Jays sign IKF.... 2/15 LOL... F U Wacko!

[connorp]

What voodoo metric is this that you are referencing? Varsho was exactly average by wRC+ in 2021 and 7% above league average by wRC+ in 2022. You should chill out here, Varsho is a low average/high power hitter when he's at his best, but that is far from a terrible hitter despite your incoherent ranting.

 

Why would be taling about Varsho there, and then close out how he did with his last sentence?

[Terminator]

The more I think about the IKF signing the more I love it.

 

I wonder if he can hit leadoff?

 

lol

[Eat My Shatkins]

You want him to hit lead off?

 

(Per MLBTR) Kiner-Falefa hit .242/.306/.340 over 361 plate appearances with the Yankees last season, essentially matching his .261/.314/.346 slash line over 2415 career PA at the big league level. This translates to an 81 wRC+ — tied for the fourth-lowest total of any player with more than 2000 PA since the start of the 2018 season.

 

Pretty sure he's just f***ing with the folks who are hating on this signing, like saskjaysfan lol

[L54]

A plus 3B with decent BsR and an 85 wRC+ could literally be a 2 win player

 

Nothing to sneeze at

 

Go look at Maikel Garcia 2023.

 

Or various Ryan McMahon seasons.

 

Say his name

 

It’s Brian Anderson

[max silver]

Why would be taling about Varsho there, and then close out how he did with his last sentence?

 

Huh? This post makes absolutely no sense.

[glory]

The exit velocity and hard hit % increases were a result of an adjustment IKF and the Yankees made in 2023, so that at least paints a rosier picture for why the Jays coveted him, especially if they keep him in the infield (3B specifically) rather than put him in the OF.

[connorp]

Huh? This post makes absolutely no sense.

 

Max, I can’t wipe your ass for you. Go back and read it all again and figure it out yourself. Maybe you need to get laid.

[connorp]

Pretty sure he's just f***ing with the folks who are hating on this signing, like saskjaysfan lol

 

His trolling is usually more subtle.

[saskjayfan]

Varsho strikes out at approximately 1% higher than league average. You are acting completely irrational in nearly all of your posts lately, it seems like maybe somebody needs to get laid or something.

 

His contact rate is 77% for his career. League average is 80%. His hard contact rate is 36.3% for his career, which is roughly 20th percentile. Combine the two and you get an xwoba of .302 which was 19th percentile. I feel like these numbers aren't getting better. The book is out on him. If he makes adjustments and hits well next year, feel free to call me an idiot. I just don't see it with Varsho. He's really susceptible to high velocity up in the zone. I also didn't like the IKF move. It's just my opionion. I actually didn't mind the KK move as I'm not a big Varsho fan. I'd love the KK move if we traded Varsho.

 

I'm married, so yeah, I need to get laid. Thanks for your concern..lol.

Edited December 29, 2023 by saskjayfan

[jaysblue]

 

Max will always defend Varsho till the end.

[max silver]

 

Max will always defend Varsho till the end.

 

Got something of use to add here? Feel free to pick a side and add to the debate.

[max silver]

Max, I can’t wipe your ass for you. Go back and read it all again and figure it out yourself. Maybe you need to get laid.

 

Why would be taling about Varsho there, and then close out how he did with his last sentence?

 

That post might as well be written in gobbledygook. You need to learn how to string words together into a sentence that resembles the English language.

[max silver]

His contact rate is 77% for his career. League average is 80%. His hard contact rate is 36.3% for his career, which is roughly 20th percentile. Combine the too and you get an xwoba of .302 which was 19th percentile. I feel like these numbers aren't getting better. The book is out on him. If he makes adjustments and hits well next year, feel free to call me an idiot. I just don't see it with Varsho. He's really susceptible to high velocity up in the zone. I also didn't like the IKF move. It's just my opionion. I actually didn't mind the KK move as I'm not a big Varsho fan. I'd love the KK move if we traded Varsho.

 

I'm married, so yeah, I need to get laid. Thanks for your concern..lol.

