Around Baseball 2024

[BigCecil]

Stroman to the Yankees on a two-year deal.

 

f***ing Yanks. If they get some injury luck this year they will be tough.

[Stangstag]

Stroman signs with the Yankees. Terms seem to be 2/37 with a 3rd year option. That’s a steal for the Yankees.

 

Good deal

[Stangstag]

Remember when it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Toronto would trade him to the Yankees and then they sent him to the… Mets. Good times

 

Lol that was fun

[John_Havok]

f***ing Yanks. If they get some injury luck this year they will be tough.

 

Even without injury luck they'll be tough. Cole, Cortez, Schmidt and Stro is a legit top 4 without even thinking about Rodon.

 

What's going to suck extra hard is when the Yanks sign Hader.

[Jonn]

Even without injury luck they'll be tough. Cole, Cortez, Schmidt and Stro is a legit top 4 without even thinking about Rodon.

 

What's going to suck extra hard is when the Yanks sign Hader.

 

Jays should be all over Hader and bring back Hicks as well. Considering they don’t let Starters go deep into games. Stack up the Bullpen.

[John_Havok]

Jays should be all over Hader and bring back Hicks as well. Considering they don’t let Starters go deep into games. Stack up the Bullpen.

 

Absolutely, though they let their starters go deeper than most. 3 guys with 185+ and one with 170 isnt exactly evidence of chronic early hooks.

[Jonn]

Absolutely, though they let their starters go deeper than most. 3 guys with 185+ and one with 170 isnt exactly evidence of chronic early hooks.

 

In the regular Season its fine. Playoffs is the concern. If they are going to manage like that they need to atleast have the weapons to support the theory. Last year's playoff bullpen is probably the best bullpen we have had would like to see them build on that.

[Jays24]

Jays should be all over Hader and bring back Hicks as well. Considering they don’t let Starters go deep into games. Stack up the Bullpen.

 

Getting Hadar would be so ideal... I'm ok with letting Hicks go if that were the case. Most of us are still hoping for the move that says "we are definitely better than last year."

[Cbert]

Getting Hadar would be so ideal... I'm ok with letting Hicks go if that were the case. Most of us are still hoping for the move that says "we are definitely better than last year."

 

I’d love to get hader but I’d also love this team to spend 260-270 on payroll over the next few years to fill some glaring holes while backfilling with young guys over that time. Unfortunately I don’t think that’s happening, so would 5/100 for Hader really be money better spent than say 8/160 for Belly? This lineup as currently constructed isn’t long and pitchers are gonna be camping out on the outside part of the plate against all our righties unless we add some middle of the order lefty bats.

 

I know Joc could be a good lefty option for cheap, too, but Belly would also give the Jays a lot of options by allowing them to rotate guys through DH while still having a legit defender/bat in the field

[jaysblue]

Getting Hadar would be so ideal... I'm ok with letting Hicks go if that were the case. Most of us are still hoping for the move that says "we are definitely better than last year."

 

Yeah so far the Jays haven't made any moves this offseason which makes me say "they are definitely better than last year." Right now if things stay the status quo, only way they're better is if certain players have big bounce backs. They still have time to add, so hoping they could get one of JDM or Hoskins or Soler on the right deal and make a splash in the pen like with a Josh Hader. KK and IKF were nice depth pieces, but even still if both get around 400-500 PA, likely looking at 2 WAR max if lucky. Need to make up for the lost WAR from Chapman to IKF, if the Jays plan on having IKF starting a majority of games at third. Also, need to still replace Belt and other pieces like Hicks.

 

Right now, I don't see them being anything more than an 88-90 win team.

[jaysblue]

Even without injury luck they'll be tough. Cole, Cortez, Schmidt and Stro is a legit top 4 without even thinking about Rodon.

 

What's going to suck extra hard is when the Yanks sign Hader.

 

Yeah Yankees will be tougher and better than last season. Even stated that several times over the summer and early fall. You can never count them out, especially after a rough 2023 season, you knew they were going to make some big moves. Adding Soto, along with Verdugo, Grisham and Stroman isn't bad. Their rotation of Cole, Cortes, Stroman, Schmidt, and Rodon is very good. If Rodon is healthy and returns to his 2021/2022 form, watch out. All they really need is a 3B like Chapman and add to their pen, then they are pretty much set.

