General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Brownie19]

Yeah the lineup should be okay with a couple of decent additions. The problem is the rotation also needs a couple of decent additions and it's not like the team is strong enough to where all of these adds can be modest 1.5 WAR guys. A couple of them need to be 3+ WAR. And then the bullpen needs a complete overhaul and we need a good backup C too.

 

That's all doable if the team spends big this offseason. But the end result for 2025 is an old, expensive wild card contender without a whole lot in the minor league system. And the one thing we do have, a big payroll with lots of flexibility moving forward, is going to be gone with all these FA additions and possible a Vlad extension too.

 

I agree with all of this, which is why I don't think we'll actually compete in 2025. I can see them adding some strategical pieces that may help them give the illusion of competing (fans aren't hard to fool), but we probably need to let the young players play and figure out what we have in 2025. Pouring more money into this team is unlikely to produce the wanted results, nor is it a sustainable approach IMO.

[Terminator]

I agree with all of this, which is why I don't think we'll actually compete in 2025. I can see them adding some strategical pieces that may help them give the illusion of competing (fans aren't hard to fool), but we probably need to let the young players play and figure out what we have in 2025. Pouring more money into this team is unlikely to produce the wanted results, nor is it a sustainable approach IMO.

 

Idk about that. There's a lot of pressure on Shapiro and Atkins. I'm not sure that they can afford to throw some window dressing on the team, tell the fans we are competing, keep expectations high, and then expect to keep their jobs after failing to make the playoffs again.

 

I think they are going to be aggressive this offseason. Not saying they should be, but they have the money and the front office has all the motivation to spend it with their jobs being on the line.

[glory]

Yeah the lineup should be okay with a couple of decent additions. The problem is the rotation also needs a couple of decent additions and it's not like the team is strong enough to where all of these adds can be modest 1.5 WAR guys. A couple of them need to be 3+ WAR. And then the bullpen needs a complete overhaul and we need a good backup C too.

 

That's all doable if the team spends big this offseason. But the end result for 2025 is an old, expensive wild card contender without a whole lot in the minor league system. And the one thing we do have, a big payroll with lots of flexibility moving forward, is going to be gone with all these FA additions and possible a Vlad extension too.

 

One thing the front office seemed reluctant to do the past few years was to sign anyone beyond 2025-26. Even last season when they were dying for offensive upgrades they went with 1 year deals or a relatively cheap 2 year deal for IKF. I doubt they'll realistically be able to fill holes this winter via free agency without accepting a 3-4 (or more) year deal for someone, possibly more than 1 player. It will be interesting to see the types of deals they sign. A front office with job security may be fine with getting the best 1 year deals they can find and then pivoting at the deadline if/when that doesn't work, but a front office that is fighting for their jobs might have different plans.

 

The one thing the Jays really need is impact talent. This past off season was universally considered s*** because there was practically no upside to it, and the floor wasn't even that high (KK/Turner/IKF/Vogelbach). It was just short term 1 WAR filler. If that's their plan for 2025 then they might as well start their sell off in December rather than next July. If they are going to go 2015 AA, then aim as high as possible.

[BTS]

Idk about that. There's a lot of pressure on Shapiro and Atkins. I'm not sure that they can afford to throw some window dressing on the team, tell the fans we are competing, keep expectations high, and then expect to keep their jobs after failing to make the playoffs again.

 

I think they are going to be aggressive this offseason. Not saying they should be, but they have the money and the front office has all the motivation to spend it with their jobs being on the line.

 

Yeah. It's hard to see a situation where Shapiro and Atkins don't feel pressure to actually make the playoffs in 2025. I think we'll see them sell just about everything on the farm that has value (which isn't a whole lot) and some big FA splurges if they can find fits. I think they're desperate, and will make desperation moves.

[G-Snarls]

I used to feel so good about the starting rotation but now I wonder if we even have a legit #1 caliber starter. They probably have to start there but I worry they won't.

[Brownie19]

Idk about that. There's a lot of pressure on Shapiro and Atkins. I'm not sure that they can afford to throw some window dressing on the team, tell the fans we are competing, keep expectations high, and then expect to keep their jobs after failing to make the playoffs again.

