General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Terminator]

Of interest:

 

YEAR WS WINNER K% RANKING

 

2015 Kansas City 1st

2016 Chicago 15th

2017 Houston 1st

2018 Boston 3rd

2019 Washington 5th

2020 Los Angeles 3rd

2021 Atlanta 22nd

2022 Houston 2nd

2023 Texas 15th

 

To be fair, he didn't say home runs weren't important or didn't matter. He said "In today's game, you have to be cognizant of strikeouts when you add power." Also says contact is "exceptionally important" in the playoffs, so "not as simple as plug in a power bat" unless they're versatile.

 

I don't think there's any doubt that home runs play a bit role in the playoffs, but it's often about getting hot at the right time and hitting home runs at the right time. Maybe those big power, 30% K rate guys do give you a better shot of getting hot and going on a tear in the playoffs? Beats me, but I certainly wouldn't call that 'concrete evidence'.

 

Wow, those K numbers are interesting. 6 out of the last 9 were Top 5 in K rate. And only one below average K rate team has won the WS.

[The Cats Ass]

MLB Trade Rumors has their projected arb values out

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2025.html

 

Here are the Jays:

 

 

 

Based on those numbers I'd dump Cabrera, Pop and Tate and keep everyone else.

 

I'd like to see them keep Cabrera. From Apr 12 to Sep 21 he had a 2.25 ERA.

[glory]

Wow, those K numbers are interesting. 6 out of the last 9 were Top 5 in K rate. And only one below average K rate team has won the WS.

 

The Jays have been pretty good with K% over the last few years. The 2021 team in particular, though skewed due to the ball parks, ranked 1st in HR/ISO and 2nd in K% (man, that team not making the playoffs hurt badly). Even the 2022 wasn't bad in both areas. It was 2023-24 when the bottom started falling out, especially 2024. The Jays have routinely been at about 20% K% since 2021 every year. They just haven't been able to develop power hitters or acquire them recently. I don't know if the dimension changes factor in here either, maybe or maybe not. Although 2024 wasn't the dimensions, as there isn't a drug in the world strong enough to convince anyone that KK/IKF/JT was going to add thump to the lineup.

 

The FA available that is the best combination of low K's and good power is Bregman, so if this is Ross' 2015 AA moment, then that's probably his target.

[Stangstag]

Of interest:

 

YEAR WS WINNER K% RANKING

 

2015 Kansas City 1st

2016 Chicago 15th

2017 Houston 1st

2018 Boston 3rd

2019 Washington 5th

2020 Los Angeles 3rd

2021 Atlanta 22nd

2022 Houston 2nd

2023 Texas 15th

 

To be fair, he didn't say home runs weren't important or didn't matter. He said "In today's game, you have to be cognizant of strikeouts when you add power." Also says contact is "exceptionally important" in the playoffs, so "not as simple as plug in a power bat" unless they're versatile.

 

I don't think there's any doubt that home runs play a bit role in the playoffs, but it's often about getting hot at the right time and hitting home runs at the right time. Maybe those big power, 30% K rate guys do give you a better shot of getting hot and going on a tear in the playoffs? Beats me, but I certainly wouldn't call that 'concrete evidence'.

 

That is fairly interesting, I guess it makes sense.

 

But also, if you do the same thing and look at the top HR-hitting teams, all of the WS winners from the past 4 years are top 5.

[John_Havok]

The Jays have been pretty good with K% over the last few years. The 2021 team in particular, though skewed due to the ball parks, ranked 1st in HR/ISO and 2nd in K% (man, that team not making the playoffs hurt badly). Even the 2022 wasn't bad in both areas. It was 2023-24 when the bottom started falling out, especially 2024. The Jays have routinely been at about 20% K% since 2021 every year. They just haven't been able to develop power hitters or acquire them recently. I don't know if the dimension changes factor in here either, maybe or maybe not. Although 2024 wasn't the dimensions, as there isn't a drug in the world strong enough to convince anyone that KK/IKF/JT was going to add thump to the lineup.

 

The FA available that is the best combination of low K's and good power is Bregman, so if this is Ross' 2015 AA moment, then that's probably his target.

 

I think Soto is a better combo of low Ks with power since the power is decidedly better, and k rate only like 3% worse.

 

May as well sign them both I guess.

[Brownie19]

That is fairly interesting, I guess it makes sense.

 

But also, if you do the same thing and look at the top HR-hitting teams, all of the WS winners from the past 4 years are top 5.

