GDT: 1/3 New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays (7:07 et)

[Stangstag]

You are a miserable *******. Everybody was acting like they had a 100% chance of winning. I f***ing totally agree the chances are still good IF Texas and Arizona don't clinch early.

 

But you *******s who thought it was 98% are f***ing insane. It's down to 90% after tonight. Facing Cole tomorrow, and the possibility that Seattle and Houston will play their last 2 or 3 games against a team already clinched. So maybe it's actually 75% now, if you factor everything in.

 

At the very least now it is going to be a stress fest. Why do you care so much about what other people post? If people want to vent, let them vent. Team was genuinely awful and lifeless, with the chance that Romero is injured. And what hope do we have against Cole after tonight's s*** show. This is a team that has never won when it counts, and maybe can't handle pressure.

 

Anybody who experienced 87, knows how quickly things can go to hell. If you think people are being irrational then say so. But jesus, just let people vent if they want to as well. It's a message board and no one is attacking you personally or anything.

 

I don’t think you understand probabilities very well. That’s fine.

 

Just stop talking about your stupid nightmare scenario where the Jays miss the playoffs, EVERY GODDAMN NIGHT.

[Stangstag]

Also you don’t just “vent” you post the same dumb s*** when they win too

[G-Snarls]

This (highly questionable) math is hurting my head

 

I need to stay away for the night

[Masterbather]

Not sure how can you say this. In all of baseball Blue Jays starting pitching ranks:

 

ERA - 1st

WAR - 5th

xFIP - 5th

Strikeouts - 3rd

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

How much more do you want??

 

Outside of Gausman, our other three main starters all have an FIP above 4. This to you doesn't qualify as very good but not great? I never said they sucked.

 

Which would be fine, if we had a very good offense. You see the problem is the offense isn't very good so the pitching has to be outstanding and it's just a notch below.

[Terminator]

Masturbator has been saying we are missing the playoffs every day for the past couple of weeks. And recently we've usually been winning but he still won't change his tune. We lose one game and he acts like he's the smartest guy in the room because he finally got one right lol. To top it off the other board idiots join in and all say I told ya so.

 

You all are DUMN and the playoffs remain easy to make.

 

In fact, even WITH the loss, if the Mariners lose our playoff chances go up. So before you start puffing your chests up too much you've got to see what happens in the other games tonight. And even if the Rangers and Mariners pull it out it still tacks on a loss to the Astros who we own the tiebreaker with.

[G-Snarls]

Waste of a good Gausman start that's for sure

[connorp]

The Phillies clinch before the Jays. Would’ve been flamed for that in March

[Omar]

Masturbator has been saying we are missing the playoffs every day for the past couple of weeks. And recently we've usually been winning but he still won't change his tune. We lose one game and he acts like he's the smartest guy in the room because he finally got one right lol. To top it off the other board idiots join in and all say I told ya so.

 

You all are DUMN and the playoffs remain easy to make.

 

In fact, even WITH the loss, if the Mariners lose our playoff chances go up. So before you start puffing your chests up too much you've got to see what happens in the other games tonight. And even if the Rangers and Mariners pull it out it still tacks on a loss to the Astros who we own the tiebreaker with.

 

They seem oblivious to the fact that we can back into the playoffs just by other teams losing.

[Masterbather]

Masturbator has been saying we are missing the playoffs every day for the past couple of weeks. And recently we've usually been winning but he still won't change his tune. We lose one game and he acts like he's the smartest guy in the room because he finally got one right lol. To top it off the other board idiots join in and all say I told ya so.

 

You all are DUMN and the playoffs remain easy to make.

 

In fact, even WITH the loss, if the Mariners lose our playoff chances go up. So before you start puffing your chests up too much you've got to see what happens in the other games tonight. And even if the Rangers and Mariners pull it out it still tacks on a loss to the Astros who we own the tiebreaker with.

 

I've been saying we're going to miss the playoffs?

When? All I've said is that we're not in, that's all I've said. Somehow that's enough to drive you nuts.