[jaysblue]

In the regular Season its fine. Playoffs is the concern. If they are going to manage like that they need to atleast have the weapons to support the theory. Last year's playoff bullpen is probably the best bullpen we have had would like to see them build on that.

 

Yeah if the Jays are going to manage most games like they did in Game 2, they need to build on their strong bullpen. Hader definitely would be a nice replacement over Hicks and even better.

 

As well with the bullpen, we can't assume and expect every BP arm from last season to repeat their success in 2024. Bullpen arms are volatile from year-to-year.

[max silver]

Yeah if the Jays are going to manage most games like they did in Game 2, they need to build on their strong bullpen. Hader definitely would be a nice replacement over Hicks and even better.

 

As well with the bullpen, we can't assume and expect every BP arm from last season to repeat their success in 2024. Bullpen arms are volatile from year-to-year.

 

I think the game 2 tomfoolery was largely a function of the team not trusting it's offense to be able to win a game on it's own with more traditional strategy and wouldn't have happened if the offense wasn't so anemic throughout the season. If there are limited dollars available I'd like to see more bats added, but if something like Chapman/Bellinger and a DH bat doesn't fit the budget then I'd be cool with a DH bat and bullpen reinforcements.

[BigCecil]

Right now, I don't see them being anything more than an 88-90 win team.

 

89 W in '23. Much depends on Springer & Vlad bounce backs and health of the rotation. Throw Manoah, Kirk offense in that mix along with whatever bat(s) they sign.

 

They lost 6 WAR with Belt & Chappy. IKF was 0.2 WAR in '23 and KK projects 1 WAR in '24. Last year 2.2.

[John_Havok]

List of all possible arb hearings coming up unless deals are made between now and then:

 

Taylor Ward: $4.8MM in desired salary….Angels offered $4.3MM (via MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand)

Jose Suarez: $1.35MM….Angels $925K (via Feinsand)

Mauricio Dubon: $3.5MM….Astros $3MM (via Feinsand)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: $19.9MM….Blue Jays $18.05MM (via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet)

Tommy Edman: $6.95MM….Cardinals $6.5MM (via Feinsand)

 

J.D. Davis: $6.9MM….Giants $6.55MM (via Feinsand)

Luis Arraez: $12MM….Marlins $10.6MM (via Feinsand)

Tanner Scott: $5.7MM….Marlins $5.15MM (via Feinsand)

Jazz Chisholm Jr.: $2.9MM….Marlins $2.625MM (via Feinsand)

Phil Bickford: $900K….Mets $815K (via Feinsand)

 

Austin Hays: $6.3MM….Orioles $5.85MM (via Feinsand)

Ryan O’Hearn: $3.8MM….Orioles $3.2MM (via Feinsand)

Danny Coulombe: $2.4MM….Orioles $2.2MM (via Feinsand)

Cionel Perez: $1.4MM….Orioles $1.1MM (via Feinsand)

Jacob Webb: $1MM….Orioles $925K (via Feinsand)

Alec Bohm: $4MM….Phillies $3.4MM (via Feinsand)

 

Adolis Garcia: $6.9MM….Rangers $5MM (via Feinsand)

Harold Ramirez: $4.3MM….Rays $3.8MM (via Feinsand)

Jason Adam: $3.25MM….Rays $2.7MM (via Feinsand)

Jonathan India: $4MM….Reds $3.2MM (via The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmeyer)

Casey Mize: $840K….Tigers $815K (via Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic)

Nick Gordon: $1.25MM….Twins $900K (via Feinsand)

[The Cats Ass]

Even without injury luck they'll be tough. Cole, Cortez, Schmidt and Stro is a legit top 4 without even thinking about Rodon.

 

What's going to suck extra hard is when the Yanks sign Hader.

 

I wouldn't really want to count on Cortes, and Schmidt is like a #5?

[BTS]

Goddamn, Braves extended AA through 2031

[John_Havok]

I wouldn't really want to count on Cortes, and Schmidt is like a #5?