 

I think the reality is that guys who have power and don't strike out are just really good hitters and having really good hitters makes you a better ball club. It's not as simple as adding a bunch of high ISO, 30%+ K rate guys, nor can you just add a bunch of Ernie Clements. I can see it both ways. Those high K rate guys can be streaky and you just need them to get hot at right time and rip some homers. Instant offense with one swing of the bat can be huge. The downfall is the pitching is better in the playoffs, so that 30% K rate likely increases to 35-40% v. top pitching every night. If they don't get hot, they kill your chances of manufacturing runs and the swing and miss reduces the BABIP possibilities.

 

On the flipside, if you have guys that put the ball in play, it gives you a chance for the BABIP god to shine down upon you. It also gives you the opportunity to manufacture some runs or score in errors and such. But again, that's harder to do v. top pitching every night and with this approach, you may still need to string together multiple hits to score runs (although perhaps the increased bases and resurgence of the SB will help counteract this?).

 

I'm not sure there's one definitive answer...

Edited October 2, 2024 by Brownie19

[glory]

I think Soto is a better combo of low Ks with power since the power is decidedly better, and k rate only like 3% worse.

 

May as well sign them both I guess.

 

I wasn't even thinking of Soto when I said that as I don't think there's a chance in hell he signs with the Jays, but yes Soto would obviously be the prize (K rate or not). I was just looking at the more realistic FAs (meaning, everyone other than Soto).

[Jays24]

Bregman and Teo it is. Sucks because we could have signed Teo to a good 2/3 year deal last year but now will probably have to overpay after the season he just had.

 

This team needs to add 2 hitters to fit into their top 4 with Springer moving to the 5/6 spot. Anything less is just a waste of everyone's time. Hope these douches use common sense so we don't have a repeat of last years off-season.

[Spanky99]

I'm not sure there's one definitive answer...

 

There never really is in baseball, far to many variables. Hah!

[Jays24]

Masai is black and AA is "ethnic white". Pasty caker white boys with glasses stay at Rogers forever. This is that whole institutional racism thing that you hear about, except it only counts when middle class blue collar men are the perceived benefactors.

 

 

Aligns with MAGA Rogers lol.

[Spanky99]

I wasn't even thinking of Soto when I said that as I don't think there's a chance in hell he signs with the Jays, but yes Soto would obviously be the prize (K rate or not). I was just looking at the more realistic FAs (meaning, everyone other than Soto).

 

Why do you think it's so cut and dry that Soto's unrealistic?

 

He's going to a team that pays him the most, Toronto has a shot.

[Stangstag]

I think the reality is that guys who have power and don't strike out are just really good hitters and having really good hitters makes you a better ball club. It's not as simple as adding a bunch of high ISO, 30%+ K rate guys, nor can you just add a bunch of Ernie Clements. I can see it both ways. Those high K rate guys can be streaky and you just need them to get hot at right time and rip some homers. Instant offense with one swing of the bat can be huge. The downfall is the pitching is better in the playoffs, so that 30% K rate likely increases to 35-40% v. top pitching every night. If they don't get hot, they kill your chances of manufacturing runs and the swing and miss reduces the BABIP possibilities.

 

On the flipside, if you have guys that put the ball in play, it gives you a chance for the BABIP god to shine down upon you. It also gives you the opportunity to manufacture some runs or score in errors and such. But again, that's harder to do v. top pitching every night and with this approach, you may still need to string together multiple hits to score runs (although perhaps the increased bases and resurgence of the SB will help counteract this?).

 

I'm not sure there's one definitive answer...

 

Yeah thats what i was thinking too.

 

I guess it just SEEMS to me, anecdotally, that the last several years of playoffs have been decided by big homeruns and not stringing 2-3 hits together multiple times a game.

 

To me personally it just seems the front office has been behind on things. Especially hearing that comment about "low-hanging fruit" when speaking about adding a power bat.... its like there's a group of nerds that want to prove how smart they are and purposely go against the grain. Which in turn means they end up using outdated thinking/methods to be different.

 

Basically what im saying is they are TRYING to be the Rays, but failing and they've actually more closely resembled organizations like the Whitesox/Twins/Mets

[Stangstag]

Bregman and Teo it is. Sucks because we could have signed Teo to a good 2/3 year deal last year but now will probably have to overpay after the season he just had.

 

This team needs to add 2 hitters to fit into their top 4 with Springer moving to the 5/6 spot. Anything less is just a waste of everyone's time. Hope these douches use common sense so we don't have a repeat of last years off-season.

 

I could realistically see something like Santander + Bregman. Would leave a lot of room for pitching but it would be doable.

 

However based on recent comments and overall direction, I think a more likely scenario would be something like a Kepler/Oneill signing + Ha Seong Kim , or a trade for Arenado.

[Laika]

There is evidence that contact matters a bit more in the playoffs than the regular season. Sabermetric evidence. I don't have it, but I have heard of it.

