General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[BTS]

And how does the franchise look going into 2025?

 

Last in ALE again is a good bet. Finishing bottom 5 in MLB is a reasonably good proposition.

 

And the farm sucks.

 

I think this reality is going to set in if/when the team doesn't add multiple 4+ war players in the offseason

[Olerud363]

Except in this case, we don’t actually know how “well” the company did. You’re talking about money/revenue, which isn’t the same as the success of the team itself.

 

For example, a box office success is not an indication of a GOOD movie, and a GOOD film being a box office loss doesn’t make share-holders very happy.

 

On-field results and corporate/shareholder results are 2 different things.

 

But the issues facing land developers are common between all of them. The bottom 25% will still probably have their jobs at risk. This is like saying the MLB got hit with a global pandemic just a few years ago, so nobodies job should be at risk. The bottom 25% should always have their jobs at risk no matter what the environment.

 

The issue with this management group is whether or not they are really SOTA (state-of-the-art) or phonies. I've worked in biotech for 20+ years, and believe me you can make a nice living being a phony, and no one will ever know unless you get too big or have a catastrophic failure (ie Elizabeth Holmes Theranos). So Shapiro honestly gives off this vibe that he's a corporate phony. It may not be true, but others have said something like 'Shapiro and Atkins aren't real nerds'.

 

So I guess the question is are Shapiro and Atkins really technically compentent in 2024 state-of-the-art baseball science? And it is a science now. Can rogers board recognize if they are? Can Blue Jays message board recognize if they are? No to the former, Yes to the latter.

[Brownie19]

And how does the franchise look going into 2025?

 

Last in ALE again is a good bet. Finishing bottom 5 in MLB is a reasonably good proposition.

 

And the farm sucks.

 

I think this just a misunderstanding of what you mean by "franchise". I think you're using it to represent the entire organization and are just saying that in addition to the team, the farm system blows. Which is true. I think most of us think of franchise rating represents a more historic and long term view of the team. I think we'll suck next year and for the foreseeable future - probably until 2028 or 2029. All teams go thru cycles - we're just on the tail end of one. IMO, that doesn't mean we're a s*** franchise that is one of the worst in baseball. As an example, KC won 56 games in 2023. They've had 1 season over .500 in the past 8 years, including 4 with 65 wins or less. Their 2nd best season in the past 8 years was 74 wins - the same as the Jays this year. Are they now a "good" franchise because they have Bobby Witt and Cole Ragans and are coming off 86 win season? Are we going to suggest they're a better franchise than the Jays? f*** that s***. They've been f***ing GARBAGE since I was old enough to follow baseball. 9 season over .500 in the past 35 years. I also don't look at the St. Louis Cardinals and think they're a s*** franchise now because they've had a few down years in a row (and may be falling behind the times a bit). That franchise has been incredible over the past 30 years.

 

I think some are just defining what they mean differently. It's gonna happen on a message board.

[Laika]

The long term (5-6 year) outlook for any MLB team can turn around quickly, especially if that team develops some elite controllable talent, BUT consider the following...

 

In 2017 when the Blue Jays sucked, Vlad and Bo were dominating in A ball and A+ ball. They were so f***ing good that they were both top 20 consensus MLB prospects. And as position players, possible franchise players, a couple of years away you could already dream on the next window of contention. And that window of contention came to fruition (Ross blew it of course).

 

In 2024, the Blue Jays sucked and there is NOBODY COMING MAN THERE IS f***ING NOBODY ON THE WAY

 

This team is Fukudome'd for a while.

 

Pray for a 2025 WC berth because that could be the only fun for half a decade.

 

Like, the only way out of this is if the new Vlad-Bo are already in the system. Arjun Nimmala 5 WAR SS in two years? Trey Yesavage an Ace from day 1?

[Jimcanuck]

I think this just a misunderstanding of what you mean by "franchise". I think you're using it to represent the entire organization and are just saying that in addition to the team, the farm system blows. Which is true. I think most of us think of franchise rating represents a more historic and long term view of the team. I think we'll suck next year and for the foreseeable future - probably until 2028 or 2029. All teams go thru cycles - we're just on the tail end of one. IMO, that doesn't mean we're a s*** franchise that is one of the worst in baseball. As an example, KC won 56 games in 2023. They've had 1 season over .500 in the past 8 years, including 4 with 65 wins or less. Their 2nd best season in the past 8 years was 74 wins - the same as the Jays this year. Are they now a "good" franchise because they have Bobby Witt and Cole Ragans and are coming off 86 win season? Are we going to suggest they're a better franchise than the Jays? f*** that s***. They've been f***ing GARBAGE since I was old enough to follow baseball. 9 season over .500 in the past 35 years. I also don't look at the St. Louis Cardinals and think they're a s*** franchise now because they've had a few down years in a row (and may be falling behind the times a bit). That franchise has been incredible over the past 30 years.

