Ohtani Thread - Special Sheriff's Edition (Update: confirmed going to the Dodgers)

[RobinThicc]

Rosenthal said he had a "credible source yesterday tell me it was Toronto" but checked it (im guessing with Ohtani's camp?) and was told "we do not have a decision".

 

I wonder if its the same source that said Ohtani visited Dunedin.

 

 

3:42

[Terminator]

If the Jays can’t get a top FA to bite they need to flex their financial muscle via trade.

 

Jose Ramirez probably isn’t available. Luis Robert might not be either but the White Sox are clearly rebuilding. And if we really have all this money I think we could take on some bad contracts to help facilitate a deal. Reinsdorf is an all-time cheap ass and if they are going to suck why not cut over 40 mil off the books?

 

Robert has a shitload of surplus value on his team friendly contract but if you take on Benitendi and Moncada (both of whom have negative value) you can lower the overall package to the point that Tiedeman alone makes the deal about even steven according to mlb trades values.

 

Benitendi can be an overpriced 4th OF and Moncada can start at 3rd. And losing Tiedeman sucks but if you are acquiring a stud like Robert who is under plenty of team control it’s worth it.

[Laika]

Go all in on the Bo window lmao.

 

Cease, Robert, Benintendi, and Moncada

 

for

 

Tiedemann, Manoah, Orelvis, Leo Jimenez, and some low level prospects.

[JaysAllMighty]

Yikes

 

[Pendleton]

Yikes

 

 

He'll out earn a max NHL contract (8 years x 16.7M) by the end of year two...

[wamco]

That CAA ploy I could see being done by Lori, perhaps even Barbara, but not Robert

[max silver]

No not really… I think there is some ongoing metrics database they use to value free agents internally and they stick to their internal valuation rating system!

 

If Bellinger is rated internally as a contract of max 5 years 175 million and the bidding market dictates 200+ they won’t bend period!!!

 

You will never see Jays brass overpay based on internal valuation system! They will NEVER trump another team in a bidding war just to get that “one player” they need to put them over the top. So if bidding war starts for Bellinger, J.D. Martinez, Japanese pitchers Jays will be used again by agents to drive up bidding war to max value for each free agents.

 

That’s my opinion and I stand by it!!!

 

You will NEVER hear that Atkins and Shapiro overpaid for x and y free agents… That is the Cleveland model they carried to Toronto!!!

 

From what I could gather they had to up the ante and add a 4th year to the Ryu deal that nobody else was willing to offer. I've also seen it suggested they were the highest bidder for Springer as well. There is nothing wrong with refusing to sign guys at any cost as it just ends up reducing the ability to surround the players with more top talent.

[MikeM3]

I'll choose to believe Atkins played along with this charade because it at least takes the Dodgers out of Yamamoto.

[max silver]

I'll choose to believe Atkins played along with this charade because it at least takes the Dodgers out of Yamamoto.

 

Something like half (if not even more) of the dollars of this deal seem to be deferred so the Dodgers will likely be right in the middle of the bidding for Yamamoto. That got me to thinking that one way Rogers could flex their financial muscle would be to setup deferred payments on the ultra high end free agents as a means of kicking some of the money down the curb into the future.

[Krylian]

I'll choose to believe Atkins played along with this charade because it at least takes the Dodgers out of Yamamoto.

 

He's going to New York

[connorp]

Go all in on the Bo window lmao.

 

Cease, Robert, Benintendi, and Moncada

 

for

 

Tiedemann, Manoah, Orelvis, Leo Jimenez, and some low level prospects.

 

I reject that deal in fantasy before I’m done reading it.

[Laika]

I reject that deal in fantasy before I’m done reading it.

 

Who rejects it?

 

It's a perfectly fair trade.

 

Tendi deal is massively underwater. Moncada has big negative value.

[jaysblue]

Go all in on the Bo window lmao.

 

Cease, Robert, Benintendi, and Moncada

 

for

 

Tiedemann, Manoah, Orelvis, Leo Jimenez, and some low level prospects.

 

So you're okay with this type of trade? Weird.