 

True, and yeah in my list i wasn't intending to list them in order of skill. In that list it would be Cole, Stro/Cortes, Schmidt. Rodon ... at his best would be after Cole

[Jimcanuck]

Michael Busch to the Cubs, nice pickup by them

[Brownie19]

Yeah so far the Jays haven't made any moves this offseason which makes me say "they are definitely better than last year." Right now if things stay the status quo, only way they're better is if certain players have big bounce backs. They still have time to add, so hoping they could get one of JDM or Hoskins or Soler on the right deal and make a splash in the pen like with a Josh Hader. KK and IKF were nice depth pieces, but even still if both get around 400-500 PA, likely looking at 2 WAR max if lucky. Need to make up for the lost WAR from Chapman to IKF, if the Jays plan on having IKF starting a majority of games at third. Also, need to still replace Belt and other pieces like Hicks.

 

Right now, I don't see them being anything more than an 88-90 win team.

 

A full year of Green is an improvement and should more than replace the 0.2 WAR Hicks provided to the Jays last year (and the 0.3 that Green provided himself). Seems highly likely they'll add a DH, who will replace Belt's production. What is ironic is that this time last year, most agreed this was a legit WS contending team. Running it back with a very similar roster seems like a disappointment and failure - but that's almost entirely based on the recency bias of the results of 2023. The reality is that this is still a very good baseball team as is. Yes, some players are year older and that's likely to hurt them a bit - but we're also full of players who are still young and/or entering their prime. Just as you'd expect the old guys to slow a bit, you should also expect the younger players to improve a bit with experience.

 

Would anyone be shocked if we got career years out of Bo, Vlad, Jansen, Biggio, Varsho, Kirk, Espinal, IKF, etc? I certainly wouldn't be (and yes, I understand there are different probabilities of each having a career year).

 

Also - the goal is to be the best team in October - not May. I think we forget that sometimes.

[BTS]

Michael Busch to the Cubs, nice pickup by them

 

Kind of feel bad for him in that his blocked again, this time by Hoerner. Unless they plan on trying him at 3B or corer OF?

[Brownie19]

Kind of feel bad for him in that his blocked again, this time by Hoerner. Unless they plan on trying him at 3B or corer OF?

 

They must plan on giving him a shot no? They gave up a 2022 2nd round pick to get him (who was coming off a solid season). Isn't Busch really just a DH?

[Jimcanuck]

Kind of feel bad for him in that his blocked again, this time by Hoerner. Unless they plan on trying him at 3B or corer OF?

 

At 1B

 

RosterResource and BA both say the Cubs will plant him at 1B

 

Mervis must be relegated

[Orgfiller]

Kind of feel bad for him in that his blocked again, this time by Hoerner. Unless they plan on trying him at 3B or corer OF?

 

Nah the Cubs traded some decent prospects for him, they'll use him. Whom this actually sucks the most for is Matt Mervis, as between Busch and Morel he might be getting extra blocked at 1B/DH. They could try Busch at third but he really just shouldn't be playing a position.

[John_Havok]

A full year of Green is an improvement and should more than replace the 0.2 WAR Hicks provided to the Jays last year (and the 0.3 that Green provided himself). Seems highly likely they'll add a DH, who will replace Belt's production. What is ironic is that this time last year, most agreed this was a legit WS contending team. Running it back with a very similar roster seems like a disappointment and failure - but that's almost entirely based on the recency bias of the results of 2023. The reality is that this is still a very good baseball team as is. Yes, some players are year older and that's likely to hurt them a bit - but we're also full of players who are still young and/or entering their prime. Just as you'd expect the old guys to slow a bit, you should also expect the younger players to improve a bit with experience.

 

Would anyone be shocked if we got career years out of Bo, Vlad, Jansen, Biggio, Varsho, Kirk, Espinal, IKF, etc? I certainly wouldn't be (and yes, I understand there are different probabilities of each having a career year).

 

Also - the goal is to be the best team in October - not May. I think we forget that sometimes.

 

Thing is, we dont even need career years from those guys for the Jays to be better in 2024.

 

even 3 WAR Vlad from 2022 is 2 wins better than last year. Somewhere between 2021 and 2022 vlad he's 4-5 wins. Im not counting on the latter, but I think the former is a realistic expectation.

A healthy Bo that doesnt miss 100 PAs like he did in 2023 still gets 4.5-5 WAR....that's another +1 win. This should be the expectation.

A league average hitting Varsho is a 4-5 WAR...2-3 more wins. same as Bo, not outlandish expectations.