 

I don't think anyone is going to have a chance to make any sort of realistic case for Varsho ever providing much more than a touch above league average offense in a typical season, but that's a far cry from trying to make a case that the guy has never produced at the plate and is never going to produce ever again. Despite the tough 2023 season he still has produced a 96 wRC+ for his career up to this point, and he's shown nothing to categorically prove that he can't return to previous levels of success or improve his 2023 results. This is a player who had really nice minor league numbers, and in his first two seasons as a regular he produced league average or slightly better offensively. His early projections each show a fair bit of improvement from the 2023 struggles, with ZiPS projecting a 109 OPS+ and Steamer projecting a 108 wRC+. Perhaps those might be a touch optimistic but if two separate projection systems expect a significant bounceback from a single down season then it seems perfectly reasonable to expect for this to occur.

 

XWOBA is not a perfect stat, and on it's own does not paint a complete picture of player performance in a singular season. It has a rather glaring omission in that it does not include spray angle, so as a result it can tend to undervalue players who have the ability to pull fly balls into the seats despite underwhelming exit velocity numbers. WOBA and xWOBA are not 100% correlated to each other, and as such there will be seasons where a player outperforms their expected stats, and seasons where they underperform their expected stats. Varsho had one season where he outperformed his expected stats by 20 points, and 1 season where he underperformed his expected stats by 10 points. With a 100% direct correlation perhaps his career wRC+ output would drop by a few points, but this wouldn't likely be a drastic swing dropping him to something like a career 80 wRC+.

 

If you look at Varsho's home/away splits there is one particular component which sticks out like a sore thumb.

 

Home vs R 52 wRC+

Home vs L 84 wRC+

Away vs R 105 wRC+

Away vs L 120 wRC+

 

Varsho's 2023 numbers were essentially ruined because he struggled against right handed pitching in the Rogers Center. This is a player with a 101 career wRC+ vs right handed pitching, so there is good reason to expect that this will be a crazy anomaly which is not going to happen again in the future.

 

You are making this grand declaration about the book being out on Varsho after a single down season at the plate. From the listed splits it appears as though he only had a massive hole against right handed pitching, but then only at home at Rogers Center. I guess opposition pitchers chose not to exploit this uncorrectable hole on the road in order to be fair to Varsho or something.

 

You have declared that Varsho has some sort of fatal flaw in his swing where he has no chance to make adjustments. Varsho actually made an adjustment by adding a toe tap in early August, and this immediately saw an improvement to his results. Over his last 50 games he produced a 116 wRC+ including incremental improvements to his batted ball metrics, strikeout and walk rates, with the biggest gains seen in a return of his HR/FB rate returning to values more resembling his career norms.

[TheHurl]

The more I think about the IKF signing the more I love it.

 

I wonder if he can hit leadoff?

 

In 350 PAs out of the 2 hole he has a .360 OBP. Lock him in to the 2 hole for 162 games

[connorp]

That post might as well be written in gobbledygook. You need to learn how to string words together into a sentence that resembles the English language.

 

Since you’re not going to figure it out on your own, the below league average numbers you quoted were for IKF, not Varsho. It wss clear from his post he was saying IKF was a below average bat and then you start carrying on where he’s making up these numbers for Varsho. I was trying to help you, Max. Geez.

[max silver]

Since you’re not going to figure it out on your own, the below league average numbers you quoted were for IKF, not Varsho. It wss clear from his post he was saying IKF was a below average bat and then you start carrying on where he’s making up these numbers for Varsho. I was trying to help you, Max. Geez.

 

He's dogshit. 6.8 mil of free agent dollars should have been allocated to premium free agents. Martinez, Schneider, Biggio, Espi, Barger, Horowitz, clement, Lopez, Palmegiani. They have cover for 2nd, 3rd, outfield. This front office is too stubborn to realize Varsho is never going to hit. This team needs offense.

 

BTS was obviously replying to the bolded section in this post, and things went off the rails when AngrySaskfan or whatever his name is missed that in his reply.

[Frenchsoup]

Biggio

IKF

Votto

Vlad

Varsho

Spring

Adames

Jansen

Kiermier

[connorp]

BTS was obviously replying to the bolded section in this post, and things went off the rails when AngrySaskfan or whatever his name is missed that in his reply.