 

I think they are going to be aggressive this offseason. Not saying they should be, but they have the money and the front office has all the motivation to spend it with their jobs being on the line.

 

Couple of thoughts:

 

1. Ideally, they'd resolve the Atkins/Shapiro situation. The idea of them making decisions based on being in a lame duck situation isn't good. Will the Jays allow them to sacrifice the future, just for some hail mary attempt to get into the playoffs and save their jobs? They shouldn't.

2. I simply don't think we have enough money available to fill all the holes needed to compete in 2025 - unless we're blowing well past the luxury tax thresholds and I highly doubt that happens. Filling even a couple of the holes in the offense (say 3rd and LF) still leaves needs at catcher, starting pitching and the bullpen. I mean if we "hit" on every signing and some of the young players surprise - then there's a chance we make the playoffs - but the probability of that happening is low. Our farm system isn't good enough to land much in trades either.

[Stangstag]

I hope you all like platoons because the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays could get weird with it.

 

CF - Varsho - might be lightly platooned depending on performance, but his defense will keep him in there most of the time. Clase the backup.

C - Kirk - won't be platooned but will split time with some other C

LF - Loperfido/Schneider/Clase

2B - Wagner/Schneider/Horwitz

DH - Horwitz/Schneider

3B - Clement/Barger

 

Could definitely see it. We're gonna be like the Rays without all the young exciting arms

[Terminator]

Yeah. It's hard to see a situation where Shapiro and Atkins don't feel pressure to actually make the playoffs in 2025. I think we'll see them sell just about everything on the farm that has value (which isn't a whole lot) and some big FA splurges if they can find fits. I think they're desperate, and will make desperation moves.

 

I do think we will see them spend on some risky FAs. Blake Snell seems like the perfect storm for them. He's a big name with some hardware to appease the rabid fans and sports media and he should be pretty damn good next year in their attempt to make the playoffs. Never mind that he might be complete ass in year 3, 4 and 5 of that deal; they simply need to survive 2025 before they worry about that.

 

Tyler O'Neill could be another guy they target. A 4 year deal for that guy as he enters into his 30s sounds like a game of Russian Roulette but he's got 30 homer power and is a big name (in this market anyway) that will get some maple boners going.

 

Then they will be interested in throwing some cherries on top. Expensive guys on short term deals. Kenley Jansen, Scherzer, etc.

 

It'll be a Riccardi 2006-like offseason and the media and fans will love it. It might even get the team back into the WC which would allow them some time to try and revamp their farm system and player development.

[Terminator]

Couple of thoughts:

 

1. Ideally, they'd resolve the Atkins/Shapiro situation. The idea of them making decisions based on being in a lame duck situation isn't good. Will the Jays allow them to sacrifice the future, just for some hail mary attempt to get into the playoffs and save their jobs? They shouldn't.

2. I simply don't think we have enough money available to fill all the holes needed to compete in 2025 - unless we're blowing well past the luxury tax thresholds and I highly doubt that happens. Filling even a couple of the holes in the offense (say 3rd and LF) still leaves needs at catcher, starting pitching and the bullpen. I mean if we "hit" on every signing and some of the young players surprise - then there's a chance we make the playoffs - but the probability of that happening is low. Our farm system isn't good enough to land much in trades either.

 

1. No they shouldn't but all indications are that they are going to let them keep their jobs.

 

2. I tend to be higher on their 2025 then most. And it's not because I love the team but it's because of the realities of the new playoff format combined with the fact that we can add an additional 50-60 mil in payroll. Almost any team in the league, save for the truly shitbag franchises like the White Sox and Rockies, can compete with an addition 50-60 mil in payroll now. Granted, our best players are about to hit FA and the farm system sucks, so papering over our holes with FAs is just polishing a turd but we can compete in 2025 IMO.

[AMS528]

Yeah. It's hard to see a situation where Shapiro and Atkins don't feel pressure to actually make the playoffs in 2025. I think we'll see them sell just about everything on the farm that has value (which isn't a whole lot) and some big FA splurges if they can find fits. I think they're desperate, and will make desperation moves.

 

Ah the "bare cupboard" approach. I wonder what kind of dressing down 2015 Shapiro would give 2024 Shapiro for the state of it.