 

I think some are just defining what they mean differently. It's gonna happen on a message board.

 

Thought I was clear enough by referring to the state of the franchise. Meaning a snapshot in time.

 

The state of the Bleu Jays franchise is bad. Bottom 5 bad.

 

I am pulling my support for Shatkins. They've done enough damage.

[BigCecil]

Jays had the highest % of revenue committed to payroll in 2024 (74%)

 

2nd highest to the Mets in all of baseball (87%)

 

Jays are owned by a $29B market cap pubco, and Mets are owned by a crazy rich owner who can do whatever he wants.

 

Rogers is going to spend in '25. No choice given all the investments they have made. But there are real limits. Its just business.

[Laika]

Jays had the highest % of revenue committed to payroll in 2024 (74%)

 

2nd highest to the Mets in all of baseball (87%)

 

Jays are owned by a $29B market cap pubco, and Mets are owned by a crazy rich owner who can do whatever he wants.

 

Rogers is going to spend in '25. No choice given all the investments they have made. But there are real limits. Its just business.

 

The Blue Jays fudge their revenue numbers intentionally though

 

Like, sell the TV rights to themselves (Rogers) for way below market rate

[BatFlip]

The Blue Jays fudge their revenue numbers intentionally though

 

Like, sell the TV rights to themselves (Rogers) for way below market rate

 

 

Exactly. As far as I can recall, I believe the Jays have the largest TV viewership in MLB (even higher than the Yankees), but somehow receive one of the lowest amounts in baseball for their broadcast rights. Makes sense, right Rogers? Good ol' fashioned third party transaction!

 

In any event, the Jays are on far stronger financial footing than most realize. It's really just whether uncle Edward Rogers wants to bank more or spend more.

[glory]

The long term (5-6 year) outlook for any MLB team can turn around quickly, especially if that team develops some elite controllable talent, BUT consider the following...

 

In 2017 when the Blue Jays sucked, Vlad and Bo were dominating in A ball and A+ ball. They were so f***ing good that they were both top 20 consensus MLB prospects. And as position players, possible franchise players, a couple of years away you could already dream on the next window of contention. And that window of contention came to fruition (Ross blew it of course).

 

In 2024, the Blue Jays sucked and there is NOBODY COMING MAN THERE IS f***ING NOBODY ON THE WAY

 

This team is Fukudome'd for a while.

 

Pray for a 2025 WC berth because that could be the only fun for half a decade.

 

Like, the only way out of this is if the new Vlad-Bo are already in the system. Arjun Nimmala 5 WAR SS in two years? Trey Yesavage an Ace from day 1?

 

Yeah, Atkins essentially messed up every step of the way from 2017-19 (every trade/MLB signing he made during that span aside from Teoscar was dog s***), but still had Vlad/Bo, so that combined with increasing payroll was able to create the 2021-23 window. We can still dream on the payroll part, Rogers has been pretty good there, but the lack of talent in the minors is making it hard to see when the light at the end of the tunnel might actually be visible. The margin for error during the transition years this time around won't be the same as last time.

[AMS528]

I was just curious and didn't expect you to memorize it.

 

My point was that if 14 teams only had 1 and the Jays had 0, then I'd suggest that's irrelevant. If there was only 2 teams with 1 and there were 14 teams with 5+, then that's obviously a different story. I just read an article from 2019 that says of the 1200 players drafted each year, less than 10% of them will ever accumulate 0.1 WAR in their career. That number looks worse because there are simply too many players drafted every year, but it's still really small. The # of players drafted who accumulate even 10 career WAR must be <3% - possibly less? Teams average 1 person per draft who has even 10 career WAR - which is considered what, an "OK MLB career"? That's someone who might be a "starter" for 2 seasons at their peak? It's not uncommon for teams to land 0 for a few years in a row, then land 3 in the next draft. That's unfortunately how random it can be. There are drafts that only produced 1 quality MLB player in the entire 1st round.

 

The reality is teams ALL generally suck at scouting, drafting and developing. It's a f***ton of throwing s*** against the wall and hoping it sticks isn't it? Some are just slightly better than others.