 

Well, I called out BTs too for cherry picking a line that wasn’t relevant to the argument at hand, thereby causing the resulting confusion that you weren’t able to avoid either. Reading is hard nowadays

[saskjayfan]

I don't think anyone is going to have a chance to make any sort of realistic case for Varsho ever providing much more than a touch above league average offense in a typical season, but that's a far cry from trying to make a case that the guy has never produced at the plate and is never going to produce ever again. Despite the tough 2023 season he still has produced a 96 wRC+ for his career up to this point, and he's shown nothing to categorically prove that he can't return to previous levels of success or improve his 2023 results. This is a player who had really nice minor league numbers, and in his first two seasons as a regular he produced league average or slightly better offensively. His early projections each show a fair bit of improvement from the 2023 struggles, with ZiPS projecting a 109 OPS+ and Steamer projecting a 108 wRC+. Perhaps those might be a touch optimistic but if two separate projection systems expect a significant bounceback from a single down season then it seems perfectly reasonable to expect for this to occur.

 

XWOBA is not a perfect stat, and on it's own does not paint a complete picture of player performance in a singular season. It has a rather glaring omission in that it does not include spray angle, so as a result it can tend to undervalue players who have the ability to pull fly balls into the seats despite underwhelming exit velocity numbers. WOBA and xWOBA are not 100% correlated to each other, and as such there will be seasons where a player outperforms their expected stats, and seasons where they underperform their expected stats. Varsho had one season where he outperformed his expected stats by 20 points, and 1 season where he underperformed his expected stats by 10 points. With a 100% direct correlation perhaps his career wRC+ output would drop by a few points, but this wouldn't likely be a drastic swing dropping him to something like a career 80 wRC+.

 

If you look at Varsho's home/away splits there is one particular component which sticks out like a sore thumb.

 

Home vs R 52 wRC+

Home vs L 84 wRC+

Away vs R 105 wRC+

Away vs L 120 wRC+

 

Varsho's 2023 numbers were essentially ruined because he struggled against right handed pitching in the Rogers Center. This is a player with a 101 career wRC+ vs right handed pitching, so there is good reason to expect that this will be a crazy anomaly which is not going to happen again in the future.

 

You are making this grand declaration about the book being out on Varsho after a single down season at the plate. From the listed splits it appears as though he only had a massive hole against right handed pitching, but then only at home at Rogers Center. I guess opposition pitchers chose not to exploit this uncorrectable hole on the road in order to be fair to Varsho or something.

 

You have declared that Varsho has some sort of fatal flaw in his swing where he has no chance to make adjustments. Varsho actually made an adjustment by adding a toe tap in early August, and this immediately saw an improvement to his results. Over his last 50 games he produced a 116 wRC+ including incremental improvements to his batted ball metrics, strikeout and walk rates, with the biggest gains seen in a return of his HR/FB rate returning to values more resembling his career norms.

 

It's bizarre how you're cherry picking stats now. Away 120 wRC+ yes that's sustainable. Let's dive in to small sample size anomolies. Varsho had a .775 OPS in August. A .739 OPS in Sept/OCT. He also had .765 OPS in June with awful April and July's. Players are streaky. Was his last two months a product of the toe tap? I guess time will tell. I hope I am wrong on him. I see him as 5% to 10% below league average hitter, which is better than IKF..lol You think he's 5% to 10% better than league average. That's not miles apart. We shall see.

[max silver]

It's bizarre how you're cherry picking stats now. Away 120 wRC+ yes that's sustainable. Let's dive in to small sample size anomolies. Varsho had a .775 OPS in August. A .739 OPS in Sept/OCT. He also had .765 OPS in June with awful April and July's. Players are streaky. Was his last two months a product of the toe tap? I guess time will tell. I hope I am wrong on him. I see him as 5% to 10% below league average hitter, which is better than IKF..lol You think he's 5% to 10% better than league average. That's not miles apart. We shall see.

So now you are dramatically changing your tune. After carrying on about how Varsho was dogshit, had never hit in his career and was never going to hit in his career you are now claiming he's a touch below average as a hitter. Pick a lane dude.

[saskjayfan]

So now you are dramatically changing your tune. After carrying on about how Varsho was dogshit, had never hit in his career and was never going to hit in his career you are now claiming he's a touch below average as a hitter. Pick a lane dude.