 

See the problem is people don't actually listen to what I'm saying they make assumptions like f***ing idiots.

[Terminator]

They seem oblivious to the fact that we can back into the playoffs just by other teams losing.

 

Yeah they don't factor in the remaining schedules at all. Prior to today we could lose all 6 of our remaining games and we still had a 51% chance of making the playoffs. The AL West just plays each other too many times in the remaining games. Would take a full blown catastrophe on our end as well as the AL West teams splitting things down the middle almost perfectly for us to miss.

 

When we make the playoffs all these negative nancies should be banned for the remainder of the postseason. We don't need their bad vibes haunting the team during the playoffs.

[Olerud363]

I donÂ’t think you understand probabilities very well. ThatÂ’s fine.

 

Just stop talking about your stupid nightmare scenario where the Jays miss the playoffs, EVERY GODDAMN NIGHT.

 

If every game was independent the Blue Jays have apparently have 95% chance of making the playoffs down 3%. If the games are correlated it's less than that. For example if the Jays can't handle pressure, or the bullpen get's over-used or injuries happen, or Texas clinches early, it's less. Maybe 85%.

 

Would you play Russian Roulette with 15% odds of losing? Would you bet 100% of your net worth with 15% chance of losing?

 

So f*** off with the 'don't understand probability s***.

 

It's like when Trump won in 2016 and the Huffington Post had him at 98% of losing. Their math was right actually if results in every state were independent, but the issue was several mid western states were correlated.

 

So just to be clear about what I am saying, I am not saying the Jays are down to 50% odds of making the playoffs... I am saying the the 98% odds (now 95%) are wrong and it's more like 85 because every game isn't independent. If Seattle wins 3 in a row against a drunk Texas team, those games are correlated, if Jays wilt under pressure because the mental high performance team sucks those games are correlated.

 

Now you might ask aren't good things correlated too? Yeah. If the Jays had a 10% chance of making the playoffs it might be actually 15% or 20% because the good things could be correlated.

 

What you will probably see (as you do in policitcs) is if the Jays collapse betting markets will start leading the fangraphs odds as the betters realize what might happen.

[Stangstag]

If every game was independent the Blue Jays have apparently have 95% chance of making the playoffs down 3%. If the games are correlated it's less than that. For example if the Jays can't handle pressure, or the bullpen get's over-used or injuries happen, or Texas clinches early, it's less. Maybe 85%.

 

Would you play Russian Roulette with 15% odds of losing? Would you bet 100% of your net worth with 15% chance of losing?

 

So f*** off with the 'don't understand probability s***.

 

It's like when Trump won in 2016 and the Huffington Post had him at 98% of losing. Their math was right actually if results in every state were independent, but the issue was several mid western states were correlated.

 

So just to be clear about what I am saying, I am not saying the Jays are down to 50% odds of making the playoffs... I am saying the the 98% odds (now 95%) are wrong and it's more like 85 because every game isn't independent. If Seattle wins 3 in a row against a drunk Texas team, those games are correlated, if Jays wilt under pressure because the mental high performance team sucks those games are correlated.

 

Now you might ask aren't good things correlated too? Yeah. If the Jays had a 10% chance of making the playoffs it might be actually 15% or 20% because the good things could be correlated.

 

What you will probably see (as you do in policitcs) is if the Jays collapse betting markets will start leading the fangraphs odds as the betters realize what might happen.

 

You’re just too smart for the rest of us

[hanton]

Does anyone thing Craig Biggio watches his son play or does he have better things to do?

 

I bet he catches most games

[Terminator]

I've been saying we're going to miss the playoffs?

When? All I've said is that we're not in, that's all I've said. Somehow that's enough to drive you nuts.

 

See the problem is people don't actually listen to what I'm saying they make assumptions like f***ing idiots.

 

No dumbass you don't get off that easy.

 

You just said we are going to lose to Cole tomorrow and then "will the team start to feel the pressure?"