 

Well you made the point, so I decided to go and do the research.

 

The Cubs (2), Rays (3), Guardians (4), Marlins (4), Phillies (1), Red Sox (3), Royals (3) is the list of teams with less than 5 guys making debuts (I went with debuted for any team for this cause I wasn't about to look at each players page for where they debuted).

 

So I missed the Phillies the first time around as team with just one overall debut, but at least it was a decent player. But either way that's 22 teams that had 5 players or more in many cases make debuts in the majors. Of the other teams, 2 debuted 4, 3, did 3, Cubs had 2.

 

And then you have the Jays and Philly with 1 each. And the Jays 1 did not debut with the Jays and he also sucks.

 

In your own words if there are 2 teams with 1 and 14 teams with 5+ that's obviously a different story. Well there's 22 so evidently it's obviously even more of a story than that, and I think I've given you enough that you can slide a bit more over to my position of this example being fairly damning.

Edited October 16, 2024 by AMS528

[Olerud363]

The long term (5-6 year) outlook for any MLB team can turn around quickly, especially if that team develops some elite controllable talent, BUT consider the following...

 

In 2017 when the Blue Jays sucked, Vlad and Bo were dominating in A ball and A+ ball. They were so f***ing good that they were both top 20 consensus MLB prospects. And as position players, possible franchise players, a couple of years away you could already dream on the next window of contention. And that window of contention came to fruition (Ross blew it of course).

 

In 2024, the Blue Jays sucked and there is NOBODY COMING MAN THERE IS f***ING NOBODY ON THE WAY

 

This team is Fukudome'd for a while.

 

Pray for a 2025 WC berth because that could be the only fun for half a decade.

 

Like, the only way out of this is if the new Vlad-Bo are already in the system. Arjun Nimmala 5 WAR SS in two years? Trey Yesavage an Ace from day 1?

 

No matter what you think of Nimmala there is no way that he is 1.5 years away, which is what Bo and Vlad were this time in 2017.

 

This is why I was so over-the-top about Nimmala/Bonilla ... going into the season there was a lot of hope that they'd come quickly. Within a month that hope was gone and they were just another set of high k prospects that have a shot (at least Nimmala does) but probably aren't coming quick. The k-rates of Nimmala/Bonilla changed the outlook of the franchise.

[Terminator]

The long term (5-6 year) outlook for any MLB team can turn around quickly, especially if that team develops some elite controllable talent, BUT consider the following...

 

In 2017 when the Blue Jays sucked, Vlad and Bo were dominating in A ball and A+ ball. They were so f***ing good that they were both top 20 consensus MLB prospects. And as position players, possible franchise players, a couple of years away you could already dream on the next window of contention. And that window of contention came to fruition (Ross blew it of course).

 

In 2024, the Blue Jays sucked and there is NOBODY COMING MAN THERE IS f***ING NOBODY ON THE WAY

 

This team is Fukudome'd for a while.

 

Pray for a 2025 WC berth because that could be the only fun for half a decade.

 

Like, the only way out of this is if the new Vlad-Bo are already in the system. Arjun Nimmala 5 WAR SS in two years? Trey Yesavage an Ace from day 1?

 

All the changes they are making this year should have been done last year. Maybe those changes work and that changes our long term outlook. But even if they work, implementing them a year sooner would have helped.

 

But beyond that, the team is in dangerous territory because it will need to spend big to keep competing. The team has done a good job to avoid albatross contracts so far but if we sign Vlad to 300+ mil and a number of pricey FAs, which is what it will take to compete, then we are going to hit some landmines.

 

And that's when things will get REALLY dire. No farm system and garbage contracts eating up payroll = a long full-scale rebuild.

[Brownie19]

Is it fair to suggest we should be selling both Vlad, Bo, Gausman, etc. now? Fire Atkins and start the rebuild. One last hail mary to add a bunch of free agents this offseason for one more shot at a WC birth seems like a lot probability move that just isn't worth the pain of losing them for nothing, while likely hitting a landmine or two. Vlad finally has a ton of value again...what is the probability he's really a 165 wRC+ hitter who's worth a long term, $350M+ deal? Maybe 35%? Rogers should save their money, signing short term vets you can sell at the deadline for prospect and then be prepared to spend it when the contention window re-opens in 2029-2030.