 

It's also common sense. Pitching quality is way higher, runs are lower in games that matter when elite SP are on the bump, so a lot of times the game is decided on putting the ball in play or slapping a single.

[Stangstag]

There is evidence that contact matters a bit more in the playoffs than the regular season. Sabermetric evidence. I don't have it, but I have heard of it.

 

It's also common sense. Pitching quality is way higher, runs are lower in games that matter when elite SP are on the bump, so a lot of times the game is decided on putting the ball in play or slapping a single.

 

But then wouldn't a homerun be more valuable?? It takes 3 singles to score a run. Potentially 2 if the runner can steal 2nd of gets moved over. Or a combo of singles + walks. A homerun is an automatic 1 run, and more if there's a runner on base with a walk for example.

 

Obviously you'd take a lineup with less k% if you could. But if its a choice between lower K% or higher HR% i'd pick the higher HR% every time.

[glory]

Why do you think it's so cut and dry that Soto's unrealistic?

 

He's going to a team that pays him the most, Toronto has a shot.

 

I don't think Rogers will significantly outbid both the Yankees and Mets/Cohen, which is what it will take. If the contracts are close then I'm guessing Soto will prefer staying in NY.

 

Soto is more realistic than Ohtani (who clearly preferred the West Coast/LA while Soto is probably more a $$ guy) but I'd still call it a massive long shot at best.

[Laika]

But then wouldn't a homerun be more valuable?? It takes 3 singles to score a run. Potentially 2 if the runner can steal 2nd of gets moved over. Or a combo of singles + walks. A homerun is an automatic 1 run, and more if there's a runner on base with a walk for example.

 

Obviously you'd take a lineup with less k% if you could. But if its a choice between lower K% or higher HR% i'd pick the higher HR% every time.

 

Well, that would be the exact question that the sabermetric evidence examines.

 

I guess the high K%, high HR% players are just more often neutralized by higher level pitchers. Something like that.

 

Like, these elite SP are giving up like 0.5 homers per nine innings. Elite relievers, even less (some of them go all season with giving up one or no homers).

 

Over a big enough sample, yes the homers will happen and they have big impact but in a short series the ability to put the ball in play and get lucky can help tip the odds in your favour. A little bit. Just a little bit, probably.

[G-Snarls]

There is evidence that contact matters a bit more in the playoffs than the regular season. Sabermetric evidence. I don't have it, but I have heard of it.

 

It's also common sense. Pitching quality is way higher, runs are lower in games that matter when elite SP are on the bump, so a lot of times the game is decided on putting the ball in play or slapping a single.

 

Yeah, when you're not using your 4th/5th starter, nor your ~ 3 worst bullpen arms it changes things a lot

[Spanky99]

I don't think Rogers will significantly outbid both the Yankees and Mets/Cohen, which is what it will take. If the contracts are close then I'm guessing Soto will prefer staying in NY.

 

Soto is more realistic than Ohtani (who clearly preferred the West Coast/LA while Soto is probably more a $$ guy) but I'd still call it a massive long shot at best.

 

Fair enough, Toronto will certainly be in that fight, or at least jacking that contract up on the Yankees.

[jaysblue]

You need a bit of a balance. Can't just rely on a lineup of all low K% guys and slap hitters. Need some guys with some pop, even if they have a bit higher K rates.

 

Like against an ace pitcher, if you have a lineup full of contact guys, you still need three singles to score a run. Do you expect to get three singles in a row against an ace type of pitcher? Most of the time when an ace pitcher allows runs, it on a mistake that heads to the seats. Unless they are off where they give up a string of hits and walks etc.

[Olerud363]

There is evidence that contact matters a bit more in the playoffs than the regular season. Sabermetric evidence. I don't have it, but I have heard of it.

 

It's also common sense. Pitching quality is way higher, runs are lower in games that matter when elite SP are on the bump, so a lot of times the game is decided on putting the ball in play or slapping a single.

 

Interesting...

 

The configuration of team that hits .245 with 261 homers and 768 runs is the result of optimization under some conditions which have been around for a few years.

 

If the pitching gets so good that the 35% k-rate guys no longer function (they break like Gallo) then maybe the .255 hitting team with 165 homers and 700 runs comes back.

 

Some evidence (low sample size) of this trend in Blue Jays land

 

Loperfido, Barger, Schneider - in very sad .190 250 .340 with 300 ks or something per 700 PAs state

 

Clemente, Howritz, Wagner - in better .260 .340 .400 or something state

[Dick_Pole]

Wasn't connor arguing something about big time home run bats being more important in the playoffs in his own connor way last year, and all you guys were ganging up on how stupid he was? Now you are basically arguing the same thing except in nerd speak with evidence and data. And you're complaining the Jays front office being behind in the times!