[connorp]

Who rejects it?

 

It's a perfectly fair trade.

 

Tendi deal is massively underwater. Moncada has big negative value.

 

Robert is a 4 year controllable player w/MVP upside. RT doesn’t start a conversation.

[connorp]

So you're okay with this type of trade? Weird.

 

It would be a dumbass trade for WS. Trade your huge assets for a weak return, so you can shed payroll to buy other FA that aren’t as good as the guys you traded?

[connorp]

Moncada had that one good year and 1/14 may not be out of the realm of some team taking it on.

[jaysblue]

Moncada had that one good year and 1/14 may not be out of the realm of some team taking it on.

 

He has had two really good years. In this weak 3B market, I could see a team taking it on if the asking price isn't much or if the White Sox eat some of it.

[jaysblue]

It would be a dumbass trade for WS. Trade your huge assets for a weak return, so you can shed payroll to buy other FA that aren’t as good as the guys you traded?

 

Yeah I don't see the White Sox trading their two best trade chips for an inferior package in order to shed salary.

[Laika]

So you're okay with this type of trade? Weird.

 

I don't really know

 

It's a trade that would never happen anyway. Just wanted to throw a big ugly out there

[Laika]

Robert is a 4 year controllable player w/MVP upside. RT doesn’t start a conversation.

 

Okay now you get to neg Robert to be objective

 

Gets hurt a lot, strikes out too much, doesn't have MVP or even superstar projections because of that

 

Through some sort of lens he's similar to Varsho, who was obtained for one high end prospect

[jaysblue]

Roberts does come with some downside. His age and club control are what really makes him attractive. I don't view him as a superstar type of player like Ohtani or Soto. There are some flaws in his game. High K rates, and low BB rates and injury concerns. He could either be a 2 WAR guy or 4-5 WAR guy.

[connorp]

Okay now you get to neg Robert to be objective

 

Gets hurt a lot, strikes out too much, doesn't have MVP or even superstar projections because of that

 

Through some sort of lens he's similar to Varsho, who was obtained for one high end prospect

 

Robert was better in Year 1 and 2 than this year. Year 3 power outage was weird.

Definitely major red flags with injury. Unlike a Varsho, he’s proven in both the minors and big that he can hit for average. He’s more valuable than Varsho was, hands down. If he had put it all together, he would be untradable (which the WS claim he is), but as-is, you’d need something more than RT and OM to make it enticing.

 

Next

[Terminator]

Wet blanket brigade is out in full force this morning I see

[mikepelfrey]

I don’t think Ohtani played the jays, if anything they woke up the Dodgers. Roger’s, as they proved with the 5.4 billion contract for the NHL, is a media conglomerate first and foremost. So they fully knew what Ohtani would mean for their brand. Rogers has let Shatkins do stupid things on occasion and limited the Jays payroll in ways we all know about. I’ve complained about it a lot myself, but that’s simply because they don’t really trust Shapiro and Atkins. At least in my opinion.

 

But As far as Ohtani goes, I truly think they wanted him. But in the end they woke up the Bear, (The Dodgers) and that was that. I’m actually surprised the Jays didn’t go higher than they did, because the Marketing factor would have made their brand internationally as well.

 

Right up there with the Dodgers and Yankees. Signing Ohtani was a license to print money

[Eat My Shatkins]

I still wonder about the "leak" to Hoornstra and Dodgers Nation.

 

I think it's possible Ohtani was leaning towards the Jays, the Dodgers knew this and leaked that they were out and Ohtani had picked the Jays. Then amidst the fan/media/twitter s*** storm they went back to Ohtani with their over the top offer and he took it because while he would have been just fine going to Toronto, ultimately it was the Dodgers he really wanted to play for.

 

I mean just about every Tom, Dick and f***ing Harry out there bought into it and had Ohtani becoming a Jay a forgone conslusion after that leak, combined with the goddamn private jet tracking, etc lol

 

It's possible even the Jays FO relaxed a little bit thinking they may have just accomplished landing the biggest FA in baseball history, and were just waiting for Ohtani's reps to reach out, meanwhile the Dodgers were upping their offer to $700 million and hooking the prize.