 

Also I'm in complete agreement about the rotation. Berrios has been a fringe starter for 2 out of the last 3 seasons so now you have to hope for a good performance from him instead of expecting one. A s***** year from him is no longer the outlier.

 

Man we went at the end of 2022 from a rotation with two number 1 type pitchers (Gausman/Manoah), a very solid potential #3/4 in Berrios and after the Bassit signing, and some combination of Kikuchi/Ryu/White to round it out with the expectation that Tiedemann would possibly be on the way if he had a really good year. Even after Manoah's implosion Kikuchi being very solid papered over that last year and there was still Tiedemann. Now we basically have a good mid rotation, with no certainty on either the back end or at the front end for a 1/2 if Gausman doesn't bounce back.

[glory]

Couple of thoughts:

 

1. Ideally, they'd resolve the Atkins/Shapiro situation. The idea of them making decisions based on being in a lame duck situation isn't good. Will the Jays allow them to sacrifice the future, just for some hail mary attempt to get into the playoffs and save their jobs? They shouldn't.

 

Shapiro's job might be safe based on how Rogers has operated recently, but as far as letting a lame duck sacrifice the future, Rogers has already done that once. They were tampering to find a replacement for Beeston/AA prior to 2015, and still allowed AA to sign Martin, trade for Tulo, etc. I don't think they'd get in Shapiro's way if he were to make some big signings this winter, as long as it fits the agreed upon payroll.

 

With that said, Shapiro and AA are very different. I think Shapiro whether his job is safe or not will still err on the side of caution to some degree with big moves. I don't think he's taking back a Tulo contract just to get as many 2025 wins as possible and not caring about the 5 years after that, for example. Luckily the Jays system is still kinda ass even after a solid trade deadline so I don't think they'd miss anyone if they were to trade them. Maybe Nimmala, but that's it.

[Omar]

I really believe Atkins will be "reassigned" to something else in the organization in the off season. That is the vibe I got from Shapiro 's recent media scrum.

 

I also don't expect them to make any notable additions in terms of starters. Not a tor starter anyway. Wouldn't mind seeing Kuch come back but I think they are content with Gausman/Berrios/Bassitt with some combo of Yrod and TBD. Will Manoah be back by July? I have my doubts.

 

No question they have to present at least the impression that they are fielding a playoff capable team. As it stands only Horwitz seems like an everyday player, all the other Bison guys are suspect. Wonder how they will spin it next year if this team implodes again?

[Krylian]

I really believe Atkins will be "reassigned" to something else in the organization in the off season. That is the vibe I got from Shapiro 's recent media scrum.

 

I also don't expect them to make any notable additions in terms of starters. Not a tor starter anyway. Wouldn't mind seeing Kuch come back but I think they are content with Gausman/Berrios/Bassitt with some combo of Yrod and TBD. Will Manoah be back by July? I have my doubts.

 

No question they have to present at least the impression that they are fielding a playoff capable team. As it stands only Horwitz seems like an everyday player, all the other Bison guys are suspect. Wonder how they will spin it next year if this team implodes again?

 

Unless it's a promotion to a made up VP position or a President roll have we ever seen a GM re-assigned to something lateral or a supposed demotion (scouting)?

 

I think Atkins is gone altogether.

[Omar]

Unless it's a promotion to a made up VP position or a President roll have we ever seen a GM re-assigned to something lateral or a supposed demotion (scouting)?

 

I think Atkins is gone altogether.

 

VP of Strategic Double Speak.

[Laika]

I just can't really see how they fix this. I go through the list of free agents and they all seem like no-chance signings or players that I don't even like.

 

I just don't see how they spend $50M AAV and improve the roster enough, unless they hit on multiple low cost signings and pillow contracts. Maybe that will be the play. Maybe they won't go after the big guys but they will try to sign 5 bounceback candidates:

 

Buehler, Bieber, Scherzer, Sewald, Goldschmidt, Gleyber, Conforto. Guys like that.

 

I mean how else are they plugging all the holes for $50M other than trying to get lucky multiple times?

[Brownie19]

I just can't really see how they fix this. I go through the list of free agents and they all seem like no-chance signings or players that I don't even like.