 

I nominate connor to be the new GM. The team will either be s*** or World Series winners. No in-betweens. Like the Red Sox from a decade ago.

[Spanky99]

Wasn't connor arguing something about big time home run bats being more important in the playoffs in his own connor way last year, and all you guys were ganging up on how stupid he was? Now you are basically arguing the same thing except in nerd speak with evidence and data. And you're complaining the Jays front office being behind in the times!

 

I nominate connor to be the new GM. The team will either be s*** or World Series winners. No in-betweens. Like the Red Sox from a decade ago.

 

Fail. D-

[connorp]

Fail. D-

 

Fail at what? Telling the truth that you’d rather not hear?

[Spanky99]

Fail at what? Telling the truth that you’d rather not hear?

 

Me? Hah, anything you say I get a good chuckle out of, Achmed. I'm sure the context is missed and you were rating players like a Fantasy roster.

[Omar]

I don't think Rogers will significantly outbid both the Yankees and Mets/Cohen, which is what it will take. If the contracts are close then I'm guessing Soto will prefer staying in NY.

 

Soto is more realistic than Ohtani (who clearly preferred the West Coast/LA while Soto is probably more a $$ guy) but I'd still call it a massive long shot at best.

 

Rogers was one the few teams in on Ohtani.

 

Rogers outbid the competition in both dollars and term to sign Russell Martin.

 

Rogers outbid the competition in both dollars and term to sign Springer.

 

Rogers can definitely outbid the competition in both dollars and term to sign Soto (especially if they get the sense that Vladdy may not bite).

 

I wouldn't call it a long shot at all.

 

edit: besides they need an "aircraft carrier" type of player to keep the seats full. A business case can be made to sign both Vladdy and Soto.

[Dick_Pole]

There is nothing inherently wrong with assuming the Jays can sign Soto. No need to be like Krylian who carries this self-hating Canadian bias despite all evidence pointing it to be not true. The Jays sign more than their fair share of top free agents. The problem is getting more than your fair share means getting more than 1 out of every 30 free agents. Or a little more than 3%. Jays probably have a 10% chance of signing Soto or any other free agent. Which puts them at three times above league average and one of the 10 most likely teams to sign him. Problem is a 10% chance of signing him equates to a 90% chance of not signing him.

 

Assuming Bregman plus Soto plus Guerrero long term contract is just so insanely unlikely. Even if that exactly what is needed to bring this club's offense from fringe contender with a window rapidly shutting to likely contender for the rest of this decade.

[glory]

Rogers was one the few teams in on Ohtani.

 

Rogers outbid the competition in both dollars and term to sign Russell Martin.

 

Rogers outbid the competition in both dollars and term to sign Springer.

 

Rogers can definitely outbid the competition in both dollars and term to sign Soto (especially if they get the sense that Vladdy may not bite).

 

I wouldn't call it a long shot at all.

 

edit: besides they need an "aircraft carrier" type of player to keep the seats full. A business case can be made to sign both Vladdy and Soto.

 

Soto might be 4 times what Springer got in total value. It's a different stratosphere, one that doesn't involve significant revenue potential like Ohtani would have brought in (which was likely a major factor in Rogers wanting to do it). No one is denying that Rogers spends on players, but we are talking about the biggest contract in MLB history (once you factor Ohtani's deferrals), and competing directly with the Yankees and Mets. There is a reason the 4th CBT tier is unofficially called the Steve Cohen Tax. Outbidding Cohen for Springer who was in his 30's when signed vs a future HOF at age 25 is night and day.

 

Regardless, signing Bregman is likely not going to be cheap either. If Rogers greenlights signing him, then that would be a significant expenditure as well (one that I don't necessarily want, but could see happening).

[Stangstag]

Wasn't connor arguing something about big time home run bats being more important in the playoffs in his own connor way last year, and all you guys were ganging up on how stupid he was? Now you are basically arguing the same thing except in nerd speak with evidence and data. And you're complaining the Jays front office being behind in the times!

 

I nominate connor to be the new GM. The team will either be s*** or World Series winners. No in-betweens. Like the Red Sox from a decade ago.

 

No, he was saying that defense is overrated and to stack the lineup with Nick Castellanos/Lourdes Gurriel types.

 

Because he plays too much fantasy baseball and thinks that fantasy = life so defense doesn’t matter.

[Krylian]

Who was that woman that asked Mark about a player calling the clubhouse a f***ing shitshow? lol

 

Atkins is indeed back, lmao.

 

Rosie DiManno. She's the female version of Steve Simmonds.