 

No mention of the AL West teams playing each other, no mention of the remaining schedules, nothing. Just assuming a loss tomorrow and then implying that the downfall is all but certain.

 

But there is no downfall. We lose tomorrow and so what? We still have at least a 2 game lead with 4 games left. And before you retort with your ******** "ah but they hold the tiebreakers over us so it's really only a 1 game lead" you have to remember that these teams continue to play each other, thus guaranteeing losses for one another.

 

So you can hide behind the fact that you aren't explicitly saying we are going to miss the playoffs, but what you are doing is that you keep implying that it's a real chance that we will miss the playoffs when it's a very remote chance at best.

 

So cut the ******** pal. No one is buying it.

[Terminator]

If every game was independent the Blue Jays have apparently have 95% chance of making the playoffs down 3%. If the games are correlated it's less than that. For example if the Jays can't handle pressure, or the bullpen get's over-used or injuries happen, or Texas clinches early, it's less. Maybe 85%.

 

Would you play Russian Roulette with 15% odds of losing? Would you bet 100% of your net worth with 15% chance of losing?

 

So f*** off with the 'don't understand probability s***.

 

It's like when Trump won in 2016 and the Huffington Post had him at 98% of losing. Their math was right actually if results in every state were independent, but the issue was several mid western states were correlated.

 

So just to be clear about what I am saying, I am not saying the Jays are down to 50% odds of making the playoffs... I am saying the the 98% odds (now 95%) are wrong and it's more like 85 because every game isn't independent. If Seattle wins 3 in a row against a drunk Texas team, those games are correlated, if Jays wilt under pressure because the mental high performance team sucks those games are correlated.

 

Now you might ask aren't good things correlated too? Yeah. If the Jays had a 10% chance of making the playoffs it might be actually 15% or 20% because the good things could be correlated.

 

What you will probably see (as you do in policitcs) is if the Jays collapse betting markets will start leading the fangraphs odds as the betters realize what might happen.

 

^Lol he works the probability down using a bunch of meaningless ******** that he made up and then equates his made up probability with Russian Roulette

[Masterbather]

No dumbass you don't get off that easy.

 

You just said we are going to lose to Cole tomorrow and then "will the team start to feel the pressure?"

 

No mention of the AL West teams playing each other, no mention of the remaining schedules, nothing. Just assuming a loss tomorrow and then implying that the downfall is all but certain.

 

But there is no downfall. We lose tomorrow and so what? We still have at least a 2 game lead with 4 games left. And before you retort with your ******** "ah but they hold the tiebreakers over us so it's really only a 1 game lead" you have to remember that these teams continue to play each other, thus guaranteeing losses for one another.

 

So you can hide behind the fact that you aren't explicitly saying we are going to miss the playoffs, but what you are doing is that you keep implying that it's a real chance that we will miss the playoffs when it's a very remote chance at best.

 

So cut the ******** pal. No one is buying it.

 

So at no point have you provided evidence that I said we were going to miss the playoffs because I never said that.

 

I do think we're going to lose to Cole tomorrow, because we often do, and then I asked a very open-ended question: will the Blue Jays start to feel the pressure? It's a good question, will they?

 

That's still not equivalent to me saying they're going to miss the playoffs.

 

I'm well aware of the schedules. I understand fully that the Blue Jays can back in even if they suck for the rest of the regular season. Then again they might not.

 

The fact of the matter is I never said we're not making the playoffs. And I haven't been saying that for weeks. You made all that up, then you try to argue your way out of it.

 

All I've ever said is that we're not in, and they're still a way that s*** can go wrong. There still is. Everything I've said is still factual.

 

So stop making up lies about other people.

[Omar]

If every game was independent the Blue Jays have apparently have 95% chance of making the playoffs down 3%. If the games are correlated it's less than that. For example if the Jays can't handle pressure, or the bullpen get's over-used or injuries happen, or Texas clinches early, it's less. Maybe 85%.

 

Would you play Russian Roulette with 15% odds of losing? Would you bet 100% of your net worth with 15% chance of losing?