 

I just don't see how they spend $50M AAV and improve the roster enough, unless they hit on multiple low cost signings and pillow contracts. Maybe that will be the play. Maybe they won't go after the big guys but they will try to sign 5 bounceback candidates:

 

Buehler, Bieber, Scherzer, Sewald, Goldschmidt, Gleyber, Conforto. Guys like that.

 

I mean how else are they plugging all the holes for $50M other than trying to get lucky multiple times?

 

Thank you - this is what I was trying to articulate. I actually think that's the correct play (whether a lame duck GM will take this approach or not). You could certainly sell the fans on several of those FA signings. If lots of those guys rebound, you may have a playoff team. If they don't, you're not tied to many long term deals. If some of them do, but you're not making the playoffs anyway, you can sell them all as rentals and stock the farm system. Do that, while keeping enough space on the roster to see what you have in the Buffalo crew...

[Terminator]

Give me 50 million bucks and I'll whip this team into a Wild Card contender in about 2 minutes.

 

Actually I just DFA'd Romano and Swanson so now I have 65 mil.

 

Snell for 5 years, 28 mil AAV

Santander 4 years, 20 mil

Backup Catcher (doesn't matter who, any shitbag will do) for 1 year, 3 mil

Jose LeClerc 3 years, 8 mil

Blake Treinen 1 year, 5 mil

Trade some of the excess Buffalo Boys for a couple of relievers

If there's anything left over sign another reliever to a 1 year deal

 

And there you have it. An 87 win wild card team and a first round playoff exit. Easy stuff.

[Laika]

Give me 50 million bucks and I'll whip this team into a Wild Card contender in about 2 minutes.

 

Actually I just DFA'd Romano and Swanson so now I have 65 mil.

 

Snell for 5 years, 28 mil AAV

Santander 4 years, 20 mil

Backup Catcher (doesn't matter who, any shitbag will do) for 1 year, 3 mil

Jose LeClerc 3 years, 8 mil

Blake Treinen 1 year, 5 mil

Trade some of the excess Buffalo Boys for a couple of relievers

If there's anything left over sign another reliever to a 1 year deal

 

And there you have it. An 87 win wild card team and a first round playoff exit. Easy stuff.

 

I am going to be sick

[Orgfiller]

I just can't really see how they fix this. I go through the list of free agents and they all seem like no-chance signings or players that I don't even like.

 

I just don't see how they spend $50M AAV and improve the roster enough, unless they hit on multiple low cost signings and pillow contracts. Maybe that will be the play. Maybe they won't go after the big guys but they will try to sign 5 bounceback candidates:

 

Buehler, Bieber, Scherzer, Sewald, Goldschmidt, Gleyber, Conforto. Guys like that.

 

I mean how else are they plugging all the holes for $50M other than trying to get lucky multiple times?

 

Bieber for like a 2/$40-50M deal would be a dream, not sure if that's realistic though, and for a team that's on the low end of contention he might not even want to come here to have his bounceback. Maybe 1/20 deal with a player option for 2/60 for the next two seasons after that could get it done, but the risk is major with a relatively low reward if he's not fully healthy by May 2025.

 

Buehler would be nice on a pillow deal, Gleyber you'll probably need some opt out laden contract to convince him.

[L54]

I am predicting 92 wins next year

 

Healthy Bo, a fresh start for George, Albert Pujols is now our first baseman and we can sign Antony Santander and Devin Williams

[jaysblue]

I do think we will see them spend on some risky FAs. Blake Snell seems like the perfect storm for them. He's a big name with some hardware to appease the rabid fans and sports media and he should be pretty damn good next year in their attempt to make the playoffs. Never mind that he might be complete ass in year 3, 4 and 5 of that deal; they simply need to survive 2025 before they worry about that.

 

Tyler O'Neill could be another guy they target. A 4 year deal for that guy as he enters into his 30s sounds like a game of Russian Roulette but he's got 30 homer power and is a big name (in this market anyway) that will get some maple boners going.

 

Then they will be interested in throwing some cherries on top. Expensive guys on short term deals. Kenley Jansen, Scherzer, etc.