 

Biggio is already a league average regular over a full season, as a backup. It would be hard to really expect more than that.

IKF will be better than 2022 just because he wont be playing defense in a place where he has no value. He wont be Chappy level wins, but wont suck (at least with the glove).

KK will be KK

Jansen will be Jansen

Espinal likely won't play enough for his numbers to move the needle one way or the other.

Kirk is really the only guy there who I'm not really sure what to expect, other than being in less than good shape.

Springer with even a slight regression back to his career norms would be a boon.

 

The questions about whether or not the team is worse than 2023 I think is on the pitching staff, not the offense or defense.

[BTS]

At 1B

 

RosterResource and BA both say the Cubs will plant him at 1B

 

Mervis must be relegated

 

Nah the Cubs traded some decent prospects for him, they'll use him. Whom this actually sucks the most for is Matt Mervis, as between Busch and Morel he might be getting extra blocked at 1B/DH. They could try Busch at third but he really just shouldn't be playing a position.

 

Ah, didn't realize he has basically been moved off 2B.

[wilko]

Thing is, we dont even need career years from those guys for the Jays to be better in 2024.

 

even 3 WAR Vlad from 2022 is 2 wins better than last year. Somewhere between 2021 and 2022 vlad he's 4-5 wins. Im not counting on the latter, but I think the former is a realistic expectation.

A healthy Bo that doesnt miss 100 PAs like he did in 2023 still gets 4.5-5 WAR....that's another +1 win. This should be the expectation.

A league average hitting Varsho is a 4-5 WAR...2-3 more wins. same as Bo, not outlandish expectations.

 

Biggio is already a league average regular over a full season, as a backup. It would be hard to really expect more than that.

IKF will be better than 2022 just because he wont be playing defense in a place where he has no value. He wont be Chappy level wins, but wont suck (at least with the glove).

KK will be KK

Jansen will be Jansen

Espinal likely won't play enough for his numbers to move the needle one way or the other.

Kirk is really the only guy there who I'm not really sure what to expect, other than being in less than good shape.

Springer with even a slight regression back to his career norms would be a boon.

 

The questions about whether or not the team is worse than 2023 I think is on the pitching staff, not the offense or defense.

 

If the pitching staff can somehow do what they did last year or somewhat close to that.. The playoffs will be easy to make. PLUS the question mark of Manoah.. If he can bounce back to what he was, that would be a nice bonus. I'm not holding my breath for a sub 3 ERA, but a low/mid 4 wouldn't even be that bad.

[Frenchsoup]

Biggio will be a stud this year if utilized correctly for once...top of the order Catalyst against rightys...

[Laika]

0 WAR team wins like 47 games.

Toronto projects for 43.3 WAR with current roster, per Steamer.

 

90.3 win projection.

 

5th in baseball, but closer to #10 (Mets, 40.2 WAR) than even #4 (Astros, 47.3 WAR).

 

AL EAST goes

Yankees - 48.3

Jays - 43.3

Rays - 40.9

Orioles - 39.9

Sox - 35.7

 

 

 

Need to add some f***ing wins. It would be great to add like 4 projected WAR somehow, to get closer to the Yankees by projections... and further from TB and BAL. Stankees probably have more downside risk to their projection based on age, youth, injury problems, that kind of s***.

[Eat My Shatkins]

0 WAR team wins like 47 games.

Toronto projects for 43.3 WAR with current roster, per Steamer.

 

90.3 win projection.

 

5th in baseball, but closer to #10 (Mets, 40.2 WAR) than even #4 (Astros, 47.3 WAR).

 

AL EAST goes

Yankees - 48.3

Jays - 43.3

Rays - 40.9

Orioles - 39.9

Sox - 35.7

 

 

 

Need to add some f***ing wins. It would be great to add like 4 projected WAR somehow, to get closer to the Yankees by projections... and further from TB and BAL. Stankees probably have more downside risk to their projection based on age, youth, injury problems, that kind of s***.

 

Well, if the Jays want to pour the cock to her they can pony up and add:

 

Bellinger 2.6 proj

Chappy 2.7 proj

Hader 1.7 proj

 

+7 proj WAR but it would cost them like what....$300-400 million or so combined? Plus a lot of pain a few years down the road probably.