 

I said IKF is Dogshit. I mixed in commentary about Varsho with IKF. As the roster is constructed, I would rather sacrifice defense for offense. If Varsho is .680 to 7.20 OPS guy I think he is, I'd rather trade him for offense seeing as how we resigned KK. This isn't going to happen. I fully hope I'm wrong and he's .760 yo .780 OPS guy some think he can be. Varsho has some real power, so it's within the realm of possiblity. I think he has real trade value today. If he puts up an OPS of .680 this year his trade value plummets. You can take solace in the fact that I'm wrong a lot. We're never more convicted about our opinions than the off season when we don't have daily games providing data to humble our opinions. I still don't like the IKF signing. I hope we get a legit DH bat soon.

 

Im not all doom and gloom. I think the only thing holding Kirk back from posting an OPS north of .800 is getting in shape. If the pictures we've seen are accurate he's on that path. I expect Vlad to bounce back as well. Can we get Hoskins or Martinez, even Soler. That would make me less grumpy.

[L54]

It's bizarre how you're cherry picking stats now. Away 120 wRC+ yes that's sustainable. Let's dive in to small sample size anomolies. Varsho had a .775 OPS in August. A .739 OPS in Sept/OCT. He also had .765 OPS in June with awful April and July's. Players are streaky. Was his last two months a product of the toe tap? I guess time will tell. I hope I am wrong on him. I see him as 5% to 10% below league average hitter, which is better than IKF..lol You think he's 5% to 10% better than league average. That's not miles apart. We shall see.

 

Max would literally try and justify why selling s*** sandwiches is a profitable move for The Keg if that’s how he felt

[wilko]

Max would literally try and justify why selling s*** sandwiches is a profitable move for The Keg if that’s how he felt

 

That's not a bad idea. s***'s pretty cheap these days.

[L54]

That's not a bad idea. s***'s pretty cheap these days.

 

Idk input costs are higher than they’ve ever been

[John_Havok]

I said IKF is Dogshit. I mixed in commentary about Varsho with IKF. As the roster is constructed, I would rather sacrifice defense for offense. If Varsho is .680 to 7.20 OPS guy I think he is, I'd rather trade him for offense seeing as how we resigned KK. This isn't going to happen. I fully hope I'm wrong and he's .760 yo .780 OPS guy some think he can be. Varsho has some real power, so it's within the realm of possiblity. I think he has real trade value today. If he puts up an OPS of .680 this year his trade value plummets. You can take solace in the fact that I'm wrong a lot. We're never more convicted about our opinions than the off season when we don't have daily games providing data to humble our opinions. I still don't like the IKF signing. I hope we get a legit DH bat soon.

 

Im not all doom and gloom. I think the only thing holding Kirk back from posting an OPS north of .800 is getting in shape. If the pictures we've seen are accurate he's on that path. I expect Vlad to bounce back as well. Can we get Hoskins or Martinez, even Soler. That would make me less grumpy.

 

I dunno, I think if you’re unsure where the power is going to come from, you pretty much have to stock up on defense as your insurance policy. Pitching +defense and just get in, while not the end goal of course, isn’t a terrible worst case scenario.

 

Yes I still want two bigger bats added.

[Jonn]

Seeing the official announcement was extremely painful. I was hoping the number was wrong on the reports. Edited January 1, 2024 by Jonn

[BCZ]

Biggio

IKF

Votto

Vlad

Varsho

Spring

Adames

Jansen

Kiermier

 

Old man Votto doesn't provide a lot of value anymore except to wave his hat around... admittedly he got BABID'd last season but at 40+ I'm not taking that gamble

[Terminator]

Is Fangraphs on Christmas break or something? Been waiting on the write up for the IKF signing and there's nothing.

[TheHurl]

That's not a bad idea. s***'s pretty cheap these days.

 

Are you kidding $1500 a month for stool samples these days. https://goodnatureprogram.com/how-it-works/#:~:text=Get%20Paid%20to%20Poop.,could%20help%20potentially%20save%20lives. The one advantage is that it already comes with sides

[max silver]

Are you kidding $1500 a month for stool samples these days. https://goodnatureprogram.com/how-it-works/#:~:text=Get%20Paid%20to%20Poop.,could%20help%20potentially%20save%20lives. The one advantage is that it already comes with sides

 

Damn that sounds like really easy money. I once had to provide a stool sample and it was pretty damn gross, but I poop every day anyway so it would be great to turn literal s*** into cash.