that big of a deal. I agree that they are unlikely to ever eclipse the next threshold.

[L54]

The assumption for the 20M when I said 18-20 range is Vlad loses his arb case and Yariel's AAV spread on his 4 year deal is an even split.

 

Most likely neither of those things will be true, because I've read that Vlad most likely wins his arb case if it goes that far (Fangraphs projected him to make 500k more than what his ask was). Also the AAV on Yariel's deal almost certainly won't be an even split, but I assumed that for simplicity sake.

 

AAV will be 8M because that’s how it’s calculated for luxury tax purposes

 

I haven’t crunched any numbers but I agree with what you’re saying - they have room to add one of the good DH bats and that’s about it. And that’s what Atkins said basically

[L54]

The dream of adding two of Chapman/Bellinger/JDM/Hoskins whoever is over boys

[Laika]

AAV will be 8M because that’s how it’s calculated for luxury tax purposes

 

I haven’t crunched any numbers but I agree with what you’re saying - they have room to add one of the good DH bats and that’s about it. And that’s what Atkins said basically

 

Well, at least it will be a good DH + this Cuban wildcard rather than just a DH

[L54]

Well, at least it will be a good DH + this Cuban wildcard rather than just a DH

 

Agreed 1000%. I thought it was just going to be a DH and that’s it. If they do Cuban and JDM or Hoskins that’ll be okay

 

Sucks that JDM is a pylon but I think he’s the best hitter of the guys available