[John_Havok]

Is it fair to suggest we should be selling both Vlad, Bo, Gausman, etc. now? Fire Atkins and start the rebuild. One last hail mary to add a bunch of free agents this offseason for one more shot at a WC birth seems like a lot probability move that just isn't worth the pain of losing them for nothing, while likely hitting a landmine or two. Vlad finally has a ton of value again...what is the probability he's really a 165 wRC+ hitter who's worth a long term, $350M+ deal? Maybe 35%? Rogers should save their money, signing short term vets you can sell at the deadline for prospect and then be prepared to spend it when the contention window re-opens in 2029-2030.

 

It's certainly an option as a thought exercise but it's very clearly not happening so it wouldn't really accomplish much.

 

All it would really do is revisionist people more ammo to say the "see. I said we should have got rid of everyone last year and..." blah blah blah.

 

Even talking trades, there's no real sustance any of us could project on what a potential return would like from any team, just a bunch of "Vlad should get an on field star above average regular, plus their top prospect, plus...etc etc.." and then when that didn't happen...just another bitch fest like they somehow had their fingers on the pulse of every GM in baseball and their willingness to gut their team to trade for 1 year of Vlad.

 

So yeah. Sounds good!

[glory]

Rogers is allowing a lame duck team president (and since they are an extension of each other, a lame duck GM as well) to handle the 2025 roster. Those two have absolutely zero reason to care about payroll flexibility, maximizing assets, or farm system for 2026-beyond. Their only priority is going to be to add as many wins in 2025 as they can within their assigned payroll. Front offices with their backs against the wall may not operate in good faith or with any sort of long term vision. There's potential for things to get pretty ugly depending on what type of contracts or trades (or both) that are made this winter. If they give Alex Bregman a 7 or 8 year deal, and get a 4.8 WAR in 2025 out of it, then are they going to care what the contract looks like in 2026-32? They may not even be around to have to deal with it, and if they are, then it means the signing worked and they'd likely have gotten extensions out of it. There's going to be at least one big/bad contract handed out this winter. If it's for Soto, then great, but it won't be, so just have to hope it gives the team a short term boost (and a memorable one ala 2015-16) and/or hope whoever the FA is ages like Adrian Beltre.

[Terminator]

Is it fair to suggest we should be selling both Vlad, Bo, Gausman, etc. now? Fire Atkins and start the rebuild. One last hail mary to add a bunch of free agents this offseason for one more shot at a WC birth seems like a lot probability move that just isn't worth the pain of losing them for nothing, while likely hitting a landmine or two. Vlad finally has a ton of value again...what is the probability he's really a 165 wRC+ hitter who's worth a long term, $350M+ deal? Maybe 35%? Rogers should save their money, signing short term vets you can sell at the deadline for prospect and then be prepared to spend it when the contention window re-opens in 2029-2030.

 

Rebuilds aren't guaranteed to succeed. I'm still butthurt over the Halladay trade nearly 20 years later.

 

It might not be the prudent choice but I don't really have a problem with them trying to win in 2025. With a high payroll and the new playoff format they should be able to compete for a WC spot most years. It's not like trading 1 year of control of Bo and Vlad or an old Gausman is going to fix this franchise anyway.

 

But in their attempt to compete I hope they stick to 1-4 year deals in FA. If they sign Vlad to a 12 year extension and then Adames or Bregman to 7 or 8 year deals then we are starting to tread in some dangerous waters. But a 3 or 4 year deal blowing up in the final year or two isn't really that harmful.

[BTS]

Rogers is allowing a lame duck team president (and since they are an extension of each other, a lame duck GM as well) to handle the 2025 roster. Those two have absolutely zero reason to care about payroll flexibility, maximizing assets, or farm system for 2026-beyond. Their only priority is going to be to add as many wins in 2025 as they can within their assigned payroll. Front offices with their backs against the wall may not operate in good faith or with any sort of long term vision. There's potential for things to get pretty ugly depending on what type of contracts or trades (or both) that are made this winter. If they give Alex Bregman a 7 or 8 year deal, and get a 4.8 WAR in 2025 out of it, then are they going to care what the contract looks like in 2026-32? They may not even be around to have to deal with it, and if they are, then it means the signing worked and they'd likely have gotten extensions out of it. There's going to be at least one big/bad contract handed out this winter. If it's for Soto, then great, but it won't be, so just have to hope it gives the team a short term boost (and a memorable one ala 2015-16) and/or hope whoever the FA is ages like Adrian Beltre.