 

So f*** off with the 'don't understand probability s***.

 

It's like when Trump won in 2016 and the Huffington Post had him at 98% of losing. Their math was right actually if results in every state were independent, but the issue was several mid western states were correlated.

 

So just to be clear about what I am saying, I am not saying the Jays are down to 50% odds of making the playoffs... I am saying the the 98% odds (now 95%) are wrong and it's more like 85 because every game isn't independent. If Seattle wins 3 in a row against a drunk Texas team, those games are correlated, if Jays wilt under pressure because the mental high performance team sucks those games are correlated.

 

Now you might ask aren't good things correlated too? Yeah. If the Jays had a 10% chance of making the playoffs it might be actually 15% or 20% because the good things could be correlated.

 

What you will probably see (as you do in policitcs) is if the Jays collapse betting markets will start leading the fangraphs odds as the betters realize what might happen.

 

You realize that you're giving Dick Pole more ammunition?

[Terminator]

So at no point have you provided evidence that I said we were going to miss the playoffs because I never said that.

 

I do think we're going to lose to Cole tomorrow, because we often do, and then I asked a very open-ended question: will the Blue Jays start to feel the pressure? It's a good question, will they?

 

That's still not equivalent to me saying they're going to miss the playoffs.

 

I'm well aware of the schedules. I understand fully that the Blue Jays can back in even if they suck for the rest of the regular season. Then again they might not.

 

The fact of the matter is I never said we're not making the playoffs. And I haven't been saying that for weeks. You made all that up, then you try to argue your way out of it.

 

All I've ever said is that we're not in, and they're still a way that s*** can go wrong. There still is. Everything I've said is still factual.

 

So stop making up lies about other people.

 

This is exactly my point. Why is it a good question? The Jays will have at minimum a 2 game lead with 4 games to go and the other teams will be playing each other from there on out which further limits the chances for all 3 teams to jump us. We will still have a 95% chance to make the playoffs.

 

It's only a good question in your mind because you can keep implying that missing the playoffs is a real possibility. But when someone points out that you are taking a 5% chance and making it sound like it's got a significant chance of happening then you resort to "quit telling lies." lol

[Masterbather]

This is exactly my point. Why is it a good question? The Jays will have at minimum a 2 game lead with 4 games to go and the other teams will be playing each other from there on out which further limits the chances for all 3 teams to jump us. We will still have a 95% chance to make the playoffs.

 

It's only a good question in your mind because you can keep implying that missing the playoffs is a real possibility. But when someone points out that you are taking a 5% chance and making it sound like it's got a significant chance of happening then you resort to "quit telling lies." lol

 

Missing the playoffs is still possible. It's not likely but it's still possible. I wouldn't bet my money on us missing, but it's still possible. I fully acknowledge that I'm saying it's still possible. That's not the same as saying we're missing the playoffs. For you to explicitly say that I said that is a lie.

 

I watched the 1987 collapse, you would have probably said it was an impossibility back then. Seven losses in a row, out of nowhere. Just like that, one terrible week of baseball is all it took.

 

Weird things can happen in the short term, extreme things can happen in the short term, the fewer the games left where we aren't in, the more possible it is that we miss. That's still not the same as saying we're missing the playoffs.

[Terminator]

Missing the playoffs is still possible. It's not likely but it's still possible. I wouldn't bet my money on us missing, but it's still possible. I fully acknowledge that I'm saying it's still possible. That's not the same as saying we're missing the playoffs. For you to explicitly say that I said that is a lie.

 

I watched the 1987 collapse, you would have probably said it was an impossibility back then. Seven losses in a row, out of nowhere. Just like that, one terrible week of baseball is all it took.

 

Weird things can happen in the short term, extreme things can happen in the short term, the fewer the games left where we aren't in, the more possible it is that we miss. That's still not the same as saying we're missing the playoffs.

 

"It's possible that I win the lottery. If you tell me that I won't win it is a lie."