 

It'll be a Riccardi 2006-like offseason and the media and fans will love it. It might even get the team back into the WC which would allow them some time to try and revamp their farm system and player development.

 

The way Snell has pitched lately, he likely gets a 4-5 year deal north of $100M. Would rather spend the extra money to sign Burnes, or bring back Kikuchi on less years. Also, would try to sign Bieber to a 2-year deal with a high AAV, even if he misses the first two-three months of 2025.

 

Tyler O'Neill should have been targeted last offseason. Regardless, I don't see him getting a 4-year deal given what we saw the market was like for corner OF's and DH's last offseason. Maybe a two-year deal or at most he gets something similar to Jorge Soler. O'Neill or Pederson would be great targets for LF/DH.

 

Kenley Jansen likely doesn't sign here, neither does Scherzer if he decides to pitch again next season.

 

Try and make a trade with the Oakland A's for either Brent Rooker or Mason Miller or both.

[jaysblue]

1. No they shouldn't but all indications are that they are going to let them keep their jobs.

 

2. I tend to be higher on their 2025 then most. And it's not because I love the team but it's because of the realities of the new playoff format combined with the fact that we can add an additional 50-60 mil in payroll. Almost any team in the league, save for the truly shitbag franchises like the White Sox and Rockies, can compete with an addition 50-60 mil in payroll now. Granted, our best players are about to hit FA and the farm system sucks, so papering over our holes with FAs is just polishing a turd but we can compete in 2025 IMO.

 

I also agree that with an active offseason and a couple of swift moves, the Jays could field a contending team in 2025.

[Omar]

I also agree that with an active offseason and a couple of swift moves, the Jays could field a contending team in 2025.

 

Thanks Ross.

[Terminator]

The way Snell has pitched lately, he likely gets a 4-5 year deal north of $100M. Would rather spend the extra money to sign Burnes, or bring back Kikuchi on less years. Also, would try to sign Bieber to a 2-year deal with a high AAV, even if he misses the first two-three months of 2025.

 

Tyler O'Neill should have been targeted last offseason. Regardless, I don't see him getting a 4-year deal given what we saw the market was like for corner OF's and DH's last offseason. Maybe a two-year deal or at most he gets something similar to Jorge Soler. O'Neill or Pederson would be great targets for LF/DH.

 

Kenley Jansen likely doesn't sign here, neither does Scherzer if he decides to pitch again next season.

 

Try and make a trade with the Oakland A's for either Brent Rooker or Mason Miller or both.

 

Yeah I don't think they should do moves like this but if they really do want to win the WS they will need to swing for the fences in FA and hit some home runs. Signing Snell and getting 5 WAR out of him next year before he implodes, trying to get a 30 homer season out of O'Neill before his roid-addled muscles tear off the bone, going over the luxury tax on 1 year deals for expensive and old pitchers, etc. are the types of things that I think they could consider.

 

You are kind of argumentative toward me in your post (granted, you'd probably argue with me if I said the sky was blue so it could just be your posting style) but I don't recommend these moves, to be clear, so I think we are mostly on the same page.

[jaysblue]

Yeah I don't think they should do moves like this but if they really do want to win the WS they will need to swing for the fences in FA and hit some home runs. Signing Snell and getting 5 WAR out of him next year before he implodes, trying to get a 30 homer season out of O'Neill before his roid-addled muscles tear off the bone, going over the luxury tax on 1 year deals for expensive and old pitchers, etc. are the types of things that I think they could consider.

 

You are kind of argumentative toward me in your post (granted, you'd probably argue with me if I said the sky was blue so it could just be your posting style) but I don't recommend these moves, to be clear, so I think we are mostly on the same page.

 

Don't mean to sound argumentative haha if it came across the way. But yeah for the most part, I think we both agree and are on the same page that they would have to spend a lot and have a busy offseason in order to get back into contention. I think if they make some big moves, along with a Bo rebound, Springer playing like he has over the last 2 months and Vlad playing at an elite level like he has, under the current WC format, this team could contend over the 162 game season.

 

- Definitely gotta sign a No. 1/2 starter which is a must.