 

Yup. The current situation is absurd:

 

- the team coming off a 74-win season

- possibly the worst farm system in the league

- right up against the luxury tax

- their two best players a year from free agency

- zero controllable star players

- President and GM have contracts expiring in a year

 

And the team is pretending that they're going to contend in 2025. Nobody in baseball ops is incentivized to care about anything beyond 2025, and yet the team is a long shot to compete next year. We're all just waiting on the regime change that will be announced a year from now.

 

The good news is that they can't gut the non-existant farm, and they can't commit to a bunch of albatross contracts if they only have 40M or so to add to the 2025 payroll.

[Laika]

The worst case Ontario might be a 7+ year Adames or Bregman contract like looks bad from day 1.

 

One of those on the books isn't going to ruin the franchise.

 

There is really nobody else on the market who could reasonably be the benefactor of a sandbag deal. Of course Soto could (or will, eventually be a sandbag deal) but that would be an extreme sudden decline in talent for it to happen any time soon. Burnes could sign a $200M contract then blow his elbow up but I don't think Toronto will be pursuing him anyway.

 

Everyone else will just get mid-term deals. 2 year deals for Profar and Walker, maybe 3 for Kikuchi, Teoscar/Santander/O'Neill might be able to get 4... and the AAV might be low enough on some of those that it doesn't even matter if the player pulls a Nick Catellanos and is s***** the entire time.

[Jimcanuck]

If there is anyone in charge at Rogers that can make a reasonable assessment of the team, there should be direction that only 1 year FA contracts can be signed. Contracts that can easily be moved at the deadline.

 

When the team clearly sucks by mid-June, fire Shatkins and hire the best of BJMB to make the trades and start the rebuild.

[xposbrad]

Yup. The current situation is absurd:

 

- the team coming off a 74-win season

- possibly the worst farm system in the league

- right up against the luxury tax

- their two best players a year from free agency

- zero controllable star players

- President and GM have contracts expiring in a year

 

And the team is pretending that they're going to contend in 2025. Nobody in baseball ops is incentivized to care about anything beyond 2025, and yet the team is a long shot to compete next year. We're all just waiting on the regime change that will be announced a year from now.

 

The good news is that they can't gut the non-existant farm, and they can't commit to a bunch of albatross contracts if they only have 40M or so to add to the 2025 payroll.

 

Bang on! I read these threads and people are trying to find fillers as if this team is competing next year LOL. Ya let's sign Bregman and Soto so the team can get to .500 with still a ton of holes AND have a 300m payroll LOL. Listen, this team will be mediocre for a LONG TIME unless that payroll hits the 320m+ range, so they can add 2 bats and a top/mid starter + 1-2 BP arms. Right now it's a perfect s*** storm, since Vlad isn't even signed and is going to for sure MAX his value with a 0 team friendly deal and they have such a bad farm. Since we know the Jays can't add 100m to the payroll, the team needs to sell. Or we can do a wash/rinse/repeat next year, because the writing is and has been on the wall, just delaying the inevitable at this point.

[glory]

Yup. The current situation is absurd:

 

- the team coming off a 74-win season

- possibly the worst farm system in the league

- right up against the luxury tax

- their two best players a year from free agency

- zero controllable star players

- President and GM have contracts expiring in a year

 

And the team is pretending that they're going to contend in 2025. Nobody in baseball ops is incentivized to care about anything beyond 2025, and yet the team is a long shot to compete next year. We're all just waiting on the regime change that will be announced a year from now.

 

The good news is that they can't gut the non-existant farm, and they can't commit to a bunch of albatross contracts if they only have 40M or so to add to the 2025 payroll.

 

Honestly the best thing they could do is probably try to take advantage of teams shedding payroll due to the Bally/Diamond bankruptcy and try to get talent that way. Other than Nimmala and Yesavage, there isn't a prospect they could move that anyone would be upset to lose, so really it could be open season on the farm and I don't think it would make much difference short or long term. Rooker is an obvious one due to the A's trading everybody, but I'm sure there are other teams that will be looking to move some arb eligible players who cost real money. Luis Robert who is coming off an awful year and is no longer cheap (15-20-20 left with the last 2 years being team options) so maybe you can get him at a discounted rate. Stuff like that. Otherwise it is hard to see an avenue to add enough talent on only $40-50m. They gave that much to IKF/KK/Turner/Green/Vogelbach last winter, and that was when the market was dead. If the market is more lively this time around then being able to spread that amount of money around with the amount of holes they have to fix will be impossible.