[BatFlip]

This is exactly my point. Why is it a good question? The Jays will have at minimum a 2 game lead with 4 games to go and the other teams will be playing each other from there on out which further limits the chances for all 3 teams to jump us. We will still have a 95% chance to make the playoffs.

 

It's only a good question in your mind because you can keep implying that missing the playoffs is a real possibility. But when someone points out that you are taking a 5% chance and making it sound like it's got a significant chance of happening then you resort to "quit telling lies." lol

 

 

Masterbather is emotionally protecting himself by repeatedly talking about how the team isn't good enough, how we may not make the playoffs, etc. That way, in the slim chance they don't make it (plausible but not probable), he can still feel good by saying "I told you so", but if the Jays do make it and go on a run, he can partake in festivities while talking about what a fluke it was.

 

Having lurked on this board for quite some time, I would say Masterbather is on one of the more annoying poster runs I've seen in quite some time - he's on tilt. Yes, things may not go the Jays way, but that's baseball. Newsflash - all these recent games have been high pressure. Yes, the Jays might not be good enough to make noise this year, but part of the fun of being a fan is recognizing there's still a chance and cheering for the good guys. It's not saying with certainty that every team in the playoffs has more talent than the Jays - it's my opinion that the Jays are actually underperforming this year based on their underlying true talent level.

 

The one thing that I agree with Olerud on is that any team that makes the playoffs can go on a serendipitous run. Let's just get in and let the chips fall where they may!

[Masterbather]

"It's possible that I win the lottery. If you tell me that I won't win it is a lie."

 

The odds between winning the lottery and what I'm suggesting are so far away from one another the whole statement is ridiculous on its face.

 

I had a feeling you would try the lottery analogy at some point, I was hoping you weren't that stupid but I gave you too much credit.

[Masterbather]

Masterbather is emotionally protecting himself by repeatedly talking about how the team isn't good enough, how we may not make the playoffs, etc. That way, in the slim chance they don't make it (plausible but not probable), he can still feel good by saying "I told you so", but if the Jays do make it and go on a run, he can partake in festivities while talking about what a fluke it was.

 

Having lurked on this board for quite some time, I would say Masterbather is on one of the more annoying poster runs I've seen in quite some time - he's on tilt. Yes, things may not go the Jays way, but that's baseball. Newsflash - all these recent games have been high pressure. Yes, the Jays might not be good enough to make noise this year, but part of the fun of being a fan is recognizing there's still a chance and cheering for the good guys. It's not saying with certainty that every team in the playoffs has more talent than the Jays - it's my opinion that the Jays are actually underperforming this year based on their underlying true talent level.

 

The one thing that I agree with Olerud on is that any team that makes the playoffs can go on a serendipitous run. Let's just get in and let the chips fall where they may!

 

I'm protecting myself? My god the stupid things people come up with on this board. All this frustration from somebody having the audacity to say we're not in yet. We're not in yet. Crazier things have happened. That's literally all I'm saying. Now I have to deal with this stupidity of protecting myself from what exactly? I don't work for this team, my job's not on the line? It's not like I predicted this team would miss the playoffs at the beginning of the season. What exactly am I protecting myself from?

[Terminator]

We've got long time lurkers signing up just to tell you how stupid you are congrats

[Omar]

Missing the playoffs is still possible. It's not likely but it's still possible. I wouldn't bet my money on us missing, but it's still possible. I fully acknowledge that I'm saying it's still possible. That's not the same as saying we're missing the playoffs. For you to explicitly say that I said that is a lie.

 

I watched the 1987 collapse, you would have probably said it was an impossibility back then. Seven losses in a row, out of nowhere. Just like that, one terrible week of baseball is all it took.

 

Weird things can happen in the short term, extreme things can happen in the short term, the fewer the games left where we aren't in, the more possible it is that we miss. That's still not the same as saying we're missing the playoffs.