[Captain_Obvious]

So much nonsense here about "preferred destination" and "Jays being played". Let me state the obvious: Ohtani went to the highest bidder.

 

Captain Obvious to the rescue.

[John_Havok]

I still wonder about the "leak" to Hoornstra and Dodgers Nation.

 

I think it's possible Ohtani was leaning towards the Jays, the Dodgers knew this and leaked that they were out and Ohtani had picked the Jays. Then amidst the fan/media/twitter s*** storm they went back to Ohtani with their over the top offer and he took it because while he would have been just fine going to Toronto, ultimately it was the Dodgers he really wanted to play for.

 

I mean just about every Tom, Dick and f***ing Harry out there bought into it and had Ohtani becoming a Jay a forgone conslusion after that leak, combined with the goddamn private jet tracking, etc lol

 

It's possible even the Jays FO relaxed a little bit thinking they may have just accomplished landing the biggest FA in baseball history.

 

Nah. There was a serious effort to land him, the people reporting signings were more than likely just trying to be “the first guy” to report something and we’re guessing.

 

Whomever it was that suggested Ohtani gave the Dodgers the chance to match any offer …that makes sense. It seems he was always leaning that way but doing his due diligence.

 

The only think that bothers me about the signing is the way the Dodgers are now getting a massive break on the luxury tax. That’s a loophole that shouldn’t exist. The luxury tax penalty should,only be calculated on the 10/700 average, not the deferral stuff. I like the ability to defer salary as an option, it gives lower budget teams a shot at retaining higher end talent rather than losing them or signing upper tier guys (not guys like Ohtani…but star players). Using deferrals to keep actual dollars spent down makes sense. Avoiding luxury tax penalties should not be a factor. The optics and reality of high spending teams deferring money to avoid the luxury tax is pretty low.

[Eat My Shatkins]

So much nonsense here about "preferred destination" and "Jays being played". Let me state the obvious: Ohtani went to the highest bidder.

 

Captain Obvious to the rescue.

 

Yes, but in order to get the Dodgers to bid higher he needs another team in the mix trying to outbid them, which is what the Jays were obviously doing.

 

I think Ohtani preferred the Dodgers, but I also think he was prepared to go to Toronto if they were offering more....to a certain point.

$700 million was enough for him to just accept the offer on stay in LA.

[Captain_Obvious]

Yes, but in order to get the Dodgers to bid higher he needs another team in the mix trying to outbid them, which is what the Jays were obviously doing.

 

I think Ohtani preferred the Dodgers, but I also think he was prepared to go to Toronto if they were offering more....to a certain point.

$700 million was enough for him to just accept the offer on stay in LA.

 

Thank you, Mini-Me.

 

There is no way Toronto was going to go to $700M. We were simply outbid.

[max silver]

Nah. There was a serious effort to land him, the people reporting signings were more than likely just trying to be “the first guy” to report something and we’re guessing.

 

Whomever it was that suggested Ohtani gave the Dodgers the chance to match any offer …that makes sense. It seems he was always leaning that way but doing his due diligence.

 

The only think that bothers me about the signing is the way the Dodgers are now getting a massive break on the luxury tax. That’s a loophole that shouldn’t exist. The luxury tax penalty should,only be calculated on the 10/700 average, not the deferral stuff. I like the ability to defer salary as an option, it gives lower budget teams a shot at retaining higher end talent rather than losing them or signing upper tier guys (not guys like Ohtani…but star players). Using deferrals to keep actual dollars spent down makes sense. Avoiding luxury tax penalties should not be a factor. The optics and reality of high spending teams deferring money to avoid the luxury tax is pretty low.

 

Yeah that's an insane loophole if something approaching 50% of a contract is allowed to be deferred in terms of the luxury tax. I have zero issues with a team being allowed to defer payments to reduce initial cash outlay, but this type of accounting creates a massive advantage for richer teams that allows them to defer future dollars and essentially skirt the luxury tax.