[L54]

Yup. The current situation is absurd:

 

- the team coming off a 74-win season

- possibly the worst farm system in the league

- right up against the luxury tax

- their two best players a year from free agency

- zero controllable star players

- President and GM have contracts expiring in a year

 

And the team is pretending that they're going to contend in 2025. Nobody in baseball ops is incentivized to care about anything beyond 2025, and yet the team is a long shot to compete next year. We're all just waiting on the regime change that will be announced a year from now.

 

The good news is that they can't gut the non-existant farm, and they can't commit to a bunch of albatross contracts if they only have 40M or so to add to the 2025 payroll.

 

The sustainable winner blueprint

[The_DH]

If there is anyone in charge at Rogers that can make a reasonable assessment of the team, there should be direction that only 1 year FA contracts can be signed. Contracts that can easily be moved at the deadline.

 

When the team clearly sucks by mid-June, fire Shatkins and hire the best of BJMB to make the trades and start the rebuild.

 

Keep in mind how Rogers assesses this team. How are ratings, how are commercial sales doing? They can assess those things and I'm sure they do.

[Stangstag]

Rogers is allowing a lame duck team president (and since they are an extension of each other, a lame duck GM as well) to handle the 2025 roster. Those two have absolutely zero reason to care about payroll flexibility, maximizing assets, or farm system for 2026-beyond. Their only priority is going to be to add as many wins in 2025 as they can within their assigned payroll. Front offices with their backs against the wall may not operate in good faith or with any sort of long term vision. There's potential for things to get pretty ugly depending on what type of contracts or trades (or both) that are made this winter. If they give Alex Bregman a 7 or 8 year deal, and get a 4.8 WAR in 2025 out of it, then are they going to care what the contract looks like in 2026-32? They may not even be around to have to deal with it, and if they are, then it means the signing worked and they'd likely have gotten extensions out of it. There's going to be at least one big/bad contract handed out this winter. If it's for Soto, then great, but it won't be, so just have to hope it gives the team a short term boost (and a memorable one ala 2015-16) and/or hope whoever the FA is ages like Adrian Beltre.

 

Isn’t this exactly how AA operated in 2015??? Worked fairly well.

 

Bring on the excitement

[Brownie19]

Isn’t this exactly how AA operated in 2015??? Worked fairly well.

 

Bring on the excitement

 

That's a pretty fair point...

[Spanky99]

You don’t think Atkins has done a decent job?

 

Welcome to the dark side 🤝

 

The mistakes started after '21. He did everything right up to that point.

[MikeM3]

Crazy the White Sox are gonna end up with Bannister for pitching and Ecker for hitting. Another team poised to pass us by stumbling on good dev from sheer luck. Led by reinsdorf and Getz lmao

[Brownie19]

Crazy the White Sox are gonna end up with Bannister for pitching and Ecker for hitting. Another team poised to pass us by stumbling on good dev from sheer luck. Led by reinsdorf and Getz lmao

 

How do you know that Bannister and Ecker are "good" and "ahead of the curve"? What's this opinion based on? I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'm certainly curious how you're so firm with this opinion.

[jaysblue]

Isn’t this exactly how AA operated in 2015??? Worked fairly well.

 

Bring on the excitement

 

AA traded for Donaldson and signed Russell Martin to that 5-year deal prior to the 2015 season. He never really went on a crazy spending spree or scorched earth during the offseason.

 

At the trade deadline, different story. Went after David Price, Tulo, Ben Revere, Latroy Hawkins and Mark Lowe.

 

Jays don't really have the assets like they did in 2015 to acquire big pieces at the trade deadline. Atkins will have to spend his way pretty much to add wins for 2025.

[jaysblue]

The mistakes started after '21. He did everything right up to that point.

 

Atkins still made some good moves in 2022 and 2023. The Chapman trade was great and he still made some great FA signings in Gausman & Kikuchi that offseason. The following offseason, Brandon Belt and KK were solid signings.

 

I think Atkins biggest mistakes were a misjudgment in roster construction. Like for example, the 2021 team lacked a very good bullpen which cost them from making the Playoffs by one game. In 2022, it was awful defense. In 2023, it was the lack of punch in the lineup after going too heavily on defensive minded players. In 2024, it was some poor FA signings (outside of IKF) along with the weak farm system being exposed when they lost a lot of BP arms or other players to injuries.

 

Atkins has been so/so during his tenure here. He's done some things very well but has also done some things very poorly. It's been mediocre overall, which is a fair assessment.