 

The 87 Jays are a bad example and actually weaken your argument. Back then only one team made it through and we had to play that one team to end the season. Neither the Rangers, Stros or Mariners play us again making it impossible for them to run the table against us like Detroit did back then. On top of that they play each other! This is nothing like the 87 scenario.

[Terminator]

The odds between winning the lottery and what I'm suggesting are so far away from one another the whole statement is ridiculous on its face.

 

I had a feeling you would try the lottery analogy at some point, I was hoping you weren't that stupid but I gave you too much credit.

 

See, you are suggesting it and we all know it. But when we call you out on it then you say we are lying.

 

As for the lottery, it's a simple analogy using a statistically improbable event to help illustrate that you asking questions like "will they feel the pressure?" is the wrong way to think about the remaining 5 games of the year. I didn't know how to dumb it down any further for you but apparently even this flies over your head.

[BatFlip]

I'm protecting myself? My god the stupid things people come up with on this board. All this frustration from somebody having the audacity to say we're not in yet. We're not in yet. Crazier things have happened. That's literally all I'm saying. Now I have to deal with this stupidity of protecting myself from what exactly? I don't work for this team, my job's not on the line? It's not like I predicted this team would miss the playoffs at the beginning of the season. What exactly am I protecting myself from?

 

Protecting yourself from the disappointment of a monumental collapse. Which is possible... but not probable. Your posts have become more and more tinged with negativity. If you're going to s*** on the offense, have at it, but the players on this team do have track records to suggest they have more in them. But now saying our pitching isn't good enough? Come on man.

 

G-Snarls hit it on the head:

 

ERA - 1st

WAR - 5th

xFIP - 5th

Strikeouts - 3rd

 

We're all in this together, but you're making this charge for the playoffs a whole lot less fun for everyone when you're on full tilt.

[Masterbather]

The 87 Jays are a bad example and actually weaken your argument. Back then only one team made it through and we had to play that one team to end the season. Neither the Rangers, Stros or Mariners play us again making it impossible for them to run the table against us like Detroit did back then. On top of that they play each other! This is nothing like the 87 scenario.

 

It doesn't have to be the team that's chasing us, it just has to be the teams that we're playing. If we were to go 0 and 5, which I'm not saying we will, apparently I need to make this very clear so people don't put words in my mouth, but if we happened to, depending on the results of the Mariners and Astros, It's certainly possible for us to miss right? Could happen. I'm not saying it will I'm just saying pump the brakes on this guaranteed stuff. The reason there's still so much interest in these regular season games is precisely because we're still playing for something: getting in.

[Masterbather]

Protecting yourself from the disappointment of a monumental collapse. Which is possible... but not probable. Your posts have become more and more tinged with negativity. If you're going to s*** on the offense, have at it, but the players on this team do have track records to suggest they have more in them. But now saying our pitching isn't good enough? Come on man.

 

G-Snarls hit it on the head:

 

ERA - 1st

WAR - 5th

xFIP - 5th

Strikeouts - 3rd

 

We're all in this together, but you're making this charge for the playoffs a whole lot less fun for everyone when you're on full tilt.

 

Okay I'm going to try to be really nice here. I don't protect myself from disappointment, I've been watching sports for a long time dude, I'm not one of those guys who bets against my team so that I'm happy either way. I'm not one of those idiots, you're trying to peg me a certain way and you don't know me and you're wrong.

 

I've made my point about the pitching relative to the offense. If you want to discuss this point I'm happy to have a civilized discussion with you, I'm only uncivilized to people if they come after me first. If the opinions of a message board make this less fun for you, that probably says something about your state of mind.

 

I'm actually really enjoying this playoff drive, I'd much rather be in a playoff drive with a chance to make the playoffs than not, obviously. But I'm honest about my opinion, I'm honest about what I think of my team, I'm honest about the fact that we're not in the playoffs yet and I'll celebrate when we get there. Okay, friend!

[Governator]

A lot of crying over a tight pitching dual that we knew going in to the game. On the bright side, we are one step closer to getting the golden ticket, the 3rd place wild card spot