- Need to sign two big bats with pop for LF and DH. If not Soto, there are plenty of options like Santander, O"Neill, Pederson, Teo, Conforto, Kepler, Goldschmidt, Christian Walker.

- Need to add at least two solid bullpen arms with high K/9 rates.

- 3B: either roll with Clement or make a trade for someone like McMahon or Baty. I don't think there would be enough in the payroll to sign either Chapman or Bregman.

[The_DH]

2-3 good moves would put them into contention it just doesn't look too likely that top free agents will want to sign here. Two big problems: 1. we don't have a great team so not a lot of demand to come here and 2. Taxes are f'ing high so Toronto would have to pay even more just to stay even with other teams. Same as last year.

[glory]

I just can't really see how they fix this. I go through the list of free agents and they all seem like no-chance signings or players that I don't even like.

 

I just don't see how they spend $50M AAV and improve the roster enough, unless they hit on multiple low cost signings and pillow contracts. Maybe that will be the play. Maybe they won't go after the big guys but they will try to sign 5 bounceback candidates:

 

Buehler, Bieber, Scherzer, Sewald, Goldschmidt, Gleyber, Conforto. Guys like that.

 

I mean how else are they plugging all the holes for $50M other than trying to get lucky multiple times?

 

They are going to have to trust at least a couple of young players to fill those holes next season. They simply can’t fill all of them externally. Best bet based on performance, age, and nepotism is Horwitz at DH and Wagner at 2B. If you assume those two spots are filled then you would turn your attention to LF, 3B, and catcher on the position player end. It’s harder to do that on the pitching side since they don’t have any young players who can fill those spots. Maybe Bloss but he probably needs more minor league seasoning. At least Francis is going to get a good look the rest of the way. Maybe they get lucky with him.

[connorp]

Gleyber is going to be FA? Not that he’s good that just seems like a quick 6 years. Getting old

[AMS528]

Feel like most of the shine is off of Davis Schneider now. He's still only going to be 26 next year, but there's some strong Cavan Bigigo vibes there. Unless he has a strong end of the year can't imagine he's got more than a utility role going into next year.

 

We've probably got a few too many infield utility player types, Clement/Jimenez/Schneider/Barger all fall into that category, and now we've got Wagner as well. At some point Orelvis will be up post suspension. I want to see them stick with Horwitz at 2B cause I've got more faith in his bat there. Barger is still entirely a question mark and Jimenez hasn't shown much. If we're lucky one of those guys can be a starter for a while and my money is on Horwitz.

 

If we trade Bo and sign/trade for a replacement or if we decide to stick with Bo then we definitely should be seeing what reliever we can get for some of our utility pieces. Clement's had the strongest showing so far as a bench piece I think.

[Laika]

Feel like most of the shine is off of Davis Schneider now. He's still only going to be 26 next year, but there's some strong Cavan Bigigo vibes there. Unless he has a strong end of the year can't imagine he's got more than a utility role going into next year.

 

We've probably got a few too many infield utility player types, Clement/Jimenez/Schneider/Barger all fall into that category, and now we've got Wagner as well. At some point Orelvis will be up post suspension. I want to see them stick with Horwitz at 2B cause I've got more faith in his bat there. Barger is still entirely a question mark and Jimenez hasn't shown much. If we're lucky one of those guys can be a starter for a while and my money is on Horwitz.

 

If we trade Bo and sign/trade for a replacement or if we decide to stick with Bo then we definitely should be seeing what reliever we can get for some of our utility pieces. Clement's had the strongest showing so far as a bench piece I think.

 

Yeah Schneider has kind of blown his big chance. He's a weak side platoon player now (or bench player) without much defensive utility.

 

I don't know if they have so much depth that they should go trading guys for relievers, though. Most of these guys still have options. For example, if they sign a 3B and LF this is how it could shake down out of camp:

 

Horwitz - DH

Wagner - 2B

LF - Mr. Outside Hire

3B - Mr. Outside Hire

 

Leo Jimenez - on the bench, covers all infield spots (no options)

Loperfido - on the bench, covers all OF spots (options)

Clement - on the bench, covers all infield spots and is a viable hitter / fringe starter (no options)

 

Barger - AAA (options)

Schneider - AAA (options)

Martinez - AAA (options)